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Mel Kiper's mock draft and conventional wisdom

In his first mock draft of the year, Mel Kiper, he of the great hair, made Alabama WR Julio Jones the St. Louis Rams pick at 14th overall. Kiper wasn't the first draft pundit mocking Jones to the Rams and he won't be the last pundit to do so. With such an obvious need as the Rams' have at wide receiver, it's easy to see why conventional wisdom is forming around that pick. 

In this case, I'd personally love to see conventional wisdom rule the day. However, it's not so easy as it was last year at this time when it was basically a 50-50 proposition as to who the Rams would draft, between Sam Bradford and Ndamukong Suh

Thirteen picks will be off the board before the Rams get to decide on their first round selection. Given the difference between Jones and the next tier of wide receivers, not to mention the league's ever increasing emphasis on the pass, it's very likely that Jones could be gone by the time #14 rolls around for the Rams. If A.J. Green is the first overall pick - he could easily be - then Jones will almost certainly be picked by a receiver-needy team like Cincinnati or Cleveland. 

A couple more prominent mock drafts out this week have the Rams picking the Crimson Tide receiver: Over at CBS/NFL Draft Scout and at Walter Football, both sites that I personally have a lot of respect for. The lesson: don't get too many of your hopes tied up in Jones.