Dubs' Pigskin Picks & Rams Preview - Week 17

Week 16 is now in the history books. The Rams are coming off back-to-back victories against Tampa Bay and New Orleans. This weekend they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks. The game will be a tough match up for the Rams, but one that's eminently winnable. The season finale is an important game for this young Rams team. Every play and minute on the football field gives these young players invaluable experience. Finishing the season on a high note will serve as a springboard to better results in 2014.

Week 16 Results

The accompanying chart presents the results of my picks for Week 16, and the season totals to-date:

Week	Wins Straight Up	Wins vs Spread	Hot Picks vs. Spread	Rams Straight Up
Last Week	10 6	8 8	2 1	1 0
Season	164 76	147 93	36 12	9 6
Percentage	68.3	61.3	75	57.1

How are my results faring against the 93 experts Pickwatch is tracking? (link). My 10-6 record last week was enough to remain in 1st place overall in the standings, 1 win ahead of John Halpin from Fox Sports, and Gregg Rosenthal from the NFL Network. The last week of an NFL season always produces unexpected results. The last week of this season promises the same, as many playoff positions are still undecided.

The chart below identifies the top 25 in the overall standings:

Rank	Expert	Affiliation	Wk1	Wk2	Wk3	Wk4	Wk5	Wk6	Wk7	Wk8	Wk9	Wk10	Wk11	Wk12	Wk13	Wk14	Wk15	Wk16	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	Gregg Rosenthal	NFL	11	13	8	11	7	14	9	10	9	8	9	10	12	11	9	12	163	76	68.20%
2	John Halpin	FOX	9	11	11	10	7	12	10	11	9	8	12	10	11	12	9	11	163	76	68.20%
3	Ron Jaworski	ESPN	11	12	12	12	11	9	9	11	7	9	9	6	12	10	10	10	160	79	66.95%
4	Prediction Machine	CBS	11	13	11	9	7	12	11	11	9	6	12	5	12	14	8	9	160	79	66.95%
5	Pete O'Brien	USA Today	12	11	10	9	8	10	10	11	7	8	10	8	13	13	9	10	159	80	66.53%
6	Steve Mariucci	NFL	12	13	8	8	8	11	10	10	8	9	11	7	10	14	9	10	158	81	66.11%
7	Accuscore	Accuscore	11	11	7	9	9	10	10	11	10	9	12	6	12	13	9	9	158	81	66.11%
8	Chris Brockman	NFL	10	14	11	9	8	10	11	9	8	9	10	8	12	12	7	9	157	82	65.69%
9	Rick Drummond	ProFootballFocus	8	12	10	10	9	11	9	12	7	8	10	7	10	12	9	12	156	83	65.27%
10	Khaled Elsayed	ProFootballFocus	11	11	9	9	8	12	10	10	9	8	11	5	11	11	10	11	156	83	65.27%
11	Simon Samano	USA Today	10	12	10	10	10	9	9	12	6	7	9	10	12	12	8	10	156	83	65.27%
12	Dave Damashek	NFL	9	11	7	9	9	11	10	10	10	10	7	7	11	13	9	12	155	84	64.85%
13	Michael David Smith	PFT	12	12	10	9	8	11	8	10	8	6	12	5	13	12	9	10	155	84	64.85%
14	Sam Monson	ProFootballFocus	8	14	9	11	7	10	9	11	7	7	12	7	10	14	10	9	155	84	64.85%
15	Chris Wesseling	NFL	10	9	11	8	8	11	11	11	7	6	11	8	12	13	10	9	155	84	64.85%
16	Don Banks	Sports Illustrated	11	14	10	9	8	10	9	12	7	6	11	6	11	14	8	9	155	84	64.85%
17	Nate Davis	USA Today	11	14	8	8	9	11	9	11	8	9	10	8	11	11	9	8	155	84	64.85%
18	Dave Richard	CBS	10	12	8	7	9	9	12	11	7	9	9	8	12	10	12	9	154	85	64.44%
19	Andrea Hangst	Bleacher Report	10	11	12	9	9	9	11	11	9	9	9	5	11	13	7	9	154	85	64.44%
20	K.C. Joyner	ESPN	12	12	9	7	9	11	9	10	8	7	12	6	12	15	8	7	154	85	64.44%
21	Matt Smith**	NFL	10	12	7	9	10	11	11	11	8	9	0	7	2	10	8	0	125	69	64.43%
22	Kevin Patra	NFL	11	12	7	8	10	12	7	11	6	9	9	10	11	11	8	11	153	86	64.02%
23	Cris Carter	ESPN	12	13	10	8	9	10	8	10	6	7	8	7	12	13	10	10	153	86	64.02%
24	Jamey Eisenberg	CBS	11	13	12	8	8	9	10	11	8	7	8	7	11	11	9	10	153	86	64.02%
25	Black Tie	NFL	13	11	6	11	10	9	11	10	8	9	9	7	11	10	9	9	153	86	64.02

How did my "Hot Picks Versus The Spread" fare last week? Both Denver and Cincinnati won and covered the spread. Miami lost and didn't cover the spread. My record for the week: 2-1. Overall, my "hot picks" record is 36-12 for the season.

Week 17 Picks

For reference, the accompanying chart presents the straight-up, against the spread, and over/under records for all 32 NFL teams, after Week 16:

NFL RANKINGS

Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away Arizona Cardinals 10-5-0 6-1-0 4-4-0 10-4-1 5-2-0 5-2-1 7-8-0 3-4-0 4-4-0 Atlanta Falcons 4-11-0 3-4-0 1-7-0 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0 9-6-0 5-2-0 4-4-0 Baltimore Ravens 8-7-0 6-2-0 2-5-0 7-7-1 5-3-0 2-4-1 6-8-1 3-5-0 3-3-1 Buffalo Bills 6-9-0 4-4-0 2-5-0 8-7-0 6-2-0 2-5-0 8-6-1 4-4-0 4-2-1 Carolina Panthers 11-4-0 7-1-0 4-3-0 9-5-1 6-1-1 3-4-0 4-10-1 2-6-0 2-4-1 Chicago Bears 8-7-0 5-2-0 3-5-0 4-9-2 1-4-2 3-5-0 11-4-0 5-2-0 6-2-0 Cincinnati Bengals 10-5-0 7-0-0 3-5-0 9-5-1 7-0-0 2-5-1 9-6-0 5-2-0 4-4-0 Cleveland Browns 4-11-0 3-5-0 1-6-0 6-9-0 3-5-0 3-4-0 8-6-1 4-3-1 4-3-0 Dallas Cowboys 8-7-0 5-2-0 3-5-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 9-6-0 4-3-0 5-3-0 Denver Broncos 12-3-0 7-1-0 5-2-0 9-6-0 5-3-0 4-3-0 11-4-0 6-2-0 5-2-0 Detroit Lions 7-8-0 4-4-0 3-4-0 6-9-0 3-5-0 3-4-0 8-7-0 5-3-0 3-4-0 Green Bay Packers 7-7-1 4-3-1 3-4-0 5-10-0 3-5-0 2-5-0 8-7-0 3-5-0 5-2-0 Houston Texans 2-13-0 1-7-0 1-6-0 3-12-0 1-7-0 2-5-0 9-6-0 6-2-0 3-4-0 Indianapolis Colts 10-5-0 5-2-0 5-3-0 8-6-1 4-3-0 4-3-1 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 Jacksonville Jaguars 4-11-0 1-7-0 3-4-0 5-9-1 1-6-1 4-3-0 9-6-0 4-4-0 5-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs 11-4-0 5-3-0 6-1-0 8-7-0 2-6-0 6-1-0 6-9-0 3-5-0 3-4-0 Miami Dolphins 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 9-6-0 5-2-0 4-4-0 6-8-1 2-4-1 4-4-0 Minnesota Vikings 4-10-1 4-3-0 0-7-1 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 11-3-1 5-1-1 6-2-0 New England Patriots 11-4-0 7-0-0 4-4-0 7-8-0 5-2-0 2-6-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 New Orleans Saints 10-5-0 7-0-0 3-5-0 7-7-1 6-0-1 1-7-0 4-11-0 3-4-0 1-7-0 New York Giants 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0 6-9-0 2-5-0 4-4-0 7-8-0 4-3-0 3-5-0 New York Jets 7-8-0 6-2-0 1-6-0 8-6-1 6-2-0 2-4-1 8-7-0 3-5-0 5-2-0 Oakland Raiders 4-11-0 3-4-0 1-7-0 8-7-0 3-4-0 5-3-0 7-7-1 2-4-1 5-3-0 Philadelphia Eagles 9-6-0 4-4-0 5-2-0 8-7-0 3-5-0 5-2-0 9-6-0 3-5-0 6-1-0 Pittsburgh Steelers 7-8-0 4-3-0 3-5-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 San Diego Chargers 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0 9-5-1 5-2-0 4-3-1 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0 San Francisco 49ers 11-4-0 6-2-0 5-2-0 9-5-1 4-4-0 5-1-1 7-8-0 3-5-0 4-3-0 Seattle Seahawks 12-3-0 6-1-0 6-2-0 10-5-0 4-3-0 6-2-0 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0 St. Louis Rams 7-8-0 5-3-0 2-5-0 7-8-0 5-3-0 2-5-0 9-6-0 5-3-0 4-3-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-11-0 3-5-0 1-6-0 6-9-0 4-4-0 2-5-0 7-8-0 5-3-0 2-5-0 Tennessee Titans 6-9-0 2-5-0 4-4-0 6-5-4 1-3-3 5-2-1 9-5-1 6-1-0 3-4-1 Washington Redskins 3-12-0 2-6-0 1-6-0 5-10-0 3-5-0 2-5-0 8-7-0 4-4-0 4-3-0

The accompanying chart presents the format - and my selections - for each game this week: home team - away team - the spread - my straight-up winner - which team covers/beats the spread - and the outcome of the game:

Home	Away	Spread	Straight Up	Vs. Spread	Score
Atlanta	Carolina	Car 5 1/2	Carolina	Carolina	27 20
Cincinnati	Baltimore	Cin 6	Cincinnati	Baltimore	23 20
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Ind 11 1/2	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	24 17
Miami	NY Jets	Mia 5 1/2	Miami	Miami	27 20
Minnesota	Detroit	Min 3	Detroit	Detroit	24 20
NY Giants	Washington	NY 3 1/2	NY Giants	NY Giants	27 21
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	Pit 7	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	28 20
Tennessee	Houston	Ten 7	Tennessee	Tennessee	30 20
Chicago	Green Bay	GB 3	Green Bay	Green Bay	24 17
New England	Buffalo	NE 9	New England	New England	21 10
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	NO 13	New Orleans	New Orleans	31 14
Arizona	San Francisco	Pick	Arizona	Arizona	16 13
Oakland	Denver	Den 12	Denver	Denver	31 13
San Diego	Kansas City	SD 9 1/2	San Diego	Kansas City	21 14
Seattle	St Louis	Sea 10 1/2	Seattle	St. Louis	17 14
Dallas	Philadelphia	Phi 6 1/2	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	27 20

Hot Picks Versus The Spread

Carolina over Atlanta - Carolina is playing for a division title and a first round bye in the playoffs. They have won 10 of their last 11 games.

New Orleans over Tampa Bay - New Orleans is fighting for a division title and playoff seeding. They are 7-0 at home this season, and sport a 6-0-1 record against the spread at home.

Kansas City over San Diego - Kansas City is 6-1 against the spread in road games this season. They are looking to build some momentum heading into the playoffs.

Keys For The Rams Versus Seattle

In four wins as the Rams' starting quarterback in 2013, Kellen Clemens has thrown five touchdown passes and zero interceptions. In four losses as the starter, Clemens has two touchdowns passes and five interceptions.

Winning the turnover battle will be key for the Rams. The Rams had a positive turnover differential in six of their victories this season - and an even turnover differential in the seventh win.

Containing Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and Seattle's 3rd ranked rushing offense will be a key for the Rams, as it was in their earlier meeting. In that game, the Rams held Seattle to 44 yards rushing.

The Rams must get off to a fast start in Sunday's game. In each of their seven victories this year, the Rams have either been tied or leading at the half.

Minimizing penalties will allow the Rams better field position and momentum on drives.

The Rams must establish the running game with Zac Stacy, against a Seattle defense that ranks 13th in the NFL against the run [1st overall and 1st against the pass].

Greg Zuerlein has only missed two field goals on the year. One of the misses was costly in the Rams 14-9 loss to Seattle, in Week 8. In a game that's expected to be very close, Zuerlein must be accurate on all field goal attempts in this game.

Prediction: Seattle 17 - Rams 14

Perspective On The Rams Versus Seattle

Advanced NFL Stats takes an in-depth, statistical look at the match up between the Rams and Seattle (link).

CBS Sports' Pat Kirwan and Pete Prisco preview the game between the Rams and the Seahawks (link).

Bleacher Report breaks down St. Louis' game plan for Sunday's tilt with the Seahawks (link).

Ramblin' Fans' prediction for Sunday's game:

"St Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks. Rams fans know that their team hasn’t fared well in the Pacific Northwest in recent seasons. The Seahawks have been nearly invincible at home since Russell Wilson took over at QB, although they were taken down by the Cardinals last weekend. The last time these two teams met the Rams dominated the Seahawks at the line of scrimmage and completely controlled the game, and yet still lost. Kellen Clemens has looked miles better than he did in that game (his first start since 2011), and the Rams ground game has continued to surge behind Zac Stacy. In their last meeting the Rams defense got to Wilson 7 times with 3 each from Chris "White Thunder "Long and Robert "Black Lightning" Quinn. If the Rams are going to have a chance in this game they will need another dominant performance by the defensive line." Rams win 24 – 20.

ESPN's Mike Sando presents his "Inside Edge" on the Rams-Seattle match up (link).

"Seattle has averaged 176.3 yards through the air in its last three games after averaging 233.9 passing yards through its first 12, and Russell Wilson has been sacked 10 times in the past three contests after going down three times in the previous four."

"The Rams have the NFL's best run defense since Week 10, allowing an average of just 68.0 yards in the past six games after holding New Orleans and Tampa Bay to a combined 120 in consecutive victories."

"Zac Stacy leads a potent Rams ground game that has averaged 155.6 yards per game since Oct. 28 - second only to Philadelphia's 175.1 over that span."

All quotes are courtesy of the Wall Street Journal.

ESPN's Nick Wagoner and Terry Blount share their analysis of the Rams game versus Seattle (link).