Rams-Eagles: Key Stats Analysis - Week 5

In the Week 3 game before the bye, the Rams came out hot in the first half against the Dallas Cowboys, opening up a 21-0 lead with just over two minutes remaining in the half. Against Philadelphia this past weekend, the Rams did an abrupt about-face. The Rams fell behind in the first minute of the game, and never quite recovered, falling behind 20-7 at half-time. This game was eminently winnable, with mistakes, penalties, and turnovers ultimately deciding the outcome.

Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these 5 particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2014 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 7 wins in 2013. The team had a positive turnover differential in 6 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other victory. Overall, the Rams finished 9'th in Turnover Differential (plus +8) last season. In 2013, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in this key statistic.

In the game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Rams had three takeaways. A Nick Foles interception led to the Rams' only points in the first half, and a Foles fumble in the fourth quarter resulted in another touchdown for the Rams.

The Rams' three giveaways were critical to the outcome of the game. In the 2'nd quarter, an Austin Davis fumble (the result of a Vinny Curry sack) on the Eagles' 5-yard line prevented the Rams from scoring. In the third quarter (deep in their own territory) the Rams' offensive line allowed Trent Cole to sack Davis, causing a fumble which the Eagles returned for a touchdown. RB Zac Stacy fumbled at the Eagles' 36-yard line late in the third quarter. The fumble was returned for 40 yards, and the Eagles scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive.

Although blocked punts don't show up on the stat line as a turnover, John Hekker's blocked punt (recovered and returned for a touchdown) in the first two minutes of the game put the Rams in a hole they never recovered from.

The Rams are currently tied for 25'th in the league in Turnover Differential (minus -3).

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2013, the Rams were the 2'nd most penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game. An excessive number of penalties can stall drives, and can keep opponents' drives alive. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

The Rams were flagged for 10 penalties in the game against Philadelphia. Particularly telling is the difference in penalty yards between Philadelphia and St. Louis. Philadelphia committed 4 penalties for 39 yards. The Rams totalled 82 penalty yards on their 10 infractions, resulting in a negative Team Penalty Yards Differential of 43 yards.

After 4 games, the Rams are the 4'th most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 9.0 penalties per game. The Rams are 6'th in the league in most penalty yards (387), and are 2'nd worst in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-243). In an interesting twist, the Rams rank 1'st in the NFL in fewest Opponent Penalty Yards (144). Apparently the officials aren't too keen on penalizing the Rams' opponents.

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them.

In the game against Philadelphia, the Rams' offense produced 6 rushing big plays, and 4 passing big plays. The Rams' defense gave up 6 big plays in total. The Rams' Big Play Differential for Week 5 was plus +4, their best result of the season. The Rams moved the ball quite well in this game, and accumulated 466 yards in total offense, again their best result of the season.

The Rams are currently tied for 15'th in the league in Big Play Differential (minus -1).

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
10	San Francisco 49ers	326	28	20	8	8.59%	11	17
8	Denver Broncos	261	23	11	12	8.81%	10	13
2	Washington Redskins	272	26	15	11	9.56%	14	12
4	Seattle Seahawks	181	17	12	5	9.39%	8	9
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	330	33	18	15	10%	26	7
5	Dallas Cowboys	331	31	25	6	9.37%	25	6
6	Baltimore Ravens	332	31	21	10	9.34%	25	6
24	Buffalo Bills	316	21	10	11	6.65%	15	6
14	Minnesota Vikings	321	26	17	9	8.1%	21	5
15	Chicago Bears	323	25	16	9	7.74%	20	5
30	Detroit Lions	329	19	8	11	5.78%	14	5
20	New York Jets	324	23	17	6	7.1%	20	3
9	Tennessee Titans	300	26	20	6	8.67%	24	2
19	Miami Dolphins	278	20	17	3	7.19%	18	2
3	Cleveland Browns	265	25	17	8	9.43%	26	-1
12	Atlanta Falcons	330	27	17	10	8.18%	28	-1
13	St. Louis Rams	271	22	12	10	8.12%	23	-1
16	Arizona Cardinals	243	18	10	8	7.41%	19	-1
17	New Orleans Saints	352	26	19	7	7.39%	27	-1
7	Cincinnati Bengals	238	21	11	10	8.82%	23	-2
26	San Diego Chargers	330	21	10	11	6.36%	23	-2
11	Philadelphia Eagles	339	28	17	11	8.26%	31	-3
28	New England Patriots	341	21	13	8	6.16%	24	-3
22	Houston Texans	302	21	14	7	6.95%	27	-6
27	New York Giants	339	21	13	8	6.19%	27	-6
18	Jacksonville Jaguars	291	21	12	9	7.22%	29	-8
25	Kansas City Chiefs	318	21	15	6	6.6%	29	-8
23	Green Bay Packers	275	19	14	5	6.91%	28	-9
21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	282	20	12	8	7.09%	31	-11
32	Oakland Raiders	228	11	6	5	4.82%	22	-11
29	Indianapolis Colts	378	22	14	8	5.82%	34	-12
31	Carolina Panthers	310	15	8	7	4.84%	27	-12

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2013. 12 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential. Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials.

In Sunday's game, the Rams had 14 drives in total, and scored 28 points on those drives (2.0 points per drive). The Eagles had 11 drives in total, and scored 20 points on those drives (1.82 points per drive). The Rams' Points Per Drive Differential versus the Eagles: Plus + .18.

After 4 games, the Rams rank 30'th in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (minus -0.92).

Score At Half-Time

In 2013, the Rams finished with a 7-9 record. In all 7 victories, the Rams were either tied or leading at half-time.

In the game versus Philadelphia, the Rams were losing 20-7 at the half, and went on to lose the game 34-28, despite scoring 21 unanswered points in the second half.

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  13	Lost 34-6
2	Even	Negative	Positive	Negative	10  7	Won 19-17
3	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	21  10	Lost 34-31
4	-	-	-	-	-	Bye Week
5	Even	Positive	Positive	Negative	7  20	Lost 34-28

Despite better performances in three of the statistical categories, the Rams still came out on the losing end of the game. Giveaways - and the blocked punt - cost the Rams a minimum of 24 points, ultimately too much to overcome.

Pro Football Focus Grades

As an added feature, OakCityRam is contributing his weekly compilation of Pro Football Focus grades for each Rams player. Although PFF grades have their shortcomings and are quite subjective, they do offer a unique perspective, and are a valuable tool for analyzing individual player performance.

Rank			OFFENSE	PLAY COUNTS					RATINGS
vs. NFL							Run	Pass	Ratings			Pass	Screen	Run
	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Pass	Block	Block	Overall	Pass	Rush	Block	Block	Block	Penalty
19/108	LWR	83	Brian Quick *	66	1	46	19	0	2.1	1.7	-0.2	0	0	0.5	0.1
1/68	RT	72	Joe Barksdale *	82	0	0	25	57	2.1			2.5	0	0.3	-0.7
13/61	TE-R	89	Jared Cook *	67	0	48	17	2	1.7	0.5	0	0.1	0	0.9	0.2
29/53	HB	36	Benny Cunningham	45	7	27	2	9	1.7	0.5	0.6	0.6	0	0	0
17/53	HB	30	Zac Stacy *	33	11	17	3	2	0.7	1.2	-0.6	0.1	0	0	0
23/61	TE-L	88	Lance Kendricks *	39	0	15	21	3	0.3	0	0	0.2	0.5	1.5	-1.9
14/74	LG	76	Rodger Saffold *	82	0	0	25	57	0.3			-0.2	0	0.3	0.2
Not Rated	RWR	11	Tavon Austin	25	0	19	6	0	0.2	0.2	0	0	0	0	0
12/35	QB	9	Austin Davis *	82	0	57	25	0	0.1	0.3	-0.4	0	0	0	0.2
Not Rated	HB	42	Trey Watts	4	2	2	0	0	0.1	0.5	-0.4	0	0	0	0
Not Rated	LWR	12	Stedman Bailey	17	0	13	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27/68	LT	77	Jake Long *	82	0	0	25	57	-0.9			-0.5	-0.5	-0.2	0.3
20/22	FB	46	Cory Harkey *	28	0	8	17	3	-1.5	-0.1	0	-0.3	0	-1.1	0
86/108	RWR	81	Kenny Britt	49	0	38	11	0	-1.9	-2	0	0	0.5	-0.5	0.1
66/74	RG	69	Davin Joseph *	82	0	0	25	57	-2.7			-0.2	0	-2.7	0.2
67/108	SLWR	18	Austin Pettis	37	0	33	4	0	-2.7	-2.8	0	0	0	0	0.1
35/38	C	63	Scott Wells *	82	0	0	25	57	-3.3			-1.1	0	-2.3	0.1

Rank			DEFENSE	PLAY COUNTS				RATINGS
vs. NFL								Ratings	Run	Pass	Pass
	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Rush	Cov.	Overall	Defense	Rush	Cov.	Penalty
5/73	DLT	99	Aaron Donald	26	9	17	0	3.9	1.2	2.6	0	0.1
13/102	LCB	33	E.J. Gaines *	76	35	0	41	3.8	0.2	0	3.5	0.1
16/32	SLB	58	JoLonn Dunbar *	38	26	2	10	2	2.5	-0.2	-0.3	0
31/73	DLE	95	William Hayes *	49	26	23	0	1.8	2.5	-0.9	0	0.2
55/78	SS	23	Rodney McLeod *	76	35	0	41	1.1	0.4	0	0.6	0.1
Not Rated	DLE	93	Ethan Westbrooks	27	9	18	0	0.9	0.8	0	0	0.1
30/102	RCB	21	Janoris Jenkins *	76	35	0	41	0.8	0.2	0	0.5	0.1
49/61	MLB	55	James Laurinaitis *	76	35	7	34	0.4	0.2	0.4	-0.3	0.1
31/32	WLB	52	Alec Ogletree *	76	35	7	34	-0.1	0.7	-0.6	-0.3	0.1
40/73	DRE	97	Eugene Sims	22	7	15	0	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2	0	0.1
26/52	DRE	94	Robert Quinn *	54	28	26	0	-0.5	-0.5	0.8	0	-0.8
66/78	FS	25	T.J. McDonald *	76	35	2	39	-0.6	1.9	-0.2	-2.4	0.1
Not Rated	SCB	20	Lamarcus Joyner	38	9	3	26	-1.1	0.6	-0.3	-0.4	-1
Not Rated	DRT	92	Alex Carrington	23	8	15	0	-1.5	-0.8	-0.8	0	0.1
47/52	DLT	98	Kendall Langford *	53	27	26	0	-2.1	-1.4	-0.9	0	0.2
57/73	DRT	90	Michael Brockers *	50	26	24	0	-2.4	-1.3	-1.3	0	0.2

Rank			SPECIAL TEAMS	RATINGS					# of
vs. NFL	Pos.	#	Name	Overall	Kick	Punt	FG/EP	Penalty	Pen	Tks	Ass	MT
9/33	P	6	Johnny Hekker	3.3	0	3.3	0	0		0	0	0
77/786	ST	46	Cory Harkey	1	0.5	0.5	0	0		2	0	0
18/44	K	4	Greg Zuerlein	0.4	0.4	0	0	0		0	0	0
145/786	ST	36	Benny Cunningham	-0.1	-0.1	0	0	0		0	0	0
270/786	ST	11	Tavon Austin	-0.2	0	-0.2	0	0		0	0	0
145/786	ST	50	Ray-Ray Armstrong	-1	0	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0
458/786	ST	34	Chase Reynolds	-1	0	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0

Aaron Donald, Joe Barksdale, E.J. Gaines and Brian Quick continue to impress, earning the teams highest grades against the Eagles.

Interior offensive linemen Scott Wells and Davin Joseph continued their below-average play in the game versus Philadelphia. Is it time for Greg Robinson to finally start a game?

Football games are won and lost in the trenches. In the game against Philadelphia, many of the offensive and defensive linemen generated below-average grades, and the Rams clearly lost the battle in the trenches. The linemen generally were the Rams' lowest graded players on Sunday.