How Brad Holmes is still helping the Rams by slowing down talks between 49ers, Aiyuk

Brad Holmes spent almost two decades in the Rams front office, but as general manager of the Detroit Lions he is still doing work that helps his old franchise by essentially complicating contract talks between the San Francisco 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk. If Aiyuk is asking for more money than the 49ers are willing to pay him directly because of moves made by Holmes this offseason, it’s another “Thank you” that Les Snead owes his former protégé three years after they swapped Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff.

Could Amon-Ra St. Brown’s $30 million per season deal force the 49ers to trade their number one receiver over a contract dispute?

According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, Aiyuk’s goal is to make as much or more than Amon-Ra St. Brown, who signed a four-year, $120 million contract extension with the Lions this offseason. Pretty much everybody who follows football agrees that St. Brown is a great player, but his $30,002,500 average annual salary (perfectly designed to be $2,500 more than Tyreek Hill) sticks out like a sore thumb as the second-highest mark in the NFL for receivers behind only A.J. Brown at $32 million per season.

If we breakdown St. Brown’s contributions to the Lions through three seasons since being a fourth round pick out of USC in 2021, he’s a catching machine with 315 receptions in 49 games. He also broke out as a yardage and scoring threat in 2023, gaining 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns in 16 games, making first-team All-Pro for the first time in his career.

However, everyone should also agree that St. Brown is in an ideal situation as Detroit’s slot receiver and getting fed the ball so consistently in a Jared Goff/Ben Johnson play action offense that favors a short and intermediate threat over a deep threat given that Goff’s not exactly known for stretching the field. The high-percentage shots between Goff and St. Brown have not been stopped by most NFL defenses recently, but now the Lions have a huge target on their back and it will be fascinating to see how Johnson adjusts to those adjustments.

St. Brown is playing like a top-10 pick, but he’s still the 5’11, 197 lb, 4.51 player he was coming out of college, the main reasons he dropped to day three.

None of which is meant to imply that Amon-Ra St. Brown doesn’t belong in the conversation as a top-10 receiver. That’s a fair ranking for him.

The problem for the 49ers and general manager John Lynch is that Brandon Aiyuk (and sometimes Deebo Samuel, for that matter) will have a great argument for why they deserve to be paid more than St. Brown. If Aiyuk were weighing his contributions against Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, he’d be shit out of luck. If they were the ones being paid $30 million per season, Aiyuk knows he’d probably get less.

Instead, Jefferson and Chase will be arguing for at least $33 million per season—more than A.J. Brown—and Aiyuk is trying to slide his contract in between St. Brown and those top-tier receivers.

It’s a problem that John Lynch doesn’t want to have right now with other high profile players due extensions in the next 24 months, including quarterback Brock Purdy. This despite the fact that St. Brown’s “$30 million per season” mark is misleading.

That’s another “Thank you” to Brad Holmes.

Though St. Brown makes $30 million per season, he only has $34.6 million in FULL guarantees on the entire deal. It is unlikely that the Lions would part ways with St. Brown after one season, but they do have to make a decision before his entire $27.5 million 2025 base salary becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2025 league year. These sort of rolling guarantees have become quite common in the NFL, ultimately St. Brown’s contract is only as good as the $34 million he made at signing and he’ll have an uphill battle to earn his contract after 2025 because Detroit gets over $23 million in cap savings in 2026.

Lists like this one simply show St. Brown having a $77 million guarantee, but that’s “guaranteed money, IF” which is far from the same as being guaranteed.

Last season, Brandon Aiyuk had 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games and he made second-team All-Pro. He is also well-respected as a blocker, which you have to be in the 49ers offense. Despite having a lot fewer catches and fewer yards and touchdowns than St. Brown, Aiyuk’s fighting for a better contract because he’s perceived as being a bigger threat—probably only because he was a first round pick.

But perception is everything in NFL contract negotiations.

If Aiyuk’s camp is asking for a three-year, $100 million contract that tops A.J. Brown’s three-year, $96 million deal with the Eagles, it could be the final straw in sending Aiyuk packing to another team in a trade. That would leave Kyle Shanahan’s offense with Deebo and rookie first round pick Ricky Pearsall, in addition to Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. Still a dangerous looking offense in 2024, but not necessarily one built for 2025 and 2026.

Kittle is 31 this season, McCaffrey is 28, and Deebo is 28 going on 58. Trent Williams is turning 36 in July.

Aiyuk is 26, the youngest of that bunch.

But it will be hard for Lynch to pay Aiyuk a bigger-than-Amon-Ra sized contract and keep everyone else happy. Once again, we say thank you Brad. Keep on spending.