St. Louis Rams' Off Season Primer: Free Agency

The beginning of the new league year - March 11 - is fast approaching. That day marks the start of the free agency signing period. The Rams have been quite active in signing free agents under the Fisher/Snead regime. With fewer glaring needs/holes on the roster than in prior years, will the Rams still be looking to sign a player(s) through free agency this year? Or have they reached a point where it's possible to fill their remaining roster needs entirely in the NFL draft?

Rams' Recent Free Agent History

The Rams have achieved moderate success and mixed results with their free agent signings under Jeff Fisher and Les Snead. Finding quality free agents can be just as big a crap shoot as the NFL draft, only far more expensive. How have the Rams' signings graded out in the past two years?

The accompanying chart presents a scale for grading the Rams' free agent signings:

A+	All Pro
A	Excellent
A-	Very Good
B+	Above Average
B	Average
B-	Below Average
C+	Serviceable
C	Minimal Impact
C-	Backup
F	Poor

Assigned grades are determined using the following criteria: production/performance, games played and started, and how much bang the Rams have received for their buck.

Player	Position	2012 Grade	2013 Grade
Scott Wells	Center	B-	B
Cortland Finnegan	Cornerback	B	F
William Hayes	Defensive End	A	A-
Jo-Lonn Dunbar	Linebacker	A-	B
Kendall Langford	Defensive Tackle	B-	B+
Jared Cook	Tight End	N/A	B
Jake Long	Offensive Tackle	N/A	A-

Overall Grade - B

The seven players listed are the Rams' most significant - and expensive - free agent acquisitions in the past two years. I believe the Rams have received the most value from two players - Jo-Lonn Dunbar and William Hayes - who were the cheapest acquisitions on the list.

What impact do the seven players have on the Rams' salary cap for 2014? Their combined salary cap hits represent approximately 1/3 of the projected 2014 NFL salary cap.

The accompanying chart lists the 2014 salary cap hits for the seven free agent acquisitions:

Player	2014 Cap Hit
Cortland Finnegan	10,000,000
Jake Long	9,250,000
Jared Cook	7,000,000
Scott Wells	6,500,000
Kendall Langford	6,000,000
William Hayes	3,845,000
Jo-Lonn Dunbar	Free Agent	1.0 mil. in 2013
Total Cap Hits	42,595,000

Jo-Lonn Dunbar will be eligible for free agency again in March, having just completed a two-year contract with the Rams. Both Scott Wells and Cortland Finnegan could become salary cap casualties, either released or subject to substantial pay decreases. The remaining four players' cap hits will likely be unaltered in 2014. Acquiring free agents can be an expensive proposition, one with no guarantee of a significant return on investment.

2014 Free Agency

Rams' Current Roster

There are 67 players on the Rams' current roster/depth chart:

C	Scott Wells	Tim Barnes	Barrett Jones	Graham Pocic
RG	Harvey Dahl	Brandon Washington
LG	Chris Williams	Shelley Smith
RT	Joe Barksdale	Rodger Saffold
LT	Jake Long	Mike Person	Sean Hooey
TE	Jared Cook	Lance Kendricks	Cory Harkey	Mike McNeill	Justice Cunningham
WR	Tavon Austin	Austin Pettis	Stedman Bailey
WR	Chris Givens	Brian Quick	Justin Veltung	Emory Blake
RB	Zac Stacy	Benny Cunningham	Isaiah Pead	Darryl Richardson	Chase Reynolds
QB	Sam Bradford	Kellen Clemens	Austin Davis	Brady Quinn
PK	Greg Zuerlein
P	John Hekker
LS	Jake McQuaide
DT	Kendall Langford	Jermelle Cudjo
DT	Michael Brockers	Matt Conrath
DE	Chris Long	Eugene Sims	Mason Brodine
DE	Robert Quinn	William Hayes	Sammy Brown
MLB	James Laurinaitis	Daren Bates
OLB	Alec Ogletree	Will Witherspoon	Caleb McSurdy
OLB	Jo-Lonn Dunbar	Ray Ray Armstrong	Phillip Steward
CB	Janoris Jenkins	Brandon McGee	Darren Woodard
CB	Trumaine Johnson	Cortland Finnegan	Quinton Pointer
S	Rodney McLeod	Darian Stewart	Cody Davis
S	T.J. McDonald	Matt Giordano	Matt Daniels

The Salary Cap

At present, the Rams are approximately $4.5 million - including carry forwards - under the projected 2014 NFL salary cap ($130 million). The initial estimate for the 2014 NFL salary cap was an increase of $3.3 million to $126.3 million. As of this morning, that figure has risen to $130 million, according to Adam Schefter:

NFL's salary cap now projected to rise to about $130 million, up 5 percent from $123 million last year, per league sources. More $ for all.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 20, 2014

The additional increase will likely give the Rams more wiggle room. But it's all relative. Each of the 32 teams receives the same increase. More dollars to spend, means greater demand for players, which in turn means higher-value free agent contracts this year.

The Rams have additional financial commitments during the year to consider, as noted in an earlier off season primer article:

"The Rams WILL have to create $10-$11 million in salary cap space - irrespective of free agency signings/re-signings - at some point before the regular season begins. This amount covers the net cost of signing the incoming rookie class, creates an adequate reserve for contingencies during the regular season, pays the practice squad, and provides a cushion for salary cap adjustments - earned incentives, workout bonuses, escalators, etc. - made by the league."

By any measure, the Rams are currently in a relatively tight cap space situation. As noted last Thursday, the Rams - through roster cuts and restructures - can create $15-$20 million in salary cap space virtually overnight, if they so desired (link). It would still leave the Rams in a position where they could only sign 4-5 of their own smaller-contract free agents, plus 1 - possibly 2 - more expensive free agents.

Rams' Free Agents

The accompanying chart lists the 14 Rams players eligible for free agency on March 11:

Player	Position	FA Type
Rodger Saffold	OL	UFA
Jo-Lonn Dunbar	OLB	UFA
Chris Williams	OL	UFA
Darian Stewart	S	UFA
Shelley Smith	OG	UFA
Kellen Clemens	QB	UFA
Matt Giordano	S	UFA
Will Witherspoon	OLB	UFA
Brady Quinn	QB	UFA
Mike McNeill	TE	RFA
Austin Davis	QB	RFA
Tim Barnes	C	ERFA
Quinton Pointer	DB	ERFA
Justin Veltung	WR	ERFA

The Rams could re-sign any of the bottom dozen on the list for six-figure amounts. The most important free agent is Rodger Saffold, who will command a substantial raise over his expiring rookie contract. Saffold likely holds the key to how the Rams' off season will unfold. The Rams could also be interested in re-signing Jo-Lonn Dunbar, especially given his history with DC Gregg Williams. Dunbar would likely command a low seven-figure salary. Losing all four interior offensive linemen on the list could pose serious problems for the Rams in the coming season, especially if Scott Wells and Harvey Dahl become cap casualties.

Free Agency Preview

Most teams - the Rams included - normally use free agency to address specific team needs/holes in the roster. Heading into March, the Rams' biggest needs will likely be the defensive secondary, and the interior offensive line.

Walter Football provides a ranking of all eligible free agents, and publishes all transactions related to free agency (link). Rotoworld also generates an accurate free agent list, with a loose ranking of all eligible free agents (link). These lists are updated on a daily basis.

How will the Rams approach free agency this year?

CBS Sports' John Breech gave his take on what the Rams' game plan will be for free agency:

"The Rams free-agency game plan will most likely involve setting up their draft game plan. St. Louis is snuggled up right up near the projected salary cap and will probably have to drop a few veterans to give themselves some breathing room. That could be bad news for offensive linemen Harvey Dahl and Scott Wells. Cortland Finnegan and his $10 million 2014 cap hit could also be out. If the Rams decide to dump those three, don't be surprised to see the team make a small splash and go after one or two players who could possibly start in the secondary or at linebacker."

ESPN's Nick Wagoner suggests the key for the Rams should be the draft, not free agency (link):

"With so many high-priced players already on the roster, the margin for error in free agency and the draft is minuscule in the league’s best division. If the Rams want to keep up, the time has come to stop spending big money on outside help and start investing in themselves."

Last year, Kevin Demoff participated in the MIT Sloan Sports Analytic's Conference. He shared his thoughts about spending in free agency:

"If you have $8 million to spend in free agency, you might be better off spending $7 million on one guy and $1 million on the other than buying two players at $4 million."

Demoff's words certainly rang true last year, as the Rams added big-money free agents Jake Long and Jared Cook, and limited the remainder of their spending to mostly lower-priced players.

This years free agent market is likely to be very deep at the safety and cornerback positions. Many quality, younger options exist across the spectrum of price-level tiers. Fewer quality, younger options exist at the offensive line positions, although there are a number of them who may be of interest to the Rams.

The accompanying chart lists 20 players who are eligible for free agency, and are intriguing options for the Rams. The list is comprised of 11 defensive backs, 6 offensive linemen, 2 wide receivers, and 1 defensive tackle. All except Anquan Boldin are in their twenties. The players on the list will command a wide range of salaries, from $2 million to $8 million plus per season:

Player	Position	Team
Evan Dietrich-Smith	Center	Green Bay
Alex Mack	Center	Cleveland
Brian De La Puente	Center	New Orleans
Geoff Schwartz	Guard/Tackle	Kansas City
Jon Asamoah	Guard	Kansas City
Austin Howard	Offensive Tackle	NY Jets
Jeremy Maclin	Wide Receiver	Philadelphia
Anquan Boldin	Wide Receiver	San Francisco
Linval Joseph	Defensive Tackle	NY Giants
Sam Shields	Cornerback	Green Bay
Vontae Davis	Cornerback	Indianapolis
Alterraun Verner	Cornerback	Tennessee
E.J. Biggers	Corner/Safety	Washington
Husain Abdullah	Safety	Kansas City
Louis Delmas	Safety	Detroit
Malcolm Jenkins	Safety	New Orleans
Chris Clemons	Safety	Miami
Donte Whitner	Safety	San Francisco
Jairus Byrd	Safety	Buffalo
T.J. Ward	Safety	Cleveland

Last week, I took an in-depth look at some of the players on the list (link). I believe the Rams will target a veteran safety in free agency this year. The safety position is the weakest unit on the team. Although the Rams are likely to address the position in the draft, it would be prudent for the Rams to add a veteran presence. Two safeties stand out as being affordable, better than average, and having a connection to the Rams organization:

Malcolm Jenkins

From last weeks free agency article:

"Jenkins was selected in the 1st round of the 2009 draft. He's 6'0" - 204, and turns 27 in December. Among this years free agent crop at free safety, he's not as highly touted as Ward, Byrd, or Donte Whitner. Jenkins has never quite lived up to the expectations of a 1st round pick, although he has shown flashes at times. His best seasons were during the tenure of Gregg Williams as DC in New Orleans (2009-2011). Under Williams, Jenkins was a 2nd team All-Pro selection in 2010. Although not a huge difference-maker, he's a solid, above average free safety who might again thrive with Williams at the helm. In 2013, Jenkins accounted for 94 combined tackles, 7 passes defended, and 1 interception."

Louis Delmas

Safety Louis Delmas was released by the Detroit Lions last Thursday, in a salary cap-related move. Delmas' release allows him to sign with any team at any time, for he is no longer under contract. Delmas was selected by the Lions in the 2nd round of the 2009 NFL draft, and has been a quality, consistent starter throughout his time in Detroit. Delmas will be 27 in April.

The biggest question any team will have about Delmas is how he checks out medically. He has battled knee problems on and off over the last three seasons. Although his practice time was limited during the 2013 season, he started all 16 games, intercepting 3 passes and recording a pair of sacks. He was named to the NFL All-Rookie Team in 2009, and was a Pro Bowl alternate in 2010 and 2011. Delmas is known as an aggressive, relentless, hard hitting safety, with ball skills.

Before re-signing (for two years) with Detroit in 2013, the Rams negotiated with Delmas, in an attempt to bring him to St. Louis. Contract talks stalled, as Delmas wanted more than the one year "prove it" deal the Rams were offering at the time. The Rams were concerned about his health-related issues.

Early Predictions

• The Rams will re-sign Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Kellen Clemens, Tim Barnes, Mike McNeill, and Chris Williams or Shelley Smith (cheap depth at guard).
• The Rams will make every effort to re-sign Rodger Saffold, but only at a reasonable cost. At present, I put the odds of re-signing Saffold at 60/40 against.
• Scott Wells will be released. Harvey Dahl and Cortland Finnegan will be subject to either substantial pay reductions, or will be released outright.
• If the Rams do venture into the free agent market, expect Malcolm Jenkins and Louis Delmas to be targets. If Rodger Saffold is not re-signed, the Rams may take a look at Jon Asamoah, as a potential replacement at the guard position. Delmas, Jenkins, and Asamoah will likely command contracts averaging $3.25-$4.5 million per season.
• Although he will come with a hefty price tag ($9 million plus per season), the Rams will at least inquire about CB Alterraun Verner, especially if Cortland Finnegan is released. Jeff Fisher drafted him, and he became a 2nd team All-Pro last season under Gregg Williams (who was a senior defensive assistant with the Titans). Williams mentioned Verner in his introductory Rams press conference last week. A signing of this nature would test the Rams' cap resources to the max.
• With fewer roster needs, look for the Rams to be much quieter in the free agent market than in previous years. Certainly quieter than the buzz that never goes away regarding the Rams' commitment to Sam Bradford:

Rams looking forward to the day when team's continued commitment to Sam Bradford isn't perceived as national news @101ESPNFastLane

— Mike Sando, ESPN.com (@SandoESPN) February 18, 2014

Off Season Primer Series

Part 1 - Salary Capping The St. Louis Rams' Off Season (link)

Part 2 - The Offensive Line (link)

Part 3 - Younger In 2014? (link)

Part 4 - 4 By March 11 (link)

Part 5 - Anatomy Of A Trade Down: The Quiet #13 Pick (link)

Part 6 - NFL Free Agency - Rams General Manager For A Day (link)

Part 7 - Will The Rams Draft An Offensive Lineman In The First Round? (link)