clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2015 St. Louis Rams: Run-Pass Disparity Under Jeff Fisher-Coached Teams

Do Jeff Fisher teams actually run the ball more often than they pass it?

By 3k
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2015 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams seemingly made a statement about what kind of identity they want on offense: a physical, no-nonsense, run-oriented throwback unit.

That being the case, I wanted to take a look at how teams have done under Jeff Fisher in terms of run/pass disparities. I'm leaving out the actual success of the two facets today and just looking at volume. Here's the last ten years of Jeff Fisher-coached teams, their run/pass percentages and some leaguewide numbers:

year QB RB W L T runs run% passes pass% NFL runs NFLr% NFL passes NFLp% NFL runs high NFL passes high
2014 Austin Davis Tre Mason 6 10 0 395 43.41% 515 56.59% 427.75 43.36% 558.72 56.64% 551 (Houston, 9-7) 661 (Indianapolis, 11-5)
2013 Sam Bradford Zac Stacy 7 9 0 426 45.71% 506 54.29% 433.47 43.34% 566.75 56.66% 546 (Buffalo, 6-10) 681 (Cleveland, 4-12)
2012 Sam Bradford Steven Jackson 7 8 1 410 42.40% 557 57.60% 435.16 43.91% 555.88 56.09% 536 (Seattle, 11-5) 740 (Detroit, 4-12)
2010 Kerry Collins Chris Johnson 6 10 0 406 46.14% 474 53.86% 435.00 44.63% 539.66 55.37% 556 (Kansas City, 10-6) 679 (Indianapolis, 10-6)
2009 Vince Young Chris Johnson 8 8 0 499 51.18% 476 48.82% 440.25 45.27% 532.28 54.73% 607 (New York Jets, 9-7) 609 (Seattle, 5-11)
2008 Kerry Collins Chris Johnson 13 3 0 508 52.86% 453 47.14% 441.22 46.07% 516.44 53.93% 592 (Baltimore, 11-5) 636 (New Orleans, 8-8)
2007 Vince Young LenDale White 10 6 0 543 53.92% 464 46.08% 437.06 45.07% 532.66 54.93% 543 (Tennessee, 10-6) 652 (New Orleans, 7-9)
2006 Vince Young Travis Henry 8 8 0 469 51.20% 447 48.80% 451.47 46.85% 512.16 53.15% 537 (Atlanta, 7-9) 630 (Green Bay, 8-8)
2005 Steve McNair Chris Brown 4 12 0 397 40.06% 594 59.94% 449.22 46.61% 514.50 53.39% 549 (Pittsburgh, 11-5) 670 (Arizona, 5-11)
2004 Billy Volek Chris Brown 5 11 0 420 41.63% 589 58.37% 450.88 46.87% 511.06 53.13% 618 (Pittsburgh, 15-1) 598 (Green Bay, 10-6)

The first thing that jumps out at me? The turnover. That's a ton of change between the QB/RB positions (I took the tops from attempts for each, not necessarily the week one starter). I think part of it, though, has to do with Fisher's valuation of the positions. That he was able to get the Titans to the playoffs twice during the five-year window of Vince Young and Kerry Collins manning the QB position should tell you a lot; that he continued to rely on that duo atop his QB depth chart might tell you more.

Of course, four of those five years featured the run game in more abundance than the passing game. Here's a simple run/pass chart from Fisher's last ten seasons:

Fisher run-pass 1

Perhaps fittingly, those four years in which Fisher's teams ran the ball more often than they passed it didn't include a single losing season amid a 39-25 run. Meanwhile, the run/pass disparity continues to grow in favor of the pass across the NFL:

Fisher run-pass 2

So you could make two fair arguments here. One, that Fisher succeeds exclusively when relying on the running game to carry his offense; the six seasons in which his teams passed more than they run, they finished with losing records. The second takeaway though might be that as the league continues to move toward the pass more often, the contrarian strategy might offer an easier path to success with opponents built to play the pass across a 16-game regular season.

In any case, now that we've hit the empty void on the calendar that not even the NFL has figured out how to fill (go away, Deflategate), let's mull over some numbers. Next time, I'll look at the success of the running and passing games and not just the volume, but today's sheer quantities.

What's your main takeaway from the growing passing game in the NFL and Fisher's apparent desire to return to the run as his primary offensive weapon?

More From Turf Show Times