Has Demarcus Robinson surpassed TuTu Atwell in Rams wide receiver room?

Over the past two years, it’s finally seemed like it might be TuTu Atwell’s time to shine for the Los Angeles Rams. However, after the emergence of Demarcus Robinson in the middle of last season, that simply hasn’t been the case. Atwell has seemingly once again fallen down the depth chart and 2024 looks like it may be his last in Los Angeles.

Following a disappointing rookie season in 2021, Atwell found moments in 2022 that gave reason for excitement. From Weeks 11-18 in 2022 without Cooper Kupp on the field due to injury, Atwell was second on the team in receiving yards behind Van Jefferson. With competent quarterback play down the stretch, it’s likely that his 298 yards would have been closer to the 500 mark. In fact, for the 2022 season, outside of Kupp, Atwell led Rams receivers with 1.53 yards per route run.

With Kupp out once again to start the 2023 season, Atwell rose to the occasion. During the first four weeks of the season, Atwell had 270 yards receiving with 1.56 yards per route run which trailed only Puka Nacua. However, by midseason Atwell had almost been completely phased out of the offense.

In Weeks 1-11, Atwell was solidly the team’s number three wide receiver as he played 65 percent or more of the snaps on offense in every single game. It felt like Atwell was starting to find his place. The Rams were getting him free releases with the use of motion much like the Miami Dolphins do with Tyreek Hill. Atwell was even getting involved in the run game, showing effectiveness as a blocker. From Week 12 to the Wild Card game in Detroit, Atwell played in less than 40 percent of the snaps on offense in every game except the Week 18 contest against the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, outside of the 49ers game, Atwell played in less than 15 percent of the offensive snaps from Week 13 on.

It’s certainly possible that Atwell’ concussion suffered against the Baltimore Ravens played a role in this. However, another explanation is the emergence of Demarcus Robinson. Signed right before training camp, Robinson was brought in to add some veteran depth the wide receiver room. Almost immediately Robinson was considered a standout. At the time, The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue considered Robinson a ‘riser’ and reported,

“In Rams camp, Robinson immediately popped as a receiver and when blocking in the run game. He has also been praised behind the scenes by teammates and assistant coaches for how well his personality fits with the group.”

While the connection between Robinson and Stafford wasn’t immediate, it finally picked up at the midseason point. Robinson went from not playing to playing in nearly 60 percent of the team’s snaps on offense from Week 12 until the end of the season. Again, the only exception here was the finale against the 49ers.

The Rams passing offense with Robinson went from averaging -0.003 EPA per play with a 42.1 percent success rate in Weeks 1-11 to averaging 0.247 EPA per play with a 50.7 percent success rate in Weeks 12-17 and the wild card game.

To put it simply, Robinson helped make the Rams offense more efficient. In half as many routes, Robinson had 16.7 total EPA to Atwell’s 15.2. Robinson’s 1.24 expected yards per route run led Rams receivers and his 1.66 yards per route run trailed only Nacua and Kupp.

One of the largest draws of Atwell is his speed and success down the field. However, Robinson’s 13.2 yards in average depth of target also led Atwell’s 11.5.

This isn’t meant as a knock on Atwell. There’s no doubt that the former second-round pick has shown positive moments. Whether it’s fit in the offense, a difference in vision for the offense since he was drafted, or other reasons unknown, Atwell has seemingly never been able to gain traction within the team.

With that said, Robinson helped change the offense. According to ESPN Tracking Metrics, Robinson was the most open wide receiver on the Rams last year with an open score of 57 and his catch score of 73 also led the team. It’s very possible that the Rams go with a WR3a and WR3b situation with Robinson and Atwell. Atwell still has some value on the roster and shown that he can be a capable receiver.

From reports during OTAs Robinson has picked up where he left off According to Rodrigue,

“Among the receivers, veteran Demarcus Robinson has looked like he’s aging in reverse over these past few weeks — and the rapport he established with Stafford through the latter half of last season seems to have carried over.”

Between Robinson’s connection with Stafford and the fact that he has proven that he is someone that can be trusted by McVay in the offense, he has likely surpassed Atwell on the depth chart and in the receiver room.

Again, that doesn’t mean that Atwell can’t still have an impact. Still, it’s another case of the Rams not having a development plan for a player and now having to live with those results. The bust label for Atwell seems harsh and unfair to the player. When he’s been asked to perform and step into a larger role, he’s done just that. We’ll have to see what role Atwell has in 2024, but if things remain how they were towards the end of last season, Demarcus Robinson may get a bulk of the looks.