St. Louis Rams: The Broad View and 2015 Forecast

For fans, early thoughts about the 2015 St. Louis Rams have to be done at arms length. Some will reach as far as they can to prognosticate, while others - like me with my T-Rex arms - grab at the little titches I see for the team I've loved since I was 8 years old....

It's hard to be subjective at times, and not just when it comes to the NFL. Trying to think - thoroughly - with a 360° view isn't an easy thing, especially when the true knowledge pool of the average NFL fan is actually pretty shallow. To start with, I know my fact base - when it comes to the St. Louis Rams - is limited to being a fan. The real nature of player development is a closely held secret by NFL teams, and the St. Louis Rams are no different. We've all seen a given player have great moments, and a few bad ones too. Rushing to judgement on a player's true nature - and game day prowess - is, after all, what we do as fans, right? We get it right sometimes... But more often than not, getting it wrong chimes in, in a Dickensian/Yin-Yang/Rose Colored Glasses love triangle that has we as fans wailing, gnashing our teeth, and in my case: throwing a certain delicious, crunchy, orange snack food at my T.V....

230 words... Fair words I should think, and they represent a base commonality among fans of all 32 NFL teams. I guess it depends on your ego, state of your "Id", or size of your Ouija board?

Taking the long view - which is what I'm doing here - is an impossible task to get totally right. I've watched how Jeff Fisher and Les Snead have built this team since they arrived in St. Louis in 2012. They've gotten more right than wrong in my opinion. Draft day misses happen. But, as far as I can tell, draft day hits outnumber the miscues. The 2012 RGIII trade put enormous pressure on Snead to make every selection count. He's human, and so are the members of the Rams' scouting department. I mean, how could anyone know 2012 5th round draft pick Rokevious Watkins loved doughnuts and cheeseburgers more than football, or that a player named I. Pead wouldn't exactly work out?

In 2013, Fisher/Snead hit Radio Music City Hall with a wheeling and dealing buzz saw in hand. They flashed up and down the draft day board with abandon. In the trade up to #8 overall with Buffalo, Snead shipped #16, plus second, third and seventh round picks to the Bills for #8 - and a third round choice - to take Tavon Austin, the multi-talented star out of West Virginia University. Only time will tell if Fisher and Snead were blinded by the flashy, stat driven lights Austin posted during his college career. Yet, it was their next move - back into the first round - that landed them outside linebacker Alec Ogletree, and started a solid run on draft picks, even though they'd moved completely out of the second round. In the third, they snagged safety T.J. McDonald and wide receiver Stedman Bailey - who I think can be a star in the NFL one day. They took guard/center/project Barrett Jones in the fourth round, and corner back Brandon McGee and running back Zac Stacy in the 5th. A solid day that sussed itself out over time. Not a lot of time mind you, with the jury still out on Austin, Jones and McGee.

The following year in 2014, Fisher and Snead wielded the last of the RGIII bounty. Rounds one through four went off like a dream. They used the picks of Greg Robinson, Aaron Donald, Lamarcus Joyner, Tre Mason and Maurice Alexander to build onto the Rams foundation, then added a surprise in 2014 season 6th round choice E.J. Gaines to what could be one of the best drafts in St. Louis franchise history.

What I found most telling - believe it or not - is the choices made in six and seven. All the players taken were similar in one respect: they represented little in the way of risk, but if any of them turned out to be gems? It was the first draft by Fisher and Snead where they scattered picks on what had to be scouting department dark horses to make it in the NFL. It's worth noting because it signaled the start of the end game for Fisher and Snead in their rebuild of the Rams. They were adding layers - depth- and not necessarily game day starters. Most of these late picks have disappeared from the St. Louis roster, but it doesn't really matter. While it would've been great if one of them turned into a Tom Brady-like find, few fans noticed that the team they've been waiting for had been all but set. All that was left to do is develop them, and add a piece or two to round out the team they envision as being playoff worthy ...

For fans, the 2015 NFL Draft isn't going to be about what its been in the past. Fisher and Snead are getting ready for the draft of their life times. All the drafts up to this point were about gather pieces. Now, it's going to hinge on adding the special player or players who turn a team from also-ran to winner. Look for Fisher and Snead to draft players who have high football I.Q.s. They need their Richard Sherman as much as they need their Aaron Rodgers. They'll be shopping for something to turn the tide...

"OFFENSE!!", fans scream, and they'd be both right and wrong. If you look at the history of winning teams in the NFL, rarely do they excel on both sides of the ball. The offense for the Rams will continue to bend toward ball control, so field position will be key. Defense is where the Rams currently hold an edge, and I think Fisher and Snead will continue to add layers to it this coming April.

Would it be great if they built up the offense? Yes, but think about what it would take at this point. If they use draft stock to gamble on a rookie quarterback, fans can pretty much kiss off any hope of a post season in 2015. Fisher and Snead are in a tight spot here. If they throw in their #10 pick, and let's say a 2016 first and second rounder, at Tampa Bay or Tennessee for a chance at Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, they'll put themselves in the bottom of the ninth, two outs, and a count full with bases loaded down by three runs. They'll be swing for the fence against pitches thrown by 31 NFL teams with a rookie at the plate... Can you say career suicide?

Neither Fisher or Snead are idiots, and they've taken the broad, long view to this point in the rebuilding process. So look for them to do whatever it takes to get the defense solidly into the elite NFL air. Top 5 defenses are a good thing, and they make struggling offenses better due to field position, while also allowing the ability to open up the game plan. With a first time NFL offensive coordinator, an iffy quarterback situation, and suspect line, they know there isn't enough draft day stock to - overnight - turn this unit into anything more than a top 15-ish offense.

So what's on tap for the St. Louis Rams in 2015? If you study the first half of the Rams' 2014 season - and I know you have - you'd have noticed a slow, sluggish start which marked a team trying to sort out just who they are going to be. They flashed great moments, along with many cringe worthy times. A young team like the Rams took a serious confidence hit when they had to start the season without Sam Bradford. Doubt played into how the Rams started the year. Back up quarterbacks aren't confidence inspiring, though Shaun Hill and Austin Davis gave it their all. While Brian Schottenheimer took loads of heat for his offense, it has to be acknowledged the handicap he was under with marginal signal callers minding the store.

Rookie OC Frank Cignetti, Jr. is in an interesting position here.  If Jeff Fisher, and line coach Paul Boudreau can find a way to build up the Rams' offensive line, the other pieces in place could surprise fans. If there was a 100% valid knock to be found in Schottenheimer's scheme, it's that it was an overly mundane attack, that he complicated with transparent shifts, and used the wrong personnel to achieve his goals: "Wag, blowfish, Omaha, zig-shimmy on two... Ready, break!" He may as well have had Keenu Reeves at quarterback, because opposing defense have seen the movie, and knew what was coming...

Hinge points for the Rams this season are similar to those of the past six or seven years. Offensive line weaknesses will hobble the Rams playoff hopes. But don't start screaming to draft loads of "big-uglies" in the coming draft, simply because the clock has run out on the Rams' re-build. Fisher and Snead are going to need to hit free agency hard to find key position fills - like guard and center - if the slew of players in development aren't up to the task. I don't see them gambling the 2015 season on whether Barrett Jones' - or any of the other linemen waiting in the wings - paint is dry.

Building through the draft is a long task, but at some point it has to edge toward an end. They've tried to find the right guys, but few have shined to the point anyone feels totally comfortable with up to now labeling them as set in stone-stars.

So to make a run at anything significant in 2015, it's going to hinge just as much on team Vice President Kevin Demoff's balance sheet as it is player scouting. Rams' fans readily cry for this contract to be re-done, or that player to be released, to make salary cap room. The only offensive lineman I see the Rams letting go is center Scott Wells. He knows his career is edging toward its end, and cost/reward value simply isn't there for the Rams to retain his services. I think Fisher will fill the Wells void from within the roster.

At guard, it's a whole other ball game. Look for St. Louis to scrape all their pennies together to sign the best free agent road grading, pass protecting guard on the market. They'll draft a right tackle to replace Joe Barksdale if he asks for to much coin in a new contract, simply because he hasn't shown he's worth any more than mid-market money. It may cost the Rams' a high value draft pick to offset the experience curve of any rookie. Bank on La'el Collins as being the guy at the top of their guard wish list in the coming draft. A tackle in college, Collins projects well as a guard at the NFL level. The potential scary thing here is where Collins will probably be slated to play: Left guard, right next to second year tackle Greg Robinson. Rodger Saffold is better suited to play the right side, but his ability to stay health will be a load-stone for the Rams in 2015. They can't really afford to let former All-Pro tackle Jake Long slide away, and he knows it. So don't count on anything but a re-structure of his contract at the same value over time.

The real moment of truth for the Rams offensive line will be who plays center. If the position becomes a turn-style audition all season, the Rams are in deep trouble.

Next, the elephant in the room: Quarterback. Let me just say there is absolutely no fan - anywhere - who hopes more that Sam Bradford can stay healthy. But a team like the Rams can't keep getting kicked in the teeth when Bradford goes down, so a smart, talented, free agent quarterback is a must for Jeff Fisher to find and sign. I think a small bidding war is in the offing for Tennessee's Jake Locker. In an odd twist, Locker will get a pay raise for being let go by a Titans' team that's lost faith in him... Here's the thing though: I believe Locker could absolutely shine in St. Louis. Why? I can't really put my finger on it, but it keeps popping into my mind to go back to study film of Locker in college, and the players around him at the University of Washington. Plus, he'll be playing the lion's share of the 2015 season indoors - on fast-track surfaces - if he comes to St. Louis.

If I were Frank Cignetti, Jr., I'd create an offense devoid of complexity. It would be a "downhill" intense offense, with smash-mouth football as its watch word. It would be a "4 or 20" scheme: Pound the ground for 4 yards, or hit the air for 20... He needs to sell opposing teams that the underneath the safety zone is the last read for his quarterback. It would enable a mobile quarterback to pick up "plus yards" instead of being sacked or throwing the ball away.

So where are the Rams going to finish the 2015 season in the NFL standings? Based on the team presently in place, I can see fewer blown chances to win early in the season. I think they'll come out of the gate fast, winning 5 of the first 8 games. But that's only if the Rams have a steady presence at quarterback - whoever it winds up being. The Stretch run will tell fans just how deep Jeff Fisher and Les Snead have built this team. I think an 11-5 season is the high water mark. If the Rams fall below .500 again, I think Jeff Fisher's job is in serious jeopardy.

The NFC West will be wide open. Seattle is going to lose some players to free agency, but not many. It's the coaching losses on defense that could prove crucial. San Francisco is in a troubling position, with a first time head coach, and an all but complete gutting of staff. Player losses to free agency are going to hit this team hard, as is the draft misses the last couple years. Arizona has played well, but I think they've hit their ceiling...

Lot's to think about... Did I mention this was only Part 1 is a short series on the 2015 St. Louis Rams? Well drop in tomorrow for Part 2, as I take a closer look at the key factors facing Jeff Fisher, Les Snead, and the St. Louis Rams in 2015...