Rams-Broncos: Key Stats Analysis - Week 11

The Rams played their best game of the season on Sunday against the Denver Broncos, winning 22-7 at the EJD. As one might expect, the Rams produced their best overall results of the season in the key team statistical measures I've been tracking since Week 1. The Rams appear to be a team on the rise, with hard-fought wins over the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers in the past 5 weeks. The game against the Broncos finally revealed the style of play the Rams faithful had been expecting to see since the start of the season: A conservative, ball-control offense centred on the running game, coupled with a ferocious, suffocating defense.

Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these 5 particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2014 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 7 wins in 2013. The team had a positive turnover differential in 6 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other victory. Overall, the Rams finished 9'th in Turnover Differential (plus +8) last season. In 2013, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in this key statistic.

For the first time this season, the Rams won the turnover battle, finishing the game with a plus +2 Turnover Differential. Peyton Manning threw a pair of interceptions, while the Rams held on to the ball throughout the game, finishing with zero giveaways. Both of Manning's interceptions occurred in the fourth quarter, with the Broncos down by two scores. The Rams scored a pair of field goals as a result of the turnovers, sealing the Rams' 22-7 victory.

The Rams currently rank 23'rd in the league in Turnover Differential (-3).

	Team	Takeaways	Giveaways	Turnover Differential
1	Green Bay Packers	22	8	14
2	Arizona Cardinals	20	9	11
3	New England Patriots	19	8	11
4	San Francisco 49ers	21	11	10
5	Houston Texans	23	15	8
6	Cleveland Browns	18	10	8
7	Buffalo Bills	21	14	7
8	Seattle Seahawks	14	9	5
9	Atlanta Falcons	18	15	3
10	Detroit Lions	16	13	3
11	Miami Dolphins	19	16	3
12	Denver Broncos	12	10	2
13	Minnesota Vikings	14	13	1
14	Baltimore Ravens	15	14	1
15	Cincinnati Bengals	15	14	1
16	San Diego Chargers	10	9	1
17	Indianapolis Colts	17	16	1
18	Dallas Cowboys	17	18	-1
19	Tennessee Titans	11	13	-2
20	Kansas City Chiefs	8	10	-2
21	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	15	-2
22	Carolina Panthers	17	19	-2
23	St. Louis Rams	13	16	-3
24	New York Giants	17	21	-4
25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15	20	-5
26	Chicago Bears	14	20	-6
27	New Orleans Saints	10	19	-9
28	Philadelphia Eagles	16	25	-9
29	Washington Redskins	9	20	-11
30	New York Jets	7	18	-11
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	11	22	-11
32	Oakland Raiders	8	20	-12

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2013, the Rams were the 2'nd most penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game. An excessive number of penalties can stall drives, and can keep opponents' drives alive. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

The Rams were flagged for 3 penalties - totalling 25 yards - in the game against Denver. The Broncos committed 8 penalties for 62 yards. For the Rams, the result was a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential of 37 yards. Overall, the Rams played a disciplined game against Denver, and minimized the effect of penalties on the outcome.

After 10 games, the Rams are tied for 10'th most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.4 penalties per game. The Rams are 3'rd in the league in most penalty yards (701), and are 31'st in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-256). In an interesting twist, the Rams rank 4'th in the NFL in fewest Opponent Penalty Yards (445). Apparently the officials still aren't too keen on penalizing the Rams' opponents.

Rank	Team	GP	Pen Yds	Opp. Pen Yds	Pen Yds Diff	Pen Yds Diff/Game
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	331	556	225	14.06
2	Arizona Cardinals	10	523	723	200	12.50
3	Kansas City Chiefs	10	343	537	194	12.13
4	Green Bay Packers	10	488	674	186	11.63
5	Miami Dolphins	10	406	564	158	9.88
6	New Orleans Saints	10	448	603	155	9.69
7	Baltimore Ravens	10	513	649	136	8.50
8	Philadelphia Eagles	10	605	724	119	7.44
9	New York Giants	10	441	551	110	6.88
10	Minnesota Vikings	10	540	649	109	6.81
11	Cincinnati Bengals	10	494	597	103	6.44
12	Oakland Raiders	10	526	617	91	5.69
13	Dallas Cowboys	10	443	506	63	3.94
14	San Diego Chargers	10	560	600	40	2.50
15	Carolina Panthers	11	556	592	36	2.25
16	Washington Redskins	10	697	715	18	1.13
17	Chicago Bears	10	648	646	-2	-0.13
18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	626	615	-11	-0.69
19	San Francisco 49ers	10	572	558	-14	-0.88
20	Houston Texans	10	525	494	-31	-1.94
21	Indianapolis Colts	10	542	507	-35	-2.19
22	Atlanta Falcons	10	588	545	-43	-2.69
23	Cleveland Browns	10	566	499	-67	-4.19
24	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	663	585	-78	-4.88
25	Detroit Lions	10	627	518	-109	-6.81
26	New York Jets	10	675	512	-163	-10.19
27	Buffalo Bills	10	690	508	-182	-11.38
28	Seattle Seahawks	10	596	371	-225	-14.06
29	Tennessee Titans	9	647	422	-225	-14.06
30	New England Patriots	10	752	524	-228	-14.25
31	St. Louis Rams	10	701	445	-256	-16.00
32	Denver Broncos	10	711	437	-274	-17.13

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them.

In the game against Denver, the Rams' offense produced 4 rushing big plays, and 2 passing big plays. The Rams' defense gave up just 1 big play in total (their best result of the season), resulting in a plus +5 Big Play Differential for the game. One passing big play for the Rams set the tone for the game, and was crucial to the Rams' victory. With 1:18 left in the first quarter, QB Shaun Hill hit WR Kenny Britt for a 63-yard touchdown pass. The score gave the Rams a 10-0 lead, a lead they never relinquished. In contrast, the Rams only gave up one big play the entire game, a pass to Emmanuel Sanders that resulted in a touchdown late in the second quarter. To their credit, the Rams' defense tightened up, and didn't allow the vaunted Broncos offense to score in the second half.

The Rams currently rank tied for 19'th in the league in Big Play Differential (-4).

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
1	Seattle Seahawks	628	67	53	14	10.67%	31	36
6	San Francisco 49ers	659	54	34	20	8.19%	31	23
9	Denver Broncos	667	52	24	28	7.8%	30	22
4	Washington Redskins	635	57	33	24	8.98%	39	18
5	Baltimore Ravens	648	55	38	17	8.49%	40	15
18	Miami Dolphins	655	46	34	12	7.02%	32	14
2	Dallas Cowboys	643	58	44	14	9.02%	46	12
28	Detroit Lions	648	40	19	21	6.17%	28	12
20	New York Jets	674	47	36	11	6.97%	37	10
7	Chicago Bears	649	51	30	21	7.86%	43	8
3	Green Bay Packers	601	54	35	19	8.99%	52	2
13	Houston Texans	640	49	35	14	7.66%	49	0
22	Minnesota Vikings	626	43	31	12	6.87%	43	0
14	Cincinnati Bengals	620	47	30	17	7.58%	48	-1
24	Arizona Cardinals	634	43	21	22	6.78%	44	-1
11	Philadelphia Eagles	717	55	31	24	7.67%	57	-2
29	Buffalo Bills	634	38	19	19	5.99%	40	-2
12	Cleveland Browns	665	51	28	23	7.67%	54	-3
17	St. Louis Rams	616	44	27	17	7.14%	48	-4
26	New England Patriots	685	44	26	18	6.42%	48	-4
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	676	53	24	29	7.84%	59	-6
10	Indianapolis Colts	723	56	28	28	7.75%	64	-8
21	New Orleans Saints	706	49	34	15	6.94%	57	-8
23	Tennessee Titans	514	35	23	12	6.81%	45	-10
27	San Diego Chargers	623	39	21	18	6.26%	49	-10
30	Carolina Panthers	713	41	25	16	5.75%	51	-10
19	Jacksonville Jaguars	627	44	26	18	7.02%	55	-11
15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	582	43	22	21	7.39%	56	-13
31	Atlanta Falcons	638	35	22	13	5.49%	50	-15
32	Oakland Raiders	588	31	16	15	5.27%	47	-16
16	Kansas City Chiefs	613	45	35	10	7.34%	63	-18
25	New York Giants	664	43	25	18	6.48%	73	-30

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2013. 12 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential. Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials.

In Sunday's game, the Rams had 12 drives in total, and scored 22 points on those drives (1.83 points per drive), a significant improvement over the last three games. The Broncos had 13 drives in total, and scored 7 points on those drives (0.54 points per drive), the best result of the season for the Rams' defense. The Rams' Points Per Drive Differential versus the Broncos: Plus +1.29.

Red-zone effectiveness continues to be a problem for the Rams. The Rams were 0-for-3 in red-zone touchdowns scored against the Broncos. Once inside an opponents 20-yard line, the Rams are scoring touchdowns only 52% of the time (21'st in the NFL). The Rams have 12 red-zone touchdowns this season, second fewest in the NFL.

After 10 games, the Rams rank 29'th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (- 0.75).

	Team	Points Per Drive	Points Per Drive Against	Point Differential
1	Green Bay Packers	3.08	2.01	1.08
2	New England Patriots	2.83	1.86	0.97
3	Kansas City Chiefs	2.32	1.61	0.7
4	Baltimore Ravens	2.33	1.65	0.68
5	Miami Dolphins	2.18	1.57	0.62
6	Arizona Cardinals	2.06	1.49	0.57
7	Denver Broncos	2.31	1.79	0.52
8	Dallas Cowboys	2.37	1.93	0.45
9	Philadelphia Eagles	2.32	1.87	0.44
10	Indianapolis Colts	2.48	2.07	0.41
11	Seattle Seahawks	2.41	2.01	0.4
12	Detroit Lions	1.68	1.36	0.32
13	San Diego Chargers	2.02	1.75	0.27
14	Houston Texans	1.92	1.66	0.27
15	Cleveland Browns	1.8	1.55	0.25
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.33	2.13	0.2
17	New Orleans Saints	2.46	2.42	0.04
18	San Francisco 49ers	1.87	1.88	-0.01
19	Cincinnati Bengals	1.9	1.96	-0.06
20	Buffalo Bills	1.59	1.65	-0.06
21	Atlanta Falcons	2.11	2.32	-0.21
22	Minnesota Vikings	1.56	1.91	-0.35
23	New York Giants	1.72	2.16	-0.43
24	Washington Redskins	1.69	2.31	-0.62
25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.78	2.43	-0.65
26	Carolina Panthers	1.73	2.4	-0.67
27	Tennessee Titans	1.38	2.08	-0.7
28	Chicago Bears	1.94	2.69	-0.75
29	St. Louis Rams	1.59	2.35	-0.75
30	New York Jets	1.49	2.3	-0.82
31	Oakland Raiders	1.29	2.25	-0.96
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.25	2.33	-1.08

Score At Half-Time

In 2013, the Rams finished with a 7-9 record. In all 7 victories, the Rams were either tied or leading at half-time. In the Rams' wins against Tampa Bay and Seattle this season, they were leading at the half in both contests. In the win against San Francisco, the Rams were tied 10-10 at half-time.

In the game against Denver, the Rams went into the locker room with a 13-7 lead at the half. The Rams held the Broncos scoreless in the second half, and went on to win the contest 22-7.

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  13	Lost 34-6
2	Even	Negative	Positive	Negative	10  7	Won 19-17
3	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	21  10	Lost 34-31
4	-	-	-	-	-	Bye Week
5	Even	Positive	Positive	Negative	7  20	Lost 34-28
6	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	14  10	Lost 31-17
7	Even	Negative	Negative	Positive	21  6	Won 28-26
8	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	7  10	Lost 34-7
9	Even	Negative	Positive	Negative	10  10	Won 13-10
10	Negative	Positive	Negative	Negative	14  10	Lost 31-14
11	Positive	Positive	Positive	Positive	13  7	Won 22-7

A couple of firsts occurred for the Rams in their game against the Denver Broncos, the most complete game the team has played this season. For the first time this season, the Rams had a positive Turnover Differential. The game against the Broncos also marked the first time this season the Rams had a positive result in all 5 of the statistical categories being tracked.

Pro Football Focus Grades

As an added feature, OakCityRam is generously contributing his weekly compilation of Pro Football Focus grades for each Rams player. Although PFF grades have their shortcomings and are quite subjective, they do offer a unique perspective. The grades can be a valuable tool for analyzing individual player performance, especially when used in conjunction with other statistics. PFF provides - on their website - a detailed description of how players are graded.

NFL Rank	OFFENSE			Play Counts					Ratings
	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Pass	Run Block	Pass Block	Overall	Pass	Rush	Pass Block	Screen Block	Run Block	Penalty
46/112	LWR	81	Kenny Britt *	59	0	29	30	0	2.3	1.8	0	0	0	0.4	0.1
8/62	TE-R	89	Jared Cook	38	0	19	18	1	1.5	0.9	0	0.1	0	0.4	0.1
15/76	RT	72	Joe Barksdale *	66	0	0	34	32	1.1			0.9	0	-0.1	0.3
42/42	C	63	Scott Wells *	66	0	0	34	32	0.9			-0.2	0	1	0.1
30/60	HB	36	Benny Cunningham	19	2	14	1	2	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.1	0	0	0
55/112	RWR	12	Stedman Bailey	31	0	20	11	0	0.8	0.7	0	0	0	0	0.1
43/62	TE-R	88	Lance Kendricks *	44	0	13	26	5	0.1	-0.4	0	0.3	0	0.1	0.1
81/112	RWR	11	Tavon Austin *	50	2	27	21	0	0	-0.6	0.5	0	0	0	0.1
Not Rated	LWR	13	Chris Givens	15	0	8	7	0	-0.3	-0.3	0	0	0	0	0
17/22	TE-L	46	Cory Harkey *	29	0	6	22	1	-0.5	-0.2	0	0.1	0	-0.5	0.1
Not Rated	QB	14	Shaun Hill *	66	0	32	34	0	-1.1	-1.2	0	0	0	0	0.1
42/78	LG	76	Rodger Saffold *	66	0	0	34	32	-1.6			0.8	0	-2.6	0.2
70/78	RG	69	Davin Joseph *	66	0	0	34	32	-2.1			1.3	0	-3.6	0.2
47/60	HB	27	Tre Mason *	45	29	10	1	5	-2.6	-0.2	-1.7	-0.7	0	0	0
27/78	LT	79	Greg Robinson *	66	0	0	34	32	-6.9			-0.6	0	-6.6	0.3

NFL Rank	DEFENSE			Play Counts				Ratings
	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Rush	Cov.	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Rush	Pass Cov.	Penalty
30/85	SS	25	T.J. McDonald *	71	12	1	58	5.5	0.1	-0.1	5.4	0.1
13/56	DRE	94	Robert Quinn *	60	6	54	0	2.6	-0.1	2.5	0	0.2
27/34	WLB	52	Alec Ogletree *	71	12	6	53	2.3	1.7	0.5	0	0.1
2/81	DLT	99	Aaron Donald *	63	12	51	0	1.1	0.6	-0.2	0.5	0.2
Not Rated	RCB	22	Trumaine Johnson *	67	9	0	58	1.1	0.1	0	0.9	0.1
46/60	MLB	55	James Laurinaitis *	71	12	12	47	0.2	0.2	1	-1.1	0.1
14/56	DLE	95	William Hayes	28	8	20	0	0.2	0.3	-0.7	0.5	0.1
36/85	FS	23	Rodney McLeod *	71	12	0	59	0.1	0.1	0	0.9	-0.9
Not Rated	DRE	93	Ethan Westbrooks	11	6	5	0	0	0.4	-0.4	0	0
Not Rated	SLB	59	Korey Toomer	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
41/56	DLE	97	Eugene Sims *	43	4	39	0	-0.1	0.9	-1.2	0	0.2
Not Rated	SS	26	Mark Barron	12	3	2	7	-0.1	0	-0.2	0.1	0
41/81	DRT	98	Kendall Langford	30	4	26	0	-1.4	-0.6	-0.9	0	0.1
19/112	SCB	33	E.J. Gaines *	71	12	4	55	-1.7	0.6	0.2	-2.6	0.1
59/81	DRT	90	Michael Brockers *	40	7	33	0	-1.8	-0.2	-1.7	0	0.1
84/112	LCB	21	Janoris Jenkins *	71	12	0	59	-2.3	0.1	0	-1.5	-0.9

SPECIAL TEAMS				Ratings
NFL Rank	Pos.	#	Name	Overall	Kickoffs	Punts	FG/EP	Penalty
2/34	P	6	Johnny Hekker	2.5	0	2.5	0	0
15/48	K	4	Greg Zuerlein	2	0	0	2	0
230/1010	ST	31	Maurice Alexander	1	0.5	0.5	0	0
100/1010	ST	54	Will Herring	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
52/1010	ST	42	Trey Watts	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
354/1010	ST	11	Tavon Austin	0.3	0	0.3	0	0
354/1010	ST	36	Benny Cunningham	-0.2	-0.2	0	0	0

The Rams' defense dominated the Peyton Manning-led Broncos offense, and it showed in this weeks individual PFF grades. Another outstanding performance by the defense as a whole.

Rams D past 3 weeks: 331.7 ypg, 45.33 rushing ypg, 2.57 ypc, 11.3 points per game, 3 INT, 2 fumble recoveries and 13 sacks.

— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) November 17, 2014

Scott Wells had his best game of the season for the Rams, and although it's not reflected in his grade, Davin Joesph enjoyed perhaps his best game as a Ram. Both were instrumental in allowing the Rams to rush the football effectively and control the clock.

Alec Ogletree and T.J. McDonald had outstanding games for the Rams, and keep improving as the season wears on. McDonald was the highest-graded Rams player in the game against the Broncos. Jeff Fisher revealed one of the reasons for Ogletree's improved play:

Key to Ogletree's revived play? Jeff Fisher says he's finally in shape. Ogletree reported heavy to camp.

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) November 17, 2014

Due to all of the Broncos' three-receiver sets, Jo-Lonn Dunbar didn't play in Sunday's game, and Mark Barron was limited to 12 snaps:

As suspected, Fisher said Dunbar not playing was function of Broncos being in so many 3-WR sets, throwing so much. He doesn't play in nickel

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) November 17, 2014