St. Louis Rams At Green Bay Packers: Key Stats Analysis - Week 5

The Rams' offense has plagued them all season. Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers was no exception. I've referred to the Rams as a "Jekyll and Hyde" team, one that played great games against teams like Seattle and Arizona, while playing not-so-great games against Pittsburgh and Washington. The term "Jekyll and Hyde" can now be applied to the striking difference between the defense (playoff caliber) and the offense (currently last in the league).

Throughout the 2015 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these five particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2015 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

St. Louis Rams 2014 Statistical Records

2014 Key Stats Analysis

Points per Drive Differential: 6 games positive - Record 5-1. 10 games negative - Record 1-9.

Turnover Differential: 3 games positive - Record 3-0. 6 games negative - Record 0-6. 7 games even - Record 3-4. 4 games without a turnover - Record 4-0.

Big Play Differential: 6 games positive - Record 3-3. 10 games negative - Record 3-7.

Penalty Yards Differential: 4 games positive - Record 3-1. 12 games negative - Record 3-9.

Score At Half-Time - The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams haven't won a game in the past two seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 6 wins in 2014. The team had a positive turnover differential in 3 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other 3 victories. Overall, the Rams finished 19'th in Turnover Differential (minus -2) last season.

The Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots finished 3rd in Turnover Differential (plus +12) while the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks finished 4th (plus +10). Over the 2014 NFL season, the average Turnover Differential among NFL teams was zero (0). The top 5 NFL teams averaged a Turnover Differential of 11.2, while the bottom 5 teams averaged a Turnover Differential of -12.2.

Turnovers played the key role in the Rams' loss to the Packers on Sunday. Nick Foles threw 4 interceptions in the game, while Aaron Rodgers had a pair of interceptions and lost one fumble. For the game, the Rams were minus -1 in Turnover Differential. The Rams' turnovers hurt them on the scoreboard. Foles' first interception (at 1:02 of the 1st quarter) was returned for a touchdown and a 14-0 Green Bay lead. The Rams never recovered from the 14-point deficit.

After 5 games, the Rams rank 14th in the league in Turnover Differential (+1).

	Team	Takeaways	Giveaways	Turnover Differential
1	Carolina Panthers	11	3	8
2	Arizona Cardinals	13	7	6
3	Denver Broncos	14	8	6
4	New York Jets	13	7	6
5	Atlanta Falcons	10	5	5
6	New England Patriots	7	2	5
7	Green Bay Packers	9	4	5
8	New York Giants	8	3	5
9	Minnesota Vikings	8	4	4
10	Buffalo Bills	10	6	4
11	Philadelphia Eagles	13	10	3
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	2	2
13	Cincinnati Bengals	8	6	2
14	St. Louis Rams	9	8	1
15	Seattle Seahawks	7	7	0
16	Oakland Raiders	9	9	0
17	Tennessee Titans	5	7	-2
18	San Diego Chargers	6	8	-2
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	10	-2
20	Kansas City Chiefs	4	7	-3
21	Baltimore Ravens	4	7	-3
22	Washington Redskins	6	9	-3
23	Cleveland Browns	5	8	-3
24	Miami Dolphins	3	6	-3
25	Chicago Bears	4	7	-3
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	6	-3
27	San Francisco 49ers	3	7	-4
28	New Orleans Saints	5	10	-5
29	Dallas Cowboys	3	8	-5
30	Detroit Lions	9	15	-6
31	Indianapolis Colts	5	12	-7
32	Houston Texans	2	10	-8

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2014, the Rams were the 3rd most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game (the same average as 2013). The Rams led the league in most penalty yards (1139), and were 30'th in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-257).

For a team that would like to keep the ball on the ground, penalties all too often force that team into a passing situation. Penalties kill drives, contribute to bad field position and can change momentum in a game. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

The Rams committed 8 penalties totalling 40 yards in the game against Green Bay. The Packers were flagged 7 times for 67 yards, resulting in a plus +27 Penalty Yards Differential for the Rams.

For the season, the Rams rank 16th in the league in Penalty Yards Differential (-14), a significant improvement over last seasons results.

Rank	Team	GP	Pen Yds	Opp. Pen Yds	Pen Yds Diff	Pen Yds Diff/Game
1	Arizona Cardinals	5	202	439	237	14.81
2	Philadelphia Eagles	5	276	440	164	10.25
3	Indianapolis Colts	5	314	475	161	10.06
4	Kansas City Chiefs	5	218	346	128	8.00
5	Miami Dolphins	4	267	384	117	7.31
6	New England Patriots	4	278	381	103	6.44
7	Detroit Lions	5	265	331	66	4.13
8	Oakland Raiders	5	311	360	49	3.06
9	Cincinnati Bengals	5	326	370	44	2.75
10	San Francisco 49ers	5	206	237	31	1.94
11	New York Giants	5	296	321	25	1.56
12	San Diego Chargers	4	209	234	25	1.56
13	Houston Texans	5	327	346	19	1.19
14	Dallas Cowboys	5	288	303	15	0.94
15	Tennessee Titans	4	269	270	1	0.06
16	Minnesota Vikings	4	224	210	-14	-0.88
17	St. Louis Rams	5	263	249	-14	-0.88
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	4	218	187	-31	-1.94
19	Cleveland Browns	5	364	329	-35	-2.19
20	Washington Redskins	5	360	320	-40	-2.50
21	New York Jets	4	336	294	-42	-2.63
22	Carolina Panthers	4	247	198	-49	-3.06
23	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	336	281	-55	-3.44
24	Baltimore Ravens	5	368	312	-56	-3.50
25	Green Bay Packers	5	330	264	-66	-4.13
26	Atlanta Falcons	5	334	240	-94	-5.88
27	Chicago Bears	5	371	269	-102	-6.38
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	391	285	-106	-6.63
29	New Orleans Saints	5	385	273	-112	-7.00
30	Denver Broncos	5	367	254	-113	-7.06
31	Buffalo Bills	5	490	363	-127	-7.94
32	Seattle Seahawks	5	321	192	-129	-8.06

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them. The higher the big play +/- the better as this shows the team more often generates big plays than gives them up.

In the game against the Packers, the Rams had 5 Rushing Big Plays (courtesy of another outstanding performance by Todd Gurley) and 1 Passing Big Play. The Rams defense allowed Green Bay only 3 Big Plays in total, two of which were TD passes to James Jones and Ty Montgomery from Aaron Rodgers. The Rams had a plus +3 Big Play Differential for the game.

After 5 games, the Rams rank 7th in the league in Big Play Differential (+6), mostly thanks to the efforts of RB Todd Gurley.

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
3	Carolina Panthers	259	27	19	8	10.42%	11	16
5	Cincinnati Bengals	321	32	14	18	9.97%	20	12
1	Arizona Cardinals	295	31	23	8	10.51%	21	10
11	Seattle Seahawks	319	27	20	7	8.46%	18	9
9	Buffalo Bills	301	26	16	10	8.64%	18	8
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	238	25	15	10	10.5%	18	7
6	St. Louis Rams	271	27	19	8	9.96%	21	6
10	New York Jets	269	23	17	6	8.55%	18	5
14	Jacksonville Jaguars	322	24	14	10	7.45%	20	4
4	Green Bay Packers	312	32	19	13	10.26%	29	3
15	Atlanta Falcons	350	26	17	9	7.43%	23	3
16	Chicago Bears	327	24	17	7	7.34%	21	3
19	Philadelphia Eagles	320	23	16	7	7.19%	20	3
21	Baltimore Ravens	339	24	15	9	7.08%	21	3
25	New York Giants	328	20	11	9	6.1%	18	2
13	Minnesota Vikings	239	18	14	4	7.53%	17	1
7	San Francisco 49ers	312	29	21	8	9.29%	29	0
8	Kansas City Chiefs	321	28	16	12	8.72%	28	0
18	San Diego Chargers	263	19	9	10	7.22%	19	0
17	Tennessee Titans	259	19	13	6	7.34%	20	-1
12	New England Patriots	265	20	11	9	7.55%	23	-3
22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	314	22	16	6	7.01%	25	-3
27	Dallas Cowboys	310	18	13	5	5.81%	21	-3
31	Denver Broncos	309	15	7	8	4.85%	19	-4
23	Indianapolis Colts	318	22	12	10	6.92%	27	-5
20	Cleveland Browns	324	23	10	13	7.1%	30	-7
28	Houston Texans	386	22	11	11	5.7%	29	-7
29	Washington Redskins	341	19	13	6	5.57%	27	-8
24	Miami Dolphins	246	16	9	7	6.5%	27	-11
26	New Orleans Saints	340	20	12	8	5.88%	33	-13
30	Oakland Raiders	314	16	6	10	5.1%	29	-13
32	Detroit Lions	327	10	3	7	3.06%	27	-17

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2014. 10 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential.

Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials. The higher the points per drive the better, and in theory the highest this statistic could be is 8, which would occur if a team scored a touchdown AND a two point conversion every time they have the ball.

In the game against Green Bay, the Rams scored 10 points on 13 drives (0.77 PPD), a horrible result for the offense. The Packers scored 17 points on 12 drives (1.42 PPD), a fine result for the Rams' defense. For the game, the Rams had a minus -0.65 Points Per Drive differential.

Heading into the Week 6 bye, the Rams rank 24th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (-0.51). The main reason for the low ranking is the performance of the offense, which is tied for 31st in the NFL in Points Per Drive.

	Team	Points Per Drive	Points Per Drive Against	Point Differential
1	Arizona Cardinals	3.28	1.48	1.8
2	New England Patriots	3.24	1.69	1.55
3	Green Bay Packers	2.49	1.5	0.99
4	Atlanta Falcons	2.89	1.96	0.93
5	New York Jets	1.86	1.12	0.74
6	Carolina Panthers	2.2	1.51	0.69
7	Cincinnati Bengals	2.55	1.87	0.68
8	Denver Broncos	1.92	1.34	0.58
9	New York Giants	2.44	1.98	0.46
10	Buffalo Bills	2.07	1.67	0.4
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.13	1.79	0.35
12	Seattle Seahawks	2.06	1.78	0.27
13	Tennessee Titans	2.22	1.98	0.24
14	Philadelphia Eagles	1.8	1.58	0.22
15	Minnesota Vikings	1.86	1.74	0.12
16	Baltimore Ravens	2.12	2.21	-0.09
17	Washington Redskins	1.8	1.96	-0.17
18	Cleveland Browns	2.15	2.32	-0.17
19	Indianapolis Colts	1.77	1.98	-0.21
20	San Diego Chargers	2.18	2.44	-0.26
21	Oakland Raiders	1.88	2.21	-0.34
22	Kansas City Chiefs	1.89	2.38	-0.5
23	Dallas Cowboys	1.84	2.34	-0.5
24	St. Louis Rams	1.47	1.98	-0.51
25	Houston Texans	1.52	2.11	-0.59
26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.8	2.43	-0.62
27	Miami Dolphins	1.41	2.1	-0.69
28	New Orleans Saints	1.81	2.55	-0.75
29	Detroit Lions	1.48	2.3	-0.82
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.58	2.5	-0.92
31	Chicago Bears	1.56	2.78	-1.22
32	San Francisco 49ers	1.47	2.75	-1.27

Score At Half-Time

There was a semblance of Jekyll (the first half) and Hyde (the second half) in most of the Rams' games last season. The teams' point differential in the first half of games: plus 58. In the second half of games: minus 88. The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams haven't won a game in the past two plus seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

The Rams held true to form in the game against the Packers. In a closely played first half, the Rams went into the locker room losing 14-10. The Rams were unable to generate any scoring drives in the second half and succumbed 24-10 to the Pack. In an interesting reversal of form, the Rams (in contrast to 2014) are playing better football overall in the 2nd half of games when compared to the first half of games. In five games this season, the Rams have only been outscored 54-51 by their opponents in the second half, while being outscored 59-33 in the first half.

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1	Negative	Positive	Positive	Positive	10  10	Won 34-31 OT
2	Positive	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  17	Lost 24-10
3	Even	Positive	Negative	Negative	3  9	Lost 12-6
4	Positive	Positive	Positive	Negative	10  9	Won 24-22
5	Negative	Positive	Negative	Positive	10  14	Lost 24-10

I could easily add another pair of offensive statistics into the mix to show just how much the Rams' offense is responsible for the teams' 2-3 record: 3rd Down Conversions and Red Zone Touchdown Percentage. The Rams rank 29th in the NFL in 3rd Down Efficiency (31.3%) and rank 29th in the league in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (42.86%).

Pro Football Focus Player Grades

Here are the top takeaways and highest-graded players from the Packers’ 24-10 win over the Rams.

St. Louis Rams

– DT Aaron Donald (+1.3) has definitely cooled off a bit after what was a ridiculously hot start. While this game was still positively-graded for him, thanks to three QB hurries and three solo stops, it wasn’t quite like some of his last few games. The Packers really schemed around him this week, double-teaming him seemingly every play, and running away from him every chance they could. They did a very good job of limiting the damage he could cause, and forcing the rest of the Rams’ defense to try and beat them.

– QB Nick Foles (-8.4) was dreadful this week, posting a -7.0 passing grade along with two delay of game penalties. He struggled under pressure, which is unfortunate since he was under pressure on 61 percent of his dropbacks. There, he went 5-for-17 for 110 yards and two interceptions. On his 13 attempts without pressure, he averaged a miniscule 2.4 yards per attempt, and also threw two interceptions. Even when you take away his throwaways, a spike and a time where he was hit as he threw, he still only completed 45.8% of his passes on the day. On a day where the defense came up big against a strong Packers’ offense, Foles really cost the Rams this game.

– The Rams’ offensive line was not doing Foles or their running game any favors this week. LG Jamon Brown was the worst of the bunch, posting a team-low grade of -8.7. That was thanks in large part to a -5.7 grade against the run. He was constantly beaten by the Packers’ interior defensive line, and rarely won any blocking battles. As a whole, the offensive line allowed three sacks, nine QB hits and nine additional hurries. The lone bright spot was RG Garrett Reynolds, who posted a +2.1 run block grade coming on in relief of injured RG Rodger Saffold (-5.1). Saffold managed to allow a QB hit and three QB hurries despite only being on the field for nine passing plays before being injured.

Top performers:

DE Robert Quinn (+3.1)
S Mark Barron (+2.2)
LB James Laurinaitis (+2.1)
S T.J. McDonald (+1.9)
DE William Hayes (+1.9)

Green Bay Packers

– QB Aaron Rodgers (-3.8) had an incredibly uncharacteristic bad game yesterday, posting his lowest passing grade since Week 12 of 2008. It wasn’t a case of too much pressure, as he only felt pressure on 23 percent of his dropbacks, but rather he just simply seemed off. His second interception was a great play by the defender, but a read and a throw Rodgers would love to have back. There was also a two-play sequence in the third quarter which began with Rodgers throwing the ball directly at the hands of a Rams’ defensive lineman, only to see him drop it. The very next play Rodgers held the ball in a bad spot with one hand, and was stripped. This seemed like an anomaly more than any kind of trend, but it was certainly strange to see Rodgers struggle like he did.

– The Packers defense played well, but RE Mike Daniels (+6.4) was on another level for this team. Almost every play, especially in the run game (+4.5 run defense grade), Daniels was getting involved. He made seven tackles, five of them stops, and also had two QB hits and a hurry. A lot of his work in the run game didn’t show up on the stat sheet. He consistently beat his block so quickly that the Rams’ running backs were forced to cut away from their intended hole, and try another non-designed direction. Daniels was the main reason that the Rams (not counting Gurley’s big 55-yard run) averaged only 3.9 yards per carry.

– The duo of Clay Matthews (+3.9) and Julius Peppers (+3.8) were a two-man wrecking crew when it came to rushing the passer in yesterday’s game. They each had identical grades of +4.2 in pass rushing, and together combined for three sacks, six QB hits and four additional hurries. On almost every third down play they were getting some kind of pressure on Rams QB Nick Foles. The Packers also had a nice contribution from LE Letroy Guion (+1.8), who managed one QB hit and two QB hurries on only eight pass rushes. It was a good day for the Packers pass rush, as they totalled four sacks, 13 QB hits and 10 QB hurries.

Top performers:

RE Mike Daniels (+6.4)
ILB Clay Matthews (+3.9)
OLB Julius Peppers (+3.8)
OLB Nick Perry (+2.6)
OLB Mike Neal (+2.3)