Dubs' Pigskin Picks & Rams Preview - Week 16

Week 15 is now in the history books. The Rams are coming off a resounding thumping of the New Orleans Saints last weekend. This weekend they host a Tampa Bay team that - after beginning the season 0-8 - has come on to win 4 of their last 6 games. This game will be a tough match up for the Rams, but a game that's eminently winnable. The remaining 2 games on the Rams' schedule are important for this young team. Every play and minute on the football field gives these young players invaluable experience. Finishing the season on a high note will serve as a springboard to better results in 2014.

Week 15 Results

The accompanying chart presents the results of my picks for Week 15, and the season totals to-date:

Week	Wins Straight Up	Wins vs Spread	Hot Picks vs. Spread	Rams Straight Up
Last Week	8 8	8 8	2 1	0 1
Season	154 70	139 85	34 11	8 6
Percentage	68.8	62.1	75.6	57.1

How are my results faring against the 93 experts Pickwatch is tracking? (link). My .500 record last week was enough to remain in 1st place overall in the standings, 2 wins ahead of John Halpin from Fox Sports. Last week was a terrible one for picking winners, as 5 divisional leaders lost. A week of upsets, proof positive of the football adage "on any given Sunday".

The chart below identifies the top 25 in the overall standings:

Rank	Expert	Affiliation	Wk1	Wk2	Wk3	Wk4	Wk5	Wk6	Wk7	Wk8	Wk9	Wk10	Wk11	Wk12	Wk13	Wk14	Wk15	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	John Halpin	FOX	9	11	11	10	7	12	10	11	9	8	12	10	11	12	9	152	71	68.16%
2	Gregg Rosenthal	NFL	11	13	8	11	7	14	9	10	9	8	9	10	12	11	9	151	72	67.71%
3	Prediction Machine	CBS	11	13	11	9	7	12	11	11	9	6	12	5	12	14	8	151	72	67.71%
4	Ron Jaworski	ESPN	11	12	12	12	11	9	9	11	7	9	9	6	12	10	10	150	73	67.26%
5	Pete O'Brien	USA Today	12	11	10	9	8	10	10	11	7	8	10	8	13	13	9	149	74	66.82%
6	Accuscore	Accuscore	11	11	7	9	9	10	10	11	10	9	12	6	12	13	9	149	74	66.82%
7	Steve Mariucci	NFL	12	13	8	8	8	11	10	10	8	9	11	7	10	14	9	148	75	66.37%
8	Chris Brockman	NFL	10	14	11	9	8	10	11	9	8	9	10	8	12	12	7	148	75	66.37%
9	Nate Davis	USA Today	11	14	8	8	9	11	9	11	8	9	10	8	11	11	9	147	76	65.92%
10	K.C. Joyner	ESPN	12	12	9	7	9	11	9	10	8	7	12	6	12	15	8	147	76	65.92%
11	Sam Monson	ProFootballFocus	8	14	9	11	7	10	9	11	7	7	12	7	10	14	10	146	77	65.47%
12	Chris Wesseling	NFL	10	9	11	8	8	11	11	11	7	6	11	8	12	13	10	146	77	65.47%
13	Don Banks	Sports Illustrated	11	14	10	9	8	10	9	12	7	6	11	6	11	14	8	146	77	65.47%
14	Simon Samano	USA Today	10	12	10	10	10	9	9	12	6	7	9	10	12	12	8	146	77	65.47%
15	Dave Richard	CBS	10	12	8	7	9	9	12	11	7	9	9	8	12	10	12	145	78	65.02%
16	Khaled Elsayed	ProFootballFocus	11	11	9	9	8	12	10	10	9	8	11	5	11	11	10	145	78	65.02%
17	Michael David Smith	PFT	12	12	10	9	8	11	8	10	8	6	12	5	13	12	9	145	78	65.02%
18	Nathan Jahnke	ProFootballFocus	11	13	10	8	7	10	10	11	9	5	11	6	12	14	8	145	78	65.02%
19	Andrea Hangst	Bleacher Report	10	11	12	9	9	9	11	11	9	9	9	5	11	13	7	145	78	65.02%
20	Brad Gagnon	Bleacher Report	12	11	11	5	8	10	11	10	6	10	9	8	12	11	10	144	79	64.57%
21	Rick Drummond	ProFootballFocus	8	12	10	10	9	11	9	12	7	8	10	7	10	12	9	144	79	64.57%
22	Black Tie	NFL	13	11	6	11	10	9	11	10	8	9	9	7	11	10	9	144	79	64.57%
23	Chris Law	NFL	13	11	7	11	8	11	8	11	8	10	8	5	12	13	8	144	79	64.57%
24	Cris Carter	ESPN	12	13	10	8	9	10	8	10	6	7	8	7	12	13	10	143	80	64.13%
25	Dave Damashek	NFL	9	11	7	9	9	11	10	10	10	10	7	7	11	13	9	143	80	64.13%

How did my "Hot Picks Versus The Spread" fare last week? Both Kansas City and San Francisco won and covered the spread. Philadelphia lost and didn't cover the spread. My record for the week: 2-1. Overall, my "hot picks" record is 34-11 for the season.

Week 16 Picks

For reference, the accompanying chart presents the straight-up, against the spread, and over/under records for all 32 NFL teams, after Week 15:

NFL RANKINGS

Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away Arizona Cardinals 9-5-0 6-1-0 3-4-0 9-4-1 5-2-0 4-2-1 7-7-0 3-4-0 4-3-0 Atlanta Falcons 4-10-0 3-4-0 1-6-0 5-9-0 3-4-0 2-5-0 8-6-0 5-2-0 3-4-0 Baltimore Ravens 8-6-0 6-1-0 2-5-0 7-6-1 5-2-0 2-4-1 5-8-1 2-5-0 3-3-1 Buffalo Bills 5-9-0 3-4-0 2-5-0 7-7-0 5-2-0 2-5-0 8-5-1 4-3-0 4-2-1 Carolina Panthers 10-4-0 6-1-0 4-3-0 8-5-1 5-1-1 3-4-0 4-9-1 2-5-0 2-4-1 Chicago Bears 8-6-0 5-2-0 3-4-0 4-8-2 1-4-2 3-4-0 10-4-0 5-2-0 5-2-0 Cincinnati Bengals 9-5-0 6-0-0 3-5-0 8-5-1 6-0-0 2-5-1 8-6-0 4-2-0 4-4-0 Cleveland Browns 4-10-0 3-5-0 1-5-0 6-8-0 3-5-0 3-3-0 8-5-1 4-3-1 4-2-0 Dallas Cowboys 7-7-0 5-2-0 2-5-0 8-6-0 4-3-0 4-3-0 9-5-0 4-3-0 5-2-0 Denver Broncos 11-3-0 7-1-0 4-2-0 8-6-0 5-3-0 3-3-0 11-3-0 6-2-0 5-1-0 Detroit Lions 7-7-0 4-3-0 3-4-0 6-8-0 3-4-0 3-4-0 8-6-0 5-2-0 3-4-0 Green Bay Packers 7-6-1 4-2-1 3-4-0 5-9-0 3-4-0 2-5-0 7-7-0 2-5-0 5-2-0 Houston Texans 2-12-0 1-6-0 1-6-0 3-11-0 1-6-0 2-5-0 9-5-0 6-1-0 3-4-0 Indianapolis Colts 9-5-0 5-2-0 4-3-0 7-6-1 4-3-0 3-3-1 8-6-0 4-3-0 4-3-0 Jacksonville Jaguars 4-10-0 1-6-0 3-4-0 5-9-0 1-6-0 4-3-0 9-5-0 4-3-0 5-2-0 Kansas City Chiefs 11-3-0 5-2-0 6-1-0 8-6-0 2-5-0 6-1-0 6-8-0 3-4-0 3-4-0 Miami Dolphins 8-6-0 4-3-0 4-3-0 9-5-0 5-2-0 4-3-0 6-7-1 2-4-1 4-3-0 Minnesota Vikings 4-9-1 4-3-0 0-6-1 8-6-0 4-3-0 4-3-0 10-3-1 5-1-1 5-2-0 New England Patriots 10-4-0 7-0-0 3-4-0 6-8-0 5-2-0 1-6-0 7-7-0 4-3-0 3-4-0 New Orleans Saints 10-4-0 7-0-0 3-4-0 7-6-1 6-0-1 1-6-0 4-10-0 3-4-0 1-6-0 New York Giants 5-9-0 3-4-0 2-5-0 5-9-0 2-5-0 3-4-0 7-7-0 4-3-0 3-4-0 New York Jets 6-8-0 5-2-0 1-6-0 7-6-1 5-2-0 2-4-1 8-6-0 3-4-0 5-2-0 Oakland Raiders 4-10-0 3-4-0 1-6-0 8-6-0 3-4-0 5-2-0 7-6-1 2-4-1 5-2-0 Philadelphia Eagles 8-6-0 3-4-0 5-2-0 7-7-0 2-5-0 5-2-0 8-6-0 2-5-0 6-1-0 Pittsburgh Steelers 6-8-0 4-3-0 2-5-0 7-7-0 4-3-0 3-4-0 7-7-0 4-3-0 3-4-0 San Diego Chargers 7-7-0 3-3-0 4-4-0 8-5-1 4-2-0 4-3-1 6-8-0 3-3-0 3-5-0 San Francisco 49ers 10-4-0 5-2-0 5-2-0 9-4-1 4-3-0 5-1-1 6-8-0 2-5-0 4-3-0 Seattle Seahawks 12-2-0 6-0-0 6-2-0 10-4-0 4-2-0 6-2-0 6-8-0 3-3-0 3-5-0 St. Louis Rams 6-8-0 4-3-0 2-5-0 6-8-0 4-3-0 2-5-0 9-5-0 5-2-0 4-3-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-10-0 3-5-0 1-5-0 6-8-0 4-4-0 2-4-0 7-7-0 5-3-0 2-4-0 Tennessee Titans 5-9-0 2-5-0 3-4-0 6-5-3 1-3-3 5-2-0 9-4-1 6-1-0 3-3-1 Washington Redskins 3-11-0 2-5-0 1-6-0 4-10-0 2-5-0 2-5-0 8-6-0 4-3-0 4-3-0

The accompanying chart presents the format - and my selections - for each game this week: home team - away team - the spread - my straight-up winner - which team covers/beats the spread - and the outcome of the game:

Home	Away	Spread	Straight Up	Vs. Spread	Score
Buffalo	Miami	Mia 2 1/2	Miami	Miami	23 20
Carolina	New Orleans	Car 3	Carolina	Carolina	24 20
Cincinnati	Minnesota	Cin 7	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	27 17
Houston	Denver	Den 10 1/2	Denver	Denver	31 17
Jacksonville	Tennessee	Ten 5 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	23 17
Kansas City	Indianapolis	KC 6 1/2	Kansas City	Kansas City	27 20
NY Jets	Cleveland	NY 2 1/2	NY Jets	NY Jets	23 20
St. Louis	Tampa Bay	StL 4	St. Louis	St. Louis	23 17
Washington	Dallas	Dal 2 1/2	Dallas	Dallas	23 20
Detroit	NY Giants	Det 9	Detroit	Detroit	31 20
Seattle	Arizona	Sea 10 1/2	Seattle	Arizona	23 17
Green Bay	Pittsburgh	Pick	Green Bay	Green Bay	21 17
San Diego	Oakland	SD 10	San Diego	Oakland	28 20
Baltimore	New England	Bal 2 1/2	Baltimore	Baltimore	24 20
Philadelphia	Chicago	Phi 3	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	24 20
San Francisco	Atlanta	SF 13	San Francisco	San Francisco	28 14

Hot Picks Versus The Spread

Denver over Houston - Denver is in a battle for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Houston has now lost 12 straight games.

Cincinnati over Minnesota - Cincinnati needs a victory to stay one step ahead of the Baltimore Ravens, in a close battle for the NFC North divisional crown.

Miami over Buffalo - Miami is fighting for a wild card spot. They are coming off a big win against the New England Patriots, and have won three straight games.

Keys For The Rams Versus Tampa Bay

In three wins as the Rams' starting quarterback in 2013, Kellen Clemens has thrown five touchdown passes and zero interceptions to go along with a 119.3 passer rating. In four losses as the starter, Clemens has two touchdowns passes and five interceptions to go with a 60.6 passer rating.

Winning the turnover battle will be key for the Rams. The Rams had a positive turnover differential in all six of their victories this season.

Tampa Bay QB Mike Glennon has been sacked 14 times in the last 4 games. Pressuring Glennon will make the game difficult for Tampa Bay, a team that is ranked last in the NFL in total offense.

The Rams must get off to a fast start in Sunday's game. In each of their six victories this year, the Rams have either been tied or leading at the half.

Minimizing penalties will allow the Rams better field position and momentum on drives.

The Rams must establish the running game with Zac Stacy, against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 15th in the NFL against the run.

The Rams must contain running back Bobby Rainey and wide receiver Vincent Jackson.

Prediction: Rams 23 - Tampa Bay 17

Perspective On The Rams Versus Tampa Bay

Advanced NFL Stats takes an in-depth, statistical look at the match up between the Rams and Tampa Bay (link).

CBS Sports' Pat Kirwan and Pete Prisco preview the game between the Rams and the Buccaneer's (link).

ESPN's Mike Sando presents his "Inside Edge" on the Rams-Tampa Bay match up (link).

Bleacher Report breaks down St. Louis' game plan for Sunday's game against Tampa Bay (link).

Ramblin' Fans' prediction for Sunday's game:

Prediction: Rams 24 Buccaneers 13

"The Rams play well at home and the Buccaneers have not played well on the road. The Rams have been inconsistent this season, but I think Robert Quinn and the Rams defense gives Mike Glennon and the Bucs offense trouble and help get the Rams a win."

Pro Football Focus presents its 3 keys to focus on for Sunday's game (link).

ESPN's Nick Wagoner and Pat Yasinskas share their analysis of the Rams game vs. Tampa Bay (link).

MATCHUP	ANALYSIS
	Pat Yasinskas: Over the last six weeks, the Bucs have played well against mediocre teams while struggling against Carolina and San Francisco. I'm thinking that trend will continue and the Bucs will win this game. Bucs 20, Rams 14	Nick Wagoner: The Rams have made a habit of being hard to peg from week to week and a letdown after a big win last week is certainly possible. However, I just don't see the Bucs being able to move the ball consistently enough to pull off a win against a Rams defense that seems to be coalescing. Rams 24, Bucs 13