FanPost

Could the Rams draft the next Nate Solder?

There is a tackle in this draft class who is very similar to Nate Solder, a player the Giants recently made the highest paid left tackle in the NFL ($15.5 mill ave salary). If Solder were in the 2018 draft class, where would he rank in comparison to the other tackles and could the Rams end up drafting a player as good or better than him this year?

Solder's draft and career

Solder was the 17th overall selection in 2011 and remains the only tackle Bill Belichick has ever drafted in the first round (Matt Light was a 2nd round pick). The top of the 2011 draft was incredibly rich in talent (Von Miller, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, JJ Watt, Tyron Smith, etc.). The draft seemed to flatten out, however, beginning with Solder's draft slot until the middle of the 3rd round. The NFL draft can be fickle. Both Solder and David Bakhtiari went to Colorado. Solder is a bigger player with longer arms, but other than that, if you compared their tape, I'm not sure I understand why one player gets drafted in the middle of the 1st round and the other player is drafted in the middle of the 4th round. The pick the Pats used on Solder was obtained from the Raiders in 2009 in a trade for Richard Seymour. That trade was important, because otherwise the Patriots either would have had to trade up (in which case they wouldn't have gotten Chandler Jones in a later draft), pass on taking a tackle, or used their regular pick to take a different tackle (presumably Gabe Carimi, who turned out to be a bust).

The first thing that impresses me about Solder is his interviews. He's a very mature person with a team-oriented personality. As a prospect coming out of college, he had a good kick slide, but he overset frequently and would be beaten back to the inside. His anchor was weak and his pad level was high, making him very vulnerable to bull rushes. On 45 degree sets he wasn't quick enough and got beat around the outside edge by speed. This myriad of technical problems resulted in him often turning pass rushers completely loose and allowing them to get to the QB. On run blocks, the combination of his lack of strength, high pad level and a narrow base made him below average. Solder also had big struggles at the Senior Bowl, both during the practices and in the game.

Despite the raw aspect to his game, scouts were intrigued by Solder's potential. He was a very athletic converted TE and the combination of his large size and good feet led some to believe that he had a very high ceiling as a left tackle. Anthony Castonzo of Boston College was believed to be a safer pick, but instead of drafting him the Patriots decided to go with Solder.

As a rookie, Solder started 11 games at right tackle. Matt Light retired after that season, at the age of 33. The following year, Solder moved over to left tackle. While Solder has generally been very solid there for the Patriots, he's never really broken into the "elite" level the way Whitworth did (which is ironic, because Whitworth was considered to have a much lower ceiling when he was drafted compared to someone like Solder). The reason the Giants paid Solder so much money is their other "high ceiling" first round developmental project, Ereck Flowers (9th overall selection), hasn't worked out.

The support structure with the Patriots likely has helped Solder in his career. The Pats have a legendary offensive line coach named Dante Scarnecchia. The Pats offense is built around quick passes by Tom Brady, which probably inflate the line's pass blocking statistics by giving them pass blocking snaps where they don't have to protect for very long. The Pats version of a spread system also opens up quick hitting running plays, so an athletic lineman who might not be as good at generating movement with power can still thrive. Solder also benefited in some of his seasons by having talented left guards playing next to him, including Logan Mankins.

Solder has had to overcome adversity off the field during his NFL career. Prior to the 2014 season, he had testicular cancer. The following year, his infant son was diagnosed with a rare form of kidney cancer. More than 2 years later, his son is still undergoing treatment.

If Solder were in the 2018 draft, I would not give him a 1st round grade. I don't like developmental projects with so many holes in their game. I'd give Solder a 3rd round grade, essentially tied with Kolton Miller of UCLA. By implication, I like a player such as Tyrell Crosby better. Crosby is also underpowered (Vita Vea overwhelmed him both on pass and run block snaps), but Crosby at this point in his career is more reliable in pass pro than Solder was entering the NFL.

In the end, the Pats should be very happy with the production they got from the Solder selection and find a successor for Matt Light. Castonzo also would have worked if they had taken him instead.

Who is potentially the next Nate Solder?

The player in this class who I think is most similar to Solder is Brian O'Neill of Pitt. Like Solder, O'Neill is a former TE, is very athletic, had a poor Senior Bowl, is underpowered and gets beaten in pass protection due to technical flaws. This is how their measurables compare:

Solder: 6'8'', 319 pounds, 35 1/2'' arms, 5.05 (40 time), 1.74 (10 yard split), 21 bench, 9'2'' broad, 32'' vert, 7.44 (3 cone), 4.34 (shuttle)

O'Neill: 6'7'', 297 pounds, 34 1/8'' arms, 4.82 (40 time), 1.70 (10 yard split), 22 bench, 8'11'' broad, 29.5 vert, 7.14 (3 cone), 4.50 (shuttle)

The differences between the two players in my opinion is that O'Neill moves better than Solder in games, but if Solder is underpowered, then O'Neill is way underpowered (notice that he weighs less, yet still can't jump as well despite being lighter) and O'Neill is even more leaky in pass protection than Solder was. For those reasons, I think Solder is a better prospect overall than O'Neill, but if I'm giving Solder a 3rd round grade, the gap between he and O'Neill (who I gave a 4th round grade) is relatively small.

The experts draft projections for O'Neill are all over the map. The ranking by CBS Sports for O'Neill translates to a 7th round pick. Ourlads lists O'Neill as a round 4 to 5 pick. Neither Bucky Brooks nor Mike Mayock have O'Neill in their top 6 for tackle rankings. Drafttek ranks O'Neill as the 21st best player and the 2nd best offensive tackle. Chad Reuter's most recent mock draft has him being drafted 37th overall. Daniel Jeremiah ranks O'Neill as the 45th best player on his big board.

I'm not changing my grade on O'Neill at this time, but I do see why some scouts like him. If you could get a Nate Solder type player, pay him a rookie contract instead of $15 mill a year, and possibly do it with a 2nd round pick where you don't even have to use a 1st rounder, there is potential payoff.