Chicago Bears At St. Louis Rams: Key Stats Analysis - Week 10

In a Week 10 game that was painful to watch at times, the Rams were totally dominated by the Chicago Bears, losing 37-13 at the Edward Jones Dome. Compiling and analysing the statistics for this stinker of a game turns out to be equally as painful.

Throughout the 2015 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these five particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2015 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

St. Louis Rams 2014 Statistical Records

2014 Key Stats Analysis

Points per Drive Differential: 6 games positive - Record 5-1. 10 games negative - Record 1-9.

Turnover Differential: 3 games positive - Record 3-0. 6 games negative - Record 0-6. 7 games even - Record 3-4. 4 games without a turnover - Record 4-0.

Big Play Differential: 6 games positive - Record 3-3. 10 games negative - Record 3-7.

Penalty Yards Differential: 4 games positive - Record 3-1. 12 games negative - Record 3-9.

Score At Half-Time - The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams haven't won a game in the past two plus seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 6 wins in 2014. The team had a positive turnover differential in 3 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other 3 victories. Overall, the Rams finished 19'th in Turnover Differential (minus -2) last season.

The Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots finished 3rd in Turnover Differential (plus +12) while the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks finished 4th (plus +10). Over the 2014 NFL season, the average Turnover Differential among NFL teams was zero (0). The top 5 NFL teams averaged a Turnover Differential of 11.2, while the bottom 5 teams averaged a Turnover Differential of minus -12.2.

In the game against Chicago, turnovers played an insignificant role in the outcome (despite each team turning over the ball twice). The two teams traded turnovers in the first quarter, each resulting in a field goal. Both teams turned the ball over once in the 4th quarter during garbage time. For the game, the Rams had an even Turnover Differential.

After 9 games, the Rams rank tied for 8th in the league in Turnover Differential (+4). The Rams are 2-2 in games with a positive Turnover Differential and 2-3 in games with an even or negative Turnover Differential.

	Team	Takeaways	Giveaways	Turnover Differential
1	New York Giants	23	10	13
2	Carolina Panthers	20	12	8
3	Kansas City Chiefs	16	8	8
4	Green Bay Packers	13	6	7
5	New England Patriots	13	7	6
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	18	13	5
7	Buffalo Bills	16	11	5
8	Philadelphia Eagles	20	16	4
9	St. Louis Rams	16	12	4
10	New York Jets	19	16	3
11	Cincinnati Bengals	13	10	3
12	Minnesota Vikings	11	9	2
13	Seattle Seahawks	12	11	1
14	Arizona Cardinals	18	17	1
15	Washington Redskins	14	14	0
16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	16	0
17	Atlanta Falcons	14	14	0
18	Chicago Bears	11	12	-1
19	San Francisco 49ers	8	9	-1
20	Oakland Raiders	14	15	-1
21	Houston Texans	11	12	-1
22	Denver Broncos	17	19	-2
23	Miami Dolphins	9	12	-3
24	Jacksonville Jaguars	11	15	-4
25	New Orleans Saints	13	17	-4
26	Cleveland Browns	15	20	-5
27	San Diego Chargers	9	14	-5
28	Indianapolis Colts	12	19	-7
29	Dallas Cowboys	6	14	-8
30	Tennessee Titans	11	19	-8
31	Baltimore Ravens	5	15	-10
32	Detroit Lions	11	21	-10

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2014, the Rams were the 3rd most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game (the same average as 2013). The Rams led the league in most penalty yards (1139), and were 30'th in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-257).

For a team that would like to keep the ball on the ground, penalties all too often force that team into a passing situation. Penalties kill drives, contribute to bad field position and can change momentum in a game. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

After showing much improvement earlier in the season, the Rams are once again committing too many penalties. Against Chicago, the Rams committed 8 infractions totalling 57 yards. The Bears were flagged 4 times for a total of 44 yards. For the game, the Rams had a minus -13 Penalty Yards Differential.

Through 9 games, the Rams rank tied for 20th in the NFL in Penalty Yards Differential (-24), a dramatic improvement over 2014's results. The Rams are 3-1 in games with a positive or even Penalty Yards Differential and 1-4 in games with a negative Penalty Yards Differential.

Rank	Team	GP	Pen Yds	Opp. Pen Yds	Pen Yds Diff	Pen Yds Diff/Game
1	Arizona Cardinals	9	449	717	268	16.75
2	Indianapolis Colts	9	504	758	254	15.88
3	Philadelphia Eagles	9	518	719	201	12.56
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	540	721	181	11.31
5	New York Giants	10	554	704	150	9.38
6	Tennessee Titans	9	505	625	120	7.50
7	Minnesota Vikings	9	422	542	120	7.50
8	Washington Redskins	9	448	560	112	7.00
9	Cincinnati Bengals	9	530	636	106	6.63
10	Miami Dolphins	9	602	676	74	4.63
11	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	526	599	73	4.56
12	San Francisco 49ers	9	387	458	71	4.44
13	San Diego Chargers	9	545	607	62	3.88
14	New England Patriots	9	592	629	37	2.31
15	Kansas City Chiefs	9	501	537	36	2.25
16	Houston Texans	9	560	577	17	1.06
17	New York Jets	9	471	482	11	0.69
18	Detroit Lions	9	509	513	4	0.25
19	Dallas Cowboys	9	497	487	-10	-0.63
20	St. Louis Rams	9	575	551	-24	-1.50
21	Green Bay Packers	9	537	513	-24	-1.50
22	Carolina Panthers	9	460	424	-36	-2.25
23	Oakland Raiders	9	611	543	-68	-4.25
24	Chicago Bears	9	584	513	-71	-4.44
25	Baltimore Ravens	9	614	473	-141	-8.81
26	Cleveland Browns	10	743	580	-163	-10.19
27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	717	543	-174	-10.88
28	New Orleans Saints	10	718	501	-217	-13.56
29	Denver Broncos	9	652	431	-221	-13.81
30	Seattle Seahawks	9	590	361	-229	-14.31
31	Atlanta Falcons	9	615	373	-242	-15.13
32	Buffalo Bills	9	808	531	-277	-17.31

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
5	Carolina Panthers	593	57	37	20	9.61%	33	24
6	Seattle Seahawks	562	54	36	18	9.61%	30	24
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	609	62	35	27	10.18%	43	19
2	Buffalo Bills	557	56	40	16	10.05%	37	19
8	Cincinnati Bengals	574	50	27	23	8.71%	34	16
4	Minnesota Vikings	559	55	39	16	9.84%	40	15
3	St. Louis Rams	515	51	36	15	9.9%	40	11
12	New England Patriots	605	49	26	23	8.1%	40	9
14	Philadelphia Eagles	637	50	31	19	7.85%	42	8
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	563	41	27	14	7.28%	33	8
9	Arizona Cardinals	581	50	29	21	8.61%	44	6
21	Atlanta Falcons	623	45	32	13	7.22%	39	6
16	Jacksonville Jaguars	597	46	26	20	7.71%	41	5
10	Kansas City Chiefs	569	48	28	20	8.44%	45	3
24	Baltimore Ravens	605	42	23	19	6.94%	39	3
7	Green Bay Packers	561	51	28	23	9.09%	50	1
15	New York Jets	600	47	31	16	7.83%	47	0
11	San Francisco 49ers	541	44	26	18	8.13%	45	-1
20	Chicago Bears	592	43	26	17	7.26%	47	-4
22	Dallas Cowboys	560	40	29	11	7.14%	44	-4
27	Denver Broncos	569	35	20	15	6.15%	41	-6
30	Houston Texans	654	37	19	18	5.66%	47	-10
23	Indianapolis Colts	615	43	24	19	6.99%	54	-11
17	Oakland Raiders	566	42	22	20	7.42%	54	-12
29	Tennessee Titans	547	32	22	10	5.85%	44	-12
13	Miami Dolphins	558	45	26	19	8.06%	58	-13
18	New Orleans Saints	696	51	27	24	7.33%	66	-15
31	San Diego Chargers	628	34	14	20	5.41%	49	-15
26	New York Giants	651	41	22	19	6.3%	57	-16
32	Detroit Lions	575	31	13	18	5.39%	47	-16
28	Washington Redskins	578	34	21	13	5.88%	54	-20
25	Cleveland Browns	644	41	20	21	6.37%	63	-22

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2014. 10 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential.

Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials. The higher the points per drive the better, and in theory the highest this statistic could be is 8, which would occur if a team scored a touchdown AND a two point conversion every time they have the ball.

In the game against Chicago, the Rams scored 13 points on 14 drives (0.93 PPD), a poor result for the offense. The Vikings scored 37 points on 13 drives (2.85 PPD), a surprisingly poor performance by the Rams defense. For the game, the Rams had a minus -1.92 Points Per Drive Differential.

Heading into Week 11, the Rams rank tied for 17th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (-0.15). The main reason for the middle-of-the-road ranking is the performance of the offense, which is 31st in the NFL in Points Per Drive (1.48 PPD). In contrast, the defense is ranked 6th best in the NFL (1.63 PPD.) The Rams are 4-0 in games with a positive Points Per Drive Differential and 0-5 in games with a negative Points Per Drive Differential.

The top 10 teams in Points Per Drive Differential sport a combined 70-21 record through the first 10 weeks of the regular season.

	Team	Points Per Drive	Points Per Drive Against	Point Differential
1	New England Patriots	2.91	1.67	1.24
2	Arizona Cardinals	2.8	1.73	1.07
3	Cincinnati Bengals	2.3	1.57	0.74
4	Carolina Panthers	2.2	1.51	0.69
5	Minnesota Vikings	1.96	1.56	0.4
6	Atlanta Falcons	2.27	1.88	0.39
7	Denver Broncos	1.92	1.54	0.37
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.02	1.68	0.34
9	Buffalo Bills	2.18	1.9	0.28
10	Green Bay Packers	2.11	1.85	0.26
11	Seattle Seahawks	1.99	1.74	0.25
12	New York Giants	2.48	2.24	0.24
13	Kansas City Chiefs	2.06	1.82	0.23
14	New York Jets	1.9	1.67	0.23
15	Philadelphia Eagles	1.83	1.6	0.23
16	Washington Redskins	2.14	2.15	-0.02
17	Baltimore Ravens	2.06	2.21	-0.15
18	St. Louis Rams	1.48	1.63	-0.15
19	Oakland Raiders	2.12	2.32	-0.2
20	Indianapolis Colts	1.8	2.01	-0.21
21	Miami Dolphins	1.8	2.06	-0.26
22	Houston Texans	1.6	1.87	-0.27
23	San Diego Chargers	2.19	2.52	-0.33
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.87	2.3	-0.43
25	Dallas Cowboys	1.75	2.18	-0.44
26	Tennessee Titans	1.61	2.06	-0.45
27	Chicago Bears	1.95	2.44	-0.49
28	New Orleans Saints	2.13	2.69	-0.57
29	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.75	2.32	-0.57
30	Detroit Lions	1.62	2.33	-0.71
31	Cleveland Browns	1.6	2.33	-0.72
32	San Francisco 49ers	1.26	2.25	-0.99

Score At Half-Time

There was a semblance of Jekyll (the first half) and Hyde (the second half) in most of the Rams' games last season. The teams' point differential in the first half of games: plus 58. In the second half of games: minus 88. The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams haven't won a game in the past two and a half plus seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

In the terribly played game against Chicago, the Rams went into the locker room at half-time losing 24-10. The Rams held true to form in the second half, ultimately losing 37-13. In an interesting reversal of form, the Rams (in contrast to 2014) are playing better football overall in the 2nd half of games when compared to the first half of games. In nine games this season, the Rams have only been outscored by their opponents 81-78 in the second half while being outscored 102-88 in the first half. The Rams are 4-1 when leading or tied at the half, and 0-4 when behind starting the 3rd quarter.

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1	Negative	Positive	Positive	Positive	10  10	Won 34-31 OT
2	Positive	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  17	Lost 24-10
3	Even	Positive	Negative	Negative	3  9	Lost 12-6
4	Positive	Positive	Positive	Negative	10  9	Won 24-22
5	Negative	Positive	Negative	Positive	10  14	Lost 24-10
6	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye
7	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	10  3	Won 24-6
8	Negative	Positive	Positive	Even	20  6	Won 27-6
9	Positive	Even	Negative	Negative	15  10	Lost 21-18
10	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	10  24	Lost 37-13

Bad games produce bad statistics, and this game was no exception. A poor showing in all facets of the game. The Rams need to put the Bears game behind them and come out swinging against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Rams are still having considerable difficulty converting on third down. I believe Bernie Miklasz nailed the answer right on the money:

"Coordinator Frank Cignetti and the Rams’ offensive have to do a more creative and effective job of getting more production on first and second down to avoid putting the quarterbacks at a significant disadvantage in down and distance. Foles, for example, has the most third-down passing attempts (24) in the NFL this season when the team needs 11+ yards for a first down. It’s imperative for the Rams have to get the QBs in position for higher-percentage conversions. The Rams can’t keep lining up the quarterback in so many third-and-long, third-and-impossible scenarios."

Pro Football Focus Player Grades

Here are the top takeaways and highest-graded players from the Bears’ 37-13 win over the Rams:

Chicago Bears

– Jay Cutler (-1.7) had his lowest grade of the season, but was very effective on passes under 10 yards, going 19-for-20 for 258 yards and all three TDs. However, most of these were passes short of the sticks that the receivers did all of the work. Zach Miller going 87 yards for a touchdown was more about the Rams’ defense than anything Cutler did; he threw a short speed out, and Miller made one cut and the Rams defense overran the pursuit angle. Cutler was unable to complete a pass over 10 yards, as 209 yards came after the catch.

– The Bears’ secondary performed at a high level versus the Rams; CB Kyle Fuller (+3.3) came away with the highest grade on the team, as he allowed just one catch on eight targets for 1 yard and had one pass deflection. On the opposite side of him was Tracy Porter (+2.5); while Porter was only targeted three times, he too only allowed one catch for a grand total of 6 yards and had two pass deflections. Both starting safeties, Antrel Rolle (+2.3) and Adrian Amos (+0.5) also held up in coverage, only giving up three catches on six targets for 12 yards combined. The longest play the starting secondary gave up was two 6 yard pass plays.

– With Matt Forte out, neither Jeremy Langford (+1.8) nor Ka’Deem Carey (RB -0.7) did much as a runner versus the Rams; part of the problem was that the Rams’ defensive line gave the Bears’ running backs very little room to work with. Langford was able to escape on a couple of runs, however, these were few and far between. As a receiver out of the backfield, Langford was able to take a screen pass 83 yards for a touchdown.

Top Performers:

CB Kyle Fuller (+3.3)
TE Zach Miller (+3.0)
LB Willie Young (+2.8)
CB Tracy Porter (+2.7)
S Antrel Rolle (+2.3)

St. Louis Rams

– Nick Foles (-5.0) struggled against the Bears’ defense, only completing 47 percent of his passes; all of his completions were under 10 yards (there wasn’t a single completed pass over 10 yards in this whole game). When Foles tried to go over 10 yards, he was 0-for-14. With the Rams struggling to move the ball in the run game, St. Louis tried to open the Bears’ defense downfield, but neither Foles nor the receivers had any luck in getting a chunk of yardage on one play.

– Second-year pro Aaron Donald (+11.7) had another one of his monster games. Donald had the second-highest pass rushing productivity of the week for defensive tackles at 18.4, thanks to four total pressures on 19 pass rushing snaps. While Donald only had three run stops on 30 snaps, he caused the Bears’ interior offensive line issues all game long with both his ability to penetrate into the backfield as well as using his strength to stand up the lineman at the point of attack, taking away the holes for the Bears’ runners that way.

– First round pick Todd Gurley (-0.7) struggled to find any room as a runner, as the Bears’ defense committed to stopping Gurley first and forcing the Rams into long passing situations. They did so with great effect, allowing Gurley just 45 yards on 12 carries. The longest run allowed by Gurley all night was just 9 yards. The past two weeks for Gurley have been a realization that the NFL is not the SEC, and those first four starts where he gained 100+ yards each week will not continue with the NFL defenses focusing more and more on the run game.

Top Performers:

DL Aaron Donald (+11.7)
OL Garrett Reynolds (+3.7)
DL Nick Fairley (+3.4)
OL Rob Havenstein (+2.4)
CB Janoris Jenkins (+2.1)