Is WR the most overpaid position?

The Los Angeles Rams might end up having the best wide receiver duo in the NFL this year. The 2021 Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP teaming up with the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year and all-time record-setter.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will not be far apart on the field this season, and yet in some ways they are still separated by oceans:

In the next three years, Kupp is set to make $59 million.

In the next three years, Puka is set to make $3 million.

Though fifth round picks like Puka Nacua are one-in-a-million, the value being extracted from the receiver position around the league as a whole has to have teams second-guessing some of their large extensions to receivers in recent years. Including to Cooper Kupp.

It could also be why the situation between the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk, in which San Francisco doesn’t want to pay him what he wants and yet can’t seem to trade him for what they want either, is going to end up with neither side being all that happy.

Have receivers become the most overvalued position in the NFL?

It would not be fair to compare the top paid players at receiver in the NFL right now based on average annual salary because most of them haven’t played on their new deals yet: In 2024 alone, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman, and Calvin Ridley have all signed new contracts worth over $20 million per season. Jefferson, Brown, and St. Brown are all over $30 million.

We will find out in the future how good those deals are for the team.

The past is not that great.

Last season’s highest paid receiver by cap hit was Amari Cooper at $23.75 million. Cooper is a really good receiver. Did you realize that he was the highest-paid in the league last season though?

Behind Cooper in 2023 cap hit: Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, Courtland Sutton, Cooper Kupp, DIontae Johnson, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Hollywood Brown, Hunter Renfrow, Curtis Samuel.

I’m not omitting names. That’s the entire list.

Would you call that good value?

The Browns, Broncos, Bears, Steelers, Raiders, Saints, Chargers, Cardinals, Raiders, and Commanders had 10 of the worst passing offenses in the NFL. Blaming poor play at other positions only highlights the fact that those teams were paying $13-$23 million for a receiver on an offense that couldn’t move the ball.

(Also, you don’t blame other players for Marquise Brown, Hunter Renfrow, Diontae Johnson, Michael Thomas for being bad values over $13 million.)

The top paid players at receiver in 2024, based just on this season’s cap hit:

Tyreek Hill, Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Adams, Metcalf, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, Cooper, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins (franchise tag), Tyler Lockett, DeAndre Hopkins.

Hill makes sense (we’ll see at what point his career starts to go in the other direction, it will happen before you predict it will happen) but would that be the list you predicted as the most valuable receivers in the NFL right now?

I doubt it.

Among 2023’s best receivers included players on rookie contracts like CeeDee Lamb (waiting for his extension), St. Brown (pre-extension), Puka, Nico Collins (pre-extension), Ja’Marr Chase (waiting for extension), George Pickens, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Aiyuk (waiting).

Teams can look to the draft for receiver help and that’s what they’ve been doing. Rookies with over 600 yards last season included Puka, Rashee Rice, Jordan Addison, Sam LaPorta (TE), Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Dalton Kincaid (TE), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That might not seem like that high of a bar, but we’re talking about getting 40-60 yards per game out of rookies who will be making between $800,000 to a couple of million for their efforts.

Isn’t that a better deal than paying $28 million for 1,200 yards? Especially knowing you might get really lucky, land a receiver like Puka or a weapon like LaPorta.

Do other positions look bad when you only focus on the top contracts and then compare them to the best rookies?

YES! Absolutely.

But I’m not attempting to cherry pick here. I don’t ever intend to ignore contradictory data.

What seems to be different with receivers though, as compared to say offensive tackles or edge rushers, is that you don’t see values at tackle and edge enter the NFL very often. And those values are super hard to find.

And while tight ends or guards or defensive tackles or cornerbacks might be costly, they haven’t been as quick to make the $28-$35 million that high-end receivers do. That’s not that far behind some starting quarterbacks.

The Rams have some tough decisions to make with Kupp in the next year and his contract is certainly playing a part in how L.A. will be able to move forward with him in 2025. They’ll still have Puka at a discount and the Rams can keep taking their shots in the draft for more value.

That’s what teams will always want more than a great player: A great value.