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By any measure - statistical or otherwise - the Rams were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Vikings this past weekend. Jeff Fisher will need to address many issues before the Rams travel to Tampa Bay this weekend.
Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalties Per Game, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".
Turnover Differential
It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 7 wins in 2013. The team had a positive turnover differential in 6 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other victory. Overall, the Rams finished 9'th in turnover differential last season. In 2013, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in this key statistic.
Against the Vikings in Week 1, the Rams' QB's threw a pair of interceptions, while the defense failed to create a single turnover. The first interception - just before the end of the half - was critical to the outcome of the game. It allowed the Vikings to score a touchdown before half-time, and gave them a 13-0 lead heading into the locker room. Coupled with a missed field goal by Greg Zuerlein, a potential 3 point deficit at the half was squandered.
| Team | Takeaways | Giveaways | Turnover Differential | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | New England Patriots | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Cleveland Browns | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Houston Texans | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Seattle Seahawks | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Washington Redskins | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| 21 | New Orleans Saints | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 | Arizona Cardinals | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 24 | New York Jets | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| 26 | New York Giants | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 27 | Chicago Bears | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 29 | St. Louis Rams | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| 32 | Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 4 | -4 |
Team Penalties Per Game
In 2013, the Rams were the 2'nd most penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game. An excessive number of penalties can stall drives, and can keep opponents' drives alive. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goal should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game.
The Rams began this season with 13 penalties, in their game against Minnesota. After the first week of the season, the Rams lead the league in penalties.
| Team | Offensive Penalties Per Game | Defensive Penalties Per Game | Penalties Per Game | Penalties Per Play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Rams | 8.0 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 0.21 |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | 9.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.16 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 0.16 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 6.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 0.20 |
| 5 | New York Jets | 7.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 0.17 |
| 6 | Dallas Cowboys | 8.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.16 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | 6.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 0.14 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 5.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 0.11 |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | 4.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 0.16 |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 5.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 0.13 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 0.14 |
| 12 | Detroit Lions | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 0.13 |
| 13 | Cleveland Browns | 6.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 0.13 |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0.10 |
| 15 | Denver Broncos | 5.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.10 |
| 16 | Washington Redskins | 4.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.11 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings | 6.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 0.12 |
| 18 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.07 |
| 19 | San Diego Chargers | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.10 |
| 20 | Carolina Panthers | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.09 |
| 21 | Houston Texans | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.11 |
| 22 | Arizona Cardinals | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.08 |
| 23 | New York Giants | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.07 |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.06 |
| 25 | Chicago Bears | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.06 |
| 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.06 |
| 27 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.06 |
| 28 | Oakland Raiders | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.08 |
| 29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.05 |
| 30 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.05 |
| 31 | New Orleans Saints | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.04 |
| 32 | Baltimore Ravens | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.04 |
Big Play Differential
Big play differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them.
In the game against Minnesota, the Rams had 3 passing big plays, and zero rushing big plays. The Rams' defense gave up 6 big plays in total, for a minus -3 differential.
| Rank | Team | Plays | Big Plays | Rush | Pass | Big Play % | BPA | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New York Jets | 65 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12.31% | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 66 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12.12% | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 82 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10.98% | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 69 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10.14% | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 56 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12.5% | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | 63 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7.94% | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 57 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10.53% | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | 63 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7.94% | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons | 69 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11.59% | 6 | 2 |
| 7 | San Francisco 49ers | 54 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 11.11% | 4 | 2 |
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | 65 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10.77% | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Tennessee Titans | 75 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6.67% | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 85 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5.88% | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | 64 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 14.06% | 8 | 1 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 55 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7.27% | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | Miami Dolphins | 71 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7.04% | 4 | 1 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 67 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11.94% | 9 | -1 |
| 22 | New England Patriots | 80 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5% | 5 | -1 |
| 25 | Carolina Panthers | 68 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4.41% | 4 | -1 |
| 12 | New Orleans Saints | 70 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8.57% | 8 | -2 |
| 13 | San Diego Chargers | 60 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8.33% | 7 | -2 |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 63 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6.35% | 6 | -2 |
| 21 | Kansas City Chiefs | 56 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5.36% | 5 | -2 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 64 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.69% | 5 | -2 |
| 23 | St. Louis Rams | 63 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4.76% | 6 | -3 |
| 29 | Houston Texans | 56 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3.57% | 5 | -3 |
| 26 | Chicago Bears | 69 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4.35% | 7 | -4 |
| 31 | New York Giants | 57 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.75% | 5 | -4 |
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 71 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.23% | 9 | -6 |
| 28 | Oakland Raiders | 49 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4.08% | 8 | -6 |
| 30 | Green Bay Packers | 57 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3.51% | 8 | -6 |
| 32 | Indianapolis Colts | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.43% | 7 | -6 |
Points Per Drive Differential
Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2013. 12 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential.
In Week 1, the Rams gave up 3.09 Points Per Drive against the Vikings, while only scoring 0.5 Points Per Drive. Both results were dead last in the NFL this past week. The Rams scored 6 points on 12 drives.
| Team | Points Per Drive | Points Per Drive Against | Point Differential | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 3.09 | 0.5 | 2.59 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 3.6 | 1.6 | 2 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 3.18 | 1.4 | 1.78 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 3.11 | 1.7 | 1.41 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.27 | 1.06 | 1.2 |
| 6 | Tennessee Titans | 2 | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | 1.7 | 0.55 | 1.15 |
| 8 | Miami Dolphins | 2.36 | 1.54 | 0.82 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 2.58 | 2 | 0.58 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1.92 | 1.33 | 0.58 |
| 11 | Carolina Panthers | 1.82 | 1.27 | 0.55 |
| 12 | New York Jets | 1.58 | 1.17 | 0.42 |
| 13 | Buffalo Bills | 1.92 | 1.67 | 0.25 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.31 | 2.25 | 0.06 |
| 15 | San Diego Chargers | 1.55 | 1.5 | 0.05 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 3.4 | 3.36 | 0.04 |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 3.36 | 3.4 | -0.04 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | 1.5 | 1.55 | -0.05 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 2.25 | 2.31 | -0.06 |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | 1.67 | 1.92 | -0.25 |
| 21 | Oakland Raiders | 1.17 | 1.58 | -0.42 |
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.27 | 1.82 | -0.55 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 1.33 | 1.92 | -0.58 |
| 24 | Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 2.58 | -0.58 |
| 25 | New England Patriots | 1.54 | 2.36 | -0.82 |
| 26 | Washington Redskins | 0.55 | 1.7 | -1.15 |
| 27 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.83 | 2 | -1.17 |
| 28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.06 | 2.27 | -1.2 |
| 29 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.7 | 3.11 | -1.41 |
| 30 | New York Giants | 1.4 | 3.18 | -1.78 |
| 31 | Green Bay Packers | 1.6 | 3.6 | -2 |
| 32 | St. Louis Rams | 0.5 | 3.09 | -2.59 |
Score At Half-Time
In 2013, the Rams won 7 games. In all 7 games, the Rams were either leading or tied at half-time. In Week 1 against the Vikings, the Rams were down 13-0 at the half.
Weekly Summary
| Week | Turnover Diff. | Big Play Diff. | PPD Diff. | Penalties | Half-Time | Game Score |
| 1 | Negative | Negative | Negative | 13 - 1'st | 0-13 | Lost 34-6 |
All statistical charts are courtesy of Sporting Charts.