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So...
- This took me waaaaaaay too long. I wanted to get it done right after the draft, except...
- I put waaaaaaay too much effort into this. I looked into GM historical trends. I looked into positional trends. I looked at rosters and contracts and depth charts....for a 3-round 2015 mock nearly a year out. I'm not sure why I did this.
- That being said, try stifling your inner @PFTCommenter. There's no reason to emote over this. The picks? They're going to be 99% wrong even if 50% of these do end up being taken in the first three rounds. The order? Just like the MTD Mock Draft, I used Bovada's Super Bowl odds at the same time MTD did. And I made trades. And I made more trades. So calm thy inner internet commenter and try to be a good SB Nation bro.
- I also made trades because the current draft paradigm makes mocks without trades pointless. At least try. Fail, sure, but try. It's not as if my first 2014 mock was built for accuracy... Bear in mind the trade at #4 is a result from the trade in the 2014 NFL Draft that Buffalo made to move up for Sammy Watkins.
Enough. Onto mockery.
Round 1
Rd# | Ovr# | Team | Last | First | POS | School |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | TEN (via JAX*) | Winston | Jameis | QB | Florida St. |
2 | 2 | OAK | Mariota | Marcus | QB | Oregon |
3 | 3 | JAX (via TEN*) | Williams | Leonard | DT | USC |
4 | 4 | CLE (real via BUF) | Strong | Jaelen | WR | Arizona St. |
5 | 5 | NYJ | Agholor | Nelson | WR | USC |
6 | 6 | MIA (via MIN+) | Ekpre-Olomu | Ifo | CB | Oregon |
7 | 7 | WAS | Diggs | Stefon | WR | Maryland |
8 | 8 | TB | Petty | Bryce | QB | Baylor |
9 | 9 | MIN (via MIA+) | Gregory | Randy | DE | Nebraska |
10 | 10 | CLE | Calhoun | Shilique | DE | Michigan St. |
11 | 11 | HOU (via STL%) | Fajardo | Cody | QB | Nevada |
12 | 12 | NYG | Erving | Cameron | OT | Florida St. |
13 | 13 | DET | Mills | Jalen | CB/S | LSU |
14 | 14 | DAL | Green-Beckham | Dorial | WR | |
15 | 15 | SD | Fields | Devonte | DE/3-4 OLB | TCU |
16 | 16 | PIT | Grant | Doran | CB | Ohio St. |
17 | 17 | KC | Ogbuehi | Cedric | OT | Texas A&M |
18 | 18 | STL (via HOU%) | Cooper | Amari | WR | Alabama |
19 | 19 | CIN | Edwards | Mario | DE | Florida St. |
20 | 20 | BAL | Waynes | Trae | CB | Michigan St. |
21 | 21 | CAR (via ATL^) | Peat | Andrus | OT | Stanford |
22 | 22 | ARI | Scherff | Brandon | OT | Iowa |
23 | 23 | CHI | Jenkins | Jordan | OLB | Georgia |
24 | 24 | ATL (via CAR^) | Collins | Landon | S | Alabama |
25 | 25 | NO | Perryman | Denzel | ILB | Miami |
26 | 26 | IND | Jackson | Tre | G | Florida St. |
27 | 27 | PHI | Beasley | Vic | 3-4 OLB | Clemson |
28 | 28 | GB | McCarthy | Ellis | DT | UCLA |
29 | 29 | NE | Williams | P.J. | CB | Florida St. |
30 | 30 | SF | Smith | Derron | FS | Fresno St. |
31 | 31 | DEN | Johnson | A.J. | ILB | Tennessee |
32 | 32 | SEA | Kalis | Kyle | G | Michigan |
* - JAX gives 1.1, TEN gives 1.3, 2.3 and more TBD
+ - MIN gives 1.6, MIA gives 1.9, 3.9 and more TBD
% - STL gives 1.11, HOU gives 1.18 and 2.18
^ - ATL gives 1.21, CAR gives 1.24 and 3.24
Round 1 Notes
- I'm comfortable with the top 6. Things got a little crazy after that. The Diggs pick is putting him on track to have a Tavon Austin coming out party.
- The first two trades assume the Titans jump Oakland to ensure they get one of the top two QBs. Miami hops Washington to assure them of a corner.
- Sure, the Houston-St. Louis trade seems wild. I'm much higher on Fajardo than most. I was last year too when I had him going 16th overall. Houston has to hop Detroit and Dallas who are in sellers' positions for a QB here to grab Fajardo. That leaves the Rams to take the fifth WR in the 1st round who still fits a top of the depth chart mold while picking up some draft capital later on because Les Snead is Les Snead.
- My favorite pick of the 1st round? Seattle taking RS sophomore Michigan guard Kyle Kalis to close out day 1. It's got about a 0.001% chance right now and yet it feels like something Seattle wold do right now if they could.
- No running backs because it's 2014 and no.
Round 2
Rd# | Ovr# | Team | Last | First | POS | School |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 33 | JAX | Eskridge | Durell | FS | Syracuse |
2 | 34 | OAK | Johnson | Duke | RB | Miami |
3 | 35 | JAX (via TEN*) | Hawkins | Jerald | RT | LSU |
4 | 36 | BUF | Hogan | Kevin | QB | Stanford |
5 | 37 | NYJ | Yeldon | T.J. | RB | Alabama |
6 | 38 | MIN | Matias | Josue | G | Florida St. |
7 | 39 | WAS | Harris | Anthony | SS | Virginia |
8 | 40 | TB | Davis | Carl | DT | Iowa |
9 | 41 | MIA | Otis | Norkeithus | OLB | UNC |
10 | 42 | CLE | Davis | Mike | RB | South Carolina |
11 | 43 | STL | Joseph | Karl | FS | West Virginia |
12 | 44 | KC (via NYG#) | Robinson | Corey | OT | South Carolina |
13 | 45 | DET | Reed | Cedric | DE | Texas |
14 | 46 | DAL | Covington | Christian | DT | Rice |
15 | 47 | SD | Alexander | Vadal | G | LSU |
16 | 48 | PIT | Funchess | Devin | TE | Michigan |
17 | 49 | NYG (via KC#) | Fackrell | Kyler | OLB | Utah St. |
18 | 50 | STL (via HOU%) | Grasu | Hroniss | C | Oregon |
19 | 51 | CIN | Hundley | Brett | QB | UCLA |
20 | 52 | CHI (via BAL@) | Collins | La'el | LT/OL | LSU |
21 | 53 | ATL | Harold | Eli | OLB | Virginia |
22 | 54 | ARI | Cook | Connor | QB | Michigan St. |
23 | 55 | BAL (via CHI@) | Kouandjio | Arie | G | Alabama |
24 | 56 | CAR | Darby | Ronald | CB | Florida St. |
25 | 57 | NO | Ariguzo | Chi Chi | OLB | Northwestern |
26 | 58 | IND | Gurley | Todd | RB | Georgia |
27 | 59 | PHI | Greenberry | Deontay | WR | Houston |
28 | 60 | GB | Johnstone | Tyler | OT | Oregon |
29 | 61 | NE | Ajayi | Jay | RB | Boise St. |
30 | 62 | SF | Shelton | Danny | DT | Washington |
31 | 63 | DEN | Stanley | Ronnie | OT | Notre Dame |
32 | 64 | SEA | Heuerman | Jeff | TE | Ohio St. |
* - JAX gives 1.1, TEN gives 1.3, 2.3 and more TBD
# - NYG gives 2.12, KC gives 2.17 and more TBD
% - STL gives 1.11, HOU gives 1.18 and 2.18
@ - BAL gives 2.20, CHI gives 2.23 and more TBD
Round 2 Notes
- Jacksonville is set to pack up their tools for their raw power move with two of the first three picks in the second round. While I've got them on track to use them both, I would expect that with a night to shop around, they'd find a way to sell one off.
- Oakland breaks the RB seal...with Duke Johnson. It doesn't make sense now, it won't next year...but it's Oakland so sure.
- That's a bland first half of the round, position-wise but with the skill-heavy first and the way things sit now, I struggled to see it otherwise.
- The Rams opt to go with a ballhawk in Joseph who fits the Rams' dual-safety backend and the top center in Grasu. Headlines? None. But headlines the Rams are coming off of a OT/DT first round. If that can fly...
- Cincy and Arizona with mid-2nd round QB pickups. Somehow, I think those would be less than absolutely positively received among their fan bases...
- Struggled again with Seattle because they're in the midst of their built roster window. They've got decisions galore coming down the pipe on who to retain, but the heat's not on them yet.
Round 3
Rd# | Ovr# | Team | Last | First | POS | School |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 65 | JAX | Bibbs | E.J. | TE | Iowa St. |
2 | 66 | OAK | Parker | DeVante | WR | Louisville |
3 | 67 | TEN | Frost | Kris | ILB | Auburn |
4 | 68 | BUF | Russell | KeiVarae | CB | Notre Dame |
5 | 69 | NYJ | Washington | Tony | OLB | Oregon |
6 | 70 | MIN | Everett | Deshazor | CB | Texas A&M |
7 | 71 | WAS | Havenstein | Rob | OT | Wisconsin |
8 | 72 | TB | Shaw | Josh | CB | USC |
9 | 73 | MIN (via MIA+) | Wilson | Ramik | ILB/LB | Georgia |
10 | 74 | CLE | DePriest | Trey | ILB | Alabama |
11 | 75 | STL | Keeton | Chuckie | QB | Utah St. |
12 | 76 | NYG | Matthews | Mike | C | Texas A&M |
13 | 77 | DET | Humphries | D.J. | OT | Florida |
14 | 78 | DAL | Flowers | Trey | DE | Arkansas |
15 | 79 | SD | Anthony | Stephone | ILB | Clemson |
16 | 80 | PIT | Drango | Spencer | OT | Baylor |
17 | 81 | KC | McGee | Jake | TE | Florida |
18 | 82 | HOU | William | Daryl | OT | Oklahoma |
19 | 83 | CIN | Seumalo | Isaac | C | Oregon St. |
20 | 84 | BAL | Montgomery | Ty | WR | Stanford |
21 | 85 | ATL | Clark | Le'Raven | OT | Texas Tech |
22 | 86 | ARI | Thompson | Shaq | OLB | Washington |
23 | 87 | CHI | Drummond | Kurtis | FS | Michigan St. |
24 | 88 | SEA (via ATL~) | Doss | Lorenzo | CB | Tulane |
25 | 89 | NO | McKinney | Benardrick | ILB | Mississippi St. |
26 | 90 | IND | Bennett | Michael | DT | Ohio St. |
27 | 91 | PHI | Wright | Gabe | DT | Auburn |
28 | 92 | GB | Clark | Frank | DE | Michigan |
29 | 93 | NE | Jarrett | Kyshoen | SS | Virginia Tech |
30 | 94 | SF | Campbell | Ibraheim | SS | Northwestern |
31 | 95 | DEN | Golden | Markus | DE | Missouri |
32 | 96 | ATL (via SEA~) | Oakman | Shawn | DE | Baylor |
+ - MIN gives 1.6, MIA gives 1.9, 3.9 and more TBD
~ - ATL gives 3.24 via earlier trade, SEA gives 3.32 and more TBD
Round 3 Notes
- A defensively-heavy round, ending with an 11-pick run of defensive prospects. This is exactly what will happen.
- Minnesota jump up to grab Ramik Wilson ahead of Cleveland.
- Non-plussed by Garrett Gilbert lurking at the back of the depth chart a la Austin Davis, the Rams finally grab a QB with some potential to push Sam Bradford who would be heading into the final year of his rookie contract at this point in Utah St. funthing Chuckie Keeton.
- One pick later, the Giants add Mike Matthews further adding weight to the 3k Theory of Football Family Convergence that one day, the entire NFL will populated by descendants of Howie Long and Clay Matthews, Sr. Games will be entirely impossible to call, radio broadcasts will be rendered useless and referees will be wholly unable to determine which player committed which penalty amid a sea of Longs and Matthewses. It will be hell. The NFL will hit record numbers.
- Pittsburgh helps out the O-line by grabbing Baylor product Spencer Drango who sounds much more like a Bond villain than a football player.
So there it is, a donation for perpetuity. We'll revisit this in..what, maybe 5 months from now, but until then, here's a first attempt at reading the tea leaves.