Dubs' Pigskin Picks & Rams Preview - Week 11

Week 10 of the NFL season is in the history books. Although the St. Louis Rams have missed QB Sam Bradford on the field, they continue to play inspired football. The Rams are now 4-6, after their convincing victory over Indianapolis this past weekend. Jeff Fisher has this team playing like a playoff contender. Winning their remaining 6 games would appear to be a prerequisite for making the playoffs. The odds of this occurring are not high; however, if the Rams continue to play like they did against the Colts, anything is possible.

Week 10 Results

The accompanying chart presents the results of my picks for Week 10, and the season totals to-date:

Week	Wins Straight Up	Wins vs Spread	Hot Picks vs. Spread	Rams Straight Up
Last Week	8 6	9 5	2 1	0 1
Season	98 49	91 56	23 7	5 5
Percentage	66.7	61.9	76.7	50

As I predicted in last weeks column, Week 10 proved to be the most challenging of the year for picking winners. There were many close match ups and spreads, with significant injuries [Sam Bradford, Jake Locker, Aaron Rodgers] adding to the difficulty. In addition, the last remaining teams without a victory [Jacksonville and Tampa Bay] pulled off upsets on the weekend. 8-6 picking straight-up turned out to be a fine result, given the circumstances. 9-5 versus the spread was an outstanding result, given the parity inherent in last weeks games. Week 11 promises to be more difficult than Week 10. 13 of the 15 games have point spreads that are less than a touchdown. Achieving 10 wins - straight-up or against the spread - will be a remarkable achievement this week.

How am I faring against the 93 experts Pickwatch is tracking? (link). My 8-6 record was enough to keep pace with most of the leaders. Former NFL quarterback Ron Jaworski remains in the lead, with 103 wins. My 98 wins is tied for 6th in the overall standings, 5 behind the leader. The chart below identifies the top 25 in the overall standings:

Rank	Expert	Affiliation	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	Ron Jaworski	ESPN	11	12	12	12	11	9	9	11	7	9	103	44	70%
2	Gregg Rosenthal	NFL	11	13	8	11	7	14	9	10	9	8	100	47	68%
3	Prediction Machine	CBS	11	13	11	9	7	12	11	11	9	6	100	47	68%
4	Andrea Hangst	Bleacher Report	10	11	12	9	9	9	10	11	9	9	99	48	67%
5	Black Tie	NFL	13	11	6	11	10	11	10	10	8	9	99	48	67%
6	Matt Smith	NFL	10	12	7	9	10	11	11	11	8	9	98	49	67%
7	Nate Davis	USA Today	11	14	8	8	9	11	9	11	8	9	98	49	67%
8	John Halpin	FOX	9	11	11	10	7	12	10	11	9	8	98	49	67%
9	Joel Beall	FOX	11	11	11	9	9	11	8	11	9	8	98	49	67%
10	Chris Law	NFL	12	11	7	11	8	11	8	11	8	10	97	50	66%
11	Accuscore	Accuscore	11	11	7	9	9	10	10	11	10	9	97	50	66%
12	Tom Jackson	ESPN	10	13	11	7	7	10	12	10	9	8	97	50	66%
13	Khaled Elsayed	ProFootballFocus	11	11	9	9	8	12	10	10	9	8	97	50	66%
14	Ryan Wilson	CBS	12	12	9	9	8	10	10	10	6	10	96	51	65%
15	Steve Mariucci	NFL	12	13	8	8	8	10	10	10	8	9	96	51	65%
16	Rick Drummond	ProFootballFocus	8	12	10	10	9	11	9	12	7	8	96	51	65%
17	Pete O'Brien	USA Today	12	11	10	9	8	10	10	11	7	8	96	51	65%
18	Ben Stockwell	ProFootballFocus	12	11	8	11	7	11	10	10	9	7	96	51	65%
19	Matt Bowen	Bleacher Report	11	13	9	7	8	12	11	10	8	7	96	51	65%
20	Chris Brockman	NFL	9	14	11	9	8	10	11	9	8	7	96	51	65%
21	Michael Silver	NFL	12	14	9	9	8	10	10	10	7	7	96	51	65%
22	Jamey Eisenberg	CBS	11	13	12	8	8	9	10	11	8	6	96	51	65%
23	Michael Fabiano	NFL	10	13	8	10	10	11	10	10	8	6	96	51	65%
24	Don Banks	Sports Illustrated	11	14	10	9	8	10	9	12	7	6	96	51	65%
25	Dave Damashek	NFL	9	11	7	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	95	52

How did my weekly "Hot Picks Versus The Spread" fare? Seattle and New Orleans won and covered the spread. Jacksonville upended Tennessee for its first win of the season [I picked Tennessee]. My "hot picks" record for the week: 2-1. Overall, my 'hot picks" record for the season is 23-7.

Week 11 Picks

For reference, the accompanying chart presents the straight-up, against the spread, and over/under records for all 32 NFL teams, after Week 10:

NFL RANKINGS

Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away Arizona Cardinals 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0 4-5-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 Atlanta Falcons 2-7-0 2-3-0 0-4-0 2-7-0 2-3-0 0-4-0 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 Baltimore Ravens 4-5-0 3-1-0 1-4-0 5-4-0 4-0-0 1-4-0 2-6-1 0-4-0 2-2-1 Buffalo Bills 3-7-0 2-3-0 1-4-0 5-5-0 4-1-0 1-4-0 5-4-1 2-3-0 3-1-1 Carolina Panthers 6-3-0 3-1-0 3-2-0 6-3-0 3-1-0 3-2-0 3-5-1 1-3-0 2-2-1 Chicago Bears 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0 2-6-1 0-4-1 2-2-0 6-3-0 3-2-0 3-1-0 Cincinnati Bengals 6-4-0 4-0-0 2-4-0 5-4-1 4-0-0 1-4-1 5-5-0 2-2-0 3-3-0 Cleveland Browns 4-5-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0 4-4-1 2-2-1 2-2-0 Dallas Cowboys 5-5-0 4-1-0 1-4-0 7-3-0 4-1-0 3-2-0 5-5-0 2-3-0 3-2-0 Denver Broncos 8-1-0 5-0-0 3-1-0 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0 8-1-0 5-0-0 3-1-0 Detroit Lions 6-3-0 3-1-0 3-2-0 5-4-0 2-2-0 3-2-0 5-4-0 4-0-0 1-4-0 Green Bay Packers 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0 4-5-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 4-5-0 1-4-0 3-1-0 Houston Texans 2-7-0 1-3-0 1-4-0 2-7-0 0-4-0 2-3-0 6-3-0 4-0-0 2-3-0 Indianapolis Colts 6-3-0 3-2-0 3-1-0 5-4-0 2-3-0 3-1-0 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 Jacksonville Jaguars 1-8-0 0-4-0 1-4-0 2-7-0 0-4-0 2-3-0 5-4-0 1-3-0 4-1-0 Kansas City Chiefs 9-0-0 5-0-0 4-0-0 6-3-0 2-3-0 4-0-0 2-7-0 1-4-0 1-3-0 Miami Dolphins 4-5-0 2-2-0 2-3-0 4-5-0 2-2-0 2-3-0 5-3-1 2-1-1 3-2-0 Minnesota Vikings 2-7-0 2-3-0 0-4-0 4-5-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 6-2-1 4-0-1 2-2-0 New England Patriots 7-2-0 5-0-0 2-2-0 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 4-5-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 New Orleans Saints 7-2-0 5-0-0 2-2-0 6-3-0 5-0-0 1-3-0 4-5-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 New York Giants 3-6-0 2-2-0 1-4-0 3-6-0 1-3-0 2-3-0 5-4-0 3-1-0 2-3-0 New York Jets 5-4-0 4-1-0 1-3-0 6-3-0 4-1-0 2-2-0 5-4-0 2-3-0 3-1-0 Oakland Raiders 3-6-0 3-2-0 0-4-0 6-3-0 3-2-0 3-1-0 3-6-0 1-4-0 2-2-0 Philadelphia Eagles 5-5-0 0-4-0 5-1-0 5-5-0 0-4-0 5-1-0 6-4-0 1-3-0 5-1-0 Pittsburgh Steelers 3-6-0 2-2-0 1-4-0 3-6-0 2-2-0 1-4-0 3-6-0 1-3-0 2-3-0 San Diego Chargers 4-5-0 2-2-0 2-3-0 5-3-1 3-1-0 2-2-1 4-5-0 2-2-0 2-3-0 San Francisco 49ers 6-3-0 3-2-0 3-1-0 6-3-0 3-2-0 3-1-0 5-4-0 2-3-0 3-1-0 Seattle Seahawks 9-1-0 4-0-0 5-1-0 6-4-0 2-2-0 4-2-0 5-5-0 2-2-0 3-3-0 St. Louis Rams 4-6-0 2-3-0 2-3-0 4-6-0 2-3-0 2-3-0 8-2-0 4-1-0 4-1-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-8-0 1-4-0 0-4-0 3-6-0 2-3-0 1-3-0 5-4-0 3-2-0 2-2-0 Tennessee Titans 4-5-0 2-3-0 2-2-0 5-3-1 1-3-1 4-0-0 6-3-0 4-1-0 2-2-0 Washington Redskins 3-6-0 2-2-0 1-4-0 3-6-0 2-2-0 1-4-0 6-3-0 3-1-0 3-2-0

The accompanying chart presents the format - and my selections - for each game this week: home team - away team - the spread - my straight-up winner - which team covers/beats the spread - and the outcome of the game:

Home	Away	Spread	Straight Up	Vs. Spread	Score
Tennessee	Indianapolis	Indy 3	Indianapolis	Indianapolis	23 20
Buffalo	NY Jets	Pick	NY Jets	NY Jets	23 17
Chicago	Baltimore	Chi 2 1/2	Chicago	Chicago	21 16
Cincinnati	Cleveland	Cin 5 1/2	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	23 17
Houston	Oakland	Hou 6 1/2	Houston	Oakland	21 17
Jacksonville	Arizona	Ari 6 1/2	Arizona	Arizona	21 14
Philadelphia	Washington	Phi 3 1/2	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	27 23
Pittsburgh	Detroit	Det 1	Detroit	Detroit	23 17
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	Atl 1	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	20 14
Miami	San Diego	Mia 1 1/2	San Diego	San Diego	23 20
New Orleans	San Francisco	NO 3	New Orleans	New Orleans	23 19
Seattle	Minnesota	Sea 13 1/2	Seattle	Seattle	30 14
NY Giants	Green Bay	NY 6	NY Giants	Green Bay	20 17
Denver	Kansas City	Den 7 1/2	Denver	Kansas City	28 24
Carolina	New England	Car 1	Carolina	Carolina	24 21

Hot Picks Versus The Spread

Seattle over Minnesota - Seattle keeps rolling along, and is 12-0 in its last dozen home games. The injury to Christian Ponder does not help the Vikings cause. The Seahawks will be welcoming back Percy Harvin to the lineup.

Detroit over Pittsburgh - Detroit is playing sound football, coming off victories against Chicago and Dallas. Pittsburgh has been wildly inconsistent, with a 2-2 record at home.

Cincinnati over Cleveland - The Bengals are 4-0 against the spread at home this season. After starting 6-2, the Bengals lost their last two games - to Miami and Baltimore - by a combined 5 points.

Can The Rams Make The Playoffs?

The St. Louis Rams have a bye this week. Normally, I would be previewing the Rams' upcoming game in this space. Instead, let's briefly take a look at the Rams' remaining schedule:

Week	Opponent	Home/Away
12	Chicago	Home
13	San Francisco	Away
14	Arizona	Away
15	New Orleans	Home
16	Tampa Bay	Home
17	Seattle	Away

As Ryan Van Bibber pointed out in "Rams By The Numbers" (link), the Rams have a daunting task ahead of them over the remainder of their schedule:

"Opponents over the next six games have an average DVOA of 15.6 percent, making it the toughest remaining schedule of any team."

Given the tie-breakers, records, and circumstances in the NFC at present, the Rams would likely have to win all of their remaining games to be in consideration for a playoff spot. Although anything is possible - and I will not shut the door on the playoffs until the Rams are mathematically eliminated - the chances of the Rams making the playoffs are less than 10%. I'm not too worried about making the playoffs this year. I just want to see this young team perform to the best of their abilities, gain confidence and experience, and create enough momentum to be a force - and playoff contender - in 2014. The goal for the Rams should be continuing to show steady improvement.

Dubs' Pigskin Picks still has some prognosticating to do for the 6 remaining Rams games. The games against Chicago, Arizona, and Tampa Bay are all winnable. I will be picking the Rams to win all 3. Seattle, San Francisco, and New Orleans will all be formidable challenges for the Rams. I will be picking against the Rams in all 3 of those games. That would put the Rams at 7-9 for the season, although 8-8 is not out of the realm of possibility. Finishing the season on a high note [5-2 record] would create a lot of momentum heading into next season.

Can the Rams run the table and make the playoffs? Miracles do happen...

Final Minute of the "Miracle on Ice" (via Railfan2103)