How will Rams wide receiver targets stack up with a healthy Cooper Kupp in 2024?

One of the bigger questions this season for the Los Angeles Rams offense will be how the wide receiver targets stack up with Puka Nacua heading into year two and Cooper Kupp hopefully returning to the field healthy.

While Nacua and Kupp are both selfless players and certainly won’t complain about one getting more targets than the other, it will be something to pay attention to from a fantasy football perspective. The Rams offense is one in which it can be very difficult to predict where the primary target share will go. That was the case when it was Kupp and Robert Woods and it will likely be the case this season as well. Both players are able to find production, but trying to predict which player will have a good game one week to the next can be frustrating from a fantasy perspective.

There are offenses with a Tyreek Hill caliber of player who even with a Jaylen Waddle is going to produce almost every week. With that being said, that’s not the case for every team and offense.

Looking back at 2019, Kupp had seven top-20 weekly finishes, but he also had seven in which he ranked outside the top-25. Kupp finished as the WR4. Meanwhile, Robert Woods also had seven weeks inside the top-20 and six outside the top-25 and finished as the WR14. Having the WR4 or WR14 isn’t a bad thing. However, in weeks that Woods finished as the WR69, WR54, and WR36 in a four week span, it can be difficult to keep that type of player in a fantasy lineup.

That doesn’t mention that Matthew Stafford can tend to ‘lock in’ on one wide receiver. In 2021, Kupp had a 31.7 percent target share and that was 31 percent in 2022. Nacua’s target share last season was 28.7%. Going back to that 2019 season, Woods had a 23.4 percent target share compared to Kupp’s 21.8 percent.

The Athletic

The Rams may only have two players competing for 75+ targets, but depending on the player that Stafford feels he has more of a connection with, it could change how those targets are dispersed.

Larry Holder of The Athletic discussed this and said,

“How will Puka Nacua top his superb Year 1? That might be a tall order. But imagine if his catchable-pass and reception percentages increased by, say, three percent each? Doesn’t sound like much, but even that much movement could be a difference maker. Cooper Kupp’s traditional numbers likely won’t return to where we saw them in 2021, when he was NFL Offensive Player of the Year. He tallied fewer targets last year in 12 games than he amassed in only nine games in 2022. A full, healthy season certainly would bring more looks from Matthew Stafford, though, and Kupp can be productive with the ball in his hands given the range in EPA per target and EPA per reception.”

Right now, Puka Nacua has an ADP of WR9 compared to Kupp’s WR24. Given Kupp’s previous connection with Stafford and the chance for a slight drop-off for Nacua, there could be a lot of value there. The upside for a healthy Kupp is well within the WR20 range whereas Nacua finished as the WR4 in what was a historic year.

It will also depend on how much the Rams plan on utilizing Demarcus Robinson and TuTu Atwell. Robinson finished last year strong and is the currently the third wide receiver in the offense. Said Holder,

“The rest of the Rams’ receiving hierarchy appears pretty set, with Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell figuring into notable playing time. Robinson missed the threshold for this study by one target. That said, he definitely deserves mention, with rates of 0.49 EPA per target and 1.3 EPA per reception.”

Someone like Robinson who is going as the WR83 may have some late upside, but the fantasy conversation at wide receiver for the Rams will revolve around Kupp and Nacua. The question here is whether or not both players can provide consistent production on a weekly basis or if they’ll be eating into each other’s targets and hurt their overall fantasy value.