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Week 14 of the NFL season is in the history books. The St. Louis Rams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. The remaining three games on the Rams' schedule are important for this young team. Every play and minute on the football field gives these young players invaluable experience. Finishing the season on a high note will serve as a springboard to better results in 2014.
Weekly Results
The accompanying charts present the results of my picks from Week 11 through Week 14, and the season totals to-date.
Week 11
Week | Wins Straight Up | Wins vs Spread | Hot Picks vs. Spread | Rams Straight Up |
Last Week | 11 4 | 10 5 | 2 1 | 0 0 |
Season | 109 53 | 101 61 | 25 8 | 5 5 |
Percentage | 67.3 | 62.3 | 75.8 | 50 |
Week 12
Week | Wins Straight Up | Wins vs Spread | Hot Picks vs. Spread | Rams Straight Up |
Last Week | 10 4 | 10 4 | 2 1 | 1 0 |
Season | 119 57 | 111 65 | 27 9 | 6 5 |
Percentage | 67.6 | 63.1 | 75 | 54.5 |
Week 13
Week | Wins Straight Up | Wins vs Spread | Hot Picks vs. Spread | Rams Straight Up |
Last Week | 14 2 | 10 6 | 3 0 | 1 0 |
Season | 133 59 | 121 71 | 30 9 | 7 5 |
Percentage | 69.3 | 63.1 | 76.9 | 58.3 |
Week 14
Week | Wins Straight Up | Wins vs Spread | Hot Picks vs. Spread | Rams Straight Up |
Last Week | 13 3 | 10 6 | 2 1 | 1 0 |
Season | 146 62 | 131 77 | 32 10 | 8 5 |
Percentage | 70.2 | 63.1 | 76.2 | 61.5 |
How are my results faring against the 93 experts Pickwatch is tracking? (link). My 146 wins has placed me on top of the standings, three wins in front of the 2nd place prognosticators. Week 12 held the key to my rise in the standings. Most of the experts in the top 20 faltered that week, barely achieving .500 records with their picks. It appeared that many of the experts changed their selection philosophies that week - and in the ensuing weeks - to their detriment. The methodology I use to determine weekly picks has not changed in 25 years. The goal every year is to pick winners at a 70% success rate, and to finish with 180 wins.
The chart below identifies the top 25 in the overall standings:
Rank | Expert | Affiliation | Wk1 | Wk2 | Wk3 | Wk4 | Wk5 | Wk6 | Wk7 | Wk8 | Wk9 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wins | Losses | Win % |
1 | Prediction Machine | CBS | 11 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 143 | 64 | 69.08% |
2 | John Halpin | FOX | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 143 | 64 | 69.08% |
3 | Gregg Rosenthal | NFL | 11 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 142 | 65 | 68.60% |
4 | Chris Brockman | NFL | 10 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 141 | 66 | 68.12% |
5 | Pete O'Brien | USA Today | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 140 | 67 | 67.63% |
6 | Accuscore | Accuscore | 11 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 140 | 67 | 67.63% |
7 | Ron Jaworski | ESPN | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 140 | 67 | 67.63% |
8 | K.C. Joyner | ESPN | 12 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 139 | 68 | 67.15% |
9 | Steve Mariucci | NFL | 12 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 139 | 68 | 67.15% |
10 | Don Banks | Sports Illustrated | 11 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 138 | 69 | 66.67% |
11 | Andrea Hangst | Bleacher Report | 10 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 138 | 69 | 66.67% |
12 | Simon Samano | USA Today | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 138 | 69 | 66.67% |
13 | Nate Davis | USA Today | 11 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 138 | 69 | 66.67% |
14 | Nathan Jahnke | ProFootballFocus | 11 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 137 | 70 | 66.18% |
15 | Sam Monson | ProFootballFocus | 8 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 136 | 71 | 65.70% |
16 | Chris Wesseling | NFL | 10 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 136 | 71 | 65.70% |
17 | Chris Law | NFL | 13 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 136 | 71 | 65.70% |
18 | Michael David Smith | PFT | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 136 | 71 | 65.70% |
19 | Matt Smith** | NFL | 10 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 117 | 62 | 65.36% |
20 | Rick Drummond | ProFootballFocus | 8 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 135 | 72 | 65.22% |
21 | Khaled Elsayed | ProFootballFocus | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 135 | 72 | 65.22% |
22 | Black Tie | NFL | 13 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 135 | 72 | 65.22% |
23 | Tyson Langland | Bleacher Report | 10 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 134 | 73 | 64.73% |
24 | Dave Damashek | NFL | 9 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 134 | 73 | 64.73% |
25 | Seth Wickersham | ESPN | 9 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 134 | 73 | 64.73% |
How did my weekly "Hot Picks Versus The Spread" fare? Kansas City and Denver won and covered the spread. Seattle lost to San Francisco and did not cover the spread. My "hot picks" record for the week: 2-1. Overall, my "hot picks" record for the season is 32-10.
Week 15 Picks
For reference, the accompanying chart presents the straight-up, against the spread, and over/under records for all 32 NFL teams, after Week 14:
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The accompanying chart presents the format - and my selections - for each game this week: home team - away team - the spread - my straight-up winner - which team covers/beats the spread - and the outcome of the game:
Home | Away | Spread | Straight Up | Vs. Spread | Score |
Denver | San Diego | Den 10 | Denver | Denver | 31 20 |
Atlanta | Washington | Atl 6 | Atlanta | Atlanta | 27 20 |
Cleveland | Chicago | Cle 1 | Chicago | Chicago | 23 17 |
Indianapolis | Houston | Ind 5 1/2 | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | 27 21 |
Jacksonville | Buffalo | Jac 1 | Jacksonville | Jacksonville | 21 17 |
Miami | New England | NE 2 | New England | New England | 24 21 |
Minnesota | Philadelphia | Phi 5 | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 28 21 |
NY Giants | Seattle | Sea 7 | Seattle | Seattle | 30 17 |
Tampa Bay | San Francisco | SF 5 | San Francisco | San Francisco | 24 14 |
Carolina | NY Jets | Car 11 | Carolina | Carolina | 31 17 |
Oakland | Kansas City | KC 4 1/2 | Kansas City | Kansas City | 27 14 |
St. Louis | New Orleans | NO 6 | New Orleans | New Orleans | 27 20 |
Tennessee | Arizona | Ari 3 | Arizona | Arizona | 21 17 |
Dallas | Green Bay | Dal 7 | Dallas | Dallas | 27 19 |
Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | Cin 3 | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 24 17 |
Detroit | Baltimore | Det 6 | Detroit | Baltimore | 27 24 |
Hot Picks Versus The Spread
Kansas City over Oakland - Kansas City is back on track, and in the hunt for the AFC West divisional crown. They also have a chance to gain home field throughout the playoffs.
San Francisco over Tampa Bay - The 49ers are coming off a big win against the Seattle Seahawks, and have won three straight games. They will be looking to solidify their playoff position.
Philadelphia over Minnesota - The Eagles have won five straight games, and are in a tight race with Dallas in the NFC East. The Eagles will likely need to win the division to make the playoffs.
Keys For The Rams vs. New Orleans
- Winning the turnover battle is key to the Rams staying close in this game.
- Containing TE Jimmy Graham. Will the Rams use Alec Ogletree - or a cornerback - to minimize his impact on the game?
- The Rams must establish the run with Zac Stacy. The Saints rank 16th in the NFL against the run.
- Containing and pressuring Drew Brees will be vital in slowing down the Saints' offense, which ranks 7th in the league in points scored-per-game.
- Minimizing penalties will allow the Rams better field position and momentum on drives.
- The Rams must get off to a fast start to have a chance of defeating the Saints. In each of their 5 victories this year, the Rams have been either tied or leading at the half.
Prediction: New Orleans 27 - Rams 20
Perspective On The Rams Versus New Orleans
Pro Football Focus presents its 3 keys to watch for in Sunday's game (link).
ESPN's Mike Sando offers his "Inside Edge" on the Rams - Saints game (link).
Prediction and analysis from Ramblin' Fan:
"New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams. The Saints haven’t been quite as good on the road this season, with all three of their losses being away from the Superdome including one to the New York Jets. Still the Saints can really get after the quarterback and Kellen Clemens isn’t likely to be able to keep up with Drew Brees and their high-flying offense. If the Rams are going to hang around in this game and spring the upset they need to be able to run the ball and play much better on defense than the past 2 weeks. The Saints do give up 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, so perhaps Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham can get going early in the Edward Jones Dome. Saints win 27 – 24."
Advanced NFL Stats takes an in-depth, statistical look at the game between the Rams and the Saints (link).
CBS Sports' Pat Kirwan, Pete Prisco, and Will Brinson preview the game between the Rams and the Saints (link).
ESPN's Mike Triplett and Nick Wagoner provide analysis and predictions for Sunday's game (link).
MATCHUP | ANALYSIS | |
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Mike Triplett: The Saints are pretty fired up about proving they can take their show on the road -- and they're even more fired up about making sure they lock down the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They won't come out flat in St. Louis this time. Saints 30, Rams 16 |
Nick Wagoner: While I expect the Rams to perform better than they did last week, this is just not a good matchup for them. An offense with as many weapons as the Saints possess is capable of doing some major damage. I don't see the Rams' shoddy secondary and approach on the back end being able to keep this one close. Saints 34, Rams 13 |