Countdown to Camp PM #2: How much will the Los Angeles Rams use RB Todd Gurley in 2019?

As we near the opening of training camp for the 2019 Los Angeles Rams, we’re counting down the top storylines.

• Countdown to Camp #5: Final shot for some Rams
• Countdown to Camp #5 Question: Who will be missed the most?
• Countdown to Camp #4: Rams continue to land star veterans
• Countdown to Camp #4 Question: Which star vet will have the most impact?
• Countdown to Camp #3: Out with the old, in with the new
• Countdown to Camp #3 Question: Which rookie will have the most impact?
• Countdown to Camp #2: Gurley’s knee

Well, this one’s gonna be a bit more straightforward albeit more difficult.

Today’s Countdown to Camp centered in on RB Todd Gurley and the nature of his left knee affecting things this year. I talked last month about how hard it is to gauge the entirety of Gurley’s 2019 season when the situation is going to require week-to-week reevaluations. Still, we can at least take a shot.

I’m setting a bar for Gurley at 200 carries. That’s 12.5 per game for 16 games. Will he have more or less?

More

We’re only talking a 13-carry load per game. Gurley carried the ball at least 13 times in each of the first 10 games last season. Despite the “wear and tear” of the season, he topped it in the divisional playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys too with 16 carries.

So there’s reason to think that as long as Gurley stays healthy and fresh over the whole year that he could average more than the 12.5 per rate needed to get to 200 carries.

Less

The Rams traded up in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft to nab RB Darrell Henderson. They did so to keep Gurley fresh and avoid that “wear and tear.” You don’t do that by rolling Gurley out to the same levels they did last year. In the three regular season games after the bye he played, Gurley hit 13 carries just once, and that was without RB C.J. Anderson spelling him. Across the three playoff games? He topped that 13-rush mark, but overall he rushed much less. In hi final three regular season games, Gurley had 46 carries; in the three playoff games, he had 30.

One thing to point out here is the availability of Henderson giving the Rams an out if Gurley aggravates the knee regardless of to what degree. Remember that last year, Gurley initially aggravated his knee in Week 1; the next week, he had 19 carries. There’s no way the Rams will expose him to the vulnerability of 19 carries a week after aggravating the knee if he does this year which, obviously, has a good chance of happening.

My personal statistical prediction? I went with 186 carries, but that’s a difference of less than a single carry per game to get him over 200.

What say you, Rams fans? More or less than 200 carries for Just Todd Gurley in 2019?