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Lance Kendricks' rookie season in perspective

Lance Kendricks looks poised for a big season. The St. Louis Rams rookie tight end led all rookies during the preseason with 11 receptions and 3 touchdowns. He was second in receiving yards with 155, just two less than Julio Jones. If you paid attention in April, then you do not need my hackneyed effort to juxtapose Jones, Kendricks and the story of the Rams' draft. What can the Rams expect from Kendricks this season?

Go ahead and take a stab at the predictions in ram_rod's community  projection post. Also, I should say right now, after that intro, that I do not expect Kendricks to compare to Julio Jones, though I do think the WIsconsin product will be a very good tight end. 

Some historical analysis after the jump.

A good baseline for Kendricks, based on what we saw in the preseason and similar offenses, is 40 receptions. Daniel Fells had 41 receptions for the Rams last year.

Since 1990, fifteen rookie tight ends have caught more than 40 passes. The list:

Games Receiving
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm G GS Rec ▾ Yds Y/R TD Y/G
1 Jeremy Shockey 2002 22 1-14 NYG 15 14 74 894 12.08 2 59.6
2 John Carlson 2008 24 2-38 SEA 16 9 55 627 11.40 5 39.2
3 Cam Cleeland 1998 23 2-40 NOR 16 16 54 684 12.67 6 42.8
4 Jermaine Gresham 2010 22 1-21 CIN 15 10 52 471 9.06 4 31.4
5 Dustin Keller 2008 24 1-30 NYJ 16 6 48 535 11.15 3 33.4
6 Tony Moeaki 2010 23 3-93 KAN 15 15 47 556 11.83 3 37.1
7 Aaron Hernandez 2010 21 4-113 NWE 14 7 45 563 12.51 6 40.2
8 Zach Miller 2007 22 2-38 OAK 16 16 44 444 10.09 3 27.8
9 Tony McGee 1993 22 2-37 CIN 15 15 44 525 11.93 0 35.0
10 Rob Gronkowski 2010 21 2-42 NWE 16 11 42 546 13.00 10 34.1
11 Ken Dilger 1995 24 2-48 IND 16 13 42 635 15.12 4 39.7
12 Alex Smith 2005 23 3-71 TAM 16 10 41 367 8.95 2 22.9
13 Freddie Jones 1997 23 2-45 SDG 13 8 41 505 12.32 2 38.8
14 Pete Mitchell 1995 24 4-122 JAX 16 5 41 527 12.85 2 32.9
15 Eric Johnson 2001 22 7-224 SFO 16 14 40 362 9.05 3 22.6
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/3/2011.

Spring time for tight ends? Notice that 4 rookie tight ends topped 40 catches last year. Jermaine Gresham was the only TE take in the first round. Tony Moeaki, a third-round pick, and Kendricks get compared with each other some.

Most obvious on this list, however, are Bill Belichick's double tight end threat, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Separated by just 3 receptions, Gronk and Hernandez also shared similar yards per catch totals. Gronk's 10 touchdowns tied him with such luminaries as Antonio Gates and Mercedes Lewis for the most TDs by a TE. 

Supposedly, the New England pattern is exactly what McDaniels wants to emulate in St. Louis this year. Michael Hoomanawanui's role in those plans might be compromised given his injury situation. With or without Hoomanawanui, quarterback Sam Bradford made it perfectly clear that he plans to pass to Kendricks this year. A reduced role for Uh Oh probably means more scores for the rookie. 

For more on the 2-TE sets, be sure to back and read 3k's extensive look in the Playbook Projector

If 40 receptions is a good floor, what is a good ceiling? Shockey was the Giants' number two receiver in 2002, after Amani Toomer. The ceiling for Kendricks' numbers is lowered because the Rams have more receiving options and appear likely to spread the ball out more to guys like Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson, Mike Sims-Walker, etc. 

By the way, no tight end has ever won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.