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The Los Angeles Rams had lost six of their previous eight games going into Week 11’s contest against the Seattle Seahawks, but in the NFC sometimes it only takes one win to get back into the playoff picture. That’s exactly what happened for the Rams after Sunday’s 17-16 win over the Seahawks, as the Rams have a shot to make the playoffs and the road isn’t as treacherous as you might imagine.
The key was taking down the Seahawks on Sunday and they did that. In turn, it netted them full custody of the tiebreaker, set themselves up for a potential path to a three-game win streak, and put Seattle in position for a complete implosion.
According to the NY Times interaction playoff simulation, the Rams currently have a 16-percent chance of making the playoffs. Keep in mind, this is a predictive model that simulates games based on the model itself.
Here are several scenarios in which the L.A. Rams can complete a 3-6 turnaround into a playoff berth (playoff odds in parentheses):
11-6 (Run the table)
Win vs. Cardinals (24%)
Win vs. Browns (38%)
Win vs. Ravens (60%)
Win vs. Commanders (71%)
Win vs. Saints (92%)
Win vs. Giants (99%)
Win vs. 49ers (100%)
10-7 (6-1 the rest of the way)
Win vs. Cardinals (24%)
Win vs. Browns (38%)
Loss vs. Ravens (28%)
Win vs. Commanders (40%)
Win vs. Saints (63%)
Win vs. Giants (82%)
Win vs. 49ers (99%)
9-8 (5-2 the rest of the way)
Win vs. Cardinals (24%)
Win vs. Browns (38%)
Loss vs. Ravens (28%)
Win vs. Commanders (40%)
Win vs. Saints (63%)
Win vs. Giants (82%)
Loss vs. 49ers (80%)
As you can see, the Rams would greatly increase their 16-percent odds if they just win a few games against teams that currently have losing records, including the Cardinals, Commanders, and Giants. Other teams, like the Browns and Saints, will or could be working with backup quarterbacks.
Other paths
What if the Rams beat the Cardinals but lose to the Browns and Ravens instead of the 49ers week 18 and those are their two losses?
Win vs. Cardinals (24%)
Loss vs. Browns (9%)
Loss vs. Ravens (10%)
Win vs. Commanders (17%)
Win vs. Saints (31%)
Win vs. Giants (38%)
Win vs. 49ers (82%)
It’s worth mentioning, ESPN’s analytical matchup predictor has the Rams finishing the season 9-8 with only losses to the Ravens and 49ers. They are favored in the other five matchups the rest of the way.
The bottom line is the Rams had to have that one against Seattle. If they drop any games they would want those one or two games to be against the Ravens or Browns as they have no impact on the NFC playoff race. If L.A. had to drop any NFC games the best ones to lose would be the 49ers or Cardinals. The Saints, Commanders and even Giants still have a shot at the playoffs.
Here’s your weekly rooting guide if you want the Rams to get into the playoffs. This is of course the perfect scenario for each game the rest of the way.
Week 12:
Rams victory over Cardinals
Lions victory over Packers
Cowboys victory over Commanders
49ers victory over Seahawks
Saints victory over Falcons
Colts victory over Buccaneers
Bears victory over Vikings
Week 13:
Rams victory over Browns
Cowboys victory over Seahawks
Lions victory over Saints
Panthers victory over Buccaneers
Chiefs victory over Packers
Week 14:
Rams victory over Ravens
Falcons victory over Buccaneers
Lions victory over Bears
Panthers victory over Saints
Raiders victory over Vikings
49ers victory over Seahawks
Giants victory over Packers
Week 15:
Rams victory over Commanders
Bengals victory over Vikings
Browns victory over Bears
Panthers victory over Falcons
Buccaneers victory over Packers
Eagles victory over Seahawks
Week 16:
Rams victory over Saints
Titans victory over Seahawks
Lions victory over Vikings
Panthers victory over Packers
Jaguars victory over Buccaneers
Cardinals victory over Bears
Week 17:
Rams victory over Giants
Bears victory over Falcons
Saints victory over Buccaneers
49ers victory over Commanders
Steelers victory over Seahawks
Packers victory over Vikings
Week 18:
Rams victory over 49ers
Lions victory over Vikings
Bears victory over Packers
Cardinals victory over Seahawks
Panthers victory over Buccaneers
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