While I've been reading VEB for quite some time now, this is my first post, so hello to everyone!

I decided to take an in-depth look at how Chris Duncan has been hitting so far this season, to see if I could uncover anything that would explain his loss of power.

I was expecting to see a list of bad omens; surprisingly , the numbers are telling a good story about Duncan at the moment.

Lets start off with a primer:
Duncan was, in a the past, a huge power producer.
His Isolated power, or ISO(ISO = SLG-AVG)for '07 and '06, was .221 and .296, respectively. That includes his injury-riddled second half of last season; his ISO for the first half of '07 was .259. To put this in perspective, Pujols' ISO last season was .241, and David Ortiz's was .289. That's some lofty company. When Duncan is hitting, he hits for BIG TIME power.

Thus far into the season, his numbers are: .258/.375/.398, with an ISO of .140, which is slightly above Skip Schumaker-type power levels.
So, this tells us what we already know: he's not hitting for much power anymore. But is it just bad luck, or something else?

So far this season, he has an extremely high walk rate of 17.6%, well above his career average. He is also striking out a 19.4% clip, which is below his career average. This would lend to the belief that he is seeing the ball well.

His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) tells a lot of the story. It is currently .297; that would not be telling normally (since the ML average is usually around .300) but Duncan has a 24% line drive rate thus far in the season, which is very good.  Since line drives go for hits more than any other type of batted ball, his BABIP should be sustainable around the .320 mark or so. (For comparison, Duncan has BABIP marks of .317 and .329, in the '06 and '07 seasons, respectively, with line drive rates of 20% both seasons.)
He is also elevating the ball at a normal rate, despite what our eyes are telling us; he currently has a groundball percentage of 42%, which is right in line with his career rate.

Basically, what all this tells me are 2 things: Duncan has hit into some bad luck so far, and he is due to a regression to the mean of his career (~.230 ISO) given the good peripheral stats.

Does this mean he will definitely go back to his former level? No. That hernia and the operation that followed could have done some serious damage to his swing; all I'm saying is, given the stats so far, there is a good chance he will go back to his former self. So everyone who is gung-ho about trading Duncan, hold off just a little while longer. Besides, why would we want to trade him in the absolute valley of his career? Makes no sense; we wouldn't get any return on him. Would be nice to get him off the field, though. The numbers aren't so kind to him there.

We've all heard the buildup of optimism about Al Saunders, so I think it would be beneficial to take a closer look at exactly how his coaching has influenced his teams.

I'm going to spend the most time on his stint with the Chiefs; I think it is the best sample of his abilities. I'll explain below.

Saunders was first seen in St. Louis in the legendary 1999 season, where he served as the WR coach. As I'm sure you all know, that team possessed one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history:

After the '99 season, Martz was promoted to HC, and Saunders acquired the position of Assistant HC. In 2000, the offense was even better than in '99, and the Greatest Show proceeded to demolish the league once again:

In those two years, the offense scored a cumulative 1066 points. Now that was definitely Mad Mike's offense, but the presence of Saunders should not be overlooked. He is still respected among the veterans here for his work during those years.

Saunders' first stint as an OC came in Kansas City in 2001, when Dick Vermeil came back from retirement to be the head coach of the Chiefs. Here are the offense's numbers for his tenure with them: (note that 2000 was before his arrival; it's included for comparison)

In 2001, the new regime took control and production suffered, but that's not unexpected; the team had entirely new coaches, systems, and players. That year Elvis Grbac gave way to Trent Green at QB, and Tony Richardson to Priest Holmes at RB.

The period 0f 2002-2005 was exemplary; the Chiefs were the No. 1 offense in the NFL during that span. The four years preceding 2000, the offensive ranks in PPG were 8th('99), 14th('98), 5th('97), and 24th('96). The Chiefs' average offensive rank during the 5 year span before Saunders' arrival was 12th; their average rank during Saunders' 5 year term was 5th.

Needless to say, the offense was better under Saunders than under the previous leadership. Saunders definitely benefited from having a great group of core players, including Trent Green, Priest Holmes, and Larry Johnson in their primes; however, it does take a great offensive mind to make a team operate at that level for a sustained amount of time.

I also took note of the better balance between passing and rushing yards. Saunders is known to prefer a very balanced attack, with a timing-based passing system and a versatile, "three-dimensional" back to round it out. Sounds like a tight fit for Bulger and Jackson, if only Jackson could get that third dimension by learning how to block effectively.

After his time in Kansas City, Saunders migrated to the Washington Redskins, as the OC under Joe Gibbs. His time there was not nearly as prolific as his earlier ventures. In fact, the numbers for his two years there are quite pedestrian:

In this case, however, I don't think the numbers tell the whole story. In Kansas City, Saunders was given latitude to build the offense to his specifications. In Washington, however, there have been rumors that Gibbs exerted more influence over the offense than Saunders would have liked. It also seems that the personnel that Saunders had to work with did not fit his offensive philosophy, i.e. an accurate, timing-based QB and a versatile RB. Hopefully, these two years will prove to be a blip on an otherwise outstanding offensive career.

I am very excited about this hiring; I believe it brings some much needed credibility back to the offense. Saunders has a pedigree that few can match, and given his past experience with the Rams, the fit is perfect.