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Dubs' Pigskin Picks & Rams Post-Game - Week 15

The Rams lost a hard-fought battle against the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. The loss officially eliminates the Rams from the playoff race. In another race, can Dubs catch the leader in the weekly picks contest, with three weeks left in the season?

Week 14 is now in the history books. Week 15 came quickly for the Rams, in a Thursday night matchup against the division-leading Arizona Cardinals. In a close, hard-fought defensive struggle, the Rams lost to the Cardinals 12-6, officially eliminating St. Louis from the playoff race. In another close battle yet to be decided, I'll be looking to make a move on the leader in the weekly Pigskin Picks contest.

This season has produced many surprises, but none more unexpected than the rise and fall of teams in the NFC. Last year, the SaintsSeahawks49ers, and Panthers had a combined record of 48-16. This season, they're a combined 25-26-1. In contrast, the LionsCowboys, and Cardinals were a combined 25-23 in 2013. In 2014, they're sporting a combined 29-11 record. Such is the ebb and flow of the NFL from season-to-season.

Week 14 Results

Week Wins Straight Up Wins vs Spread Hot Picks vs. Spread Rams Straight Up
Last Week 11  5 7  9 1  2 1  0
Season 146  61  1 117  90  1 21  20  1 7  6
Win Percentage 70.5 56.5 51.2 53.8

Pickwatch is a site devoted to tracking weekly picks results from NFL experts, analysts, and media types. This year, they're tracking 129 experts on a weekly basis. I'm competing against them again this season, and will publish the weekly results!

How did I fare against the experts in Week 14? There were many close games last weekend, and a number of upsets. My 11-5 record was good enough to move into 2'nd place in the overall standings, only 1 win behind the leader, CBS Sports' Jamey Eisenberg. There's plenty of time left in the season to overtake the leader. In 2013, it took me until Week 15 to catch - and surpass - the leaders. TST's own Ryan Van Bibber stands in a tie for 107'th overall, with a record of 126-81 on the season.

How did I make out with my "Hot Picks Against The Spread" last week? Oakland pulled off the huge upset, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 24-13. Houston won easily and covered the spread against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In a shootout, the Green Bay Packers defeated the Atlanta Falcons, but fell short of covering the spread. Record for the week: 1-2.

2014 NFL Team Records

NFL ATS RANKINGS
Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under
Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away
Arizona Cardinals 10-3-0 7-0-0 3-3-0 9-4-0 6-1-0 3-3-0 4-8-1 2-5-0 2-3-1
Atlanta Falcons 5-8-0 3-3-0 2-5-0 6-7-0 4-2-0 2-5-0 6-7-0 4-2-0 2-5-0
Baltimore Ravens 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 7-5-1 4-2-0 3-3-1 7-6-0 2-4-0 5-2-0
Buffalo Bills 7-6-0 4-3-0 3-3-0 7-6-0 3-4-0 4-2-0 2-11-0 1-6-0 1-5-0
Carolina Panthers 4-8-1 2-4-0 2-4-1 7-6-0 4-2-0 3-4-0 8-5-0 2-4-0 6-1-0
Chicago Bears 5-8-0 2-4-0 3-4-0 5-8-0 2-4-0 3-4-0 8-5-0 2-4-0 6-1-0
Cincinnati Bengals 8-4-1 4-2-1 4-2-0 6-6-1 3-3-1 3-3-0 5-8-0 4-3-0 1-5-0
Cleveland Browns 7-6-0 4-3-0 3-3-0 7-4-2 4-2-1 3-2-1 5-8-0 2-5-0 3-3-0
Dallas Cowboys 9-4-0 3-4-0 6-0-0 7-6-0 2-5-0 5-1-0 7-5-1 2-4-1 5-1-0
Denver Broncos 10-3-0 7-0-0 3-3-0 6-7-0 3-4-0 3-3-0 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0
Detroit Lions 9-4-0 6-1-0 3-3-0 7-6-0 5-2-0 2-4-0 4-9-0 4-3-0 0-6-0
Green Bay Packers 10-3-0 7-0-0 3-3-0 7-5-1 5-1-1 2-4-0 10-3-0 6-1-0 4-2-0
Houston Texans 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 8-5-0 3-3-0 5-2-0 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0
Indianapolis Colts 9-4-0 5-2-0 4-2-0 9-4-0 5-2-0 4-2-0 9-4-0 4-3-0 5-1-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-11-0 2-5-0 0-6-0 3-9-1 2-5-0 1-4-1 7-6-0 3-4-0 4-2-0
Kansas City Chiefs 7-6-0 4-2-0 3-4-0 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 4-9-0 2-4-0 2-5-0
Miami Dolphins 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 5-8-0 3-3-0 2-5-0
Minnesota Vikings 6-7-0 4-3-0 2-4-0 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0 5-8-0 4-3-0 1-5-0
New England Patriots 10-3-0 6-0-0 4-3-0 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0
New Orleans Saints 5-8-0 3-4-0 2-4-0 5-8-0 2-5-0 3-3-0 10-3-0 5-2-0 5-1-0
New York Giants 4-9-0 2-4-0 2-5-0 5-8-0 3-3-0 2-5-0 8-5-0 3-3-0 5-2-0
New York Jets 2-11-0 2-5-0 0-6-0 3-9-1 2-5-0 1-4-1 6-7-0 3-4-0 3-3-0
Oakland Raiders 2-11-0 2-5-0 0-6-0 7-6-0 3-4-0 4-2-0 7-6-0 5-2-0 2-4-0
Philadelphia Eagles 9-4-0 6-1-0 3-3-0 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 9-4-0 6-0-0 3-4-0
San Diego Chargers 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0 6-7-0 3-4-0 3-3-0 6-7-0 3-4-0 3-3-0
San Francisco 49ers 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 6-7-0 2-4-0 4-3-0 4-9-0 1-5-0 3-4-0
Seattle Seahawks 9-4-0 5-1-0 4-3-0 7-6-0 4-2-0 3-4-0 7-6-0 4-2-0 3-4-0
St. Louis Rams 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 7-6-0 4-2-0 3-4-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-11-0 0-6-0 2-5-0 5-8-0 1-5-0 4-3-0 5-8-0 1-5-0 4-3-0
Tennessee Titans 2-11-0 1-5-0 1-6-0 3-9-1 1-4-1 2-5-0 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0
Washington Redskins 3-10-0 2-4-0 1-6-0 4-9-0 1-5-0 3-4-0 6-7-0 2-4-0 4-3-0

NFL Crystal Ball

Dubs' Pigskin Picks - Week 15

Home Away Spread Straight Up Vs. Spread Score
St. Louis Arizona StL 6 St. Louis Arizona 20  16
Atlanta Pittsburgh Pit 1 Atlanta Atlanta 23  20
Buffalo Green Bay GB 4 1/2 Green Bay Green Bay 29  17
Cleveland Cincinnati Even Cincinnati Cincinnati 26  23
Indianapolis Houston Ind 7 1/2 Indianapolis Houston 27  20
Kansas City Oakland KC 11 1/2 Kansas City Oakland 24  14
New England Miami NE 9 New England New England 27  17
NY Giants Washington NY 7 1/2 NY Giants NY Giants 27  17
Carolina Tampa Bay Car 5 1/2 Carolina Tampa Bay 23  20
Baltimore Jacksonville Bal 15 1/2 Baltimore Jacksonville 29  17
Tennessee NY Jets NY 2 1/2 NY Jets NY Jets 20  17
San Diego Denver Den 4 Denver Denver 30  24
Detroit Minnesota Det 8 1/2 Detroit Minnesota 27  20
Seattle San Francisco Sea 10 1/2 Seattle Seattle 27  16
Philadelphia Dallas Phi 3 Philadelphia Philadelphia 24  20
Chicago New Orleans NO 3 New Orleans New Orleans 30  24

Hot Picks Against The Spread

Denver over San Diego - Since their Week 11 loss to the Rams, the Broncos have rung off three straight wins. Denver is in a battle with the Patriots for the Number 1 overall seed in the AFC, and can't afford a loss at this stage of the season.

Green Bay over Buffalo - The Packers are fighting for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They've won their last five games, on the backs of an offense led by Aaron Rodgers, who's having a season for the ages.

Seattle over San Francisco - These two teams are heading in opposite directions. The Seahawks have won their last 3 games, and once again look like Super Bowl contenders. The 49ers are in the midst of a meltdown, losing their last two games, including an embarrassing loss to the Oakland Raiders last week. The Seahawks defeated the 49ers 19-3 just two weeks ago in San Francisco.

Check out The Sports Geek for NFL picks, betting odds, tips, and strategies. The site is loaded with information related to sports betting.

Arizona Cardinals 12 - St. Louis Rams 6

In Turf Show Times' weekly staff predictions, I shared the following thoughts and prediction for the game between the Cardinals and Rams:

The Rams lost 31-17 the last time these two teams met in Week 10. A lot has changed in the interim. The Cardinal's offense has been struggling since the season-ending injury to QB Carson Palmer. Arizona is 2-2 in their last four games. Conversely, the Rams are on fire, and have won three of their last four games. The defense has been a dominant force, allowing only 34 points combined in the Rams' last four games. The over/under for this game is 39.5 points. I'm going with the under, and the Rams defense coming through with another dominant performance for the win.

Prediction:  Rams 20, Cardinals 16

The Rams were 6 point favorites heading into the game. Although I picked the Rams to win the game, the spread was too high for my liking. I figured on a tight, relatively low-scoring affair, with a few key plays deciding the outcome.

In a close game, turnovers, big plays, and penalties can ultimately decide the outcome. They turned out to be keys in the Rams' loss to the Cardinals. Tre Mason's fumble in the first quarter, deep in Rams territory, led to a game-tying Arizona field goal. Michael Floyd's 49-yard reception in the second quarter led to a field goal, and a 6-3 Cardinals lead. A 36-yard pass interference call against Janoris Jenkins in the third quarter led to yet another Cardinals field goal, and a 9-3 lead. The Rams are 4-0 this season in games without a turnover/giveaway, and are 0-4 in games where they've had a negative turnover differential.

The less-than-stellar play of both QB Shaun Hill and the offensive line loomed large in the loss to the Cardinals. Scoring three points in an NFL game - no matter how well your defense is playing - virtually guarantees a loss. Upgrading the offensive line (particularly the center and guard positions), and quarterback position (a quality backup plus an early round draft prospect behind Sam Bradford) will be right at the top of the Rams' shopping list in the off-season.

On a positive note, the Rams' defense continues to shine, and will be a top-five unit next season. In the last five games combined, the defense has allowed only 46 points on the scoreboard.