FanPost

One of My Favorite Day 3 Prospects

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Dream Team

How many prospects in this draft have names that sound like NBA basketball players? Chris Paul is an offensive lineman from Tulsa. His composite draft board ranking would be approximately a 6th round projection. In an outcome that very rarely happens, I have a higher grade on this prospect than every other draft board I reviewed. I have a 3rd round grade on Paul. My comp for him is Laken Tomlinson.

Why do I have Paul graded so high? Tyre Phillips was a late riser in the 2020 draft. He was the very last pick in the 3rd round, shortly after the Rams took Terrell Burgess. I think Paul is a better prospect than Phillips. In 2015, I thought Jamon Brown was going to be about a 5th round pick, but the Rams drafted him early in the 3rd round. I had a 4th round grade on Bobby Evans as a guard and thought he was a better prospect than Brown. I think Paul is a better prospect than both Jamon Brown and Bobby Evans. If we run down the list of recent 4th round guard draft picks, I feel like Paul more than holds his own compared to most of those players.

Instead of the Rams drafting the guard position early, the better strategy might be to target a different position first, then come back later and try to get a player like Paul, because I think he's very underrated and could end up having a better NFL career compared to prospects ranked ahead of him in this draft class.

I reserve the right to change my rankings if there's a center prospect in this draft named Hakeem Olajuwon.

Background

Combine: 6'3 7/8'' tall, 323 pounds, 33 5/8'' arms, 9 3/8'' hands, 81 5/8'' wingspan.

Senior Bowl: 6'3 3/8'' tall, 324 pounds, 34'' arms, 9 3/8'' hands, 82 1/4'' wingspan.

In terms of size, he's almost exactly the same as Laken Tomlinson.

4.89 sec (40 time), 1.67 sec (10 yard split), 27'' vert jump, 9'1'' broad jump, 4.83 sec (shuttle), 7.74 sec (3 cone).

Tomlinson ran 5.33 sec in the 40 at the Combine. Apart from that, Paul and Tomlinson have nearly identical testing scores. Paul and Dylan Parham also have similar testing scores, but Paul weighed more, so if we adjusted it for body size, I bet Paul would rank higher.

Born in Houston. Lived in Nigeria from age 7 to 9. Middle child with 2 brothers, both of whom played college football. Threw shot put and discus in high school in Houston area. Fan of Houston Texans.

Turns 24 years old in November. Redshirt senior. Degree in computer information systems, was MBA student.

Involved in variety of student leadership organizations, intelligent and well spoken with calming personality, a potential future Walter Payton Man of the Year Award type character. Humble, hard working, considerate of others.

High character and mature even from a young age. In an interview back when he was only 15, he had very thoughtful and deep answers to a variety of questions and was known for being a student leader and helpful person. His high school created a "Chris Paul Day" which is the first day of this year's NFL draft. It's like he's been a 30 year old person since the age of 15.

Is an "alternative R&B" music producer, was in choir in HS. Musical stage name is "The Seventh", had EP released in 2020.

In 2019, said he was rehabbing a right knee injury, but I wasn't able to find more details. Had leg injury towards end of 2021 season and missed multiple games to end the year.

Has substantial starting experience at LG, RG and RT, and playing time at LT. Redshirted in 2017. Started at RG in 2018. Started at LG in 2019. New OL coach decided to move him out to RT in 2020 and 2021.

ESPN 142nd overall (late 4th to 5th round)

PFF 127th overall (4th rd)

Lance Zierlein 276th overall (UDFA), essentially tied with players such as Alec Lindstrom (271), Darrian Beavers (272) and D'Marco Jackson (273).

Tony Pauline 151 (5th rd)

Ian Cummings 235th (7th rd)

Oliver Hodgkinson 226th (7th rd)

Shane Hallam 180th (late 5th to 6th)

Brian Bosarge 147th (5th rd)

Drafttek 284th (UDFA)

Zierlein 5.64 draft grade (bottom of roster or practice squad). LZ says he's highly intelligent, massive bubble with thick thighs and long arms, pinpoint hand placements in run game, needs to widen base, has slow feet and limited recovery ability.

Joe Marino (TDN) says he has tight hips, lacks natural knee bend, modest lateral mobility, isn't a mauler and had awareness lapses. Compares him to Jamon Brown.

Bleacher Report gave him a 6th to 7th round grade, saying he has good contact balance and core strength, but has labored movement to the 2nd level.

Tony Pauline at the Senior Bowl described an up and down performance in practices. Good Day 1, violent of snap, finished reps with physicality, sturdy base and anchor. TP said he regressed the other days and had issues with timing his punch, shot hands too soon and lurched, needed to remain more patient.

Strengths

Highly technical. Very precise in his blocking angle and the placement of his inside foot, able to immediately establish optimal positioning to seal off defender and establish strong anchor for run block. Attention to detail in how he executes his block and assignment play after play. I like this, because I think it reflects a player who will respond to coaching, be consistent and reliable.

His best attribute might be his hands. Excellent hand speed. Accurate hand placements. Controls blocks with firm grip and can get hands inside or onto shoulder pads. Defender's swipe knocks his punch away, but he immediately replaces his hands and regains control on the block. In my opinion, this is a key advantage compared to Jamon Brown, because Brown did not have fast hands.

Intelligent on the field. Makes blocking audibles for rest of line at the LOS. On short yardage run, he reads defensive formation and tells the G to block the LB, then as Paul is blocking the defensive lineman his eyes are scanning to see whether the TE is in trouble on his block. Smart and quick reaction to slot CB blitz from a tight alignment.

Ideal build for NFL guard. Long arms, body weight distribution in legs and lower body, not too tall, but not short.

Good initial quickness out of his stance. Good contact balance.

Maintains wide base in pass pro with sound and disciplined spacing of steps moving laterally. Head up, proper body posture in pass sets, head over feet.

Able to settle down bull rushes and hold ground.

Within a confined area has a very good ability to mirror the defender and not get pulled out of position by fakes or countermoves. The effective size of this "mirror zone" is limited, because he doesn't have elite lateral range, but within that zone he doesn't get beat, lose his balance or get into compromised body positions. His head stays up, his feet wide, his shoulders square and he can shift his body weight back and forth.

Does not overreact to head and shoulder fakes. When he recovers he doesn't panic or overcommit, he keeps his body in good position to prevent the defender from unleashing an inside countermove. This forces the defender to continue to go to the outside and Paul sometimes can push them past the QB.

Showed solid burst of speed on pull block.

Has experience playing on both the left and right side of the line, both at G and at OT.

High character, intelligent off the field, will be great in the community. Character was one of the best traits with Tremayne Anchrum as a prospect. SJD is very intelligent. Paul is in that mold, similar to both of those guys.

Weaknesses

Not a Saffold. Not a people mover who will road grade. Does not generate movement on combo blocks. Not a drive blocker.

Average lateral range. Below average ability in confined spaces to turns his body and redirect. Average speed getting out on a screen pass. Average flexibility and overall agility. Not a great 2nd level blocker, but hard to tell because from the T spot he didn't do much of that.

Below average lateral recovery. If he gets in trouble, he typically is beaten, he's not going to save it. Won't have many clean sheet seasons, he'll likely give up some sacks in the NFL.

Repeatedly smoked by inside moves, both in pass protection and on run blocks. Once he sets his post foot, he struggles to move that foot laterally to react and recover against a quick inside move.

Relies on grabbing the jersey of defender to maintain control, which could become source of holding penalties if more skilled or athletic NFL defenders can pull away from him.

Can get knocked off balance by superior power.

Doesn't handle twists well, struggles to react and recover in time to pick up the 2nd defender. Made a mental mistake on a run play and allowed free penetration.

Can't handle edge speed and doesn't have enough lateral quickness to stay outside at OT in the NFL as a starter. Projects as a G who will only play OT in a backup role. Paul said he sees himself as a LG/RT and since he's been playing RT, if a team moved him back to LG, there would likely be a period of adjustment as he goes back to being on the left side of the line compared to the right and playing on the interior and not on the edge.

I have concerns about whether he's addicted to football. He loves music. In an interview, he said that he's motivated by "creativity". He has an artistic, intellectual and mild mannered personality that some coaches might consider to be "too soft" for an NFL lineman. Not a glass eater. Not one of those players who eats, drinks and sleeps football. Does he love the game or is it more of a hobby for him?

Not a prototypical zone blocking scheme OL, because he doesn't have great quickness and range, but despite his size he's not a power scheme guard either, because he lacks aggression and play strength.

Overage prospect.

Pro Comparison and Grade

Laken Tomlinson (1st round, 28th overall 2015, Detroit Lions, Duke), 3rd round grade.

Tomlinson was considered to be a 1st round bust when he was in Detroit, but revived his career with the Niners and is now considered to be a good NFL guard. His contract with the Jets has a $13.3 million salary. It took Tomlinson about 3 to 4 seasons before he was considered to be a solid starter. If Paul followed a similar developmental curve, he could be close to 28 years old by the time he's a "good" NFL player.

I view Paul as an eventual starting NFL guard. My projection is that Paul will be a good pass blocker. He likely won't be as impactful of a run blocker, but he should be reliable, especially for a zone or gap scheme team.

Paul has good technique and he's very smart, so I could see him earning playing time sooner rather than later, maybe even Day 1 as a rookie, depending on a team's depth chart.

If we made a list for priority Day 3 prospects for the Rams that might yield Jordan Fuller type unexpected value, I'd advocate for Chris Paul's name to be near the top of that list. He has good physical and mental traits to become a quality NFL player and I think he's ranked too low by draft experts. They might only see him as a bottom of the roster or PS type, but perhaps things will go surprising great for Chris Paul in the NFL.