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Rams-Redskins: Key Stats Analysis - Week 14

Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be keeping track of four key team statistical measures, and how they affect the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, and Team Penalty Yards Differential. In addition, I'll keep track of the score at half-time. Is there a correlation between these statistics and the Rams' win/loss record?

By Frank "Dubs" Dobozy

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Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams turned in their second-best overall performance of the season (behind last week's win over Oakland) this past weekend, in a convincing 24-0 victory over the Washington Redskins. The Rams' defense and special teams dominated the game, and it shows in this weeks statistical analysis. The Rams achieved resoundingly positive results in almost every statistical category.

Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these 5 particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2014 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

NFL Stats

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 7 wins in 2013. The team had a positive turnover differential in 6 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other victory. Overall, the Rams finished 9'th in Turnover Differential (plus +8) last season. In 2013, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in this key statistic.

In the game against the Redskins, the Rams won the turnover battle, with no giveaways and 2 takeaways, a plus +2 turnover differential. Colt McCoy's 2 interceptions didn't lead to points for the Rams. Nonetheless, it's significant that the Rams have won 3 of their last 4 games, and had zero turnovers in each of those victories.

The Rams are currently tied for 10'th in the league in Turnover Differential (+4). In their last four games, the Rams have turned over the ball only three times, while forcing 12 turnovers in the same four games.

Team Turnover Differential Statistics
Team Takeaways Giveaways Turnover Differential
1 Green Bay Packers 23 8 15
2 Houston Texans 29 17 12
3 New England Patriots 21 11 10
4 Arizona Cardinals 23 13 10
5 Buffalo Bills 28 19 9
6 Seattle Seahawks 20 11 9
7 Cleveland Browns 26 18 8
8 Detroit Lions 22 16 6
9 Atlanta Falcons 24 18 6
10 Miami Dolphins 22 18 4
11 Denver Broncos 19 15 4
12 St. Louis Rams 23 19 4
13 San Francisco 49ers 22 19 3
14 Baltimore Ravens 18 16 2
15 Minnesota Vikings 17 16 1
16 San Diego Chargers 15 15 0
17 Dallas Cowboys 21 22 -1
18 Carolina Panthers 19 20 -1
19 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 18 -2
20 Cincinnati Bengals 17 20 -3
21 Indianapolis Colts 22 26 -4
22 New York Giants 21 26 -5
23 Kansas City Chiefs 10 15 -5
24 Philadelphia Eagles 24 30 -6
25 Chicago Bears 19 25 -6
26 Jacksonville Jaguars 17 25 -8
27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 28 -8
28 Tennessee Titans 16 24 -8
29 New Orleans Saints 13 22 -9
30 Washington Redskins 15 24 -9
31 New York Jets 10 22 -12
32 Oakland Raiders 10 26 -16

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2013, the Rams were the 2'nd most penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game. An excessive number of penalties can stall drives, and can keep opponents' drives alive. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

The Rams were flagged for 11 penalties - totalling 98 yards - in the contest against Washington. The Redskins committed 5 penalties for 51 yards. For the Rams, the result was a negative Team Penalty Yards Differential of 47 yards.

After 13 games, the Rams are tied for 5'th most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.8 penalties per game. The Rams lead the league in most penalty yards (949), and are 31'st in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-295). In an interesting twist, the Rams rank 9'th in the NFL in fewest Opponent Penalty Yards (654).

Team Penalty Yards Differential
Rank Team GP Pen Yds Opp. Pen Yds Pen Yds Diff Pen Yds Diff/Game
1 Arizona Cardinals 13 622 948 326 20.38
2 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 463 714 251 15.69
3 Miami Dolphins 13 506 755 249 15.56
4 Green Bay Packers 12 585 776 191 11.94
5 Kansas City Chiefs 13 512 669 157 9.81
6 Baltimore Ravens 13 689 820 131 8.19
7 Philadelphia Eagles 13 763 889 126 7.88
8 New Orleans Saints 13 605 728 123 7.69
9 New York Giants 13 581 702 121 7.56
10 San Francisco 49ers 13 689 800 111 6.94
11 Minnesota Vikings 13 712 799 87 5.44
12 Chicago Bears 13 788 868 80 5.00
13 Washington Redskins 13 879 954 75 4.69
14 San Diego Chargers 13 797 858 61 3.81
15 Cincinnati Bengals 13 681 726 45 2.81
16 Oakland Raiders 13 743 786 43 2.69
17 Houston Texans 13 644 660 16 1.00
18 Carolina Panthers 13 646 647 1 0.06
19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 857 855 -2 -0.13
20 Indianapolis Colts 13 728 713 -15 -0.94
21 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 750 726 -24 -1.50
22 Dallas Cowboys 13 645 610 -35 -2.19
23 Atlanta Falcons 12 704 609 -95 -5.94
24 Cleveland Browns 13 757 624 -133 -8.31
25 Detroit Lions 13 841 698 -143 -8.94
26 Buffalo Bills 13 857 689 -168 -10.50
27 Tennessee Titans 13 818 640 -178 -11.13
28 New York Jets 13 832 626 -206 -12.88
29 Denver Broncos 13 886 620 -266 -16.63
30 New England Patriots 13 936 659 -277 -17.31
31 St. Louis Rams 13 949 654 -295 -18.44
32 Seattle Seahawks 13 842 485 -357 -22.31

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them.

In the game against Washington, the Rams' offense produced 6 rushing big plays, and 3 passing big plays. The Rams' defense gave up only 1 big play in total, resulting in a plus +8 Big Play Differential for the game. The plus +8 differential was the Rams' best showing of the season in this particular statistical area. The Rams' big plays were highlighted by a 35-yard touchdown pass to Jared Cook in the 2'nd quarter, and a 36-yard completion to Stedman Bailey in the 3'rd quarter, which led to a Rams touchdown.

The Rams currently rank 10'th in the league in Big Play Differential (+8). The teams' NFL ranking has shown significant improvement in the past 7 weeks.

Team Big Plays Statistics
Rank Team Plays Big Plays Rush Pass Big Play % BPA +/-
1 Seattle Seahawks 831 86 68 18 10.35% 36 50
7 Denver Broncos 867 73 42 31 8.42% 38 35
3 Baltimore Ravens 833 78 56 22 9.36% 51 27
10 New York Jets 869 69 52 17 7.94% 50 19
29 Detroit Lions 860 52 26 26 6.05% 34 18
2 Green Bay Packers 733 73 46 27 9.96% 60 13
13 San Francisco 49ers 826 62 39 23 7.51% 49 13
6 Washington Redskins 816 70 41 29 8.58% 59 11
4 Dallas Cowboys 816 72 52 20 8.82% 62 10
9 St. Louis Rams 782 65 40 25 8.31% 57 8
11 Houston Texans 837 65 44 21 7.77% 61 4
5 Indianapolis Colts 919 79 40 39 8.6% 76 3
8 Pittsburgh Steelers 901 75 40 35 8.32% 72 3
19 Miami Dolphins 823 58 43 15 7.05% 56 2
14 Cincinnati Bengals 815 60 40 20 7.36% 59 1
24 Carolina Panthers 858 58 39 19 6.76% 57 1
12 Philadelphia Eagles 920 71 44 27 7.72% 72 -1
15 Cleveland Browns 865 63 37 26 7.28% 64 -1
20 Chicago Bears 825 58 33 25 7.03% 59 -1
23 Arizona Cardinals 798 54 26 28 6.77% 59 -5
30 Buffalo Bills 835 49 24 25 5.87% 56 -7
25 San Diego Chargers 802 52 29 23 6.48% 62 -10
26 New England Patriots 884 56 34 22 6.33% 66 -10
17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 771 55 27 28 7.13% 68 -13
31 Atlanta Falcons 783 41 24 17 5.24% 57 -16
16 New Orleans Saints 898 65 43 22 7.24% 82 -17
27 Minnesota Vikings 796 50 34 16 6.28% 67 -17
22 Jacksonville Jaguars 811 56 34 22 6.91% 74 -18
18 Tennessee Titans 729 52 27 25 7.13% 72 -20
32 Oakland Raiders 789 40 22 18 5.07% 61 -21
21 Kansas City Chiefs 780 54 39 15 6.92% 81 -27
28 New York Giants 884 55 32 23 6.22% 89 -34

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2013. 12 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential. Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials.

In Sunday's game, the Rams had 10 drives in total, and scored 17 points on those drives (1.70 points per drive), a below-average result. The Redskins had 10 drives in total, and scored no points on those drives (0.00 points per drive). This was the Rams' second consecutive shutout of the season, and another excellent performance by the defense. The Rams' Points Per Drive Differential versus the Redskins: Plus +1.70.

After 13 games, the Rams rank 18'th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (- 0.06). The teams' NFL ranking keeps improving on a weekly basis.

Team Points Per Drive Statistics
Team Points Per Drive Points Per Drive Against Point Differential
1 Green Bay Packers 3.02 2.05 0.96
2 New England Patriots 2.71 1.78 0.93
3 Baltimore Ravens 2.52 1.83 0.69
4 Seattle Seahawks 2.27 1.69 0.58
5 Philadelphia Eagles 2.33 1.77 0.56
6 Indianapolis Colts 2.44 1.88 0.55
7 Denver Broncos 2.41 1.85 0.55
8 Kansas City Chiefs 2.09 1.7 0.4
9 Houston Texans 2.05 1.66 0.4
10 Miami Dolphins 2.17 1.81 0.36
11 Detroit Lions 1.8 1.47 0.33
12 Arizona Cardinals 1.88 1.57 0.32
13 Dallas Cowboys 2.4 2.09 0.31
14 Pittsburgh Steelers 2.46 2.18 0.28
15 Buffalo Bills 1.76 1.5 0.26
16 San Diego Chargers 2.09 1.9 0.19
17 Cleveland Browns 1.73 1.63 0.1
18 St. Louis Rams 1.89 1.95 -0.06
19 Minnesota Vikings 1.81 1.89 -0.07
20 Cincinnati Bengals 1.81 1.94 -0.13
21 Atlanta Falcons 2.16 2.28 -0.13
22 New York Giants 1.88 2.06 -0.19
23 San Francisco 49ers 1.66 1.85 -0.19
24 New Orleans Saints 2.4 2.6 -0.21
25 Carolina Panthers 1.82 2.34 -0.52
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.59 2.27 -0.68
27 Chicago Bears 1.9 2.63 -0.73
28 Washington Redskins 1.55 2.35 -0.8
29 New York Jets 1.42 2.37 -0.96
30 Oakland Raiders 1.29 2.26 -0.97
31 Tennessee Titans 1.43 2.4 -0.97
32 Jacksonville Jaguars 1.24 2.27 -1.03

Score At Half-Time

In 2013, the Rams finished with a 7-9 record. In all 7 victories, the Rams were either tied or leading at half-time. In the Rams' wins against Tampa Bay, Seattle, Oakland, and Denver this season, they were leading at the half in all four contests. In the win against San Francisco, the Rams were tied 10-10 at half-time.

In the game against Washington, the Rams went into the locker room at half-time with a 6-0 lead. The Rams went on to win the game 24-0. In 10 out of 13 games this season, the Rams either led or were tied at half-time.

All statistical charts are courtesy of Sporting Charts.

Weekly Summary

Week Turnover Diff. Big Play Diff. PPD Diff. PY Diff. Half-Time Game Score
1 Negative Negative Negative Negative 0  13 Lost 34-6
2 Even Negative Positive Negative 10  7 Won 19-17
3 Negative Negative Negative Negative 21  10 Lost 34-31
4 - - - - - Bye Week
5 Even Positive Positive Negative 7  20 Lost 34-28
6 Even Negative Negative Negative 14  10 Lost 31-17
7 Even Negative Negative Positive 21  6 Won 28-26
8 Even Negative Negative Negative 7  10 Lost 34-7
9 Even Negative Positive Negative 10  10 Won 13-10
10 Negative Positive Negative Negative 14  10 Lost 31-14
11 Positive Positive Positive Positive 13  7 Won 22-7
12 Even Negative Negative Negative 10  6 Lost 27-24
13 Positive Positive Positive Positive 38  0 Won 52-0
14 Positive Positive Positive Negative 6  0 Won 24-0

Look at all the positive results in the three wins between Week 11 and Week 14. Then look at the negative results in the game against San Diego. Therein lies the difference between winning and losing football games.

Points per Drive Differential: 6 games positive - Record 5-1. 7 games negative - Record 1-6.

Turnover Differential: 3 games positive - Record 3-0. 3 games negative - Record 0-3. 7 games even - Record 3-4.

Big Play Differential: 5 games positive - Record 3-2. 8 games negative - Record 3-5.

Penalty Yards Differential: 3 games positive - Record 3-0. 10 games negative - Record 3-7.

Pro Football Focus Grades

As an added feature, OakCityRam is generously contributing his weekly compilation of Pro Football Focus grades for each Rams player. Although PFF grades have their shortcomings and are quite subjective, they do offer a unique perspective. The grades can be a valuable tool for analyzing individual player performance, especially when used in conjunction with other statistics. PFF provides - on their website - a detailed description of how players are graded.

NFL OFFENSE Play Counts Ratings
RANK Pos. # Name Total Run Pass Run Block Pass Block Overall Pass Rush Pass Block Screen Block Run Block Penalty
8/130 TE-R 89 Jared Cook 32 0 19 12 1 2.4 1.4 0 0.1 0 0.8 0.1
78/142 HB 36 Benny Cunningham 20 3 14 2 1 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0 0 0
15/210 RWR 12 Stedman Bailey 38 0 24 14 0 1.6 0.5 0 0 1 0 0.1
133/210 LWR 11 Tavon Austin * 44 5 24 15 0 1.4 0.5 0.8 0 0 0 0.1
Not Rated HB 30 Zac Stacy 1 0 0 0 1 0.1 0 0 0.1 0 0 0
105/130 TE-R 88 Lance Kendricks * 48 0 15 30 3 0 0 0 0.2 0 -0.3 0.1
179/210 LWR 13 Chris Givens 5 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
41/136 LG 73 Mike Person 4 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
34/68 C 61 Tim Barnes 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
127/210 RWR 81 Kenny Britt * 55 0 29 26 0 -0.6 0.3 0 0 0 0 -0.9
81/136 LG 76 Rodger Saffold * 60 0 0 29 31 -0.7 0.3 0 -1.2 0.2
122/136 RG 69 Davin Joseph * 64 0 0 33 31 -1.6 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 0.2
62/130 TE-L 46 Cory Harkey * 33 0 6 26 1 -1.9 -0.2 0 0.6 0 -0.4 -1.9
23/133 RT 72 Joe Barksdale * 64 0 0 33 31 -2 -2.6 0 0.4 0.2
51/70 QB 14 Shaun Hill * 64 1 31 32 0 -2 -1.5 -0.1 0 0 0 -0.4
56/136 LT 79 Greg Robinson * 64 0 0 33 31 -2.5 -0.1 0 -1.6 -0.8
126/142 HB 27 Tre Mason * 43 21 13 7 2 -2.8 -0.3 -0.6 -1.9 0 0 0
66/68 C 63 Scott Wells * 64 0 0 33 31 -3.2 -3.3 0 1 -0.9

NFL DEFENSE Play Counts Ratings
RANK Pos. # Name Total Run Rush Cov. Overall Run Defense Pass Rush Pass Cov. Penalty
11/54 DRE 94 Robert Quinn * 49 9 40 0 3.2 1.8 2.2 0 -0.8
13/54 DLE 95 William Hayes 21 5 16 0 2.2 0.9 1.2 0 0.1
48/216 FS 23 Rodney McLeod * 58 13 7 38 1.8 0.6 -0.5 1.6 0.1
1/119 DRT 99 Aaron Donald * 43 10 33 0 1.6 1.7 -0.2 0 0.1
109/121 MLB 55 James Laurinaitis * 51 12 15 24 1.6 0.7 -0.2 1 0.1
35/54 DRE 97 Eugene Sims 15 4 11 0 1.6 0.9 0.6 0 0.1
37/216 LCB 22 Trumaine Johnson 44 6 0 38 1.5 0 0 1.4 0.1
26/169 SS 26 Mark Barron 14 4 3 7 1.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 0
21/169 SS 25 T.J. McDonald * 58 13 1 44 1.3 0.6 -0.1 0.7 0.1
106/216 RCB 21 Janoris Jenkins * 58 13 0 45 0.3 0.1 0 0.1 0.1
66/90 DLE 91 Chris Long * 31 8 23 0 0 1.3 -1.4 0 0.1
87/90 SLB 58 JoLonn Dunbar * 15 5 3 7 0 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0
27/216 LCB 33 E.J. Gaines * 58 13 4 41 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0 0.1
82/90 WLB 52 Alec Ogletree * 58 13 14 31 -0.3 0.2 0.8 -1.4 0.1
83/119 DLT 90 Michael Brockers * 38 9 29 0 -1.2 0.2 -1.5 0 0.1
38/119 DRT 98 Kendall Langford 27 6 21 0 -1.7 -0.7 -1.1 0 0.1

NFL SPECIAL TEAMS Ratings
RANK Pos. # Name Overall Kickoffs Punts FG/EP Penalty
1/35 P 6 Johnny Hekker 2.8 0 2.8 0 0
759/1112 ST 11 Tavon Austin 1.7 0 2.7 0 -1
1077/1112 ST 53 Daren Bates 1 0.5 0.5 0 0
178/1112 ST 52 Alec Ogletree 1 0 1 0 0
265/1112 ST 31 Maurice Alexander 0.5 0.5 0 0 0
759/1112 ST 21 Janoris Jenkins 0.5 0 0.5 0 0
122/1112 ST 23 Rodney McLeod 0.5 0.5 0 0 0
38/1112 ST 42 Trey Watts 0.5 0 0.5 0 0
759/1112 ST 36 Benny Cunningham 0.4 0.4 0 0 0
122/1112 ST 22 Trumaine Johnson 0 0 0 0 0
265/1112 ST 54 Will Herring -0.5 -0.5 0 0 0
122/1112 ST 34 Chase Reynolds -0.5 0.5 0 0 -1
16/53 K 4 Greg Zuerlein -2.4 0.4 0 -2.8 0

Aaron Donald continues his push for Defensive Rookie Of The Year honors. Donald is graded as the Number One defensive tackle in the entire NFL.

This weeks grades reflect the dominant performance of the Rams' defense as a whole. The grades also reflect exemplary special teams play. Tavon Austin and John Hekker both had great games, and head the list of outstanding performances by the Rams' special teams units. Two missed field goals and a missed extra point left K Greg Zuerlein with a poor grade for the game.

John Hekker is sure proving to be worthy of the big extension he signed last week with the Rams. Hekker is the highest-graded punter in the NFL.

Trey Watts is quietly having a fine season on the Rams' special teams units. He's the Rams' 2nd highest-graded special teams player (behind John Hekker).

Robert Quinn achieved the highest grade of any Rams player in the game against Washington.

Also worth checking out: Rams Stats and Records - The Stats Doctor: 101 Sports

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