Pro Football Focus ran 10,000 simulations (that’s less than a quadrillion times), and has decided that while the Los Angeles Rams are a favorite to three-peat as division champions, they will probably fall short of the Vegas line for win total (10.5):
LAR (10.5, +120 over/-140 under) 9.68 wins, SEA (8.5, -140/+120) 8.77 wins, SF (8 -120/+100) 7.83 wins, ARZ (5, -110/-110) 5.5 wins
According to my Turf Show Times formula where I look at the Rams schedule and say “win” or “loss”, 9.68 wins seems a tad low. I suppose we shall see.
PFF gives the Rams a little more than a 50% chance to win the NFC West, while the Seattle Seahawks have a 30% chance, and the San Francisco 49ers have a 16.5% chance. The Arizona Cardinals will buy a lotto ticket.
Division Title Probability
LAR (-175) 50.9%, SEA (+275) 30.0%, SF (+500) 16.5%, ARZ (+2500) 2.6%
PFF also predicted playoff and Super Bowl possibilities, and it appears that Rams fans will have a reason to watch this fall:
LAR (-300 yes/+240 no) 69.0%, SEA (+140/-170) 50.4%, SF (+190/-240) 32.9%, ARZ (+900/-2000) 5.9%
Probability of Winning the Super Bowl
LAR (+1000) 8.3%, SF (+2500) 1.7%, SEA (+3300) 4.2%, ARZ (+8000) 0.1%
Strength of Schedule
LAR (16th in average opponent PFFELO rating), SF (17th), ARZ (19th), SEA (22nd)
If Rams Head Coach Sean McVay can make necessary midseason adjustments and health can continue to be on the Rams’ side, the Rams may round the corner as far as ushering in long-term prosperity as opposed to a brief interlude of success.
PFF also anointed a divisional MVP (both a quarterback and non-quarterback), and neither are on the Rams instead going with Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson and his teammate LB Bobby Wagner with Rams DL Aaron Donald being named non-QB runner up.
What do you think, Rams fans?