Rams-Chargers: Key Stats Analysis - Week 12

There's a bit of Jekyll and Hyde inherent in the Rams' performances from week to week. For all of their promise, the team just can't put together two clean, mistake-free games in a row. Turnovers and penalties have hurt the Rams all season, and ultimately doomed them in the game against the San Diego Chargers.

Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these 5 particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2014 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 7 wins in 2013. The team had a positive turnover differential in 6 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other victory. Overall, the Rams finished 9'th in Turnover Differential (plus +8) last season. In 2013, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in this key statistic.

Turnovers played a critical role in the Rams' loss to the Chargers. Each team committed 3 turnovers, a zero Turnover Differential for the Rams. Unfortunately for the Rams, each of their turnovers was game-changing. The first Rams turnover - an interception by QB Shaun Hill early in the first quarter - led to a Chargers field goal and a 3-0 lead. A Shaun Hill fumble - at 9:38 of the third quarter, deep in Rams territory - was recovered and returned for a touchdown, giving the Chargers a 20-10 lead. With just over a minute to go in the fourth quarter - and the Rams at the San Diego 4-yard line - Hill threw an interception, with the Rams only down 27-24. The interception allowed the Chargers to sneak away with the victory.

The Rams currently are tied for 22'nd in the league in Turnover Differential (-3).

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2013, the Rams were the 2'nd most penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game. An excessive number of penalties can stall drives, and can keep opponents' drives alive. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

In a sloppy game, the Rams were flagged for 9 penalties - totalling 90 yards - in the contest against San Diego. The Chargers committed 8 penalties for 85 yards. For the Rams, the result was a negative Team Penalty Yards Differential of 5 yards.

Jeff Fisher wasn't pleased with the officiating in Sunday's game:

"Unfortunately, it seems like every week is an adventure with the officiating."

Jim Thomas describes the effect of penalties on Sunday's outcome:

"The Rams had two touchdowns called back by penalties, had a 76-yard punt return by Tavon Austin cut in half by another flag, and also had a 23-yard catch by Stedman Bailey and a 16-yard run by Tre Mason nullified by infractions."

"Put them all together, and it adds up to 132 lost yards — 94 yards of offense and 38 yards of Austin’s punt return. And that’s not counting the actual penalty yards themselves marked off."

As ESPN's Nick Wagoner noted, penalties and miscues once again played an important role in a Rams loss:

"The Rams had a few golden opportunities to jump to a sizable lead in the first half but lost those chances with either penalties or some other mental miscue. The worst was a 49-yard touchdown pass to Kenny Britt that was wiped out by a hands to the face call againstGreg Robinson (the call was actually against Joe Barksdale but was announced as Robinson). That would have made it 17-7 Rams. That came after the Rams failed to block for a 46-yard field goal attempt by Greg Zuerlein. San Diego safety Darrell Stuckey got credit for the blocked kick, keeping it a one-possession game. That missed chance was the difference in the game."

After 11 games, the Rams are tied for 7'th most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.5 penalties per game. The Rams are 3'rd in the league in most penalty yards (791), and are 30'th in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-261). In an interesting twist, the Rams rank 5'th in the NFL in fewest Opponent Penalty Yards (530). Overall, the officials still aren't too keen on penalizing the Rams' opponents.

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them.

In the game against San Diego, the Rams' offense produced 3 rushing big plays, and 2 passing big plays. The Rams' defense gave up 7 big plays in total, resulting in a minus -2 Big Play Differential for the game. The Rams gave up a pair of big plays that were critical to the result of the game. With 10 minutes left in the third quarter, Ryan Matthews ran up the middle for a 32-yard touchdown, giving the Chargers a 13-10 lead. At the 8:21 mark of the fourth quarter, Keenan Allen caught a 29-yard touchdown pass from Phillip Rivers, giving the Chargers a 27-17 lead.

The Rams currently rank tied for 21'st in the league in Big Play Differential (-6).

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
1	Seattle Seahawks	686	72	57	15	10.5%	33	39
8	Denver Broncos	738	59	30	29	7.99%	33	26
4	Washington Redskins	687	63	38	25	9.17%	42	21
9	San Francisco 49ers	719	57	34	23	7.93%	37	20
3	Dallas Cowboys	696	65	47	18	9.34%	50	15
5	Baltimore Ravens	648	55	38	17	8.49%	40	15
29	Detroit Lions	721	43	21	22	5.96%	30	13
18	New York Jets	674	47	36	11	6.97%	37	10
22	Miami Dolphins	713	49	37	12	6.87%	39	10
2	Green Bay Packers	663	62	41	21	9.35%	54	8
10	Chicago Bears	705	54	32	22	7.66%	49	5
15	Cincinnati Bengals	698	50	33	17	7.16%	48	2
11	Cleveland Browns	736	56	32	24	7.61%	55	1
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	749	61	32	29	8.14%	61	0
6	Indianapolis Colts	794	65	35	30	8.19%	67	-2
28	Buffalo Bills	634	38	19	19	5.99%	40	-2
12	Philadelphia Eagles	800	60	36	24	7.5%	63	-3
19	Houston Texans	705	49	35	14	6.95%	52	-3
24	Arizona Cardinals	683	45	22	23	6.59%	49	-4
27	New England Patriots	757	46	28	18	6.08%	51	-5
14	St. Louis Rams	677	49	30	19	7.24%	55	-6
25	Minnesota Vikings	690	45	33	12	6.52%	51	-6
20	New Orleans Saints	706	49	34	15	6.94%	57	-8
23	San Diego Chargers	683	46	25	21	6.73%	54	-8
13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	657	49	25	24	7.46%	59	-10
30	Carolina Panthers	713	41	25	16	5.75%	51	-10
17	Tennessee Titans	616	43	24	19	6.98%	58	-15
31	Oakland Raiders	654	34	18	16	5.2%	50	-16
21	Jacksonville Jaguars	681	47	28	19	6.9%	64	-17
16	Kansas City Chiefs	675	48	36	12	7.11%	66	-18
32	Atlanta Falcons	707	36	22	14	5.09%	55	-19
26	New York Giants	738	47	27	20	6.37%	80	-33

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2013. 12 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential. Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials.

In Sunday's game, the Rams had 12 drives in total, and scored 17 points on those drives (1.42 points per drive), a poor showing by the offense. The Chargers had 11 drives in total, and scored 20 points on those drives (1.82 points per drive), a mediocre result for the Rams' defense. The Rams' Points Per Drive Differential versus the Chargers: Minus -0.40.

Red-zone ineffectiveness on offense continues to plague the Rams. Once inside an opponents 20-yard line, the Rams are scoring touchdowns only 51.72% of the time (20'th in the NFL).

After 11 games, the Rams rank 28'th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (- 0.71).

	Team	Points Per Drive	Points Per Drive Against	Point Differential
1	New England Patriots	2.83	1.76	1.07
2	Green Bay Packers	3.03	2.03	0.99
3	Baltimore Ravens	2.33	1.65	0.68
4	Kansas City Chiefs	2.25	1.65	0.6
5	Philadelphia Eagles	2.39	1.83	0.56
6	Miami Dolphins	2.3	1.77	0.53
7	Indianapolis Colts	2.43	1.91	0.52
8	Denver Broncos	2.44	1.93	0.52
9	Seattle Seahawks	2.34	1.86	0.48
10	Dallas Cowboys	2.41	1.98	0.43
11	Arizona Cardinals	1.92	1.51	0.41
12	San Diego Chargers	2.06	1.79	0.27
13	Cleveland Browns	1.85	1.61	0.24
14	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.38	2.17	0.21
15	Houston Texans	1.88	1.69	0.19
16	Detroit Lions	1.59	1.5	0.09
17	New Orleans Saints	2.46	2.42	0.04
18	San Francisco 49ers	1.81	1.8	0.01
19	Cincinnati Bengals	1.91	1.9	0
20	Buffalo Bills	1.59	1.65	-0.06
21	Atlanta Falcons	2.13	2.32	-0.19
22	Minnesota Vikings	1.62	1.95	-0.34
23	New York Giants	1.79	2.21	-0.42
24	Washington Redskins	1.63	2.2	-0.57
25	Chicago Bears	1.89	2.46	-0.58
26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.67	2.33	-0.66
27	Carolina Panthers	1.73	2.4	-0.67
28	St. Louis Rams	1.65	2.36	-0.71
29	Tennessee Titans	1.49	2.25	-0.77
30	New York Jets	1.49	2.3	-0.82
31	Oakland Raiders	1.35	2.19	-0.84
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.17	2.29	-1.13

Score At Half-Time

In 2013, the Rams finished with a 7-9 record. In all 7 victories, the Rams were either tied or leading at half-time. In the Rams' wins against Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Denver this season, they were leading at the half in all three contests. In the win against San Francisco, the Rams were tied 10-10 at half-time.

In the game against San Diego, the Rams went into the locker room with a 10-6 lead at the half. The Rams could not hold on in the second half, losing to the Chargers 27-24. The game against the Chargers marked the fourth time this season the Rams were leading at half-time and still lost the contest.

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  13	Lost 34-6
2	Even	Negative	Positive	Negative	10  7	Won 19-17
3	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	21  10	Lost 34-31
4	-	-	-	-	-	Bye Week
5	Even	Positive	Positive	Negative	7  20	Lost 34-28
6	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	14  10	Lost 31-17
7	Even	Negative	Negative	Positive	21  6	Won 28-26
8	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	7  10	Lost 34-7
9	Even	Negative	Positive	Negative	10  10	Won 13-10
10	Negative	Positive	Negative	Negative	14  10	Lost 31-14
11	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	13  7	Won 22-7
12	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	10  6	Lost 27-24

Look at all the positive results from the Denver game. Then look at the negative results from the San Diego game. Invariably, it's the difference between winning and losing football games.

Pro Football Focus Grades

As an added feature, OakCityRam is generously contributing his weekly compilation of Pro Football Focus grades for each Rams player. Although PFF grades have their shortcomings and are quite subjective, they do offer a unique perspective. The grades can be a valuable tool for analyzing individual player performance, especially when used in conjunction with other statistics. PFF provides - on their website - a detailed description of how players are graded.

NFL	OFFENSE			Play Counts					Ratings
RANK	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Pass	Run Block	Pass Block	Overall	Pass	Rush	Pass Block	Screen Block	Run Block	Penalty
34/79	RG	69	Davin Joseph *	66	0	0	26	40	4.6			1.6	0	2.8	0.2
23/112	LWR	12	Stedman Bailey	44	0	36	8	0	3.7	2.1	0	1.5	0	0	0.1
16/79	RT	72	Joe Barksdale *	66	0	0	26	40	1.5			1.4	0	0.8	-0.7
53/112	LWR	81	Kenny Britt *	62	0	37	25	0	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0.1
Not Rated	RT	73	Mike Person	2	0	0	2	0	0			0	0	0	0
Not Rated	TE-R	82	Alex Bayer	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22/58	HB	30	Zac Stacy	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40/42	C	63	Scott Wells *	66	0	0	26	40	-0.1			0.5	0	-0.7	0.1
35/58	HB	27	Tre Mason *	35	16	11	5	3	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0.2	0	0	0
30/58	HB	36	Benny Cunningham	29	4	12	1	12	-0.2	0.3	-0.8	0.3	0	0	0
Not Rated	QB	14	Shaun Hill *	66	0	40	26	0	-0.3	-0.4	0	0	0	0	0.1
Not Rated	RWR	13	Chris Givens	15	0	9	6	0	-0.4	-0.4	0	0	0	0	0
43/79	LT	76	Rodger Saffold *	66	0	0	26	40	-1			0.4	0	-1.7	0.3
88/112	RWR	11	Tavon Austin *	51	3	31	17	0	-1.3	-0.7	0.3	0	0	-1	0.1
50/66	TE-L	88	Lance Kendricks *	36	0	11	21	4	-1.5	-0.8	0	0.2	0	-1	0.1
22/22	FB	46	Cory Harkey	14	0	1	11	2	-1.5	0	0	0.1	0	-1.6	0
12/66	TE-R	89	Jared Cook *	39	0	27	11	1	-2	-0.9	0	0.1	0	-0.3	-0.9
70/79	LT	79	Greg Robinson *	66	0	0	26	40	-6			-4.1	0	-0.2	-1.7

NFL	DEFENSE			Play Counts				Ratings
RANK	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Rush	Cov.	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Rush	Pass Cov.	Penalty
2/78	DLT	99	Aaron Donald *	50	20	28	2	3.6	1.9	0.5	1	0.2
10/55	DRE	94	Robert Quinn *	48	18	30	0	1.9	-0.8	2.5	0	0.2
51/112	LCB	22	Trumaine Johnson *	58	21	1	36	1	0.1	-0.1	0.9	0.1
Not Rated	SS	26	Mark Barron	13	2	7	4	0.6	0	0.5	0.1	0
87/112	RCB	21	Janoris Jenkins *	65	26	0	39	0.2	-1.4	0	2.5	-0.9
35/36	SLB	58	JoLonn Dunbar	4	3	0	1	0.1	0.1	0	0	0
38/83	FS	23	Rodney McLeod *	65	26	0	39	0	-0.7	0	0.6	0.1
Not Rated	DRE	93	Ethan Westbrooks	17	8	9	0	-0.3	0.3	-0.7	0	0.1
15/55	DLE	95	William Hayes *	35	15	20	0	-0.4	-0.3	-0.7	0.5	0.1
36/78	DRT	98	Kendall Langford	26	13	13	0	-0.5	0.6	-0.7	-0.5	0.1
43/83	SS	25	T.J. McDonald *	65	26	1	38	-1.1	-1.2	-0.1	0.1	0.1
61/78	DRT	90	Michael Brockers *	44	19	25	0	-1.3	-0.6	-0.8	0	0.1
42/55	DLE	97	Eugene Sims	30	11	19	0	-1.7	0.8	-1.6	-1	0.1
52/61	MLB	55	James Laurinaitis *	65	26	6	33	-2.2	-0.5	-0.5	-1.3	0.1
36/112	SCB	33	E.J. Gaines *	65	26	3	36	-3.2	-0.4	-0.3	-2.6	0.1
33/36	WLB	52	Alec Ogletree *	65	26	9	30	-4.5	0	-0.7	-3.9	0.1

NFL	SPECIAL TEAMS			Ratings
RANK	Pos.	#	Name	Overall	Kickoffs	Punts	FG/EP	Penalty
370/1046	ST	11	Tavon Austin	1.8	0	1.8	0	0
3/34	P	6	Johnny Hekker	1.3	0	1.3	0	0
56/1046	ST	34	Chase Reynolds	1	0.5	0.5	0	0
104/1046	ST	26	Mark Barron	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
370/1046	ST	82	Alex Bayer	0.5	0	0.5	0	0
16/49	K	4	Greg Zuerlein	0.4	0.6	0	-0.2	0
370/1046	LS	44	Jake McQuaide	0	0	0	0	0
370/1046	ST	79	Greg Robinson	0	0	0	0	0
370/1046	ST	36	Benny Cunningham	-0.1	-0.1	0	0	0
585/1046	ST	31	Maurice Alexander	-0.5	-1	0.5	0	0
962/1046	ST	51	Marshall McFadden	-0.5	0	-0.5	0	0
728/1046	ST	72	Joe Barksdale	-1	0	0	0	-1
1035/1046	ST	53	Daren Bates	-1	0	-1	0	0
728/1046	ST	88	Lance Kendricks	-1	0	0	-1	0

Not a good game for the Rams' linebackers, and it's reflected in this weeks grades. There's little doubt they were at least partly responsible for Phillip Rivers completing 29 of 35 passes, and Ryan Matthews rushing for 105 yards on only 12 carries. The game featured many missed tackles by the Rams.

Aaron Donald continues to impress, and was the highest-graded Rams defender in the game against the Chargers. For the season, Donald is the second-highest graded DT in the NFL.

Stedman Bailey had his best game as a Ram, and Kenny Britt continues to excel. Britt becomes a free agent after the season. I'd like to see the Rams re-sign him at a reasonable cost.

Davin Joseph was the highest-graded Ram on the offensive side of the ball. His play has improved since being re-instated to the starting lineup, after the season-ending injury to Jake Long. After a couple of less-than-stellar performances, Joe Barksdale had a solid game against the Chargers.

Greg Robinson had his worst game as a Ram, and was the Rams' lowest-graded offensive player. Robinson is exhibiting some growing pains, particularly in pass protection, as expected.

For the second consecutive week, Jo-Lonn Dunbar saw very limited action (4 plays). The Rams went with 3 cornerbacks for the vast majority of the game.