FanPost

Should the Rams Trade Matt Gay after the Draft?

A Good Problem to Have

As a 5th round rookie with the Bucs in 2019, Matt Gay crushed a long FG playing against the Rams. I was surprised they gave up on him so quickly. So, when the Rams signed him off of the Colts' practice squad, I was optimistic that he'd be able to solve the kicker search that began after the team parted ways with Greg Zuerlein. Things have worked out better than anyone could have imagined as Gay was one of the best kickers in the NFL last season. Of course, that is now creating a different type of problem. Can the Rams financially afford to keep Gay long term?

A factor that complicates the situation is there is a kicker in this year's draft who I think could be really good in the NFL. My comp for him is Evan McPherson, who was a rookie for the Bengals last year and was an early 5th round pick. For a thought experiment, ff we could force a trade to happen, would it be worthwhile to trade Matt Gay for McPherson?

The Financials

The Rams tendered Gay on a 1 year contract for $2.54 million. If they wanted to sign Gay to a multiyear contract, consider that Justin Tucker has the highest K salary in the NFL at $5 million. Recently, the Falcons signed Younghoe Koo to a 5 year contract with an annual salary of $4.85 million.

Koo was an UDFA in 2017 out of Georgia Southern. He flopped with his first team, the Chargers. Michael Badgley, the "Money Badger" temporarily appeared to solve their kicking problems with a good 2018 season, but he progressively struggled and had a miserable 2020 season. Badgley wasn't able to take advantage of later opportunities with the Titans and Colts and is currently a free agent.

Meanwhile, Koo turned into an extremely accurate kicker for the Falcons. Over the last 3 seasons, he's made 87 out of 94 FG attempts (92.6%). He doesn't have the strongest leg (career long 54) and isn't great at kickoffs (51.8% touchback percentage).

I think that due to his stronger leg, Matt Gay would command a higher market value compared to Koo and very reasonably could ask to be the highest paid K in the league. Let's just ballpark the number at a $5.25 million salary. Over a 4 year period, that comes out to $21 million.

Evan McPherson's rookie deal is 4 years for a total of $3.8 million. So, our hypothetical Matt Gay contract over the same duration would cost $17.2 million more, a per season additional cost of $4.3 million.

Is it worthwhile to pay Gay 550% as much as McPherson? Gay had a great season, but McPherson was also outstanding, making 9 out of 11 FGs from 50+ yards in the regular season and he had ice water in his veins with clutch playoff kicking. McPherson's 60.4% touchback rate wasn't quite as good as Gay's 63.7% rate, but Gay had 4 kickoffs go out of bounds, a high number (Koo and McPherson had 1 each). Gay is also 28 years old, while McPherson turns 23 in July.

The Rams can't trade for McPherson, plus he's already burned a year of that rookie contract, but is there a kicker in the draft who could provide potential salary cap savings without causing the Rams a substantial dropoff compared to Gay's performance? I think there might very well be one.

Through the Fog

Cade York was a record setting kicker at LSU. He was a true junior, 21 years old, 6'1'' tall and 206 pounds. In high school, he made a 59 yard FG in an all star game.

As a freshman, he got off to an inconsistent start. He only made 5 out of 10 kicks between 40 and 49 yards that season. He's made the most 50+ yard FGs in school history, going 15 out of 19 from that range over his 3 year career, which is 78.9%. Matt Gay in the NFL has made 71.4% of his kicks from 50+ yards.

York has connected from 56 and 57 yards, the latter coming in the final minute in foggy conditions to beat Florida in 2020.

McPherson is 5'11'' tall and 185 pounds, so he's smaller than York. McPherson wasn't quite as good in 2020 at Florida as the previous year. He only had a 56.4% touchback rate in college, which is mediocre (Jordan Stout of PSU, one of the punter prospects I wrote about, had a 90.8% touch back rate last season and a combined 87.8% touchback rate over his last 2 seasons. Cameron Dicker, Jake Carmada, Andrew Mevis and Matt Araiza all were between 70 and 79% in TB rate over a 2 year period.) McPherson was a combined 14 out of 20 (70%) from 40+ yards in college. York was 26/37 (70.1%) from 40+ yards at LSU.

Lance Zierlein gives York a 5.93 draft grade. He gave McPherson a lower grade, 5.85, last year with a 6th round draft projection. LZ says York should be a good NFL kicker, has instant lift on kicks, should have leg strength to handle kickoff duties, when he misses tends to pull the ball to the left, his onside kickoffs are too easy to handle.

York did not handle kickoffs at LSU, they had a different player do the KO.

York has a consistent and compact approach, he gets the ball up quickly after contact. His personality is good for a kicker, similar to McPherson's coolness, even a long kick under pressure York comes off as having a "it's not a big deal" mentality, just trusting in his technique and ability.

I also watched some of the other kicker prospects in this draft and I don't think they are as talented. Issues with striking the ball consistently and ball control, I think York is the best of the ones I watched and that is how LZ has them graded.

I think the draft boards are too low on York.

ESPN 283rd overall (UDFA)

Oliver Hodgkinson 237th (7th round)

Shane Hallam 214th (compensatory 6th rd)

Brian Bosarge 305th (UDFA)

In PFF's mock draft simulator, Cade York doesn't even appear in the sim, you don't have the option to draft him.

In Fanspeak's mock draft sim, with their own draft board, he's the top ranked K, but only ranked 343rd overall.

York is the 3rd highest graded K on NFL.com since 2014. The only higher graded kicking prospects were Roberto Aguayo, who was a 2nd round pick by the Bucs in 2016 and Jose Borregales, who was an UDFA last year. Borregales spent his rookie season on Tampa's practice squad. Aguayo was a huge draft bust.

Several K draft picks didn't work out for the teams that made them, even when the K went on to be a successful NFL kicker. Prior to McPherson, the Bengals drafted Jake Elliott in the 5th round, but he lost the kicking competition in the preseason and was put on the PS. The Eagles signed him off the PS when their K got injured.

I have Cade York as a 5th round prospect.

If I were the Rams and York was still available later in the draft, I would strongly consider drafting him, then I would attempt to trade Gay for whatever I could get, even if was only a future late round pick. It isn't personal, it is just business. If I could acquire a younger and far cheaper K on a longer contract, it is tempting to do that, then reallocate the dollars saved towards other positions instead of paying top of the market to keep Matt Gay.