St. Louis Rams At Seattle Seahawks: Key Stats Analysis - Week 16

The Rams are now 7-8 after pulling off the 23-17 upset in Seattle against the Seahawks. Coming off three straight wins, the Rams are staying and practising out west for the season finale in San Francisco. They have a very good chance of finishing 8-8, the Rams' best record under Jeff Fisher.

Throughout the 2015 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these five particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2015 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

St. Louis Rams 2014 Statistical Records

2014 Key Stats Analysis

Points per Drive Differential: 6 games positive - Record 5-1. 10 games negative - Record 1-9.

Turnover Differential: 3 games positive - Record 3-0. 6 games negative - Record 0-6. 7 games even - Record 3-4. 4 games without a turnover - Record 4-0.

Big Play Differential: 6 games positive - Record 3-3. 10 games negative - Record 3-7.

Penalty Yards Differential: 4 games positive - Record 3-1. 12 games negative - Record 3-9.

Score At Half-Time - The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. The Rams haven't won a game in nearly three complete seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 6 wins in 2014. The team had a positive turnover differential in 3 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other 3 victories. Overall, the Rams finished 19'th in Turnover Differential (minus -2) last season.

The Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots finished 3rd in Turnover Differential (plus +12) while the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks finished 4th (plus +10). Over the 2014 NFL season, the average Turnover Differential among NFL teams was zero (0). The top 5 NFL teams averaged a Turnover Differential of 11.2, while the bottom 5 teams averaged a Turnover Differential of minus -12.2.

Turnovers played a key role in the Rams' win over the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams played a clean game and didn't give the ball away. In contrast, Seattle committed 3 turnovers. The costliest was a 1st quarter fumble by Will Tukuafu (forced by Mark Barron). The fumble was recovered by Akeem Ayers and returned for a 45 yard touchdown, giving the Rams a 10-0 lead. For the game, the Rams had a plus +3 Turnover Differential.

After Week 16, the Rams rank tied for 10th in the league in Turnover Differential (+4). The Rams are 4-2 in games with a positive Turnover Differential and 3-6 in games with an even or negative Turnover Differential.

	Team	Takeaways	Giveaways	Turnover Differential
1	Carolina Panthers	36	17	19
2	Kansas City Chiefs	28	13	15
3	Arizona Cardinals	33	21	12
4	Cincinnati Bengals	25	16	9
5	New York Jets	29	21	8
6	New England Patriots	21	14	7
7	New York Giants	26	20	6
8	Minnesota Vikings	20	15	5
9	Green Bay Packers	20	15	5
10	St. Louis Rams	25	21	4
11	Buffalo Bills	22	18	4
12	Seattle Seahawks	20	16	4
13	Houston Texans	21	19	2
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	26	24	2
15	New Orleans Saints	20	19	1
16	Washington Redskins	23	22	1
17	Denver Broncos	25	25	0
18	Oakland Raiders	23	23	0
19	Chicago Bears	17	18	-1
20	Miami Dolphins	16	19	-3
21	Philadelphia Eagles	25	29	-4
22	San Francisco 49ers	12	16	-4
23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21	25	-4
24	Indianapolis Colts	24	29	-5
25	Atlanta Falcons	22	28	-6
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	17	24	-7
27	Cleveland Browns	18	26	-8
28	San Diego Chargers	15	23	-8
29	Detroit Lions	15	24	-9
30	Baltimore Ravens	13	26	-13
31	Tennessee Titans	18	32	-14
32	Dallas Cowboys	11	29	-18

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2014, the Rams were the 3rd most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game (the same average as 2013). The Rams led the league in most penalty yards (1139), and were 30'th in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-257).

For a team that would like to keep the ball on the ground, penalties all too often force that team into a passing situation. Penalties kill drives, contribute to bad field position and can change momentum in a game. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

In the game against Seattle, the Rams committed 5 infractions totalling 60 yards. The Seahawks were flagged 10 times for a total of 83 yards. For the game, the Rams had a plus +23 Penalty Yards Differential.

Through 15 games, the Rams rank 18th in the NFL in Penalty Yards Differential (+30), a dramatic improvement over 2014's results. The Rams are 5-2 in games with a positive or even Penalty Yards Differential and 2-6 in games with a negative Penalty Yards Differential.

Rank	Team	GP	Pen Yds	Opp. Pen Yds	Pen Yds Diff	Pen Yds Diff/Game
1	Arizona Cardinals	15	715	1,132	417	26.06
2	New York Giants	15	769	1,066	297	18.56
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	15	823	1,102	279	17.44
4	Indianapolis Colts	15	860	1,108	248	15.50
5	Philadelphia Eagles	15	808	1,041	233	14.56
6	Green Bay Packers	15	852	1,070	218	13.63
7	Tennessee Titans	15	719	911	192	12.00
8	Cincinnati Bengals	14	800	985	185	11.56
9	Jacksonville Jaguars	15	827	934	107	6.69
10	Washington Redskins	15	807	911	104	6.50
11	New England Patriots	15	818	920	102	6.38
12	Houston Texans	15	855	938	83	5.19
13	Minnesota Vikings	15	760	821	61	3.81
14	Kansas City Chiefs	15	823	882	59	3.69
15	San Francisco 49ers	15	763	815	52	3.25
16	San Diego Chargers	15	897	941	44	2.75
17	Dallas Cowboys	15	835	878	43	2.69
18	St. Louis Rams	15	902	932	30	1.88
19	Chicago Bears	15	894	874	-20	-1.25
20	New York Jets	15	746	722	-24	-1.50
21	Miami Dolphins	15	997	964	-33	-2.06
22	Carolina Panthers	15	854	757	-97	-6.06
23	Detroit Lions	15	909	770	-139	-8.69
24	Oakland Raiders	15	1,043	888	-155	-9.69
25	Seattle Seahawks	15	937	752	-185	-11.56
26	New Orleans Saints	15	1,067	855	-212	-13.25
27	Cleveland Browns	15	1,036	788	-248	-15.50
28	Atlanta Falcons	15	937	683	-254	-15.88
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15	1,130	826	-304	-19.00
30	Denver Broncos	14	988	683	-305	-19.06
31	Buffalo Bills	15	1,204	865	-339	-21.19
32	Baltimore Ravens	15	1,115	676	-439	-27.44

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them. The higher the big play +/- the better, as this shows the team more often generates big plays than gives them up.

In the game against the Seahawks, the Rams had 3 Rushing Big Plays and 1 Passing Big Play (a 28 yard TD pass to Kenny Britt in the 2nd quarter. The Rams defense allowed Seattle only 3 Big Plays in total. The Rams had a plus +1 Big Play Differential for the game, a game dominated by two outstanding defenses.

After 15 games, the Rams rank tied for 15th in the league in Big Play Differential (+4), mostly thanks to the efforts of RB Todd Gurley, WR Tavon Austin and a stingy defense. The Rams are 7-2 in games with a positive Big Play Differential and 0-6 in games with a negative or even Big Play Differential. The Rams have run the fewest offensive plays in the NFL (849) and rank 8th in the league in Big Play percentage (8.72%).

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
1	Buffalo Bills	943	99	68	31	10.5%	70	29
2	Minnesota Vikings	924	86	59	27	9.31%	67	19
3	Seattle Seahawks	966	89	58	31	9.21%	51	38
4	Carolina Panthers	998	90	61	29	9.02%	56	34
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	956	86	47	39	9%	68	18
6	Green Bay Packers	981	87	51	36	8.87%	83	4
7	Kansas City Chiefs	890	78	47	31	8.76%	73	5
8	St. Louis Rams	849	74	52	22	8.72%	70	4
9	Arizona Cardinals	983	85	50	35	8.65%	70	15
10	Jacksonville Jaguars	958	81	44	37	8.46%	72	9
11	Cincinnati Bengals	877	71	40	31	8.1%	47	24
12	New York Jets	1,019	82	54	28	8.05%	71	11
13	San Francisco 49ers	891	71	40	31	7.97%	76	-5
14	New England Patriots	996	77	39	38	7.73%	68	9
15	Miami Dolphins	904	69	39	30	7.63%	91	-22
16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	946	71	48	23	7.51%	59	12
17	New Orleans Saints	1,031	77	41	36	7.47%	97	-20
18	Dallas Cowboys	901	66	48	18	7.33%	73	-7
19	Chicago Bears	973	70	41	29	7.19%	79	-9
20	Philadelphia Eagles	1,037	72	45	27	6.94%	78	-6
21	Oakland Raiders	953	66	33	33	6.93%	70	-4
22	New York Giants	972	67	34	33	6.89%	82	-15
23	Baltimore Ravens	1,005	69	37	32	6.87%	60	9
24	Atlanta Falcons	1,010	68	46	22	6.73%	72	-4
25	Indianapolis Colts	981	65	33	32	6.63%	90	-25
26	Cleveland Browns	966	63	38	25	6.52%	86	-23
27	Denver Broncos	928	58	36	22	6.25%	53	5
28	Detroit Lions	966	60	34	26	6.21%	80	-20
29	Tennessee Titans	918	56	31	25	6.1%	75	-19
30	Houston Texans	1,053	63	36	27	5.98%	71	-8
31	Washington Redskins	948	54	28	26	5.7%	87	-33
32	San Diego Chargers	1,033	54	25	29	5.23%	79	-25

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2014. 10 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential.

Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials. The higher the points per drive (offense) the better, and in theory the highest this statistic could be is 8, which would occur if a team scored a touchdown AND a two point conversion every time they have the ball. Conversely, the lower the points per drive allowed by the defense, the better.

In the game against Seattle, the Rams scored 16 points on 11 drives (1.46 PPD), a lower-than-average result for the offense. The Seahawks scored 17 points on 11 drives (1.55 PPD), an excellent performance by the Rams defense. For the game, the Rams had a minus -0.09 Points Per Drive Differential.

Heading into Week 17, the Rams rank 21st in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (-0.25). The main reason for the lower-than-average ranking is the performance of the offense, which is 31st in the NFL in Points Per Drive (1.43 PPD). In contrast, the defense is ranked 10th best in the NFL (1.68 PPD.). The Rams are 6-0 in games with a positive Points Per Drive Differential and 1-8 in games with a negative Points Per Drive Differential.

	Team	Points Per Drive	Points Per Drive Against	Point Differential
1	Arizona Cardinals	2.76	1.58	1.18
2	New England Patriots	2.53	1.66	0.87
3	Carolina Panthers	2.47	1.6	0.87
4	Cincinnati Bengals	2.38	1.55	0.83
5	Seattle Seahawks	2.37	1.66	0.71
6	Kansas City Chiefs	2.25	1.57	0.68
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.23	1.73	0.5
8	New York Jets	1.98	1.6	0.37
9	Minnesota Vikings	2.12	1.75	0.37
10	Denver Broncos	1.78	1.47	0.31
11	Green Bay Packers	1.97	1.75	0.22
12	Buffalo Bills	2.05	1.91	0.14
13	Washington Redskins	2.12	2.11	0.01
14	New York Giants	2.23	2.27	-0.05
15	Houston Texans	1.61	1.66	-0.05
16	Atlanta Falcons	1.94	1.99	-0.05
17	Detroit Lions	1.98	2.15	-0.17
18	Jacksonville Jaguars	2.06	2.3	-0.24
19	Oakland Raiders	1.86	2.1	-0.24
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	2.24	-0.24
21	St. Louis Rams	1.43	1.68	-0.25
22	Philadelphia Eagles	1.78	2.08	-0.3
23	Baltimore Ravens	1.79	2.15	-0.36
24	Chicago Bears	1.85	2.26	-0.41
25	San Diego Chargers	1.83	2.25	-0.42
26	New Orleans Saints	2.24	2.67	-0.43
27	Indianapolis Colts	1.66	2.12	-0.46
28	Miami Dolphins	1.66	2.12	-0.46
29	Dallas Cowboys	1.58	2.07	-0.5
30	Tennessee Titans	1.54	2.26	-0.71
31	Cleveland Browns	1.6	2.43	-0.83
32	San Francisco 49ers	1.3	2.18	-0.89

Score At Half-Time

There was a semblance of Jekyll (the first half) and Hyde (the second half) in most of the Rams' games last season. The teams' point differential in the first half of games: plus 58. In the second half of games: minus 88. The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams haven't won a game in the past two plus seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

In the big win against Seattle, the Rams went into the locker room at half-time winning 16-3. They held on to win 23-17. The Rams are 7-2 when leading or tied at the half, and 0-6 when behind starting the 3rd quarter. The Rams are 7-0 when they score at least 20 points in a game and 0-8 when they score less than 20.

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1 (Sea)	Negative	Positive	Positive	Positive	10  10	Won 34-31 OT
2 (Was)	Positive	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  17	Lost 24-10
3 (Pit)	Even	Positive	Negative	Negative	3  9	Lost 12-6
4 (Ari)	Positive	Positive	Positive	Negative	10  9	Won 24-22
5 (GB)	Negative	Positive	Negative	Positive	10  14	Lost 24-10
6 (Bye)	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye
7 (Cle)	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	10  3	Won 24-6
8 (SF)	Negative	Positive	Positive	Even	20  6	Won 27-6
9 (Min)	Positive	Even	Negative	Negative	15  10	Lost 21-18
10 (Chi)	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	10  24	Lost 37-13
11 (Bal)	Negative	Negative	Negative	Positive	7  3	Lost 16-13
12 (Cin)	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	7  17	Lost 31-7
13 (Ari)	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  10	Lost 27-3
14 (Det)	Negative	Positive	Positive	Negative	7  0	Won 21-14
15 (TB)	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	21  3	Won 31-23
16 (Sea)	Positive	Positive	Negative	Positive	16  3	Won 23-17

A lot of positive results in the game against Seattle, resulting in an upset victory.

Pro Football Focus Player Grades

Here are the top takeaways and highest-graded players from the Rams’ 23-17 win over the Seahawks.

St. Louis Rams

– The story of this game was very similar to the story from the Rams’ Week 1 win over the Seahawks. The Rams’ defensive line absolutely controlled the Seahawks’ offense. Aaron Donald (+9.9) was once again unstoppable. The Seahawks ran outside zone a good number of times, and only once did they manage to cleanly block the second-year defensive tackle. Williams Hayes (+6.4) also continued to show that his extremely high grade this year is no fluke. He finished the day with four sacks, two hits, and three hurries.

– One of the most surprising outcomes of the game was how well the Rams’ offensive line stood up to the Seahawks’ talented front. Case Keenum was pressured on only five of his 25 dropbacks, and at times, there were holes for Todd Gurley (-1.8) to run through (key words being "at times"). Greg Robinson (-4.6) was still a liability, but the two rookies on the right side of the line played some impressive football. Right tackle Rob Havenstein (-0.2) may have finished with a negative grade, but that came against one of the best edge rushers in football, Cliff Avril. Right guard Cody Wichmann (+5.2) had by far his best outing of the season, and made a living controlling Ahtyba Rubin in the run game.

– QB Case Keenum (-2.0) was basically instructed not to mess up an early lead, with only six attempts targeted 10+ yards downfield and an average depth of target of 7.0 yards—but the Rams were still lucky that one of his handful of ugly misses didn’t cost them the win. He threw multiple balls underneath that pinged off defenders’ hands that could have just as easily been picked. Most notable were near-interceptions to K.J. Wright and another to Kelcie McCray late in the fourth quarter.

Top performers:

DT Aaron Donald (+9.9)
DE William Hayes (+6.4)
RG Cody Wichmann (+5.2)
FS Rodney McLeod (+2.0)
WR Kenny Britt (+1.4)

Seattle Seahawks

– Another solid showing from QB Russell Wilson (+1.8), but some untimely sacks, botched snaps (seriously, what were those?), and non-existent running game killed the Seahawks’ offense. It also didn’t help that his best throw of the day, a dime on a corner route to Jermaine Kearse (+0.7), was called back due to penalty.

– The offensive line was once again thoroughly dominated, with every starter earning a steep negative grade. The interesting thing to me, though, was how many runs were blown up by fullback Will Tukuafu (-3.4) and Lemuel Jeanpierre (-2.3), who was used as a blocking tight end on five snaps. One play in particular, third quarter at 9:48, was perfectly blocked at the point of attack and could have been a touchdown, except Tukuafu botched his kick-out block on Akeem Ayers, and it ended up in a 2-yard gain.

– It’s easy to remember Richard Sherman (+1.6) getting burned badly for a touchdown by Kenny Britt, but the linebackers and secondary had a solid day in coverage. Four different players (Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Kelcie McCray, and DeShawn Shead) earned coverage grades of +1.0 or above, and no single player gave up more than 32 yards. The defense held up it’s end of the bargain for most of the day in this one.

Top performers:

DE Michael Bennett (+3.9)
K.J. Wright (+2.7)
WR Doug Baldwin (+2.2)
QB Russell Wilson (+1.8)
MLB Bobby Wagner (+1.8)