FanPost

Breaking Down the Rams Draft


I've always liked to break things down by numbers, and I've always had an unhealthy interest in all things Rams related. The amount of trades in the draft was intriguing to me, and specifically with the Rams, I wanted to break things down and see if I couldn't uncover some of the strategy behind the 2019 draft. I started this exercise out of my own curiosity but with a little extra effort I figured I could share the results and see what you all thought.

The easiest way to look at trades is the famous Jimmy Johnson trade chart that he established in the early 90s. Almost three decades later, does it still hold up? Are there any noticeable flaws in the chart? Have picks changed values over the years? Does it need updated? Do NFL teams actually use this as a baseline for trades?

Entering the NFL Draft the Rams had the following picks, each assigned with their own value:

1.31 - 600

3.94 - 124

3.99 - 104

4.133 - 39

5.169 - 23.4

6.203 - 9.8

7.251 - 1

Total Value - 901.2

Before looking at how the value changed throughout the draft I had the initial reaction of feeling as though the Rams added some good value early on in the draft with the trade downs. I also felt they gave back a lot of the value in trading up several times. Was my assumption right? Was it the Rams strategy to get some value with their most valuable piece and then use that to maneuver around the board later on? Did the Rams do more homework on 3rd-7th round prospects than most teams, knowing that's where the majority of their draft would end up?

Trade 1:

Falcons Receive:

1.31 - 600

6.203 - 9.8

Total - 609.8

Rams Receive:

2.45 - 450

3.79 - 195

Total - 645

Net - +35.2

The value of 35 is the equivalent to having an early fifth round pick (pick 5.141 has a value of 35). How many other teams were in competition with the Falcons to sneak back into the 1st round? We all know the value of a 5th year option in the first round, but with no quarterback picked in this range did it hurt the value of our pick? Does the Jimmy Johnson trade chart need to be tweaked to account for the value of the fifth year option? If pick 32 is worth 590, why is pick 33 worth 580? Shouldn't that fifth year option create a bigger difference between the two values? Could the value the Falcons gave up just be the going rate for a late first rounder in todays NFL?

If the Rams had gotten a lot of value in the trade it would tell me there were other teams in competition for the Rams pick. If the Rams had gotten little to no value, or negative value, that would tell me there was no competition for the Rams pick. A value of 35, while not significant, is still the value of a fifth round pick and that tells me the Rams may have had 1 or possibly 2 other options to trade back with. That's just my best guess though.

Trade 2:

Patriots Receive:

2.45 - 450

Total - 450

Rams Receive:

2.56 - 340

3.101 - 96

Total - 436

Net - (-14) (Value of pick 6.192 lost)

Assuming the Falcons had some competition for the Rams pick it would be intriguing to know what other options could have been on the table. Maybe the Rams could have picked earlier in the 2nd round sacrificing some value in the first trade while being able to pick a player they had rated over Rapp. Was Rapp the target all along and would the Rams have taken him at 31 if they didn't have a trade partner? I've read somewhere that Snead said he would've been comfortable taking Rapp at 31, but who knows if that's true. If the Rams thought Rapp could be had at pick 61 why did they trade back to 45 and then to 56, and then finally 61? Were they just monitoring the board (specifically safeties) while slowing moving down? Were they missing out on prospects they thought would be there at 45 or 56? It could have been that they didn't have any other trade partners at 31 that would allow them to get back so far in the second round.

It does make me wonder if the Rams were targeting someone else with pick 45. Sean Bunting and Dalton Risner went just before 45 and could have made sense for the Rams. There was a big run of offensive linemen and cornerbacks between picks 31 and 45 and the front office may have thought someone from one of those positions would fall to 45. If they could have a redo would someone other than Rapp be in horns?

List of players picked between 31 and 45 (Who the Rams may have been targeting):

Kaleb McGray OT, N'Keal Harry WR, Byron Murphy CB, Rock Ya Sin CB, Jawaan Taylor OT, Deebo Samuel WR, Greg Little OT, Cody Ford OT, Sean Bunting CB, Trayvon Mullen CB, Dalton Risner OT, Drew Lock QB, Jahlani Tavai ILB, Elgton Jenkins C

Trade 3:

Chiefs Receive:

2.56 - 340

Total - 340

Rams Receive:

2.61 - 292

5.167 - 24.2

Total - 316.2

Net - (-23.8) (Value of pick 5.168 lost)

This might be further evidence that the player the Rams wanted at 45 (or even 56) was picked before they anticipated, seeing as how the Rams keep moving down. It's also possible, seeing how the board was working, that they thought Rapp may fall further because at this point only one safety (Marquise Blair) had been picked since pick 31. With Rapp and Adderley still on the board they may have felt comfortable enough that either safety would be there 11 picks later, and then at 56, with both still on the board, surely at least one would last 5 more picks to 61. Was a safety the Rams plan A in the draft? Was the board working to their benefit greatly, allowing them to continue trading down?

It's also possible they thought someone else would be there at 56. Could the safeties have been plan C, with plan A falling through before pick number 45, and plan B getting picked somewhere in between 45 and 56? Erik McCoy (48), Miles Sanders (53) could have been the real target at 56, but with those two off the board they could have turned the attention to safety. Even though the Rams lost value in the trade with the Chiefs they could've still thought it would be worth the 5th round pick to only move down 5 picks, especially with both Adderley and Rapp still on the board. If the Chargers hadn't taken Adderley, could the Rams have taken him before Rapp?

It's also important to note that after the Rams got good value from the Falcons in trade 1, they weren't getting as much value over the next two trades. It's not as if teams were desperate to trade with the Rams, so it tells me that Snead was the one who went to these teams about a trade. That's just my own speculation though.

List of players picked between 45 and 56 (who the Rams may have been targeting):

Joejuan Williams CB, Greedy Williams CB, Marquise Blair S, Erik McCoy C, Ben Banogu OLB, Irv Smith Jr. TE, A.J. Brown WR, Drew Sample TE, Miles Sanders RB, Lonnie Johnson Jr. CB, Max Scharping OT

Trade 4:
Buccaneers Receive:

3.94 - 124
3.99 - 104
Total - 228

Rams Receive:

3.70 - 240
Total - 240

Net - +12

My first surprise during this analysis. I thought this is where the Rams started losing value in the draft, but according to the chart the Rams actually added the value of pick 7.197 in the trade. This is where I may question the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. I feel as if I would rather have 3.94 and 3.99 rather than just 3.70, but according to the chart the Rams actually added value here. What do you guys think about this one?

So why did the Rams trade up, and give up two third rounders in the process? Did they miss out on someone in between picks 31-45, or 45-56, and decide that they needed to start being more aggressive in the draft rather than letting another player slip? Maybe they just thought they had added enough value with their early trades to justify a trade up for a player they wanted, especially if they thought another team may have interest in Henderson. Guess what positions went at picks 73, and 74 in the draft? Running back. (David Montgomery to the Bears, and Devin Singletary to the Bills). In hindsight, it makes the Rams trade up look better and not so much like a reach. Did the Rams start a run on running backs (no pun intended) or did the Rams beat the Bears and or Bills to the draft rights to Henderson. Which of the three do you think is the better prospect?


Trade 5:
Patriots Receive:

3.101 - 96
4.133 - 39
Total - 135

Rams Receive:

3.97 - 112
5.162 - 26.2
Total - 138.2

Net - +3.2 (Value of pick 7.220)

This one looks like a wash when looking at the trade chart but to the eye test it looks like a win for the Patriots. Moving down only 4 spots so that you can move up 29 spots back into the 4th round looks like a pretty good deal for the Patriots, even if the chart tells us the Rams added the value of an early 7th round pick in this trade.

With the Rams feeling the need to move up only 4 spots they clearly felt that either the Patriots, Jaguars, Bucs, or Panthers had an interest in Bobby Evans. Jaguars and Bucs went safety, while the Panthers took a QB. The Patriots? OT Yodney Cajuste. Do the Patriots know whom the Rams are going to take while in trade discussions? Is that something that Snead would keep a secret, just telling the Patriots they want to move up for someone? You have to think the Patriots weren't in love with either Bobby Evans or Yodney Cajuste, otherwise they wouldn't sacrifice either player. Maybe they had the two graded equally, but it looks like the Patriots were one of the more flexible teams in the draft, willing to move around quite a bit, which would tell you they were confident in their draft board.

Trade 6:

Patriots Receive:

5.162 - 26.2
5.167 - 24.2
Total - 50.4

Rams Receive:

4.134 - 38.5
7.243 - 1
Total - 39.5

Net - (-10.9) (Value of 6.200)

The Rams and Patriots spent a lot of time on the phones together during this draft. This one is pretty simple, at this point in the draft you identify a player that can potentially fill a role on your team and then you go get that player. I'm not sure any two fifth round picks would give you more value than what the Rams think Greg Gaines will bring to the table. Can't help but like this trade, even if there was a good bit of value lost.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

We know the Rams came into the draft with a total draft value of 901.2, so how does the value look after all the trades and picks were complete?

Before Trades:

1.31 - 600
3.94 - 124
3.99 - 104
4.133 - 39
5.169 - 23.4
6.203 - 9.8
7.251 - 1
Total Value - 901.2

After Trades:

2.61 - 292
3.70 - 240
3.79 - 195
3.97 - 112
4.134 - 38.5
5.169 - 23.4
7.243 - 1
7.251 - 1

Total Value - 902.9

Net - +1.7

Since there were 3 trades with one team, who came out better in the negotiations between the Patriots and Rams?

Trade one: (-14) (From the Rams perspective)
Trade two: +3.2
Trade three: (-10.9)
Total: (-21.7)

Whether you think there are flaws in the trade chart or not, this is pretty strong evidence that the NFL uses it as a baseline for trades. If a team is desperate enough to move up or down the value is going to decrease. If you are willing to trust your board and be flexible you can take advantage of desperate teams in the draft who fall in love with one player. If there is competition for a pick, such as pick 31, especially if it's for a quarterback, you can get good value for trading down.

While i'm sure the Rams are grateful to have have the Patriots help them in maneuvering around the board, it did come at a price of what would equate to pick 5.173, the last pick in the 5th round. It's pretty clear that the Rams used their most valuable trade piece (pick 31) to add value to their draft ammunition, and then basically use all that added value to maneuver around the board for the rest of the draft. That's a fair price to pay for the flexibility to move up for specific players targeted, but it's still a value that can land you a player such as Aqib Talib in a trade, so it's not as though it's not worth anything. I would guess the Rams and Patriots have a good relationship, and it would be fair to assume you can look forward to these two teams working together in future drafts.

Is there anything the Rams could have done differently? Is it surprising that the Rams ended up with roughly the same amount of draft value as what they started even after several trades? Did I ask way to many questions throughout this fanpost? (lol) Thanks for reading, I had some fun digging up all this information and trying to uncover some of the Rams strategy during the draft. Is there anything of significance that I missed? Thoughts?