Steve Avila index projection

In a prior fanpost regarding offensive line index metrics, I just eyeballed a target goal of 115 points for Avila to hit as a rookie. How often do rookie NFL interior offensive linemen actually reach that mark? To remind you of the scale, Coleman Shelton scored 98 last season, Austin Corbett has averaged about 135 lately and Zack Martin has averaged 155 with his best years being about 170. So, I'd suggest that anything below 100 isn't good enough for an NFL starter, while maybe 125 or better would be a good starter.

We only have data starting in 2016. Several draftees aren't included, because they either got injured or were just backups as rookies and didn't start enough games. The list is ordered from the lowest (worst) score to the highest score. Not all of them played guard as rookies, but I tried to include "guard type" players, even if they played center or tackle that year.

Kenyon Green (2022, 1st round) 47.7. Ouch. Unbelievably low, like Bobby Evans level.

Luke Goedeke (only 8 starts) 63.7. Limited due to being benched for poor performance and getting injured.

Michael Deiter 64.5. Ugly.

Nate Davis 68.9. Davis has become one of the better guards in the NFL and signed a contract with the Bears with a $10 million salary. As a rookie with the Titans, however, he had a slow start.

Lloyd Cushenberry 68.5. Not much better.

Tyre Philips (only 8 starts) 77.1

Dan Feeney (only 9 starts) 82.8

Cody Ford 88.4

Pat Elflein 90.6

Kendrick Green 94.4

Cole Strange 94.6

Ezra Cleveland (only 9 starts) 96.2

Dylan Parham (2022, 3rd rd) 101.9

Damien Lewis 102.2. This one is interesting, because he had a good 70.2 PFF grade, but wasn't awarded many SIS points.

Jonah Jackson 105. Same draft as Lewis, only had a 57 PFF grade, but somehow edges in front of Lewis due to having more SIS points.

Robert Hunt 108

Cesar Ruiz (only 9 starts) 108.6

Ed Ingram (2022, 2nd rd) 113.1. He had a mediocre PFF grade (57.1), but was aided by a healthy SIS score.

James Daniels (only 10 starts) 114.4

Our 115 target goal for Avila

Will Hernandez 119.9

Dalton Risner 120.4

Alijah Vera-Tucker (2021, 1st rd) 120.8

Landon Dickerson 123.3. He made 13 starts, so likely would have been a little higher if he had started the entire season.

Elgton Jenkins 125.2

Cody Whitehair 127.5

Joe Thuney 127.9. Notice that Whitehair and Thuney are virtually tied. Whitehair had a fantastic 87.5 PFF grade, while Thuney only had a 63.9 PFF grade. But, Thuney had way more SIS points, resulting in them being nearly exactly the same. Go figure.

Trey Smith (2021, 6th rd) 134.3. An unexpected find and impact rookie for the Chiefs.

Zion Johnson (2022, 1st rd) 134.8. He had the most SIS points of any player on this list, better than even the great Quenton Nelson.

Michael Onwenu (2020, 6th rd) 142.3. Like Smith, a 6th round sleeper.

Quenton Nelson 147.7. No surprise. Nelson was 1st team All Pro and a Pro Bowler as a rookie. The best guard draft prospect of his generation.

In total, that makes 11 players on the list above the target line, and 19 players who fell below the target line. Some of the players were 1st rd picks, even top 10 overall picks and we didn't include players who failed to win starting jobs as rookies. So, my initial impression seems to be right, that 125 points could be somewhat aggressive as a goal for Avila, but it also isn't unreasonable. Do you think he'll achieve that goal as a rookie?