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Dubs' Pigskin Playoff Pick 'Em & Regular Season Wrapup

The 2015 NFL regular season is now in the history books. The Rams finished in disappointing fashion, with a 19-16 OT loss to the lowly San Francisco 49ers, ensuring yet another sub-.500 season. Dubs challenged the leader in the weekly picks contest right to the bitter end, finally succumbing in the last week of the season.

By Frank "Dubs" Dobozy

The 2015 NFL regular season is now in the history books. The Rams finished in disappointing fashion, with a 19-16 OT loss to the lowly San Francisco 49ers, ensuring yet another sub-.500 season. Dubs challenged the leader in the weekly picks contest right to the bitter end, finally succumbing in the last week of the season.

Dubs' Pigskin Pick 'em & Rams Game Preview returned this year for a third season. I predicted the winners (both straight up and against the spread) for all 256 regular season games. In addition, each week I featured 3 games in my "Hot Picks Against The Spread".

Pickwatch is a site devoted to tracking weekly picks results from NFL experts, analysts, and media types. This year, they tracked 134 experts on a weekly basis. I competed against them again this season, and published the results on a weekly basis. In each of the last two seasons, I managed to tie for first place in the overall standings. Did Dubs make it three years in a row?

Week 17 Results

Week Wins Straight Up Wins vs Spread Hot Picks vs. Spread Rams Straight Up
Week 17 9  7 8  7  1 2  1 0  1
Season Record 168  88 159  92  5 35  15  1 8  8
Win Percentage 65.6 63.3 70.0 50.0

How did I fare against the experts in Week 17? Week 17 was full of difficult games to choose a winner from. On top of that, there were many upsets. My 9-7 record straight up was enough to finish the year in a tie (with Dave Richard of CBS Sports) for 2nd place in the overall standings, three wins behind the season champion Josh Katzowitz of Forbes. My 8-7-1 record against the spread was an adequate result in a difficult week. I had an excellent year picking against the spread. A 63% winning percentage will make you a lot of money. My Hot Picks Against The Spread? Carolina and Cincinnati both won and covered the spread. Kansas City won but didn't cover the 7.5 point spread. Record for the week: 2-1. If you had bet on all 51 of my Hot Picks Against The Spread this season, you would have made a small fortune. The target in wins every year is to have a winning percentage of 70% in picking straight up and 60% when picking against the spread.

2015 NFL Team Records

NFL ATS RANKINGS
Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under
Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away
Arizona Cardinals 13-3-0 6-2-0 7-1-0 9-7-0 3-5-0 6-2-0 9-7-0 4-4-0 5-3-0
Atlanta Falcons 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 2-14-0 1-7-0 1-7-0
Baltimore Ravens 5-11-0 3-5-0 2-6-0 5-9-2 1-6-1 4-3-1 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0
Buffalo Bills 8-8-0 5-3-0 3-5-0 8-7-1 5-3-0 3-4-1 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0
Carolina Panthers 15-1-0 8-0-0 7-1-0 11-5-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 10-5-1 5-2-1 5-3-0
Chicago Bears 6-10-0 1-7-0 5-3-0 7-8-1 1-6-1 6-2-0 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0
Cincinnati Bengals 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 12-3-1 4-3-1 8-0-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0
Cleveland Browns 3-13-0 2-6-0 1-7-0 5-10-1 2-5-1 3-5-0 8-8-0 5-3-0 3-5-0
Dallas Cowboys 4-12-0 1-7-0 3-5-0 5-11-0 2-6-0 3-5-0 6-10-0 5-3-0 1-7-0
Denver Broncos 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 8-6-2 3-5-0 5-1-2 6-9-1 2-5-1 4-4-0
Detroit Lions 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 9-7-0 6-2-0 3-5-0
Green Bay Packers 10-6-0 5-3-0 5-3-0 9-7-0 4-4-0 5-3-0 5-11-0 1-7-0 4-4-0
Houston Texans 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 8-7-1 3-5-0 5-2-1
Indianapolis Colts 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0 8-8-0 3-5-0 5-3-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11-0 4-4-0 1-7-0 7-8-1 4-4-0 3-4-1 10-6-0 5-3-0 5-3-0
Kansas City Chiefs 11-5-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 8-8-0 3-5-0 5-3-0 8-7-1 3-5-0 5-2-1
Miami Dolphins 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 5-11-0 2-6-0 3-5-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0
Minnesota Vikings 11-5-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 13-3-0 6-2-0 7-1-0 4-11-1 3-5-0 1-6-1
New England Patriots 12-4-0 7-1-0 5-3-0 7-6-3 4-1-3 3-5-0 9-7-0 4-4-0 5-3-0
New Orleans Saints 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 8-7-1 4-3-1 4-4-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0
New York Giants 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 8-7-1 4-4-0 4-3-1 11-5-0 6-2-0 5-3-0
New York Jets 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 8-7-1 5-3-0 3-4-1 8-8-0 5-3-0 3-5-0
Oakland Raiders 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 8-8-0 2-6-0 6-2-0 8-6-2 5-2-1 3-4-1
Philadelphia Eagles 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 8-6-2 4-3-1 4-3-1 6-10-0 4-4-0 2-6-0
San Diego Chargers 4-12-0 3-5-0 1-7-0 8-8-0 2-6-0 6-2-0 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0
San Francisco 49ers 5-11-0 4-4-0 1-7-0 7-9-0 5-3-0 2-6-0 7-9-0 1-7-0 6-2-0
Seattle Seahawks 10-6-0 5-3-0 5-3-0 8-7-1 4-4-0 4-3-1 7-9-0 4-4-0 3-5-0
St. Louis Rams 7-9-0 5-3-0 2-6-0 7-8-1 5-3-0 2-5-1 4-12-0 3-5-0 1-7-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0
Tennessee Titans 3-13-0 1-7-0 2-6-0 4-11-1 2-5-1 2-6-0 9-6-1 4-3-1 5-3-0
Washington Redskins 9-7-0 6-2-0 3-5-0 9-7-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 9-7-0 3-5-0 6-2-0

NFL Crystal Ball

Dubs' Pigskin Playoff Picks & Predictions

Home Away Winner Score
Wildcard Weekend
Houston Kansas City Kansas City 17  14
Cincinnati Pittsburgh Cincinnati 23  20
Minnesota Seattle Seattle 16  13
Washington Green Bay Green Bay 27  24
Divisional Weekend
Denver Kansas City Denver 19  16
New England Cincinnati Cincinnati 31  24
Carolina Seattle Seattle 23  17
Arizona Green Bay Arizona 27  17
Championship Weekend
Denver Cincinnati Denver 20  17
Arizona Seattle Seattle 21  20
Super Bowl 50
Seattle Denver Denver 24  20

Of the 12 teams qualifying for the playoffs, Seattle and Denver have the two best defenses entering the postseason. As an added bonus, both teams had key players who were injured but are now healthy and ready to go for the playoffs (Peyton Manning and Marshawn Lynch). The key ingredients for a playoff run are there in spades for both the Seahawks and Broncos. New England might have been in the mix if not for the extensive injury list that may be impossible to overcome. Wouldn't it be poetic drama to see Peyton Manning retire as a Super Bowl champion?

An interesting statistic for the Wildcard Weekend (and one of the reasons I picked three road teams to win):

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