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What are the odds for each Rams skill player to hit 1,000 yards this season?

A player by player breakdown with only one goal in mind

NFL: AUG 22 Rams Scrimmage Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Robert Woods, WR

2019 yards: 1,134 receiving, 115 rushing, 1,249 total, 3 touchdowns

After failing to reach 1,000 yards in each of his first five seasons (although in 2017 he was roughly on pace to get there except for missing four games), Woods has averaged 76 yards per game in the last two years. That’s a 1,200 yard pace for a full season and there’s been no legitimate threat to Woods as Goff’s number one or number two option most weeks.

On top of that, Woods has been one of the most productive receivers on the ground, adding over 100 yards there in each of the last two seasons.

Odds of getting to 1,000: 900 out of 1000

Cooper Kupp, WR

2019 yards: 1,161 receiving, 4 rushing, 1,165 total, 10 touchdowns

Over the last two seasons, Kupp has averaged exactly 72 yards per game, a 16-game pace of 1,151 yards. He is basically the same age as Woods, so I don’t necessarily see a higher ceiling in Kupp’s future and I’d rate them about the same in terms of being a threat to gain 1,000 receiving yards. Kupp doesn’t get used in the running game though and he was really lost in the fray over the second half of 2019: 36 catches on 47 targets for 369 yards, five touchdowns, and three fumbles.

Both players had a game last season in which they were held to zero catches on four targets, but in Woods case he rushed for a touchdown when that happened. He also recovered from that game and Kupp never did after his 0-for-4.

Odds of getting to 1,000: 850 out of 1000

Cam Akers, RB

Rookie

Though he hasn’t played in the NFL yet, I’m rating Akers as the third-most likely Rams player to reach 1,000 total yards. Training camp hasn’t given us a clear picture of how the backfield share will go this season, and it never really could anyway. With regards to running backs, we often have to make a guess as to what will happen and then find out in a few months if we can boast about how our guess turned out to come true.

The only thing that we know for sure at this point is that Darrell Henderson is missing time due to injury and that Akers is getting reps with the starters. Pretty much the only thing holding LA back from starting their second round running back would be Henderson — is Malcolm Brown truly holding something back after six years with the same team? — and if he’s slipped behind him for any reason then I might guess that Akers gets the most reps.

Even a really ineffective Todd Gurley had 1,064 yards from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns over 15 games last year.

Were Akers a very solid bet to play in all 16 games and to earn at least 250 touches, then he’d obviously get to the 1,000-yard mark, but he’s an unproven player at the pro level, playing an injury prone position and potentially splitting carries three ways. Still, Los Snead Angeles drafted Akers with the vision in mind of him becoming an all-around back to showcase the offense around eventually.

Could that start right now? Gurley topped 1,200 yards in each of his first four seasons, including two under Jeff Fisher.

Odds to reach 1,000: 750 in 1000

Darrell Henderson, RB

2019 yards: 147 rushing, 37 receiving, 184 total, 0 touchdowns

Just by way of the fact that Henderson is the second-most likely running back to get the majority of the touches and because we really don’t know where these two backs stand both today and in weeks from now.

I would not be too concerned about his lack of production as a rookie who wasn’t pushing Gurley for carries. People tend to forget that not only did 2019 rushing champion Derrick Henry serve as a backup to DeMarco Murray for most of his first two seasons, but he wasn’t even that great in the first half of 2019. We didn’t really see flashes of anything until Henry’s second season and he struggled immensely during his first run as a starter in 2018.

Christian McCaffrey averaged 3.7 yards per carry as a rookie. Joe Mixon averaged 3.5 yards per carry as a rookie. Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram and Aaron Jones were all 1,000-yard backs in 2019 who weren’t productive as rookies. If not for his recent injury setback, Henderson may be going into the season as a solid number one option. That could still be the case for all we know right now, I’m just giving an edge to Akers based on what little information we do have.

Odds to reach 1,000: 700 in 1000

Van Jefferson, WR

Rookie

I’m putting Jefferson as the next most likely for a few reasons:

  • Sean McVay’s offense has proven it can support having three productive receivers and had a productive rookie in 2017.
  • If anything happened to either Woods or Kupp, I could believe that Jefferson would step in as the number two receiver.
  • It’s an only opinion, but I believe that Jefferson will be a good receiver in the NFL. That could be my biggest misstep here but you gotta believe in something.
  • Not only does there seem to be an abundance of really good young receivers who can step in and contribute right away, but we know that teams are feeding them the ball more than ever right away.
  • I don’t believe that Josh Reynolds will become a receiving threat at this stage in his career, even if the opportunity did present itself this season.

In any case, there is a huge drop-off in my odds between Henderson and the rest.

Odds to reach 1,000: 150 in 1000

Tyler Higbee, TE

2019 yards: 734 receiving, 734 total, 3 touchdowns

Is this shamefully low for a player who was third in receiving yards on the team last season? Higbee may have had a dominant stretch to end the year but that might only make it seem less likely to me that he becomes a 1,000-yard receiver; is that something that McVay wants to replicate throughout a 16-game season if he has all his players at full strength?

Higbee’s 734 yards was the most by a Rams tight end since Red Phillips in 1963 and Phillips’ 875 yards in 1962 is the franchise record for the position. A Rams tight end has never hit the 1,000-yard mark and with Higbee potentially not even the number one tight end on the team, this seems unlikely to me.

Odds to reach 1,000: 150 in 1000

Gerald Everett, TE

2019 yards: 408 receiving, 408 total, 2 touchdowns

During his most productive NFL season in 2019, Everett was on pace for 593 yards prior to his injury. Sharing targets with Higbee and Brycen Hopkins, I don’t see Everett getting the opportunities necessary for this to happen — but perhaps his odds are almost as good as Higbee’s.

Odds to reach 1,000: 140 in 1000

Josh Reynolds, WR

2019 yards: 326 receiving, 23 rushing, 349 total, 1 touchdown

Over 52 career games, his career-high single game total is 80 yards. When Reynolds has been targeted five or more times, he’s rarely been productive. His place on the offense has not been as a receiving threat and given the aforementioned wealth of receiving talent at the position league-wide right now, it would be surprising to see the Rams lean on a receiver who has not proven to be especially threatening through his first three seasons.

Odds to reach 1,000: 99 in 1000

Malcolm Brown, RB

2019 yards: 255 rushing, 16 receiving, 271 total, 5 touchdowns

Even though Brown could go into Week 1 as the number two running back, that hasn’t been an issue for him before. He’s been the number two running back for the Rams plenty of times in the last five seasons. He doesn’t elevate above that. If LA needed a running back because Akers and Henderson were unavailable, Brown might start one game in an emergency but I don’t think he’s a starter. Like C.J. Anderson in 2018, the team would sign someone and they’d probably be able to find a decent player on the open market.

Odds to reach 1,000: 50 in 1000

Nsimba Webster, WR

2019 yards: None

I think it would be perfectly okay to wonder if Webster has better odds to reach 1,000 yards than Reynolds. We know much more about what Reynolds looks like as an NFL starter. We don’t know much of anything about Webster. That leaves room for optimism but the truth is that so few undrafted free agents have become productive at this level.

Since 1970, there have been only 41 instances of a UDFA getting to 1,000 receiving yards. That includes recent players like Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Tyrell Williams and Allen Hurns. The Rams have only had one UDFA hit 1,000 receiving yards: J.T. Smith did it in 1986 and 1987.

Odds to reach 1,000: 25 in 1000

Brycen Hopkins, TE

Rookie

Adding this one in case we actually get to see a 1 in 1,000 come true.

Odds to reach 1,000: 1 in 1000