St. Louis Rams At Minnesota Vikings: Key Stats Analysis - Week 9

The Rams and Vikings appeared to be two evenly matched teams heading into their Week 9 contest in Minnesota. They ended the first sixty minutes of the game 18-18. The Rams lost 21-18 in overtime, on a Blair Walsh field goal with 9:24 left on the clock. This was a game the Rams could have won. Missed opportunities, penalties and continuing struggles on offense were all significant factors in the loss.

Throughout the 2015 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these five particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2015 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

St. Louis Rams 2014 Statistical Records

2014 Key Stats Analysis

Points per Drive Differential: 6 games positive - Record 5-1. 10 games negative - Record 1-9.

Turnover Differential: 3 games positive - Record 3-0. 6 games negative - Record 0-6. 7 games even - Record 3-4. 4 games without a turnover - Record 4-0.

Big Play Differential: 6 games positive - Record 3-3. 10 games negative - Record 3-7.

Penalty Yards Differential: 4 games positive - Record 3-1. 12 games negative - Record 3-9.

Score At Half-Time - The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams haven't won a game in the past two plus seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 6 wins in 2014. The team had a positive turnover differential in 3 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other 3 victories. Overall, the Rams finished 19'th in Turnover Differential (minus -2) last season.

The Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots finished 3rd in Turnover Differential (plus +12) while the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks finished 4th (plus +10). Over the 2014 NFL season, the average Turnover Differential among NFL teams was zero (0). The top 5 NFL teams averaged a Turnover Differential of 11.2, while the bottom 5 teams averaged a Turnover Differential of minus -12.2.

In the game against Minnesota, turnovers played virtually no role in the outcome. The only turnover was an interception by Rams CB Trumaine Johnson. It led to no points for the Rams. For the game, the Rams had a plus (+1) Turnover Differential.

After 8 games, the Rams rank tied for 7th in the league in Turnover Differential (+4). The Rams are 2-2 in games with a positive Turnover Differential and 2-2 in games with an even or negative Turnover Differential.

11 teams have winning records as of November 9. 9 of the 11 teams are in the top dozen in the NFL in Turnover Differential.

	Team	Takeaways	Giveaways	Turnover Differential
1	New York Giants	21	9	12
2	New York Jets	19	12	7
3	New England Patriots	12	5	7
4	Green Bay Packers	12	6	6
5	Carolina Panthers	18	12	6
6	Philadelphia Eagles	20	15	5
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	15	11	4
8	Cincinnati Bengals	12	8	4
9	St. Louis Rams	14	10	4
10	Arizona Cardinals	17	14	3
11	Kansas City Chiefs	11	8	3
12	Denver Broncos	17	14	3
13	Buffalo Bills	12	11	1
14	Oakland Raiders	14	13	1
15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15	14	1
16	Minnesota Vikings	9	9	0
17	Chicago Bears	8	8	0
18	Atlanta Falcons	14	14	0
19	Seattle Seahawks	9	10	-1
20	San Francisco 49ers	8	9	-1
21	Washington Redskins	12	14	-2
22	New Orleans Saints	13	15	-2
23	Houston Texans	9	11	-2
24	Miami Dolphins	8	12	-4
25	Cleveland Browns	13	17	-4
26	San Diego Chargers	7	13	-6
27	Tennessee Titans	11	17	-6
28	Baltimore Ravens	4	11	-7
29	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	14	-7
30	Indianapolis Colts	12	19	-7
31	Detroit Lions	11	20	-9
32	Dallas Cowboys	4	13	-9

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2014, the Rams were the 3rd most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game (the same average as 2013). The Rams led the league in most penalty yards (1139), and were 30'th in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-257).

For a team that would like to keep the ball on the ground, penalties all too often force that team into a passing situation. Penalties kill drives, contribute to bad field position and can change momentum in a game. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

The Rams committed far too many penalties in the game against the Vikings (12 penalties totalling 87 yards). The Vikings only committed 6 infractions totalling 67 yards. For the game, the Rams had a minus -20 Penalty Yards Differential.

As Jeff Fisher noted in Monday's press conference, defensive offsides have been a problem as of late:

"We’ve had 12 defensive offsides in three games and that is too many. It doesn’t win games for you, so we have to get that fixed."

Through 8 games, the Rams rank 19th in the NFL in Penalty Yards Differential (-11), a dramatic improvement over 2014's results. The Rams are 3-1 in games with a positive or even Penalty Yards Differential and 1-3 in games with a negative Penalty Yards Differential.

Rank	Team	GP	Pen Yds	Opp. Pen Yds	Pen Yds Diff	Pen Yds Diff/Game
1	Indianapolis Colts	9	504	758	254	15.88
2	Arizona Cardinals	8	378	586	208	13.00
3	Philadelphia Eagles	8	464	635	171	10.69
4	Cincinnati Bengals	8	460	582	122	7.63
5	New York Giants	9	505	611	106	6.63
6	Tennessee Titans	8	475	580	105	6.56
7	Miami Dolphins	8	518	622	104	6.50
8	Washington Redskins	8	422	510	88	5.50
9	Kansas City Chiefs	8	399	482	83	5.19
10	New England Patriots	8	499	580	81	5.06
11	San Francisco 49ers	9	387	458	71	4.44
12	San Diego Chargers	8	491	552	61	3.81
13	Minnesota Vikings	8	407	460	53	3.31
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	490	533	43	2.69
15	Houston Texans	8	506	507	1	0.06
16	Oakland Raiders	8	529	528	-1	-0.06
17	Green Bay Packers	8	482	478	-4	-0.25
18	Dallas Cowboys	8	432	425	-7	-0.44
19	St. Louis Rams	8	518	507	-11	-0.69
20	New York Jets	8	451	438	-13	-0.81
21	Detroit Lions	8	474	458	-16	-1.00
22	Jacksonville Jaguars	8	496	478	-18	-1.13
23	Carolina Panthers	8	415	394	-21	-1.31
24	Cleveland Browns	9	555	530	-25	-1.56
25	Baltimore Ravens	8	493	443	-50	-3.13
26	Chicago Bears	7	485	402	-83	-5.19
27	Seattle Seahawks	8	459	290	-169	-10.56
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	655	478	-177	-11.06
29	New Orleans Saints	9	668	475	-193	-12.06
30	Atlanta Falcons	9	615	373	-242	-15.13
31	Buffalo Bills	8	764	511	-253	-15.81
32	Denver Broncos	8	597	329	-268	-16.75

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them. The higher the big play +/- the better, as this shows the team more often generates big plays than gives them up.

In the game against the Vikings, the Rams had 7 Rushing Big Plays (Tavon Austin with 4 and Todd Gurley with 3) and 1 Passing Big Play (55 yards to Kenny Britt in the first quarter, which led to a Rams TD). The Rams defense allowed Minnesota 8 Big Plays in total. The Rams had an even Big Play Differential for the game.

Are the Rams too reliant on big plays? Jeff Fisher doesn't seem to think so:

"No, I don’t think we’ve had enough big plays. We need more big plays. We need big runs. We need chunks. We need to change field position."

Big/Explosive plays aren't the issue though. The Rams - led by Tavon Austin and Todd Gurley - have the 2nd-highest big play percentage in the NFL. The offense can produce huge chunks of yards with the best of teams. It's getting 4-5 yards at a time on a consistent basis that they're struggling with. This leads to a league-low in total plays run and results in too many 3rd and long situations (and the chains getting rust on them).

After 8 games, the Rams rank 7th in the league in Big Play Differential (+12), thanks to the efforts of RB Todd Gurley, WR Tavon Austin and a stingy defense. The Rams are 4-2 in games with a positive Big Play Differential and 0-2 in games with a negative or even Big Play Differential.

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
3	Carolina Panthers	528	53	34	19	10.04%	31	22
8	Cincinnati Bengals	512	47	25	22	9.18%	30	17
9	Seattle Seahawks	510	44	31	13	8.63%	27	17
5	Buffalo Bills	493	47	33	14	9.53%	31	16
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	550	54	33	21	9.82%	41	13
6	Arizona Cardinals	497	47	28	19	9.46%	34	13
2	St. Louis Rams	456	46	34	12	10.09%	34	12
7	Minnesota Vikings	500	46	31	15	9.2%	35	11
14	New England Patriots	537	43	23	20	8.01%	34	9
13	Philadelphia Eagles	549	44	28	16	8.01%	37	7
15	Jacksonville Jaguars	527	42	22	20	7.97%	35	7
21	Atlanta Falcons	623	45	32	13	7.22%	39	6
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	496	38	26	12	7.66%	33	5
18	New York Jets	541	41	27	14	7.58%	38	3
1	Green Bay Packers	479	50	28	22	10.44%	48	2
25	Baltimore Ravens	538	36	20	16	6.69%	35	1
10	Kansas City Chiefs	504	43	25	18	8.53%	43	0
12	San Francisco 49ers	542	44	26	18	8.12%	45	-1
16	Dallas Cowboys	507	40	29	11	7.89%	41	-1
26	Denver Broncos	504	33	18	15	6.55%	36	-3
23	Chicago Bears	459	32	20	12	6.97%	39	-7
19	Oakland Raiders	502	37	19	18	7.37%	45	-8
20	New Orleans Saints	641	47	24	23	7.33%	56	-9
28	Tennessee Titans	501	30	20	10	5.99%	40	-10
22	Indianapolis Colts	615	43	24	19	6.99%	54	-11
30	Houston Texans	593	33	16	17	5.56%	44	-11
11	Miami Dolphins	492	40	23	17	8.13%	52	-12
31	San Diego Chargers	565	31	12	19	5.49%	44	-13
24	Cleveland Browns	579	39	19	20	6.74%	55	-16
27	New York Giants	581	35	21	14	6.02%	51	-16
29	Detroit Lions	511	29	12	17	5.68%	46	-17
32	Washington Redskins	519	24	15	9	4.62%	50	-26

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2014. 10 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential.

Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials. The higher the points per drive the better, and in theory the highest this statistic could be is 8, which would occur if a team scored a touchdown AND a two point conversion every time they have the ball.

In the game against Minnesota, the Rams scored 18 points on 14 drives (1.28 PPD), a poor result for the offense. The Vikings scored 21 points on 14 drives (1.50 PPD), a fine performance by the Rams defense. For the game, the Rams had a minus -0.22 Points Per Drive Differential.

Heading into Week 10, the Rams rank 16th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (+0.09). The main reason for the middle-of-the-road ranking is the performance of the offense, which is 31st in the NFL in Points Per Drive (1.56 PPD). The defense is ranked 2nd best in the NFL (1.47 PPD.) The Rams are 4-0 in games with a positive Points Per Drive Differential and 0-4 in games with a negative Points Per Drive Differential.

The top 10 teams in Points Per Drive Differential sport a combined 62-19 record through the first 9 weeks of the regular season.

	Team	Points Per Drive	Points Per Drive Against	Point Differential
1	New England Patriots	3	1.59	1.41
2	Arizona Cardinals	2.8	1.61	1.19
3	Cincinnati Bengals	2.52	1.67	0.85
4	Carolina Panthers	2.15	1.56	0.59
5	Denver Broncos	2.04	1.46	0.58
6	Atlanta Falcons	2.27	1.88	0.39
7	Green Bay Packers	2.26	1.9	0.36
8	Seattle Seahawks	1.9	1.57	0.32
9	New York Jets	1.98	1.69	0.29
10	Buffalo Bills	2.27	1.98	0.29
11	Philadelphia Eagles	1.89	1.62	0.27
12	New York Giants	2.49	2.24	0.26
13	Minnesota Vikings	1.85	1.59	0.26
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.94	1.77	0.18
15	Kansas City Chiefs	2.05	1.94	0.12
16	St. Louis Rams	1.56	1.47	0.09
17	Oakland Raiders	2.22	2.24	-0.03
18	Baltimore Ravens	2.13	2.3	-0.17
19	Indianapolis Colts	1.8	2.01	-0.21
20	New Orleans Saints	2.21	2.5	-0.29
21	Miami Dolphins	1.86	2.17	-0.31
22	Tennessee Titans	1.67	1.99	-0.32
23	Houston Texans	1.69	2.01	-0.32
24	San Diego Chargers	2.2	2.55	-0.36
25	Washington Redskins	1.84	2.27	-0.43
26	Dallas Cowboys	1.88	2.34	-0.46
27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.99	2.48	-0.49
28	Cleveland Browns	1.69	2.29	-0.6
29	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.77	2.42	-0.65
30	Detroit Lions	1.64	2.5	-0.86
31	San Francisco 49ers	1.26	2.25	-0.99
32	Chicago Bears	1.77	2.77	-1

Score At Half-Time

There was a semblance of Jekyll (the first half) and Hyde (the second half) in most of the Rams' games last season. The teams' point differential in the first half of games: plus 58. In the second half of games: minus 88. The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams haven't won a game in the past two plus seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

In the tightly played game against Minnesota, the Rams went into the locker room at half-time with a 15-10 lead. The Rams couldn't hold on to the lead in the second half and ended up losing in overtime. In an interesting reversal of form, the Rams (in contrast to 2014) are playing better football overall in the 2nd half of games when compared to the first half of games. In eight games this season, the Rams have outscored their opponents 75-68 in the second half and scored the same amount of points as their opponents (78-78) in the first half. The Rams are 4-1 when leading or tied at the half, and 0-3 when behind starting the 3rd quarter.

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1	Negative	Positive	Positive	Positive	10  10	Won 34-31 OT
2	Positive	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  17	Lost 24-10
3	Even	Positive	Negative	Negative	3  9	Lost 12-6
4	Positive	Positive	Positive	Negative	10  9	Won 24-22
5	Negative	Positive	Negative	Positive	10  14	Lost 24-10
6	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye	Bye
7	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	10  3	Won 24-6
8	Negative	Positive	Positive	Even	20  6	Won 27-6
9	Positive	Even	Negative	Negative	15  10	Lost 21-18

Aside from the weekly analysis of 5 chosen statistics, a few more statistics bear mentioning. 3rd down conversions continue to be a problem for the Rams. They converted only 2 of 16 3rd downs in the game against the Vikings and are last in the league in 3rd down efficiency (23.8%). The Rams are leaving themselves too many third-and-longs. Of the 16 third downs in the Minnesota game, 11 of them were 7 yards or more. Tough to convert those with any kind of consistency. Part of the problem is the running game, despite the presence of Todd Gurley (and Tavon Austin). The Rams ran the ball 36 times for 160 yards against the Vikings. But 19 of those rushing attempts were for 2 yards or less. Much of the issue lies with the OL and blocking. Dropped passes continue to plague the offense. The Rams are 3rd-worst in the league in percentage of passes dropped (6.0%). The Rams are still having trouble getting started in the first quarter. Through 8 games, the Rams have been outscored 50-25 in the first quarter. The offense has many kinks to work out.

Rams remain last in 3rd-down conversion rate (23.8%); they have converted only 24 off 101 third downs into first downs this season.

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) November 9, 2015

Pro Football Focus Player Grades

Here are the top takeaways and highest-graded players from the Vikings’ 21-18 win over the Rams:

St. Louis Rams

– If you’re going to rely solely on running back Todd Gurley (+1.5), the Rams offensive line is going to need to give him more help than they did on Sunday. So many runs were DOA because of a completely blown block up front. The main culprits were left tackle Greg Robinson (-4.0) and left guard Andrew Donnal (-7.9). Gurley averaged only 1.5 yards prior to contact.

– Mark Barron (-2.6) had looked like a natural in his transition to linebacker up until this week’s game. Against Adrian Peterson, though, he took his lumps. The former safety was asked to take on a few more blocks than usual and the results were predictable. The lowlight of his game came on the Vikings last third down conversion in overtime. Barron was lined up in the weakside A-gap and as Peterson took the handoff right on a dive play, Barron took the bait and abandoned his gap to attack the ball carrier in the short yardage situation. Peterson immediately cut back into the now open gap and the conversion put the Vikings into field goal range.

– One of the stories of the game for the Rams was their lack of discipline. This manifested most visibly in their penalty problem. On defense alone, seven different players were flagged. The Vikings were gifted six first downs via penalty and countless other second chances due to those mental errors. It’s not just a one-time thing, either. The Rams -14.9 overall penalty grade is the second lowest in the NFL.

Top performers:

DT Aaron Donald (+5.0)
LB Akeem Ayers (+4.0)
RG Jamon Brown (+2.0)
FS Rodney McLeod (+2.0)
WR Kenny Britt & CB Trumaine Johnson (+1.9)

Minnesota Vikings

– Linval Joseph (+10.9) put on possibly the most dominant performance against the run that I’ve ever seen. He manhandled blocks in ways you almost never see. Down after down. The defensive tackle collected six stops against the run, and blew up many more setting up easy plays for his teammates, en route to a crazy +8.6 run defense grade for the game.

– This was not a pretty game from Teddy Bridgewater (-1.4 passing). While he made some nice plays with his legs early on, including a touchdown run, he struggled mightily trying to make plays with his arm down the field. Bridgewater finished just 3 of 8 on targets 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage. That’s rarely going to get it done. Shaun Hill (-1.2) wasn’t much better with his longest completion on six attempts traveling just three yards down the field.

– It’s time to give some love to the Vikings guard, Michael Harris (+4.4). His performance after switching from tackle this year has flown under the radar, but no guard has graded out higher over the past two weeks. On Sunday, he was the only lineman not consistently overmatched by the Rams uber-talented interior. The right guard was matched up with Michael Brockers much of the day and held him to his lowest run defense grade of the season.

Top performers:

DT Linval Joseph (+10.9)
RG Michael Harris (+4.4)
LB Anthony Barr (+4.2)
DE Everson Griffen (+3.0)
CB Xavier Rhodes (+1.2)

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A bit off-topic, but a good example of why many individual statistical measures leave a lot to be desired (and why I prefer to keep track of/work with TEAM stats only):

From the Week 6 game between San Diego and Green Bay, here are the passing statistics and ratings for Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers:

Rivers: 43/65 - 503 yards passing - 66.2% completion% - 7.7 YPA - 2 TD's - 0 INT's = Passer Rating of 99.7.

Rodgers: 16/29 - 255 yards passing - 55.2% completion% - 8.8 YPA - 2 TD's - 0 INT's = Passer Rating of 107.7.

Who had the better game? According to the "rating", Rodgers had the better game. The facts and reality suggest otherwise.

NFL individual statistics are comprised of many moving parts. It's difficult (well-nigh impossible) to accurately gauge an individual performance using statistical measures exclusively.