You can’t be right all the time.
The Los Angeles Rams are proof of that.
In the first two seasons under Head Coach Sean McVay, the Rams seemed like they couldn’t miss. They bet on McVay himself as the 31 year-old coach with no prior head coaching experience anywhere. They bet on QB Jared Goff even though QB Carson Wentz was still on the board only to see him go to the Philadelphia Eagles. They bet that an aging LT Andrew Whitworth could still be a reliable blindside tackle even if the Cincinnati Bengals were willing to let him leave. They bet on a Super Bowl run in just the second year of McVay’s reign. You could technically say they bet on DL Aaron Donald but that’s like betting on the sun to come up tomorrow.
It’s a pretty good track record in a short amount of time, but some of those bets didn’t pan out. First, they lost Super Bowl LIII to the New England Patriots after betting their gameplan (which remained the same for the biggest game of the year) would lead them to victory.
And now, their bet on RB Todd Gurley is coming undone.
Let me clarify that.
For his skill set and age, Gurley was always a good bet. But what the Rams are discovering is their bet on Gurley — specifically their financial department — was too much, especially at a position that’s become one of the least valued positions in the league.
The Rams gave Gurley a four-year, $57.5m contract extension last July right before the start of training camp heading into his fourth NFL season on a five-year rookie deal. Right off the bat, Gurley banked $21.95m thanks to a signing bonus. The deal also locked in $45m in guaranteed money.
On the most recent episode of the Spotrac Podcast, Managing Editor Michael Ginnitti said:
This is the kind of contract only a quarterback should get. The structure of this contract is ‘quarterbacks only’, and maybe not even that.
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If he’s not a three-down back, then he’s a very overpaid one-down back.
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And this is a mess that (the Rams) didn’t have to get into. They could have front-loaded this more…They didn’t have to guarantee that 2020 year at all, yet.
Back in March, Gurley’s 2019 salary, 2020 salary and 2020 roster bonus were all guaranteed. Now, if the Rams want to cut him, the franchise will have $35m in dead money. Had they cut him before March 15, when two years’ worth of salary the and roster bonus became guaranteed, the Rams would have saved $16.8m. Gurley’s cap hit in 2019 is $9.2m. It nearly doubles the following year to $17.25m. The following seasons see Gurley’s cap hit at $13.2m, $14.2m and more than $12.4m, respectively.
As Ginnitti said on the podcast, Gurley’s contract from a financial standpoint is a mess especially compared to New York Jets RB Le’Veon Bell’s deal.
As NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport recently said, Gurley’s days of “being the straight-up, every-down bell cow are probably over.” He added the franchise just wants Gurley to be at 100 percent when the season begins in September, but 100 percent of what exactly?
Jeff Howe of The Athletic tweeted back in March that a source said Gurley has arthritis in his knee which, as Mike Freeman of the Bleacher Report wrote, can slow a running back down “dramatically.” When the season starts, I’m sure that Gurley will still be “a focal point” in the Rams’ offense with different (maybe even fewer) responsibilities. Trading up to take Darrell Henderson with the 70th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft wasn’t the Rams slamming the panic button. It was just preparing what will likely be the inevitable — a life with less (and perhaps much less) Todd Gurley.
That future isn’t quite here yet and won’t be coming for a while, but it’s a future that will arrive well before Gurley’s contract expires. No team, not even the Rams, are going to pay Todd Gurley for the final three years of his contract in this condition.
Bet on it.