Dubs' Pigskin Picks & St. Louis Rams Preview - Week 3

Week 2 of the NFL season is now in the history books. The Rams are back at home to face the Cowboys, after a gritty road victory over Tampa Bay. Can Dubs continue to stay with the leaders in the weekly picks contest?

By Frank "Dubs" Dobozy Sep 19, 2014, 9:00am CDT

Week 2 of the NFL regular season is now in the history books. The Rams are coming off a gritty win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, their first victory of the season. This weekend the Rams host the Dallas Cowboys, a bitter rival historically. The game will be a tough match up for the Rams, but one that's eminently winnable. It's also time for Dubs to make a move on the leaders, in the weekly Pigskin Picks contest.

Week 2 Results

Week	Wins Straight Up	Wins vs Spread	Hot Picks vs. Spread	Rams Straight Up

Last Week	9 7	8 8	2 1	0 1

Season	19 13	17 15	3 3	0 2

Percentage	59.4	53.1	50	0

Pickwatch is a site devoted to tracking weekly picks results from NFL experts, analysts, media types, and pundits (link). This year, they're tracking 117 experts on a weekly basis. I'll be competing against them again this year, and will publish the weekly results! How did I fare against the experts in Week 2? My 9-7 record puts me into a 19'th place tie in the overall standings, three behind the leaders. It's a rare week when a 9-7 record actually allows one to move up six places in the standings. There's plenty of time to catch the leaders. In 2013, it took me until Week 15 to catch - and surpass - the leaders. TST's own Ryan Van Bibber stands in a tie for 72'nd, finishing the week with an 8-8 record (16-16 for the season).

How did I make out with my "Hot Picks Against The Spread" last week? Both New England and Arizona won easily (and covered the spread) in games versus Minnesota and the New York Giants, respectively. Seattle was upset by San Diego, and did not cover the spread. Record for the week: 2-1.

2014 NFL Team Records

NFL ATS RANKINGS

	Straight-Up			Against The Spread			Over/Under
Team	Total	Home	Away	Total	Home	Away	Total	Home	Away
Arizona Cardinals	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Atlanta Falcons	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0
Baltimore Ravens	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0
Buffalo Bills	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Carolina Panthers	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Chicago Bears	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Cleveland Browns	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0
Dallas Cowboys	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Denver Broncos	2-0-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0
Detroit Lions	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0
Green Bay Packers	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	0-1-1	0-0-1	0-1-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0
Houston Texans	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0
Indianapolis Colts	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	2-0-0
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Miami Dolphins	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0
Minnesota Vikings	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
New England Patriots	1-1-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0	0-0-0	1-1-0
New Orleans Saints	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	2-0-0	0-0-0	2-0-0
New York Giants	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0
New York Jets	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	0-1-1	0-1-0	0-0-1	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0
Oakland Raiders	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0
San Diego Chargers	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0
San Francisco 49ers	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0
Seattle Seahawks	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	2-0-0	1-0-0	1-0-0
St. Louis Rams	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0	0-2-0	0-2-0	0-0-0
Tennessee Titans	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	1-1-0	0-1-0	1-0-0	0-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0
Washington Redskins	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	1-1-0	1-0-0	0-1-0

Dubs' Pigskin Picks - Week 3

Home	Away	Spread	Straight Up	Vs. Spread	Score

Atlanta	Tampa Bay	Atl 6	Atlanta	Atlanta	27 17

Buffalo	San Diego	Buf 1	San Diego	San Diego	23 14

Cincinnati	Tennessee	Cin 7	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	26 13

Cleveland	Baltimore	Even	Baltimore	Baltimore	20 13

Detroit	Green Bay	Det 2 1/2	Green Bay	Green Bay	24 21

St. Louis	Dallas	Even	St. Louis	St. Louis	23 20

New England	Oakland	NE 15 1/2	New England	New England	28 7

New Orleans	Minnesota	NO 10 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans	24 13

NY Giants	Houston	Hou 1	Houston	Houston	23 20

Philadelphia	Washington	Phi 7	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	27 17

Jacksonville	Indianapolis	Ind 7	Indianapolis	Indianpolis	30 17

Arizona	San Francisco	SF 2 1/2	San Francisco	San Francisco	20 17

Miami	Kansas City	Mia 4	Miami	Kansas City	23 20

Seattle	Denver	Sea 5	Seattle	Denver	24 21

Carolina	Pittsburgh	Car 3	Carolina	Carolina	20 14

NY Jets	Chicago	NY 2 1/2	Chicago	Chicago	24 21

Hot Picks Against The Spread

Carolina over Pittsburgh - The Panthers' defense looks every bit as tough as last years' unit. The D - and Cam Newton - prove to be the difference against an improved Pittsburgh team.

Indianapolis over Jacksonville - The Colts are off to an 0-2 start. This is a must-win game for them, against the lowly Jaguars.

Cincinnati over Tennessee - The Bengals just keep rolling along, and are off to a 2-0 start to the season. They should have little trouble against the erratic Titans.

Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams

The Dallas Cowboys are one of the more up-and-down teams in the NFL. Some weeks they look like Super Bowl contenders; other weeks they look like basement dwellers. The ups and downs are reflected in the Cowboys' regular season record: 17-17 since the beginning of the 2012 season. Which Dallas team will show up this week at the EJD?

Keys For The Rams vs. Dallas

The Rams must get off to a fast start in Sunday's game. In each of their seven victories last season, the Rams were either tied or leading at the half. In their season-opening loss to Minnesota, the Rams were losing 13-0 at the half. Against Tampa Bay last week, the Rams led 10-7 at half-time.
Winning the turnover battle. In six of their seven wins last year, the Rams had a positive turnover differential, and a zero differential in the other victory. Against the Vikings in Week 1, the Rams had a minus-2 turnover differential. In the game against Tampa Bay, the Rams' turnover differential was even.
The Rams must establish the running game, and get some push from the offensive line, which thus far has played erratically. The Cowboys have allowed 4.86 yards per rushing attempt in their two games this season.
With CB Trumaine Johnson still out for 2-4 weeks, the Rams could have match up problems with Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant and TE Jason Witten.
Minimizing mistakes and penalties. The Rams have the youngest - and most inexperienced - team in the league (for the third consecutive year). The Rams were flagged for 13 penalties in their loss to the Vikings. Versus Tampa Bay, the Rams committed 5 penalties officially. Including the offset and declined penalties, the Rams committed 9 infractions in total.
Containing RB DeMarco Murray. The Rams were much improved against the run in 2013, finishing 9'th in the league, despite Murray's 175 yard rushing onslaught against them last year. Murray has fared well against the Rams historically, rushing for 253 yards in the 2011 contest between the 2 teams. The Rams' defense has given up 342 rushing yards in two games this year (29'th in the league).
Pressuring QB Tony Romo. The Rams have a pass rush that could give the Cowboys' offensive line fits. Watch for the match up between Cowboys OT Tyron Smith and Rams' DE Robert Quinn. The Rams are noted for their defensive line depth. William Hayes will again replace the injured Chris Long, who is missed for both his strong weekly performances and his leadership.
QB Austin Davis will need to replicate his performance of last week, against the Buccaneers.

Key Stats From Week Two and Keys To A Winning Season take in-depth looks at what the Rams must accomplish to get above .500 and have a successful season.

Prediction: Rams 23 - Dallas 20

Perspective On The Rams vs. Cowboys

CBS Sports' Pete Prisco and Pat Kirwan preview the NFL Week 3 matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the St. Louis Rams:

Former Dallas Cowboy Daryl Johnston previews the game between the Rams and the Dallas Cowboys on 101 ESPN: