Dubs' Pigskin Picks & Rams Preview - Week 10

Week 9 of the NFL season is in the history books. Although the St. Louis Rams have missed QB Sam Bradford on the field, they've played inspired football. Since his injury, the Rams have lost to Seattle and Tennessee, yet kept both games close - and the result in doubt - until the very end of each contest. The Colts are coming off a huge comeback victory against the Houston Texans, rallying from a 21-3 half-time deficit. They will present a formidable challenge for the Rams, especially on their home field. The Rams will continue to rely on QB Kellen Clemens to guide the offense, keep the game close, and give the St. Louis an opportunity to pull off the upset.

Week 9 Results

The accompanying charts present the results of my picks for Week 8 and 9, and the season totals to-date:

Week 8

Week	Wins Straight Up	Wins vs Spread	Hot Picks vs. Spread	Rams Straight Up
Last Week	10 3	8 5	3 0	1 0
Season	80 40	72 48	18 6	4 4
Percentage	66.7	60	75	50

Week 9

Week	Wins Straight Up	Wins vs Spread	Hot Picks vs. Spread	Rams Straight Up
Last Week	10 3	10 3	3 0	1 0
Season	90 43	82 51	21 6	5 4
Percentage	67.7	61.7	77.8	55.6

The last two weeks were relatively easy for picking winners. The match ups were fairly straight-forward, with few games having extremely close point spreads. As the season progresses, the strengths/weaknesses of teams are more easily discernible. Week 10 promises to be a very difficult week for picking straight-up and against the spread. The match ups are intriguing, the spreads are close in many cases, and injuries are playing significant roles. This week looks to be the most challenging to-date.

How am I faring against the 93 experts Pickwatch is tracking? (link). My 10-3 record last week tied for the best among the 93 experts. Former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski remains in the lead, with 94 wins. Over the last two weeks I have gained 3 wins on him, and now stand 4 games behind in the wins column. My 90 wins is now tied for 4th in the overall standings. The chart below identifies the top 25 in the overall standings:

Rank	Expert	Affiliation	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	Prediction Machine	CBS	11	13	11	9	7	12	11	11	9	94	39	70.68%
2	Ron Jaworski	ESPN	11	12	12	12	11	9	9	11	7	94	39	70.68%
3	Gregg Rosenthal	NFL	11	13	8	11	8	14	9	10	9	93	40	69.92%
4	John Halpin	FOX	9	11	11	10	7	12	10	11	9	90	43	67.67%
5	Andrea Hangst	Bleacher Report	10	11	12	9	9	9	10	11	9	90	43	67.67%
6	Joel Beall	FOX	11	11	11	9	9	11	8	11	9	90	43	67.67%
7	Jamey Eisenberg	CBS	11	13	12	8	8	9	10	11	8	90	43	67.67%
8	Matt Bowen	Bleacher Report	11	13	9	7	9	12	11	10	8	90	43	67.67%
9	Black Tie	NFL	13	11	6	11	10	11	10	10	8	90	43	67.67%
10	Michael Fabiano	NFL	10	13	8	10	10	11	10	10	8	90	43	67.67%
11	Don Banks	Sports Illustrated	11	14	10	9	8	10	9	12	7	90	43	67.67%
12	Matt Miller	Bleacher Report	14	12	10	10	8	10	9	10	7	90	43	67.67%
13	Nathan Jahnke	ProFootballFocus	11	13	10	8	7	10	10	11	9	89	44	66.92%
14	Tom Jackson	ESPN	10	13	11	7	7	10	12	10	9	89	44	66.92%
15	Khaled Elsayed	ProFootballFocus	11	11	9	9	8	12	10	10	9	89	44	66.92%
16	Ben Stockwell	ProFootballFocus	12	11	8	11	7	11	10	10	9	89	44	66.92%
17	Nate Davis	USA Today	11	14	8	8	9	11	9	11	8	89	44	66.92%
18	Chris Brockman	NFL	9	14	11	9	8	10	11	9	8	89	44	66.92%
19	Michael Silver	NFL	12	14	9	9	8	10	10	10	7	89	44	66.92%
20	Accuscore	Accuscore	11	11	7	9	9	10	10	11	10	88	45	66.17%
21	Whatifsports	FOX	10	11	9	8	8	12	11	10	9	88	45	66.17%
22	Ty Schalter	Bleacher Report	11	13	9	12	8	9	5	13	8	88	45	66.17%
23	K.C. Joyner	ESPN	12	12	9	7	10	11	9	10	8	88	45	66.17%
24	Michael David Smith	PFT	12	12	10	9	8	11	8	10	8	88	45	66.17%
25	Zach Kruse	Bleacher Report	10	12	8	9	8	11	11	12	7	88	45	66.17%

How did my weekly "Hot Picks Versus The Spread" fare? Kansas City, Carolina, and New England all won and covered the spread. My "hot picks" record for the week: 3-0. Overall, my "hot picks" record for the season is 21-6. My hot picks are three selections each week against the spread. The picks are determined by watching for spreads that do not seem realistic relative to other spreads in any particular week. They are the three picks I feel most strongly about in picking against the spread.

Week 10 Picks

For reference, the accompanying chart presents the straight-up, against the spread, and over/under records for all 32 NFL teams, after Week 9:

NFL RANKINGS

Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away Arizona Cardinals 4-4-0 3-1-0 1-3-0 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 3-5-0 1-3-0 2-2-0 Atlanta Falcons 2-6-0 2-2-0 0-4-0 2-6-0 2-2-0 0-4-0 5-3-0 4-0-0 1-3-0 Baltimore Ravens 3-5-0 2-1-0 1-4-0 4-4-0 3-0-0 1-4-0 2-5-1 0-3-0 2-2-1 Buffalo Bills 3-6-0 2-3-0 1-3-0 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 5-3-1 2-3-0 3-0-1 Carolina Panthers 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 3-4-1 1-3-0 2-1-1 Chicago Bears 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 2-5-1 0-3-1 2-2-0 6-2-0 3-1-0 3-1-0 Cincinnati Bengals 6-3-0 4-0-0 2-3-0 5-3-1 4-0-0 1-3-1 5-4-0 2-2-0 3-2-0 Cleveland Browns 4-5-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0 4-4-1 2-2-1 2-2-0 Dallas Cowboys 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 7-2-0 4-1-0 3-1-0 4-5-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 Denver Broncos 7-1-0 5-0-0 2-1-0 4-4-0 3-2-0 1-2-0 8-0-0 5-0-0 3-0-0 Detroit Lions 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 5-3-0 4-0-0 1-3-0 Green Bay Packers 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 4-4-0 3-1-0 1-3-0 4-4-0 1-3-0 3-1-0 Houston Texans 2-6-0 1-3-0 1-3-0 1-7-0 0-4-0 1-3-0 5-3-0 4-0-0 1-3-0 Indianapolis Colts 6-2-0 3-1-0 3-1-0 5-3-0 2-2-0 3-1-0 4-4-0 3-1-0 1-3-0 Jacksonville Jaguars 0-8-0 0-4-0 0-4-0 1-7-0 0-4-0 1-3-0 4-4-0 1-3-0 3-1-0 Kansas City Chiefs 9-0-0 5-0-0 4-0-0 6-3-0 2-3-0 4-0-0 2-7-0 1-4-0 1-3-0 Miami Dolphins 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 4-3-1 2-1-1 2-2-0 Minnesota Vikings 1-7-0 1-3-0 0-4-0 3-5-0 1-3-0 2-2-0 5-2-1 3-0-1 2-2-0 New England Patriots 7-2-0 5-0-0 2-2-0 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 4-5-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 New Orleans Saints 6-2-0 4-0-0 2-2-0 5-3-0 4-0-0 1-3-0 3-5-0 2-2-0 1-3-0 New York Giants 2-6-0 1-2-0 1-4-0 3-5-0 1-2-0 2-3-0 4-4-0 2-1-0 2-3-0 New York Jets 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 6-3-0 4-1-0 2-2-0 5-4-0 2-3-0 3-1-0 Oakland Raiders 3-5-0 3-2-0 0-3-0 5-3-0 3-2-0 2-1-0 2-6-0 1-4-0 1-2-0 Philadelphia Eagles 4-5-0 0-4-0 4-1-0 4-5-0 0-4-0 4-1-0 6-3-0 1-3-0 5-0-0 Pittsburgh Steelers 2-6-0 1-2-0 1-4-0 2-6-0 1-2-0 1-4-0 3-5-0 1-2-0 2-3-0 San Diego Chargers 4-4-0 2-1-0 2-3-0 5-2-1 3-0-0 2-2-1 4-4-0 2-1-0 2-3-0 San Francisco 49ers 6-2-0 3-1-0 3-1-0 6-2-0 3-1-0 3-1-0 5-3-0 2-2-0 3-1-0 Seattle Seahawks 8-1-0 4-0-0 4-1-0 5-4-0 2-2-0 3-2-0 5-4-0 2-2-0 3-2-0 St. Louis Rams 3-6-0 2-3-0 1-3-0 3-6-0 2-3-0 1-3-0 7-2-0 4-1-0 3-1-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-8-0 0-4-0 0-4-0 2-6-0 1-3-0 1-3-0 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 Tennessee Titans 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0 5-2-1 1-2-1 4-0-0 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 Washington Redskins 3-5-0 2-2-0 1-3-0 3-5-0 2-2-0 1-3-0 5-3-0 3-1-0 2-2-0

The accompanying chart presents the format [and my selections] for each game this week: home team - away team - the spread - my straight-up winner - which team covers/beats the spread - and the outcome of the game:

Home	Away	Spread	Straight Up	Vs. Spread	Score
Indianapolis	St. Louis	Ind 10	Indianapolis	St. Louis	21 17
Minnesota	Washington	Was 1	Minnesota	Minnesota	23 20
Atlanta	Seattle	Sea 6	Seattle	Seattle	21 14
Baltimore	Cincinnati	Cin 1 1/2	Cincinnati	Baltimore	20 19
Chicago	Detroit	Det 2 1/2	Detroit	Detroit	24 21
Green Bay	Philadelphia	Pick	Green Bay	Green Bay	23 21
NY Giants	Oakland	NY 7 1/2	NY Giants	Oakland	21 17
Pittsburgh	Buffalo	Pitt 3	Pittsburgh	Buffalo	21 20
Tennessee	Jacksonville	Ten 11 1/2	Tennessee	Tennessee	28 10
San Francisco	Carolina	SF 6	San Francisco	Carolina	20 16
Arizona	Houston	Ari 2 1/2	Arizona	Arizona	24 21
San Diego	Denver	Den 7	Denver	Denver	28 17
New Orleans	Dallas	NO 6 1/2	New Orleans	New Orleans	28 21
Tampa Bay	Miami	Mia 2 1/2	Miami	Miami	20 17

Hot Picks Versus The Spread

New Orleans over Dallas - The Saints are perfect against the spread at home this season [4-0]. They are also undefeated at home, and coming off a tough loss to the Jets. They will win this game going away, against a suddenly porous Dallas defense.

Tennessee over Jacksonville - Jacksonville is 1-7 against the spread this season. Tennessee is 5-2-1 against the spread this season. Enough said.

Seattle over Atlanta - Seattle keeps finding ways to win. Atlanta has lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are succumbing to a spate of injuries to key players.

Keys For The Rams vs. Indianapolis

1. Turnovers were critical in Rams losses to Seattle and Tennessee - two interceptions vs. Seattle, and two fumbles vs. Tennessee. Protecting the ball - and forcing turnovers - will be a key to the Rams' chances versus Indianapolis.
2. Minimizing penalties, especially on special teams, will allow the Rams better field position and momentum on drives. A timely punt return by Tavon Austin could be significant to the Rams ability to win this game.
3. Containing and pressuring Andrew Luck will be vital to slowing down the Colts' offense, which ranks 8th in the league in points scored-per-game. Ball control will be key for the Rams, as a means of keeping Andrew Luck off the field.
4. The Rams OT's will have to contain DE Robert Mathis, who leads the Colts with 11.5 sacks. Kellen Clemens will need to be patient and not force throws, as the Colts have a ball-hawking secondary.
5. Establishing the run will be a key for the Rams, as the Colts' defense ranks 27th against the run. Zac Stacy will need to continue his recent success. Overall, the Colts have a classic bend-but-don't-break defense, ranking 22nd in yards allowed-per-game, yet ranking 7th in points allowed-per-game. Efficiency in the red zone will be vital if the Rams are to stay in this game and be competitive.
6. Points will be hard to come by for the Rams in this game. Greg Zuerlein must be accurate on all field goal attempts if the Rams are to stay close to the Colts.

If this game was in St. Louis, I would give serious consideration to picking the Rams for the win. The Rams will keep this game close, and cover the spread, but will lose in another hard-fought battle. How tough are the Colts at home? Both Denver and Seattle walked into Lucas Oil Stadium earlier this year as undefeated teams [6-0 and 4-0 respectively]. They both walked out of that stadium with their first [and only] losses of the season thus far.

Prediction: Indianapolis 21 - Rams 17

Perspective On The Rams Versus Indianapolis

Advanced NFL Stats takes an in-depth, statistical look at the game between Indianapolis and the Rams (link).

ESPN's Mike Sando offers his "Inside Edge" on the Rams - Colts game (link).

Coach Rick Venturi details the best way for the Rams to attack the Colts:

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Rams and Colts stat facts:

"Indianapolis has committed fewer penalties (31) for fewer yards (242) than any other NFL team this season. The Rams' 64 penalties are tied for fifth most in the NFL."

Andrew Luck against Houston last week:

"Andrew Luck completed a season-low 45.0 percent of his attempts against Houston (18/40), but threw three TD passes and no interceptions for the second straight game. For the season, Luck has 13 touchdown passes against just three interceptions, the second-best ratio in the league (4.33; Peyton Manning, 4.83; minimum 14 Att/Team G)."

Quotes are courtesy of the Wall Street Journal's game preview (link).

Pro Football Focus presents its 3 keys to watch for in Sunday's game (link).

Prediction and analysis from Ramblin' Fan:

"St. Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts. The Rams will hit the road to take on the resilient Colts. The Colts fell behind the Texans early last week but rallied to win it late, even without the services of Reggie Wayne. The Colts struggled on both offense and defense in the first half against the Texans before settling in late. If the Rams hope to win this game they will need to see the defense from their Monday Night game against Seattle as opposed to the one that showed up against the Titans. If the Rams hope to spring the upset the defense will need to pressure Andrew Luck early and often while the offense leans on Zac Stacy again. If the Rams can continue to get solid contributions from Stacy they may be able to hit on a big play and steal the victory." Colts win 24 – 21.

Jamal Collier [Bleacher Report] breaks down St. Louis' game plan against the Colts (link).

CBS Sports' Pete Prisco, Pat Kirwan, and Will Brinson share their thoughts on the Rams - Colts game (link).

Prediction from Rant Sports NFL:

"Defensively, the Rams rank 20th in the league in points allowed per game. Where the defense has struggled the most is the run game, ranking 28th and allowing 125.2 yards per game — good news for Trent Richardson. Indianapolis allows the seventh-least amount of points per game while also struggling in the run game, ranking 27th in rush yards allowed — good news for Zac Stacy."

PREDICTION: Rams 14, Colts 28

ESPN's Nick Wagoner and Mike Wells provide analysis and predictions for the game between the Colts and the Rams (link).

MATCHUP	ANALYSIS
	Nick Wagoner: The Rams have managed to hang tight in both games since losing Sam Bradford to a knee injury, but this is the first time they've had to go on the road. Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton should have big days, and though the Rams should have some success running the ball, the Colts should be able to rush the passer well enough to hold them off. Colts 30, Rams 17	Mike Wells: The Colts lose this game only if they beat themselves. Coach Chuck Pagano won't let that happen after they learned their lesson in San Diego last month. Indianapolis will need this victory to maintain a two-game lead on Tennessee for first place in the AFC South because the Titans are playing winless Jacksonville on Sunday. Colts 28, Rams 10