Angel from the Outfield

In 2020, Zach Wilson was locked in a fierce 3 way QB battle just to be BYU's starter. During spring ball, the team evenly split the reps among all 3 QBs, calling it an open competition. Jaren Hall was one of the other QBs who was a legitimate threat to beat out Wilson. Hall got injured during the summer while playing on the BYU baseball team (he was an outfielder) and didn't play at all during the 2020 football season, taking a medical redshirt. During fall camp, Wilson solidified his hold on the starting job and it vaulted him all the way to the 2nd overall pick in the 2021 draft.

There are a couple of ways you could spin that. First, maybe this was a sign that Wilson was massively overdrafted. Or, perhaps Jaren Hall is a very underrated QB prospect. NFLDB said that Hall was a potential starting NFL QB and a 2nd to 3rd round prospect. Kyle Crabbs, one of the most prominent draft experts in the industry, called Hall a "discount Kyler Murray". Since Murray was the number one overall pick in the 2019 draft, exactly how much of a discount are we talking about? Sometimes, when I go to the store they have a sale where the sales price is one cent lower than the regular price. I've even seen sales where the sale price is somehow higher than the regular price, which doesn't make any sense. Are we talking about a penny discount? Or are we talking about that bag of questionable smelling and tough as an old shoe beef jerky that is 50% off?

Background

Name: Jaren Hall. 25 years old. 5th year redshirt junior.

School: BYU. Studied exercise and wellness.

Combine measurements: 6 feet tall, 207 pounds, 29 3/4'' arms, 9 1/2'' hands, 71 7/8'' wingspan.

At Pro Day, ran unofficial 4.62 second 40 time, 4.19 second shuttle, 6.97 second (3 cone).

Senior Bowl measurements: 6' 1/8'' tall, 211 pounds, 29 7/8'' arms, 9 1/2'' hands, 71 3/4'' wingspan.

3 star recruit. From Utah. Dad was a RB at BYU, mom was a BYU gymnast. One brother was a RB at BYU and a second brother is a WR at BYU. Married to a former college soccer player, has a young daughter born in 2021. BYU was his dream school. Prior to enrolling at BYU, did 2 year missionary service in Sacramento, CA area.

Played on BYU baseball team in 2019 and 2020, then gave up baseball to concentrate on football.

Redshirted in 2018. When Zach Wilson broke his thumb in 2019, Hall made 2 starts, becoming the first black QB in the history of BYU's football program. He was knocked out of both of those starts with concussions.

Hip injury (torn muscle tendon), missed entire 2020 season. Rib injuries in 2021, missing multiple games with broken ribs. Foot and ankle injuries late in 2021 season, missed bowl game. Severe high ankle sprain, right leg, late in 2022 season.

2021 (10 starts) 63.9% completions, 258.3 yards per game, 20 TDs, 5 INTs. 62-305-3 rushing. 12 sacks, 3 fumbles, 156.1 passer rating.

2022 (12 starts) 66.0% completions, 264.3 yards per game, 31 TDs, 6 INTs. 86-348-3 rushing. 13 sacks, 5 fumbles, 160.8 passer rating.

4 career receptions.

Only 11 INTs on 718 career passing attempts, a low 1.53% interception rate. Only 25 sacks in his last 22 starts.

Didn't play in the Senior Bowl game, as he was still recovering from injury, but the reports from his week of practice were generally positive and he was said to have improved his draft stock with his performance.

In interviews, he's very mature, composed, confident, extremely professional, a natural leader, intelligent.

His agent is Ryan Tollner, the same agent as Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Blake Bortles.

Lance Zierlein 176th overall (6th round)

ESPN 8th QB, 178 overall (6th rd)

PFN (Industry) 7th QB, 99th overall (3rd rd)

PFF not ranked in top 150

NFLDB 8th QB, 136th overall (5th round projection)

TDN 157th overall (5th rd)

Drafttek 7th QB, 106th (4th rd)

Shane Hallam 173rd (late 5th to 6th)

Brian Bosarge 269th (UDFA)

Fanspeak draft simulator boards: Bills (155th, 5th rd); Bengals (188th, 6th rd); Broncos (136th, 5th rd); Steelers (168th, late 5th rd); CBS (94th, 3rd rd); Rigdon (203rd, 7th rd); Shoup (172nd, late 5th rd); Diamonds (188th, 6th rd); Draftplex (197th, 6th); Packers (161st, 5th rd); Bears (165th, 5th rd)

The high ranking on these boards is a 3rd round pick. Low is UDFA. 5th round seems to be a very common projection for Hall. Tony Pauline reported that the Vikings, Seahawks, Lions and Colts have showed particular interest in Hall, so it is worthwhile to look at where those teams draft in the 5th to 6th round range in comparison to where the Rams have their picks if you are interested in potential draft strategy to acquire Hall. For example, if you were planning on the Rams drafting Hall at slot 177 overall, consider that the Colts hold pick 176. If you wanted Hall with the very first 5th round pick for the Rams, slot 167, you probably should pay particular attention to who the Vikings draft at slot 158.

Lance Zierlein: 5.96 draft grade (average backup). Gardner Minshew comp [Minshew was a 6th round pick in 2019] Undersized pocket QB. Unimpressive arm strength. Excellent ball placement, feathery soft deep ball with accuracy. Lacks ball velocity, creating small margin for error. Ideal poise in pocket. Adequate job reading coverages and avoiding sacks. Scheme fit is heavy play action with levels based concepts. Confident, reads progressions, uses checkdowns. Limited arm talent. Struggles to make deep sideline throws. Slot to climb in pocket. Can't rip ball into windows. Below average making tough throws on move.

NFLDB: Natural athlete. Light on feet in pocket. Enough of a threat as a runner. Good overall accuracy. Good ball placements on short timing routes. Strong arm, can make all the NFL throws. Instinctive runner. Goes through reads quickly. Patient in pocket. Below average height. Injury history. Had half field reads in system. More effective when on move. Not elite arm strength. Accuracy off when feet not set. Bad habit of throwing off back foot in muddled pocket. All arm throws when on move, losing accuracy. Older prospect. Potential starter, 2nd or 3rd rd pick.

TDN (Kyle Crabbs): High upside developmental QB. Gifted passer to all 3 levels, can throw on the run. Throws outside the numbers. Layers throws over zone defenders. Back shoulder throws vs man coverage. Has feel for pass rush, extends plays at a high level. Adjusts delivery to throw from crowded pocket at different arm angles. Dynamic athlete. Tough. Durability questions. Not a rhythm passer, needs to improve anticipation. Some wonky misses on half field reads. Not ready to be pushed into action. Raw. Live arm. Plus intangibles. 4th round value. RPO scheme fit. Discount Kyler Murray.

BigBlueView: Intriguing blend of athleticism and arm talent. undersized. Very quick, compact release. Doesn't have overpowering arm, but "strong enough" for NFL. Lacks experience with pro style system, BYU had many slants, crossers, bubble screens. Stares down his intended target. needs to improve timing and anticipation. Waits until WR is open before throwing. Streaky ball placement and accuracy. Inconsistent mechanics. Holds ball too long, not aware to defenders dropping into passing lanes. Takes care of ball. A QB3 with potential to develop into QB2. Might never challenge for starting job. Middle Day 3 prospect.

Strengths

Never appears to be frazzled or panicked on the field. Maintains "field general" energy. Doesn't always do the right thing, but if he makes a mistake he can regroup, he doesn't allow it to snowball into a parade of many more errors.

Has play traits of a "game manager" QB who might not make a bunch of explosive chunk plays, but also won't beat his team with loose turnovers and poor execution.

Solid sense of touch. Compact delivery. Decent overall accuracy, just not consistent.

Sufficient arm strength to drill passes 10 to 15 yards to sideline from far hash on college field.

Generally stays balanced when in pocket. Doesn't have the best pocket awareness and presence, but he does flash some ability to navigate the pocket with side steps to buy an extra split second and deliver the pass.

Fluid runner with good speed. Likes to try to scramble for yards. Can execute QB draws. Useful as red zone runner near the GL, almost like a RB. Good at executing option running plays. Decisive whether to keep or pitch, can accelerate smoothly upfield. Tucks ball away securely when he takes off running.

Consistent performer. Some of his best statistical games came against BYU's strongest opponents.

Some of his plays are difficult to interpret, because it isn't clear if the WR made an error and ran the route improperly, or if the QB made a mistake. So, it is possible that the WR crossed up the QB.

Can catch passes on trick plays. Was an outfielder in baseball, comfortable tracking the ball and catching.

Development slowed by playing baseball, getting injured and being behind Wilson. Has developmental upside. I feel he could get considerably better just by cleaning up some basic mechanical issues in his game and being more consistent.

Excellent football character and overall maturity level. Intangibles fit the profile of an NFL QB, regardless of whether he is a starter or a backup.

Weaknesses

Doesn't have enough arm talent to project as an NFL starter. Underthrows deep passes and ball tends to hang up in the air. Struggles to drive passes with sufficient ball velocity, especially outside of the numbers. WRs sometimes forced to wait on the ball to arrive, either due to QB not releasing the pass on time, or because QB doesn't zip the pass in with more velocity.

Not enough arm to make some deep throws. WR gets over the top of CB, no safety deep to help. If QB throws bomb, this could be a super long TD pass about 75 yards. Instead, QB throws it backshoulder for the WR to try to fight back through the CB to make the catch. WR behind the CB on well designed play and breaking wide open, if QB throws deep, it is a 60 yard TD, but serves up dead duck INT to safety undercutting the route.

Didn't throw many INTs, but some of his interceptions were complete howlers, atrociously bad. Made me want to throw up. Dead duck INTs on deep go routes. Ugly INT thrown off of his back foot. Just really bad.

Late with passes, doesn't throw with enough anticipation, even on routes where the WR is coming wide open. WR over middle, the QB should be able to see from the body posture of the CB that the WR will easily break into the clear, but the QB takes an extra hitch, late to start his release, resulting in the WR having to slow down to make the catch instead of being able to get the pass in stride and maintain full speed. Waits to see WRs come out of breaks, even when they are wide open and have clear leverage on the route.

Inconsistent ball placements. Sometimes has good accuracy, but other very basic passes, even on very short throws the ball can be all over the place, on the wrong shoulder to receivers in the flat or on crossers, forcing them to slow down and turn to make the catch. WR uncovered, all alone, QB misses him, pass behind the WR. Instead of throwing WRs away from the defender, sometimes he throws the ball to the trailing shoulder, allowing the defender who is out of phase with the WR to get back into the play. One reason I feel this happens is his left shoulder tends to fly open instead of being properly closed to his aiming point, resulting in many of his throws to miss to the left of his intended target. When throwing to left side of the field, misses some throws low and to the left of the WR. Basic speed out to the left side of field, shoulder flies open, the pass misses wildly, sailing to left and way over head of WR, not even remotely close to the WR.

Issues with his timing and ball placements showed up even at the Senior Bowl practices, throwing against air and with a red jersey on where he couldn't get hit. A tick late at times and not precise with the ball location. His Pro Day throwing session wasn't overly impressive.

Due to limited natural arm strength, Hall tries to "step on the gas" to drive the ball with more velocity, whether to make tight window throws over the middle or made longer throws towards the sideline, outside the numbers. When he does this, what tends to happen is the ball sails high, he loses accuracy. The pass sometimes misses the WR, not even giving the WR a chance to make the catch or it can result in the pass deflecting off the WR's hands and up in the air, giving the defense opportunities to make INTs.

Not disciplined with his mechanics. Feet not set on some very basic short throws, will drift to side or throw "fade away jumpers" off his back foot. Fade away even on basic throw to flat. When he misses passes, some of them are so wild they miss by a mile.

Body is not in sync with his eyes as he goes through the progression. He doesn't reset his feet and align his shoulders properly to make accurate throws, so if he quickly goes from one read to the next and tries to quickly throw, this tends to result in wild misses where the pass doesn't fly anywhere close to the intended target. One play, the WR is wide open, standing near the sideline and QB flings the ball wildly out of bounds, as if he's intentionally throwing the ball away. Other times, he'll completely lose his base in those situations, robbing him of both velocity and accuracy on the pass. When moved off his spot in pocket, doesn't always reset his feet properly to throw. Wildly misses his safety outlet some throws, because when he decides to check it down, he never moves his shoulders and feet properly to make an accurate throw.

Stares down receivers, drawing defenders who are reading his eyes directly to the intended receiver. Robber in middle of field, QB leads him to the WR. Led safety directly to WR for a near INT.

Had relatively simplistic reads in system. Didn't show advanced feel for how to read more complex coverage looks and sort out which route to throw. Sometimes locks in immediately to one WR (typically outside the numbers) and doesn't see better options in the progression (generally over the middle.) This resulted in him turning down some very easy throws and instead attempt very low percentage throws. For example, on a medium 3rd down, the TE running a shallow crossing route has clear leverage on his defender, he's very open, heading into a wide open area of the field. Simple throw for a 1st down. QB doesn't choose this route, trying to make a hero throw deep and down the sideline. That's not winning football.

Could really struggle to be a reliable "small window throw" NFL QB, because he doesn't display precise ball control to thread the needle. Some of his throws have a "jump ball" feel, just put up for grabs, which can work if you have big WRs and TEs who can fight off the DB for the pass, but if you have a smaller WR who needs the pass to be placed precisely, Hall might not be up to the task.

Not urgent and quick with dropbacks (even in shotgun) to set up properly for throws.

Hesitant in pocket, can be indecisive, holding ball too long. One such play resulted in him eating a sack in the end zone for a safety. Doesn't move to the side consistently to find better passing window angles. Feet sometimes stop in pocket.

Doesn't stand tall in pocket. When there is pressure in his face, tends to back up and fade away. Short in stature.

Not elusive as a runner. Doesn't have much running strength, not able to break tackles, goes down relatively easily. Not big and strong enough to push forward on QB sneaks.

Most of snaps were in shotgun. Only occasionally took snaps under center. Fumbled multiple snaps under center, including one on 4th&1 play.

Puka Nacua, a WR prospect from BYU, is a pretty good looking player. I didn't study him close enough to have any idea of how to grade him, but in general I felt that Hall "left plays on the field" and that Nacua would have had better stats if Hall had performed at a higher level. Hall didn't have the same level of receiving talent that many of the top QB prospects in the draft had at their schools, so I feel you have to take that into consideration when evaluating Hall, but by the same token I felt Hall was holding Nacua back on some plays.

3 years older than a normal prospect.

Always injured. Never had a "healthy" season at BYU. Both upper and lower body injuries.

Draft Grade and Pro Comp

Late round grade. (John Wolford, UDFA 2018, Jets, Wake Forest)

Wolford at his pro day measured 5'11 1/2'' tall, 205 pounds, 29 1/8'' arms, 9 5/8'' hands, 70 5/8'' wingspan. He ran 4.77 seconds in the 40 with a 1.70 second split, 31'' vertical jump, 9'1'' broad jump, 4.18 second shuttle, 6.78 second (3 cone). In terms of both size and athleticism, Hall and Wolford are very similar. Both QBs are intelligent and throw with good touch and decent accuracy, but both players had mechanical issues coming out of college, are too short and have limited arm strength.

Matthew Stafford is currently the only QB under contract for the Rams. New candidates at QB are needed, even if the Rams were to bring back Perkins or Wolford after the draft as free agent signings.

In my view, Hall is only a marginal draft prospect. If Wolford and Jaren Hall were both on the roster and in a "fair" and open QB battle (by that I mean you just choose the guy who plays better, not taking into consideration age or projected future development), my prediction is that Wolford would beat out Hall. I think McVay could become a big fan of Hall for exactly the same reasons he liked Wolford. Hall's mobility is a good fit for McVay's play action, west coast system and Hall has good football IQ to digest all the complexity of what McVay wants to teach and install into the playbook and into each week's gameplan. Linking Hall to the Rams makes sense, he is a very good candidate to replace Wolford on the roster.

On the other hand, I have reservations about Hall will ever be a better NFL QB than Wolford was for the Rams. This is why I don't have him graded higher. It doesn't matter much for the Rams, because if you see a QB as a 6th to 7th round pick and the Day 3 cluster of picks for the Rams begins in the compensatory section of the 5th round, I think it doesn't make a big difference whether you draft the player in the 6th round or very late in the 5th round. Still, I'd characterize such a pick as merely "treading water", I don't think it would result in an actual upgrade at the backup QB spot. In fact, as far as 2023 is concerned, it likely would result in a step backwards, because Hall wouldn't have any pro football experience. Prior to joining the Rams, Wolford was a starting QB in the AAF, gaining valuable playing experience. Wolford was probably the best QB in that league. If something happened to Stafford in 2023 and we had to turn to Jaren Hall to rescue the situation as a rookie, it would be a huge ask. I don't think he'd be up to the challenge.

I don't agree with the experts who have Hall as a 3rd round prospect and a potential developmental starter. While he does have developmental upside, I don't think that he'll become more than a 2nd string QB. As a rookie, he'd be best served as a QB3 or even as a practice squad player. He shouldn't be pressed into action unless a team had a string of injuries.

If the Rams are going to rebuild, what they might consider doing is drafting someone like Hall, have him be listed as the QB2, then just wait and see what develops. If Stafford only has a temporary injury where he's out a week or two, the Rams might feel fine giving Hall some playing time. He might learn from the experience. On the other hand, if Stafford had a major injury and was lost for most of the season, the Rams could still bring back someone like Wolford if he stays a street FA. He'd be familiar with the system, so as long as he stays in shape, he could come in and with very little practice time get prepared to play in a game.