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Random Ramsdom: Frelund’s analytics predicts Rams 2021 win total

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NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos C. Morgan Engel-USA TODAY Sports

NFL network’s Cynthia Frelund once again applied her predictive analytics simulations to determine the projected win totals and standings for each NFL team. In the NFC, she has the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the team with the highest win total and the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers in second and third place in that order.

In a close fourth place with a predicted win total of 9.9 wins is the Los Angeles Rams. Frelund points out the turnover on the defense including the coordinator as a factor and while her formula may account for it, makes no mention of the upgrades on the offensive side of the ball. She does point out that defensive studs Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald will be a force but the math apparently indicates that won’t be enough to win the division.

Frelund predicted in 2020 that the LA Rams would finish with 8.8 wins and then the Rams actually finished with 10 wins. Frelund’s analytics predicted last season that the Philadelphia Eagles would finish with 9.3 wins and they only won four games. The New York Jets were to win 7.3 games as predicted in 2020 but actually won two. And the Buccaneers were predicted to win 8.8 games by Frelund’s projections and actually went on to win 11.

So for what it’s worth, the NFL analytics expert’s mathematical model has the Rams placing into the wild card category behind the predicted NFC West champion 49ers but ahead of the Arizona Cardinals, another projected wild card team, and well ahead of the Seattle Seahawks who would be looking at an early exit without a playoff spot.

What do you think of these predictions?

And now for today’s links:


McVay: DL A’Shawn Robinson on track to play vs. Bears, RB Sony Michel also expected to be ready (

Notable Rams-Bears games through the years (

Sean McVay says Rams are preparing for both Justin Fields and Andy Dalton (RamsWire)

How will the Bears challenge the LA Rams at SoFi Stadium? (RamblinFan)


2021 NFC win-total projections: 49ers, Rams, Cards make playoffs; Seahawks odd team out in West (

2021 AFC win-total projections: Browns win North; Steelers miss playoffs altogether (

2021 NFL triplets rankings: Packers, Bills climb; Falcons plummet (

Houston Texans officially name veteran Tyrod Taylor starting QB (ESPN)