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Daviyon Nixon draft scouting report

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Last December, Mel Kiper ranked Iowa DT, Daviyon Nixon, as the 10th overall prospect in this draft and the best defensive tackle. As time has passed, Nixon has progressively slipped down boards. Last month, Kiper said that after discussions with NFL teams, he believes Nixon will be a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Why was Kiper so high on this player and was he right that he's a top 10 talent? Could he be a huge steal for the Rams? Here is a good video made by Rob Donaldson, highlighting Nixon's abilities:

Daviyon Dominating

Background

6'3 1/8'' tall, 313 pounds, 35 1/8'' arms, 83 3/4'' wingspan, 9 1/4'' hands (pro day)

4.90 sec (40 time), 1.66 to 1.70 sec (10 yard split), 28.5'' vert, 8'10'' broad, 4.71 sec (shuttle) 7.56 to 7.68 sec (3 cone), didn't do bench press.

Nixon is a good athlete for his size. For example, compare his measurements to the numbers for A'Shawn Robinson from Alabama, who was was a 2nd round pick (46th overall) in 2016 and was a prospect who had been widely expected to be a 1st round pick in that draft (he was the 16th overall prospect per SI's draft rankings.)

ARob: 6'3 5/8'' tall, 307 pounds, 34.5'' arms, 83.5'' wingspan, 10.5'' hands. Very similar size.

5.20 sec (40 time), 1.78 sec (10 yard split), 26'' vert, 8'10'' broad, 4.74 sec (shuttle) 7.8 sec (3 cone), 22 bench reps. Similar overall, but Nixon has a slight edge over Robinson. At Bama, ARob wasn't much of a pass rusher, he's more of a big, strong, versatile DL player who can stop the run and push the front of the pocket. Nixon is more of a dynamic playmaker.

Redshirt Junior. Name pronounced "DAVE-ee-un". Turns 23 years old in December. Criminal justice major.

Grew up in North Chicago, Illinois. Moved to Wisconsin in 5th grade, then back to IL for 6th grade, then lived with mom in Georgia in 7th grade, then moved back with dad and brother to IL for 8th grade, then back to Kenosha, Wisconsin for high school.

Has a learning disability. Always struggled with grades. Got teased by other kids, was disruptive and acted out in school. Coach from Illinois told him that colleges weren't going to offer him a scholarship due to his poor grades. 3 star recruit. Got offers from Purdue and Iowa, but fell short of qualifying academically. Iowa arranged for him to enroll in JUCO at Iowa Western Community College. Won NCAA appeal and eventually qualified, but decided to stay semester at JUCO and played for IWCC in 2017. Had 44 tackles, 9.5 TFL and 3 sacks.

Got offer from Alabama while at JUCO, but decided to stay with Iowa. Took academic redshirt year in 2018 to try to improve his grades. Sports Illustrated says there was a "dorm room" incident in the fall of 2018. I was unable to find any substantive info beyond internet message board speculation and rumors. Sports Illustrated says he was cleared of wrongdoing. In January of 2019, he announced that he was entering the transfer portal. Instead of leaving, he remained at Iowa. Was a rotational backup player in 2019. Made one start. Had 29 tackles, 5.5 TFLs and 3 sacks.

First Team All American in 2020. In 8 starts, had 45 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, a FF, and a long INT return for a TD.

ESPN 102nd overall, 7th DT (late 3rd to 4th round)

CBSSports 43rd overall (2nd round)

Tony Pauline (PFN) 58th overall, 3rd DT (2nd round)

The Draft Network 64th overall, 5th interior defender (late 2nd to 3rd round)

PFF 114th, 9th interior defender (4th round)

Drafttek 42nd overall, 2nd best 3 tech DT (2nd round)

Sports Illustrated 4th DT (3rd round)

Daniel Jeremiah in the first version of his top 50 board had Nixon ranked 35th. Dropped to 45th in 2nd version, then dropped out of the top 50 in his 3rd version.

Bucky Brooks ranks as the 3rd best DT.

Chad Reuter says he's a late 1st to early 2nd round prospect.

Lance Zierlein 6.12 draft grade, 118th overall prospect, 7th best DT. LZ compares him to Ross Blacklock (2nd round, 40th overall 2020, Houston Texans, TCU.) Comparable grade to Bobby Brown (6.14), 113th overall. Higher grade than Neville Gallimore (6.00, 3rd round, 82nd overall in 2020, Dallas Cowboys, Oklahoma.)

LZ says Nixon is a disruptive and rangy 3 tech, but he lacks upper body strength and bulk, has below average counter moves, doesn't stack and control blocks and is vulnerable to runs right at him.

Personable, fun loving, upbeat, outgoing in interviews. Likes to play Madden football video games.

Strengths

Quick twitch athlete. Good athlete for his size and for the position. His testing numbers are better than the Pro Day scores for Kawann Short (2nd round pick 2013 from Purdue.) Threat to penetrate into backfield, quickness causes problems. Splits double teams, crashes in from the backside. Quick move to get by center, then redirects and tackles RB at LOS for no gain.

Sets up guards by attacking one shoulder, getting them to turn their hips, lunge or stop their feet, then reversing back the other way. Dips shoulder to get under and around the guard. Shimmy shake, then uses hands to split blockers. Presses the outside shoulder of the RG, then rips him to the side and is clean to the QB inside. Rip move under the RG, pressures QB on RPO. Swims by LG on RPO, splits the combo block, then causes INT by pressuring the QB.

Good hand usage. Swipes away or slaps the arms of the guard down. Swims over them, club move and rips through. Uses hand to seal the guard as he goes by. Fast and strong with initial punch. Uses hands to protect legs against cut blocks.

Slips through creases on GL and short yardage run downs. Uses his hands to disengage and be active against short yardage runs.

Has some play strength and power. Straight on with RG, engages with good pad level, then stacks him by extending arms, sheds to side and tackles the RB. Gets pad under the guard and drives him 3 yards backwards on run play. Flowing laterally, drives the C into the backfield on zone run. Lowers shoulder and knocks unprepared center to ground on twist, then turns quickly turns back and engages RG.

Quick to react and change directions against draws and screens. Read WR screen well. Smart to anticipate RB screen on long 3rd down.

Long arms to deflect passes at the LOS. Can zone drop in coverage close to line or into flat.

If you extrapolate his 2020 production over a 16 game NFL season, he'd have 90 tackles, 27 TFLs and 11 sacks. Aaron Donald has never had more than 69 tackles or more than 25 TFLs in a season. He didn't have more than 11 sacks in a season until his 5th year in the NFL. AD's final season at Pitt, he had 59 tackles, 28.5 TFLs and 11 sacks in 13 games. Nixon was on pace over 13 games to have 73 tackles, 22 TFLs and 9 sacks. He was essentially playing at an "AD in college" level, so it isn't a surprise why he was named an All American. Nixon wasn't just "pretty good", he was a dominating force at times last season.

Weaknesses

Only started 9 games, with only 8.5 career sacks at Iowa. Not even a one year wonder, more like a half a season wonder.

Overly reliant on quick moves against both the run and the pass. Not a bull rusher, lacks power move in his pass rush arsenal. Swims too much on both run and pass plays, constantly trying to get around the blocker instead of attacking them with brute strength and moving them out of the way. The center reach blocks him on zone run, the DT tries to swim in the opposite direction of the run, taking him out of position, when I think the better approach would be to attack the G and C with strength and try to carve out space.

3rd and 2, power run with pulling LT. DT is being sealed off by the RG and when he tries to swim over he gets caught with his pads high and the RG drives him backwards 4 yards. The RB picks up the first down by running into the area vacated by the DT.

Light in the pants, not enough anchor, only average ability to hold up at point of attack. Bigger, stronger linemen with long arms can engulf and neutralize him. Pushed backwards off line on short 3rd down.

Repeatedly driven sideways out of gap by double team. Moved out of gap by combo blocks. Washed out of his gap by double team on short 3rd down. Driven 3 yards off the LOS by double team on short 3rd down. Taken for ride by double team on zone run and driven 4 yards off the LOS.

When initial pass rush stalls, tends to get stuck at the LOS. Content to try to jump up and deflect the pass, doesn't push the pocket or have any counters to work himself closer to the QB. His "go to" pass rush moves not as effective if the guard is patient and technical.

Not an explosive runner. Lacks closing speed to the QB and the RB. Not a heavy hitter. Delay when changing directions on twists, doesn't have elite balance, agility or small area burst.

Details in technique and execution not sharp. Overran zone run, flowing too far, opening up cutback lane. Got sealed off on wide zone run, unable to get his shoulder upfield or drive with his legs to flow in the direction of the play. This causes a distortion in the line, because he is out of relation with the other DT and the DE, and the RB runs through the gap. Churned up in meat grinder by C and G on zone run, unable to hold at point of attack, gets turned around with back to the RB.

Better as a 4-3 scheme 3 tech DT than in a 3-4 defense.

Even though Iowa rotated in other DTs and didn't have Nixon play full time, he still seemed to get tired and worn down late in games in the 4th quarter. When he tired, his pad level drifted higher and his performance level and play strength substantially dipped. Stamina and conditioning needs to be monitored and improved.

Teams will have to evaluate if they think he's a future superstar or just a pass rush specialist. Might end up being more of a rotational player. See e.g. David Onyemata of the Saints, who plays about 55% of the team's defensive snaps and has averaged 4 sacks per season the last 4 years. He was a 4th round pick in 2016 (3 slots after Pharoh Cooper). Onyemata had an 88.2 PFF grade last season. He had an 81.9 grade in 2018. He's a good player, but he doesn't play as heavy a snap share as Aaron Donald. If a team is going to rotate in 3 or 4 different DTs, then like having a RB by committee approach, I don't know if it makes sense to draft the DT so early, because he's not going to be a "workhorse" DT.

Off field character requires investigation. Depending on what a team finds, might even end up being taken completely off of a team's board. Personality seems like a big kid. I have reservations about whether he is mature enough to handle the money and free time that comes with being a pro athlete. Will he stay focused on football and be dedicated to his craft or will he get caught up in the lifestyle and just want to have fun?

Coaches might need to adapt how they present information to account for his learning disability.

Pro Comparison and Grade

Akiem Hicks (3rd round 2012, 89th overall, Saints, Regina) and Amobi Okoye (10th overall pick 2007, Houston Texans, Louisville). 3rd round grade.

Hicks also had to go the JUCO route for academic reasons, playing at Sacramento City College. He was going to transfer to LSU, but was ruled ineligible due to recruiting violations and instead went up to Canada. In 2 seasons playing for Regina, he only had a total of 8 sacks, 1.5 in 2010 and 6.5 in 2011. Initially projected to be a late round or UDFA player, Hicks boosted his draft stock with a strong performance at the East West Shrine game. Nolan Nawrocki and other experts projected him to be a late 5th to 6th round draft pick.

When the Saints surprisingly picked him in the 3rd round, Bleacher Report gave the selection an "F grade". Other experts similarly were unimpressed. That year, the Saints didn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick, so Hicks was the first player they selected in the draft.

Hicks in his draft was 6'4 5/8'' tall, 318 pounds, 35 1/8'' arms, 84'' wingspan, 10 1/4'' hands. Pretty similar to Nixon. Hicks ran 5.21 sec in the 40, 1.76 sec (10 yard split), 4.86 sec (shuttle), 7.75 sec (3 cone), 31.5'' vert, 9' broad. Again, similar to Nixon's numbers. Hicks was almost exactly the same age as Nixon when he was drafted. Hicks is listed at 347 pounds, which is nearly 30 pounds heavier than the Combine.

For years, people predicted that Hicks would break out and realize his high potential for the Saints, but it never materialized. Hicks got into a sideline argument with Sean Payton. Hicks was frustrated and thought he was playing out of position. The team had switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and were trying to covert Hicks to a 4-3 DE, without success. Early in his 4th season, the Saints traded him to the Patriots.

Hicks played well in his short stint with NE, but instead of locking him up in FA, the Pats allowed him to sign a very reasonably priced 2 year contract with the Bears. This proved to be a mistake, as Hicks blossomed into a very good player for Chicago.

Okoye was only 19 years old when he was drafted. Things started out promising, as he had 4 sacks in the first 4 games of his rookie year. While he started 4 seasons for Houston, he was a disappointment relative to his high draft slot. He only had 11 sacks in those 4 seasons and never became an elite player.

When Houston hired Wade Phillips to be the DC, they switched from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense. Wade decided that Okoye was a poor fit for his scheme. There were also salary cap considerations. Houston waived Okoye prior to his 5th season. The Texans also had a new rookie, some dude named JJ Watt. The extrapolated full season stats I calculated above for Nixon, they would have been better than Watt's stats his final season at Wisconsin.

Neither the Saints nor the Texans reaped good dividends from either of these 2 draft picks. If the Saints had exercised more patience and insight into how to integrate Hicks into their defensive scheme, that 3rd round pick would have eventually paid off.

Daviyon Nixon has Pro Bowl level potential, he could end up being the best DT in this draft class. He has good pass rushing ability, which isn't easy to find in an interior defensive lineman. He could improve and become more consistent as a run defender, but he flashed potential to be good in that department as well. After watching some of the other DTs, I think Nixon has the highest ceiling of the top DT prospects.

Nixon comes with risk factors and just like Okoye and Hicks, even 4 years into his career it might be difficult to tell if he's a draft bust or a burgeoning star.

As great as Aaron Donald is, he's not going to play forever. Five years from now, AD might be approaching the twilight of his career. Like it or not, the Rams have to think about the future and life after AD. If Nixon develops according to a similar schedule to Akiem Hicks, he could emerge as a powerful force right when the Rams need him to pick up that mantle.