Rams-Chiefs: Key Stats Analysis - Week 8

For the second consecutive week, special teams played a critical role for the Rams. Against Seattle, special teams play allowed the Rams to pull off the upset. This week, the tables were turned on them by the Kansas City Chiefs. After a William Hayes fumble recovery at the Kansas City 8-yard line - in a 7-7 game midway through the second quarter - the Rams quickly went three-and-out. Greg Zuerlein missed the subsequent chip shot 38-yard field goal try, and the Chiefs marched down the field for a field goal of its own. A six-point swing.

To open the third quarter, Knile Davis returned the kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown, giving the Chiefs a 17-7 lead. The Rams never recovered, going on to lose 34-7.

Several Rams players said the Knile Davis KOR for a TD was deflating to start second half.

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) October 26, 2014

Throughout the 2014 season, I'll be tracking five key team statistical measures, and their affect on the outcome of every Rams game: Turnover Differential, Big Play Differential, Points Per Drive Differential, Team Penalty Yards Differential, and the score of the game at half-time. When combined, Turnover Differential and Big Play Differential creates a statistic commonly referred to as "Toxic Differential".

Why were these 5 particular metrics selected for tracking throughout the 2014 season? Turnovers and Big Plays have proven to be influential in determining the outcome of a game. There's a historically strong correlation between Points Per Drive Differential and a teams regular season record. The score at half-time and Team Penalty Yards Differential were selected specifically with the Rams in mind. There appears to be a strong correlation between the score at half-time and the Rams' win/loss record. The Rams - under Jeff Fisher - have been among the league leaders in penalties, to their detriment.

Turnover Differential

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. The Rams finished with 7 wins in 2013. The team had a positive turnover differential in 6 of those wins, and a zero differential in the other victory. Overall, the Rams finished 9'th in Turnover Differential (plus +8) last season. In 2013, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in this key statistic.

In the game against Kansas City, the Rams had an even Turnover Differential. The Rams' Turnover Differential has been zero/even in each of their last 4 games. Austin Davis threw an interception mid-way through the first quarter, a giveaway causing little impact on the outcome of the game. William Hayes' fumble recovery on the Chiefs' 8-yard line should have resulted in points for the Rams. They couldn't move the ball forward, and Greg Zuerlein missed on a 38-yard field goal attempt.

The Rams are currently tied for 24'th in the league in Turnover Differential (minus -3).

Team Penalty Yards Differential

In 2013, the Rams were the 2'nd most penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 Team Penalties Per Game. An excessive number of penalties can stall drives, and can keep opponents' drives alive. In an average NFL game, the officials will call between 12-14 penalties per game (both teams combined). The Rams' goals should be to have no more than 6 penalties per game, plus a positive Team Penalty Yards Differential.

The Rams were flagged for 8 penalties - totalling 68 yards - in the game against Kansas City. In turn the Chiefs committed 7 penalties for 51 yards. For the Rams, the result was a negative Team Penalty Yards Differential of 17 yards.

After 7 games, the Rams are tied for 10'th most-penalized team in the NFL, averaging 7.7 penalties per game. The Rams are 7'th in the league in most penalty yards (513), and are worst in the league in Team Penalty Yards Differential (-209). In an interesting twist, the Rams rank 2'nd in the NFL in fewest Opponent Penalty Yards (304). Apparently the officials aren't too keen on penalizing the Rams' opponents.

Big Play Differential

Big Play Differential is the difference between the number of big plays - running plays of 10+ yards plus passing plays of 25+ yards - an offense creates, and the number of big plays a defense allows. How important are big plays to a teams offense/defense? Last season, NFL teams averaged 0.8 points per drive without a big play, and 3.9 points per drive with at least one of them.

In the game against Kansas City, the Rams' offense produced 3 rushing big plays, and just 1 passing big play. The Rams' defense gave up 6 big plays in total, a minus -2 Big Play Differential for the game. A 30-yard completion to Jamaal Charles - to the Rams' 14-yard line in the 3'rd quarter - resulted in a Chiefs field goal. Early in the 4'th quarter, a 36-yard touchdown run by Charles gave the Chiefs a 27-7 lead.

The Rams currently rank 26'th in the league in Big Play Differential (-10).

Rank	Team	Plays	Big Plays	Rush	Pass	Big Play %	BPA	+/-
7	Denver Broncos	450	39	20	19	8.67%	20	19
12	San Francisco 49ers	461	37	23	14	8.03%	20	17
2	Washington Redskins	440	41	22	19	9.32%	26	15
5	Seattle Seahawks	419	37	27	10	8.83%	22	15
1	Dallas Cowboys	461	44	35	9	9.54%	32	12
3	Baltimore Ravens	519	47	32	15	9.06%	36	11
15	Miami Dolphins	458	35	26	9	7.64%	26	9
30	Detroit Lions	531	31	14	17	5.84%	22	9
10	Chicago Bears	507	41	26	15	8.09%	33	8
14	Minnesota Vikings	509	39	27	12	7.66%	31	8
25	New York Jets	547	35	27	8	6.4%	31	4
8	Philadelphia Eagles	498	42	26	16	8.43%	40	2
4	Cleveland Browns	449	40	25	15	8.91%	39	1
11	New Orleans Saints	484	39	28	11	8.06%	38	1
22	Arizona Cardinals	445	31	17	14	6.97%	31	0
29	Buffalo Bills	503	31	13	18	6.16%	31	0
13	Indianapolis Colts	595	47	26	21	7.9%	49	-2
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	549	48	24	24	8.74%	51	-3
16	Houston Texans	497	37	26	11	7.44%	40	-3
24	San Diego Chargers	506	35	17	18	6.92%	38	-3
9	Green Bay Packers	473	39	27	12	8.25%	44	-5
17	Tennessee Titans	460	34	22	12	7.39%	40	-6
19	Kansas City Chiefs	452	32	24	8	7.08%	38	-6
21	Jacksonville Jaguars	502	35	22	13	6.97%	41	-6
28	New England Patriots	531	33	19	14	6.21%	41	-8
20	St. Louis Rams	441	31	18	13	7.03%	41	-10
23	Cincinnati Bengals	431	30	16	14	6.96%	40	-10
31	Oakland Raiders	411	23	13	10	5.6%	34	-11
26	Atlanta Falcons	504	32	20	12	6.35%	44	-12
18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	405	29	16	13	7.16%	43	-14
27	New York Giants	458	29	19	10	6.33%	44	-15
32	Carolina Panthers	513	26	16	10	5.07%	43	-17

Points Per Drive Differential

Points Per Drive Differential is a derivative of Points Scored/Allowed. It measures the number of points generated/allowed on an average drive. 13 teams reached the playoffs/won 10 games in 2013. 12 of them finished in the top dozen in Points Per Drive Differential. Successful teams with winning records are normally the most efficient - both offensively and defensively - and consistently generate positive PPD Differentials.

In Sunday's game, the Rams had 12 drives in total, and scored 7 points on those drives (0.58 points per drive), their worst showing of the season. The Chiefs had 11 drives in total, and scored 34 points on those drives (3.09 points per drive). The Rams' Points Per Drive Differential versus the Chiefs: Minus -2.51.

After 7 games, the Rams rank last in the league in Points Per Drive Differential (-1.13).

	Team	Points Per Drive	Points Per Drive Against	Point Differential
1	Denver Broncos	2.67	1.67	1
2	Baltimore Ravens	2.49	1.52	0.97
3	New England Patriots	2.64	1.92	0.72
4	San Diego Chargers	2.44	1.73	0.71
5	Kansas City Chiefs	2.38	1.68	0.69
6	Philadelphia Eagles	2.28	1.61	0.67
7	Dallas Cowboys	2.61	1.96	0.65
8	Indianapolis Colts	2.5	1.95	0.55
9	Detroit Lions	1.78	1.35	0.43
10	Green Bay Packers	2.64	2.22	0.42
11	Arizona Cardinals	2.02	1.65	0.37
12	Seattle Seahawks	2.29	2	0.29
13	Miami Dolphins	2.1	1.82	0.28
14	Houston Texans	1.95	1.69	0.25
15	Cleveland Browns	1.99	1.75	0.24
16	Buffalo Bills	1.71	1.62	0.09
17	New Orleans Saints	2.69	2.61	0.08
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.3	2.23	0.08
19	San Francisco 49ers	2.11	2.2	-0.09
20	Cincinnati Bengals	1.92	2.02	-0.11
21	New York Giants	1.9	2.01	-0.11
22	Atlanta Falcons	2.13	2.51	-0.38
23	Minnesota Vikings	1.46	1.86	-0.4
24	Carolina Panthers	1.96	2.42	-0.45
25	Washington Redskins	1.74	2.29	-0.55
26	Chicago Bears	2.05	2.61	-0.57
27	Tennessee Titans	1.47	2.13	-0.65
28	New York Jets	1.48	2.35	-0.87
29	Oakland Raiders	1.35	2.35	-1
30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.68	2.75	-1.07
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.18	2.29	-1.11
32	St. Louis Rams	1.74	2.88	-1.13

Score At Half-Time

In 2013, the Rams finished with a 7-9 record. In all 7 victories, the Rams were either tied or leading at half-time. In the Rams' wins against Tampa Bay and Seattle this season, they were leading at the half in both contests.

Against Kansas City, the Rams went into the half losing 10-7. The Chiefs pulled away in the second half, scoring 24 unanswered points (34 including the first half).

Weekly Summary

Week	Turnover Diff.	Big Play Diff.	PPD Diff.	PY Diff.	Half-Time	Game Score
1	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	0  13	Lost 34-6
2	Even	Negative	Positive	Negative	10  7	Won 19-17
3	Negative	Negative	Negative	Negative	21  10	Lost 34-31
4	-	-	-	-	-	Bye Week
5	Even	Positive	Positive	Negative	7  20	Lost 34-28
6	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	14  10	Lost 31-17
7	Even	Negative	Negative	Positive	21  6	Won 28-26
8	Even	Negative	Negative	Negative	7  10	Lost 34-7

Pro Football Focus Grades

As an added feature, OakCityRam is generously contributing his weekly compilation of Pro Football Focus grades for each Rams player. Although PFF grades have their shortcomings and are quite subjective, they do offer a unique perspective, and are a valuable tool for analyzing individual player performance, especially when used in conjunction with other statistics.

PFF	OFFENSE			Play Counts					Ratings
NFL Rank	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Pass	Run Block	Pass Block	Overall	Pass	Rush	Pass Block	Screen Block	Run Block	Penalty
18/19	TE-L	46	Cory Harkey *	15	0	4	10	1	0.7	-0.1	0	0.1	0	0.7	0
41/68	HB	36	Benny Cunningham *	17	4	10	1	2	0.6	0.3	0.7	-0.4	0	0	0
Not Rated	C	67	Barrett Jones	23	0	0	4	19	0.6			0.5	0	0.1	0
38/63	TE-R	88	Lance Kendricks *	29	0	15	12	2	0.5	0	0	0.1	0	0.3	0.1
51/112	LWR	81	Kenny Britt *	43	0	30	13	0	0.4	0.3	0	0	0	0	0.1
Not Rated	LWR	12	Stedman Bailey	22	0	15	7	0	-0.1	-0.1	0	0	0	0	0
Not Rated	LG	73	Mike Person	23	0	0	4	19	-0.1			-0.2	0	0	0.1
40/40	C	63	Scott Wells *	30	0	0	15	15	-0.2			0.4	0	-0.6	0
57/112	RWR	83	Brian Quick *	11	0	5	6	0	-0.2	-0.2	0	0	0	0	0
64/78	RG	69	Davin Joseph	38	0	0	11	27	-0.2			1.1	0	-1.4	0.1
Not Rated	HB	27	Tre Mason	19	7	9	1	2	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.4	0	0	0
Not Rated	LWR	13	Chris Givens	22	0	15	7	0	-0.6	-0.6	0	0	0	0	0
42/72	LT	77	Jake Long *	31	0	0	15	16	-0.7			-0.5	0	-0.3	0.1
26/58	HB	30	Zac Stacy	16	5	11	0	0	-0.7	-0.7	0	0	0	0	0
11/63	TE-L	89	Jared Cook	38	0	24	12	2	-0.8	-0.8	0	0.1	0	-0.2	0.1
94/112	SRWR	11	Tavon Austin	32	2	22	8	0	-0.8	-0.9	0	0	0	0	0.1
27/78	RG	76	Rodger Saffold *	15	0	0	8	7	-1.6			-0.7	0	-0.9	0
30/78	LG	79	Greg Robinson *	53	0	0	19	34	-2.3			-2.1	0	-0.3	0.1
4/72	RT	72	Joe Barksdale *	53	0	0	19	34	-3.5			-2.9	0	-0.8	0.2
28/35	QB	9	Austin Davis *	53	0	34	19	0	-3.8	-2.8	-0.1	0	0	0	-0.9

PFF	DEFENSE			Play Counts				Ratings
NFL Rank	Pos.	#	Name	Total	Run	Rush	Cov.	Overall	Run Defense	Pass Rush	Pass Cov.	Penalty
12/53	DLE	95	William Hayes *	52	25	26	1	2.5	2.5	-0.2	0	0.2
27/53	DRE	94	Robert Quinn *	51	22	28	1	2	0.1	1.7	0	0.2
45/77	DLT	98	Kendall Langford	28	18	9	1	1.5	0.9	0.5	0	0.1
2/77	DLT	99	Aaron Donald *	42	16	26	0	0.7	1.5	0.1	0	-0.9
Not Rated	FS	23	Rodney McLeod *	52	19	1	32	0.7	0.2	-0.1	0.5	0.1
80/83	SS	25	T.J. McDonald *	69	33	0	36	0.6	-0.1	0	0.6	0.1
Not Rated	RCB	47	Marcus Roberson *	68	32	0	36	0.2	-0.3	0	0.4	0.1
Not Rated	FS	38	Cody Davis	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
61/107	SCB	20	Lamarcus Joyner	37	17	1	19	0	1.1	-0.1	-1	0
55/77	DRT	90	Michael Brockers *	42	22	20	0	-0.1	0.8	-1	0	0.1
Not Rated	DRT	92	Alex Carrington	21	11	9	1	-0.3	0.1	-0.5	0	0.1
Not Rated	SLB	53	Daren Bates	5	5	0	0	-0.4	-0.4	0	0	0
34/34	WLB	52	Alec Ogletree *	65	29	10	26	-0.6	1.1	0.2	0	-1.9
33/57	DRE	97	Eugene Sims	37	19	18	0	-1.3	-0.4	-1	0	0.1
41/58	MLB	55	James Laurinaitis *	69	33	8	28	-1.4	-1.9	0.8	-0.4	0.1
27/34	SLB	58	JoLonn Dunbar *	50	27	6	17	-1.6	-0.5	-0.5	-0.7	0.1
22/107	LCB	33	E.J. Gaines *	68	32	1	35	-1.9	0.2	-0.1	-2.1	0.1

PFF	Special Teams			Ratings
NFL Rank	Pos.	#	Name	Overall	Kickoffs	Punts	FG/EP	Penalty
670/933	ST	38	Cody Davis	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
191/933	ST	51	Marshall McFadden	0.5	0	0.5	0	0
191/933	ST	73	Mike Person	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
317/933	ST	36	Benny Cunningham	0.3	0.3	0	0	0
317/933	ST	11	Tavon Austin	0.2	-0.1	0.3	0	0
75/933	ST	46	Cory Harkey	0	0	0	0	0
5/34	P	6	Johnny Hekker	0	0	0	0	0
317/933	LS	44	Jake McQuaide	0	0	0	0	0
670/933	ST	34	Chase Reynolds	0	0	0	0	0
764/933	ST	53	Daren Bates	-0.5	-0.5	0	0	0
317/933	ST	54	Will Herring	-0.5	0	-0.5	0	0
Not Rated	ST	35	Jemea Thomas	-1	0	0	0	-1
27/46	K	4	Greg Zuerlein	-2	-0.9	0	-1.1	0

The sea of red pretty much sums up the individual performances for the Rams in their game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Most notable is the performance (or lack thereof) of the Rams' offense as a whole.

The defensive linemen earned the highest grades for the Rams in this game. In contrast, the linebackers continue to struggle, and remain one of the lowest graded defensive units in the NFL.

With Jake Long and Brian Quick lost to season-ending injuries - and many others banged-up - the Rams' depth will be tested to the max in the coming weeks.