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Phil Jurkovec draft introduction

Phil Jurkovec is a QB from western Pennsylvania. He's from a Pittsburgh suburg. In a bygone age, that meant something in the NFL. QBs from that geographic area were "built different". Joe Namath, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, George Blanda are all from the region. Marc Bulger is from Pittsburgh.

Things have changed since those days. Economic and demographic changes have impacted western Pa. NFL football has evolved. The prototypical QB used to be a tall, tough, strong armed, vertical passer who could stand in the pocket and take big hits. Today's QBs play in a "watered down" version of pro football where the defense is so handcuffed by rules that favor the offense, it is a wonder that so many 1st round QBs still become busts.

In 2020, Hunter Long was the 2nd leading receiver for Boston College, with nearly 700 receiving yards. Jurkovec was BC's starting QB that season. For 2 straight years, Jurkovec was projected as a 1st round pick. In the summer of 2021, Sports Illustrated mocked Jurkovec as the 14th overall pick in the 2022 draft. After an injury plagued 2021 season, Jurkovec decided not to enter the draft and returned to BC.

A year ago, multiple early mock drafts had Jurkovec projected as a 1st round pick in the 2023 draft. Mark Schofield had him as the 22nd overall pick. PFN mocked him as the 8th overall pick. Mel Kiper ranked Jurkovec as the 9th overall prospect on his big board. Another injury derailed Jurkovec's 2022 season and he didn't enter the 2023 draft. He has transferred to Pitt, his 3rd school, where he will play his 6th year in college.

Unlike 2021 and 2022, Jurkovec today is almost universally viewed as an UDFA. How did he fall so far that he went from being a top 10 overall pick to a player who has very little hope of even being drafted? Is there still time for him to salvage his career and become an NFL 1st round pick?

After watching his games, it is difficult for me to understand why he was ever so highly ranked by draft experts in the first place. I have him as an UDFA prospect. My NFL comp for him is Nate Stanley, a 7th round pick in 2020.

Background

Name: Phil Jurkovec. Turns 24 years old in November of 2023. Sixth year, redshirt senior.

School: Pitt. Transferred in December 2022 from BC. Transferred to BC for 2020 season from Notre Dame. Degree in economics from BC. Seeking a 2nd degree in communications from Pitt.

Size: Listed by Pitt as 6'5'' tall and 235 pounds. Was 190 pounds as recruit. NFLDB 9 7/8'' hands, 32 1/4'' arms, 78'' wingspan, 4.78 second 40 time. Sports Illustrated 4.76 second 40 time, 6'4 1/8'' tall, 226 pounds. BC listed him at 226 pounds in 2020, but only 214 pounds in 2022. Jurkovec intentionally dropped weight during 2021 season after his injury to try to get faster. He said he also couldn't do upper body strength training due to his injury.

4 star recruit from PA, very highly recruited. Not the most eloquent interview, but he's humble, grounded and team oriented.

NFLDB 64th QB, 539th overall (UDFA). Athletic runner, dual threat QB. Sees field well. Smart QB who limits INTs and doesn't force ball into danger. Natural leader. Good accuracy. Enough arm strength for intermediate range tight window throws. Fades backwards when pressured. Holds ball too long, then makes panicked throws. Average footwork, mechanics need to improve to be effective in pros. Sometimes slow in progressions. Projected as a 4th rd pick in 2023 draft.

NFLMDD 709th overall (UDFA)

PFN simulator 322nd overall (UDFA)

Shane Hallam 27th QB (UDFA)

Sports Illustrated (summer of 2022): Requisite arm strength. Dual threat QB. Solid touch. Puts ball where only receivers can get it. Flashes a beautiful deep ball. Vision and power as runner, breaks tackles. Can throw accurately off platform. Thrives under pressure. Has NFL starter upside. Poor lower body mechanics. Erratic ball placements. Regularly slows down receivers. Locks onto first option and doesn't get through progressions, forcing ball into coverage. Doesn't sense pressure and takes too many sacks. 3rd round grade.

TDN 2023 draft profile: Sufficient arm strength. Accurate in short and intermediate range. Pro style offense. Tough. Solid mobility. Lacks high end arm talent. Deep passes lose steam. Accuracy goes down if he tries to throw harder. Heavy feet trying to navigate pocket. Mechanics decline when pressured. Leans backwards vs pressure instead of sliding and resetting feet.

Was backup to Ian Book at Notre Dame. Transferred when Book decided to return to ND for 2020 season.

Separated his shoulder in 2020 negatively impacted his performance late in that season. Wrist injury (fractured throwing hand, requiring surgery) in 2nd game of 2021 season caused him to miss most of that year. Unexpectedly came back to start in "Red Bandana Game", an annual tradition by BC program to honor a 9/11 hero and BC graduate named Welles Crowther.

BC had a poor OL in 2022 and Jurkovec performed poorly behind them. He had a right knee injury, concussion and rib injury, and didn't appear in any more 2022 games after getting hurt.

2020 (10 starts): 61.0% completions, 2,558 yards, 7.6 yards per attempt, 255.8 yards per game, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 24 sacks. 77-150-3 rushing, 6 fumbles.

2021 (6 starts): 54.2% completions, 914 yards, 7 TDs, 4 INTs, 6 sacks. 50-322-5 rushing, 1 fumble.

2022 (8 starts): 59.5% completions, 1,711 yards, 11 TDs, 8 INTs, 25 sacks. Negative rushing stats in 2022, 8 fumbles.

Strengths

Played in pro style offense with snaps under center.

Prototypical size.

In 2022, his OL was terrible. Poor pass blocking. It was like a feeding frenzy, the defenders were sharks and he was the main course, desperately running for his life. Team couldn't run the ball effective. Other than Zay Flowers, receivers did not consistently create separation.

Stands tall and delivers inside of a collapsing pocket. Over the top throwing motion.

Accurate 12 yards to sideline from far hash. Excellent accuracy on 20 yard sideline fade, but WR dropped ball.

Has run strength and size. On QB draw, safety tries to unload on him, but QB delivers bigger blow, knocks S down, then gains 4 more yards after contact. Can push forward on short yardage QB runs.

Jurkovec's tape is challenging to evaluate, because he was a very inexperienced and flawed QB in 2020, got injured in 2021, then had a poor supporting cast in 2022. Understandably, he didn't look particularly good in any season, but not always for the same reasons. Similar to how I felt that Carson Wentz was actually a better QB in 2018 than he was in 2017, even though most experts said Wentz was an MVP candidate in 2017 and regressed the following season, I believe that Jurkovec is a better QB today than he was back in 2020, when draft experts were touting him as a potential 1st round draft pick. For multiple reasons, this "improvement" just doesn't show up in his stats.

Weaknesses

A statue in the pocket. Struggles when moved off his spot. Labored, slow footed player, lacking burst and acceleration to escape defenders. Poor change of direction in space. Not a twitchy or sudden athlete. Waddles like a duck. Takes sacks that are avoidable. Odd lack of pocket awareness. Felt edge pressure and stepped up in pocket, but instead of throwing the ball or moving, he just stands in front of DE, allowing the DE to grab him from behind, then tries to throw ball as he's falling backwards, nearly an INT. Poor ball security under pressure, creating fumbles when he should sense that he can't get away and should be trying to protect ball and tuck it, but instead dangles it in one hand away from body. Feet freeze in pocket and QB hesitates, deer in headlights, unsure what to do next. Didn't see blitz coming, fumbled.

No burst or agility, runs like an old man with bad ankles and knees. Carries ball loosely running. Doesn't win races to the corner or make defenders miss in open field.

Below average accuracy. TE open in end zone for TD, but heavy pressure by unblocked LB, QB doesn't get rotation on release, pass way off target, way over head of TE and not on correct line. Air mailed comeback over WR's head. Missed TE high in flat. Missed safety outlet RB low. Bounced pass so far short of WR, it made me wonder if he was actually throwing it to the WR or if he was trying to throw it to the TE. Seemed like he was looking at the WR, but I don't understand how he could have missed the throw that badly, it was like a baseball pitcher bouncing the ball 15 feet short of home plate.

WR wide open, no defender close to him, QB climbing forward in pocket, feet completely unorganized, Zach Wilson footwork, badly misses target trying to lob the ball to WR.

Arm is deficient for NFL level. Tried to drive 20 yard sideline route and it was a dead duck, falling short of target.

Limited deep ball range and accuracy. 35 yard pass drifted out of bounds, ruining what could have been a 60 yard TD, because Zay Flowers was behind the CB. Flowers is behind the DBs, pass should be thrown about 50 yards downfield, but it is as if there is a magic forcefield where QB can't drive the ball more than 40 yards from LOS, so Flowers has to comeback towards the QB to make the catch. WR has leverage on route, but 40 yard pass hangs up in air and allows CB to break it up. So far off target throwing INT on deep over route that I have no idea what went wrong, it was like he was trying to throw it to the safety. On move to left, 40 yard pass is underthrown, forcing WR to slow down to make catch. 45 yard pass underthrown, forcing WR to slow down. 50 yard pass underthrown, WR has to slow down and adjust to ball.

Doesn't choose the correct receiver, throws the ball to targets who aren't open when there are better options in the progression. Didn't see CB dropping under over route, should have been INT, but CB drops the ball. Shaky decision making within progression, forcing risky throws into coverage underneath where risk reward calculus is way off for down and distance.

Leaning tower of Pisa in 2020, odd lower body mechanics throwing, resulting in scatter shot ball placements. Shoulders not level, helmet tilted to side.

Beat up with multiple injuries, both to upper and lower body. Feels like he's held together with duct tape and his lack of athleticism will only lead to him absorbing more hits and further punishment, only leading to more injuries.

2023 Outlook

Expectations for Pitt in 2023 are relatively modest. Experts are projecting them to win between 6 to 8 games, finish in the middle of the conference and qualify for a bowl game. Pitt's OC is Frank Cignetti Jr., who was the BC OC in 2020 and 2021 and once was an assistant with the Rams, as well as with multiple other NFL teams.

Per NFLMDD, Pitt doesn't have a single draft worthy 2024 prospect. NFLDB has them with one draftable prospect, Gavin Bartholomew, a TE, who only had 283 receiving yards last season. Per Shane Hallam, Pitt has 2 draftable prospects, led by Bartholomew as a late 6th round pick. So, on paper, Pitt's supporting cast isn't going to be nearly as good as the QB's we've looked at who play for schools such as Alabama, Florida State, Washington, USC, Michigan, Miami (FL) or Texas, who are stuffed with 2024 NFL draft talent.

Jurkovec said that feedback from the NFL was that he didn't have a good chance of being drafted and that he needed to stay in school.

Jurkovec made me think of Carson Strong, an UDFA in 2022. After failing to catch on with the Eagles or the Cardinals, Strong is playing in the USFL, for the Michigan Panthers, where he is the backup QB to former Rams UDFA, Josh Love. The Panthers have given playing time to both Love and Strong, but neither of them have played particularly well. I don't know if Josh Love will ever get another chance to be in an NFL training camp, but I'm happy that he at least got a chance to continue to play football and work on his craft. I didn't think he was ready to make a roster as an UDFA rookie, but he had more raw talent than most UDFA QBs.

With a rebound 2023 season, Jurkovec could get drafted, because he's a big guy with a decent arm, but I think it would require a completely shocking turnaround for him to vault himself all the way back into being considered a top 10 draft prospect.