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After a gritty 19-17 win against Tampa Bay in Week 2, the Rams came out hot in the first half of their game with the Dallas Cowboys. The Rams held a 21-0 lead with just over two minutes remaining in the first half. It was all pretty much downhill for the remainder of the game. The Cowboys scored 10 points in the final two minutes of the first half, and outscored the Rams 24-10 in the second half. This game was eminently winnable, with mistakes, turnovers, and penalties ultimately deciding the outcome.
Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".
Why were these 5 particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2014 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.
Turnover Differential
It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 7 wins in 2013. The team had a positive turnover differential in 6 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other victory. Overall, the Rams finished 9'th in Turnover Differential last season. In 2013, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in this key statistic.
In the game against the Dallas Cowboys, the Rams had a pair of takeaways. The first was a forced fumble caused by Alec Ogletree - and recovered by Cody Davis - in the first quarter, stopping a drive in Rams territory. The second - an interception by CB Janoris Jenkins - resulted in a return for a touchdown, and a 21-0 lead for the Rams late in the second quarter. QB Austin Davis threw a pair of interceptions at inopportune times during the game. The first - a pick-six deep in Rams territory with 6 minutes left in the game - turned a 3 point Cowboys lead into a 10 point lead. The second - with just over a minute remaining in the game - sealed the victory for the Cowboys. A botched snap by Scott Wells near the end of the second quarter proved costly. It allowed the Cowboys to kick a field goal before the half, reducing the Rams' lead to 11 points. For the game, the Rams had two takeaway's and three giveaway's, a minus -1 Turnover Differential.
The Rams are currently tied for 25'th in the league in Turnover Differential:
| Team | Takeaways | Giveaways | Turnover Differential | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | San Diego Chargers | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Tennessee Titans | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| 19 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 7 | -2 |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| 23 | Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| 25 | Detroit Lions | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| 26 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| 27 | New Orleans Saints | 1 | 4 | -3 |
| 28 | St. Louis Rams | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| 29 | New York Giants | 3 | 7 | -4 |
| 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 9 | -4 |
| 31 | New York Jets | 2 | 6 | -4 |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0 | 5 | -5 |
Team Penalty Yards Differential
In 2013, the Rams were the 2'nd most penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game. An excessive number of penalties can stall drives, and can keep opponents' drives alive. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.
After committing 5 penalties against Tampa Bay, the Rams were flagged for 8 penalties in the game against Dallas. Particularly telling is the difference in penalty yards between Dallas and St. Louis. Dallas committed 3 penalties for 15 yards. The Rams' 8 penalties resulted in 119 yards of lost field position, and greatly affected drives on both sides of the ball.
After three games, the Rams are tied for 7'th most-penalized team in the NFL. The Rams are 2'nd in the league in most penalty yards [305], and are worst in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential [minus -200]:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pen Yds | Opp. Pen Yds | Pen Yds Diff | Pen Yds Diff/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakland Raiders | 3 | 93 | 249 | 156 | 9.75 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 162 | 314 | 152 | 9.50 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 110 | 246 | 136 | 8.50 |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 96 | 214 | 118 | 7.38 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 112 | 227 | 115 | 7.19 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 3 | 196 | 304 | 108 | 6.75 |
| 7 | Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 130 | 224 | 94 | 5.88 |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 114 | 194 | 80 | 5.00 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 3 | 96 | 170 | 74 | 4.63 |
| 10 | New York Giants | 3 | 126 | 196 | 70 | 4.38 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | 3 | 130 | 191 | 61 | 3.81 |
| 12 | Miami Dolphins | 3 | 111 | 163 | 52 | 3.25 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 210 | 256 | 46 | 2.88 |
| 14 | San Diego Chargers | 3 | 144 | 186 | 42 | 2.63 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 150 | 184 | 34 | 2.13 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 155 | 170 | 15 | 0.94 |
| 17 | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 161 | 175 | 14 | 0.88 |
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 202 | 192 | -10 | -0.63 |
| 19 | Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 156 | 145 | -11 | -0.69 |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 179 | 167 | -12 | -0.75 |
| 21 | Denver Broncos | 3 | 168 | 141 | -27 | -1.69 |
| 22 | Houston Texans | 3 | 170 | 126 | -44 | -2.75 |
| 23 | Detroit Lions | 3 | 158 | 100 | -58 | -3.63 |
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | 3 | 205 | 139 | -66 | -4.13 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 262 | 195 | -67 | -4.19 |
| 26 | New York Jets | 3 | 265 | 150 | -115 | -7.19 |
| 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 303 | 166 | -137 | -8.56 |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 239 | 100 | -139 | -8.69 |
| 29 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 300 | 159 | -141 | -8.81 |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 258 | 107 | -151 | -9.44 |
| 31 | New England Patriots | 3 | 322 | 133 | -189 | -11.81 |
| 32 | St. Louis Rams | 3 | 305 | 105 | -200 | -12.50 |
Big Play Differential
Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them.
In the game against Dallas, the Rams had 2 passing big plays, and 2 rushing big plays. The Rams' defense gave up 5 big plays in total. One of the big plays the Rams gave up had a significant influence on the outcome of the game. Dez Bryant caught a 68-yard touchdown pass against blown coverage in the 3'rd quarter. The Rams' Big Play Differential for Week 3 was minus -1, the same differential as last week versus the Buccaneers.
The Rams are currently tied for 26'th in the league in Big Play Differential:
| Rank | Team | Plays | Big Plays | Rush | Pass | Big Play % | BPA | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Washington Redskins | 220 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 8.64% | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 213 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 10.33% | 13 | 9 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 181 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 9.39% | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 180 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 8.33% | 7 | 8 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | 185 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 8.11% | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | New York Jets | 208 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 7.69% | 9 | 7 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 214 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 8.88% | 14 | 5 |
| 8 | Arizona Cardinals | 187 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 8.56% | 11 | 5 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | 199 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 9.55% | 15 | 4 |
| 30 | Detroit Lions | 207 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4.83% | 6 | 4 |
| 9 | Tennessee Titans | 188 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 8.51% | 14 | 2 |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings | 172 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7.56% | 11 | 2 |
| 19 | San Francisco 49ers | 181 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 6.63% | 10 | 2 |
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 189 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 11.11% | 20 | 1 |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | 191 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 8.38% | 15 | 1 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 190 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 7.37% | 14 | 0 |
| 18 | New Orleans Saints | 207 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 7.25% | 15 | 0 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns | 191 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 9.42% | 20 | -2 |
| 20 | New York Giants | 196 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 6.63% | 15 | -2 |
| 31 | New England Patriots | 210 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3.81% | 10 | -2 |
| 25 | Carolina Panthers | 184 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5.98% | 14 | -3 |
| 26 | Miami Dolphins | 212 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 5.66% | 15 | -3 |
| 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 164 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 7.32% | 16 | -4 |
| 22 | Kansas City Chiefs | 202 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 6.44% | 17 | -4 |
| 24 | San Diego Chargers | 198 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 6.06% | 16 | -4 |
| 21 | Houston Texans | 183 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 6.56% | 17 | -5 |
| 23 | St. Louis Rams | 195 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 6.15% | 17 | -5 |
| 27 | Green Bay Packers | 176 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 5.11% | 14 | -5 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | 164 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4.88% | 14 | -6 |
| 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 174 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 8.05% | 23 | -9 |
| 32 | Chicago Bears | 184 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3.8% | 16 | -9 |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | 216 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5.09% | 24 | -13 |
Points Per Drive Differential
Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2013. 12 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential. Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials.
In Sunday's game, the Rams had ten drives in total, and scored 24 points on those drives [2.4 points per drive]. 2.4 points per drive represents the Rams' best offensive effort of the season. The Cowboys had ten drives in total, and scored 27 points on those drives [2.7 points per drive]. The Rams' Points Per Drive Differential versus Dallas: minus -0.3.
After three games, the Rams rank 30'th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential:
| Team | Points Per Drive | Points Per Drive Against | Point Differential | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.22 | 0.94 | 1.28 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 2.94 | 2 | 0.94 |
| 3 | San Diego Chargers | 2.23 | 1.53 | 0.69 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2.59 | 1.9 | 0.69 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 1.94 | 1.36 | 0.58 |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | 2.13 | 1.55 | 0.58 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 1.97 | 1.41 | 0.56 |
| 8 | Indianapolis Colts | 2.71 | 2.17 | 0.55 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.44 | 1.94 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Houston Texans | 1.94 | 1.47 | 0.47 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 2.03 | 1.61 | 0.42 |
| 12 | Chicago Bears | 2.14 | 1.82 | 0.32 |
| 13 | Washington Redskins | 2.19 | 1.88 | 0.31 |
| 14 | Denver Broncos | 2.21 | 1.91 | 0.29 |
| 15 | Buffalo Bills | 1.77 | 1.53 | 0.24 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 2.79 | 2.57 | 0.21 |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | 2.48 | 2.3 | 0.18 |
| 18 | Carolina Panthers | 1.91 | 1.81 | 0.1 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 2.39 | 2.33 | 0.05 |
| 20 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1.85 | 1.86 | -0.01 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.28 | 2.32 | -0.04 |
| 22 | San Francisco 49ers | 2.21 | 2.34 | -0.13 |
| 23 | New York Jets | 1.77 | 2 | -0.23 |
| 24 | Minnesota Vikings | 1.56 | 1.81 | -0.24 |
| 25 | New York Giants | 1.76 | 2.2 | -0.44 |
| 26 | Miami Dolphins | 1.45 | 2.18 | -0.73 |
| 27 | Tennessee Titans | 1.19 | 1.97 | -0.78 |
| 28 | Green Bay Packers | 1.74 | 2.55 | -0.81 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | 1.19 | 2.03 | -0.84 |
| 30 | St. Louis Rams | 1.87 | 2.83 | -0.97 |
| 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.32 | 2.97 | -1.65 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.1 | 3.05 | -1.95 |
Score At Half-Time
In 2013, the Rams finished with a 7-9 record. In all 7 victories, the Rams were either tied or leading at half-time.
Despite leading 21-10 at the half, the Rams could not hold on for the victory. The Cowboys outscored the Rams 24-10 in the second half, and went on to win the game 34-31.
The statistical charts are courtesy of Sporting Charts.
Weekly Summary
| Week | Turnover Diff. | Big Play Diff. | PPD Diff. | PY Diff. | Half-Time | Game Score |
| 1 | Negative | Negative | Negative | Negative | 0 13 | Lost 34-6 |
| 2 | Even | Negative | Positive | Negative | 10 7 | Won 19-17 |
| 3 | Negative | Negative | Negative | Negative | 21 10 | Lost 34-31 |
It's difficult to draw definitive conclusions from such a small sample size. Notwithstanding the sample size, the statistics being tracked - when looked at as a whole - appear to show a distinct correlation with the Rams fortunes in each of their three games this season.