Brian Quick: Breaking out or breaking even?

Brian Quick has all the physical tools you would want in a top flight NFL wide receiver.

At the 2012 NFL Combine, he measured in at 6'4" and 220 lbs with 34.25" arm length and 9.25" hands. As a former basketball player and high jumper, Quick showed the ability in college to routinely win the battle for the contested catch through body positioning and athletic ability. His 4.55 second 40 yard dash time wasn't in line with the likes of Calvin Johnson (4.35 seconds) but it was almost identical to that of Dez Bryant (4.52 seconds).

With all the potential, it was the raw part which stood out most during his first two seasons in the NFL. Over those two years he managed just 29 receptions for 458 yards and 4 TDs. Those modest numbers certainly had many St. Louis Rams fans losing their patience. Each of his 4 TD receptions were highlight reel worthy, with with only 4 of those plays over 2 seasons it appeared Quick was headed towards being yet another draft bust.

Entering the 2014 NFL season there was a bit of "make or break"-itis going around the Rams, it was a make or break year for Sam Bradford, Brian Quick and for some, even Jeff Fisher. Quick had a very strong training camp, flashing the potential time and again in practices. This was nothing new as Quick had his moments during his first two seasons as well, only to then disappear for long stretches of time. The only way to see if Quick had actually progressed and "turned the corner" was to wait for the regular season.

While the loss of Sam Bradford during the preseason surely means a lower statistical output for all Rams WRs, there is still plenty of opportunity for Quick to show he has made the leap from raw prospect to NFL receiver.

The 2014 NFL season couldn't have started any worse for the St. Louis Rams, the 34-6 drubbing at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings was a near total team failure. One of the lone bright spots was 3rd year receiver Brian Quick. Quick had 7 receptions on 9 targets for a total of 99 receiving yards. While those numbers don't jump off the page they do represent 31% of the Rams total yards and 40% of the teams passing yards in Week 1. More importantly than the numbers is Quick was looked to early and often, and delivered with tough catch after tough catch. Quick followed up his strong Week 1 performance with another 7 catch effort for 74 yards at Tampa Bay. With two solid outings in the books for 2014 it is starting to look as if Quick really is putting it all together. In an effort to put it all into perspective I looked up some receiver statistics at sportingcharts.net

The above chart shows Quick's statistics through the 2014 NFL season, the NFL Rank column is among WRs with at least 10 targets. In terms of catch rate Quick is very high, just below Golden Tate (14 targets) and tied with Emmanuel Sanders (18 targets). Some notable names within a few percentage points of Quick on the first down percentage item are Calvin Johnson (45.8% of 24 tgts), Dez Bryant (45% of 20 tgts), and Roddy White, Anquan Boldin, and Sammy Watkins all at 46.7% on 15 targets. The final columns are related to drops, and while it is disappointing to see any drops so early in the season the 5.6% drop rate isn't terrible.

Some notable names with similar or much worse rates: Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant at 5% (1 drop 20 tgts), Calvin Johnson 8.3% (2 drops 24 tgts), TY Hilton 9.1% (2 drops 22 tgts) and Demaruius Thomas 16.7% (3 drops 18 tgts). So what about the more traditional statistics, where does Quick rank among NFL WRs in terms of yards, receptions and 1st downs? Quick comes in at 8th, tied for 5th, and tied for 8th respectively, among NFL wide receivers according to stats on ESPN's website.

So what do all these numbers and rankings mean about Quick and whether or not he is the future #1 WR the Rams drafted him to be? Well the first two weeks certainly show some promise for Quick, however, a two week sample size is far too small to put him into the conversation as a legitimate #1 receiver. If he continues to produce at this relatively modest level throughout the 2014 season his projected numbers would be 112 receptions for 1,384 yards. In an offense hampered by spotty offensive line play, and no franchise QB to deliver the ball, I would be more than thrilled with that level of production.

Thanks for reading and as always,Go Rams!!!