Mock Draft of the Week: Linebacker edition

by VanRam on Mar 7, 2008 2:55 PM CST in News Comment 10 comments

Update [2008-3-7 15:58:30 by VanRam]: The Rams made another one of those minor moves, resigning Brandon Gorin today. Key word: depth.

There are no shortage of mock drafts out there. You can spend hours looking at them all and walk away with nothing more than a headache. Stop the madness. Breathe.

This week's mock draft comes from Draft Tek, and it's a doozy. Rather than rely on pundit alone, Draft Tek uses a computer simulation model that accounts for team needs, player evaluations, etc.

Round 1
#2 - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
Round 2
#34 - Quentin Groves, OLB, Auburn
Round 3
#66 - Earl Bennett, WR, Venderbilt
Round 4
#98 - Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Round 5
#130 - Josh Barrett, SS, Arizona State
Round 6
#162 - Jonathan Goff, ILB, Vanderbilt
#171 Michael Grant, FS, Arkansas
Round 7
#207 - Kevin O'Connell, QB, San Diego State
Only two picks that aren't defensive players. I don't see it playing out this way. I think they'll try to take an offensive tackle in either the second or third round.

First Day
The first round pick, at this point, is probably worthy of long, long discussion itself. The more I read about Gholston, the more I'm okay with that pick, but I can't help but wonder what could have been with Chris Long (or Jake). Quentin Groves is an interesting option. A college DE who seems perfect for a move to OLB in the NFL. Draft Scout compares him favorably to Dallas OLB DeMarcus Ware. And his NFL.com profile calls him "one of the most disruptive backfield penetrators in the 2008 NFL Draft." Oh my. He would certainly give the Rams a threatening rusher in a 3-4.

Earl Bennett's 40 time at the Combine was 4.48, putting him among the top WRs at that task. He's the SEC's all-time leading receiver, even after leaving after his junior year. There are concerns about his athleticism in the pros, and he might not be the speed threat the Rams are really looking for.

Day Two
CB Patrick Lee is fast and physical, but may need some development time in the NFL. Draft Scout noted this about his Senior Bowl performance: "He lacks the change of direction to mirror good route-runners and to mask his struggles he grabbed an awful lot of jersey." He could be a good get for special teams, but isn't Jonathan Wade our CB development project? If we take a corner, I'd almost rather take one in the first three rounds. SS Josh Barrett could be a steal. He had a great 2006 season, but was inconsistent this season, even getting benched. Goff's a run stuffer, who could have real upside if the reports of his top notch work ethic are accurate. Would be a GREAT 6th round pick, but he might not be there at that point after a strong combine. Draft Scout has him as a 4th rounder. Michael Grant could be another potential late round steal, if he's still there. He plays both CB and FS, and is fast, fast, fast. The QB pick in the final round is interesting. O'Connell might benefit with time as a Bulger/Green understudy. He burned my alma mater, Wyoming, this last season with some pro-like poise in the pocket. His stock has been rising with each successive event and the possibility of finding the Rams QB of the future in the late rounds is the stuff NFL legends are made of. His NFL confirms the man on the rise thing too. Just reading that, I'd be happy to grab him in the fifth round.

There's the first mock draft of the week. Here, the Rams meet most of their needs, but the absence of any offensive lineman is awfully conspicuous. I just don't see how can pass up on that position.

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Awesome job

bringing in Draft Tek to the discussion. I think it is THE most fun draft "mocker" out there because of the simulation aspect. It updates about every 3 or 4 days due to all the little signings teams make and takes them into account and spits out entirely different scenarios. I have been unhealthily following Draft Tek the last 3 weeks and it comes up with some of the coolest outcomes for the Rams. I think the entire staff of guys at Rams Park should check it out only because it has so many different unique and fairly accurate generations. It presents a myriad of possibilities and gets you thinking outside the box a little bit.
The more I think about it, the more I would want the Rams to use the first 2 choices on D because it's such a deep defensive draft with so much talent. I am one of the few still in favor of Dorsey because you could still move Carriker to an end and then cover his shortcomings with a stud OLB (i.e. Groves). The biggest problem the Rams are going to have with that second pick will be soooo many tempting choices of quality starter players that might not be their highest source of need (i.e. Dan Connor, Kenny Phillips). I am torn on what to do.
My hope and prayers is that the staff goes with proven sure fire starter type players with the first 4 picks (all in the top 100). There is NO ROOM for project picking (i.e. John Wade, Jon Alston, Dominique Byrd) in the 3rd and 4th rounds AT ALL. Linehan's staff had their chance and the time has come and gone. You wanna get cute? Get cute in Round 7. Chances are, we will have a couple of decent compensary picks due to the free agents. I repeat to you assholes at Rams Park: NO PROJECT PICKING UNTIL THE 7th ROUND!
I am completely insane because the draft is like 50 days away and I am just as big of Cards fan (big ups Viva El Birdos and Cardinals Diaspora!), but for some reason, I feel like this draft (done correctly) could put us in the playoffs next year. The Cards, however, seem to be nothing but doom and gloom for the year ahead. If the boys at Rams Park fuck it up this year, then, well, I can't do it anymore.
Keep the dream alive!

by AmpLee on Mar 7, 2008 3:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Project theory does not exist, so who do we draft?

LDE: We have a great lde in little when healthy. This is the premier D end position. C. Long would be a backup/starter/eventually take over the position, maybe. His numbers in college are comparible with other LDE's (i.e. little and kerney).

RDE: Gholsten would be a big upgrade, however, you may not want to spend a high pick on this position (not usually done). Of course, Gholston is a stud at Leo (and therefore rde), but he has no experience in the tough position, lde. Gholsten has the strenght, size and speed to be awesome LDE. But a project at lde. (I am not denying his potential at LDE, but I hope you get my point: PROJECT)

DT: We have Carriker, Ryan and Wroten (and glover). No one in this group is a sure fire dt for the future (maybe). Carriker is not a DE in a 4-3. Forget that idea. He is either a DT in a 4-3 or a DE in a 3-4. Period. Dorsey and Ellis may be an upgrade at this position (DT in 4-3).

Note: Unless behometh NT's start falling out of the sky, and the Rams suddenly get a plethora of LB's, thier is no way in hell we can go to a 3-4 full time.

The most sure fire improvement in the draft is probalby Jake, maybe.

What I would really like is to get a Butkas at mlb, move Will to strong side, have a heathy Pisa, and then we can work with the rest of the guys.

This reply is a stress response to all of the mock drafts/conjectures.

I vote we trade down, get a good trade and the best available on the draft pick, then stock up on draft "projects": 4.5 240-260 lb/de/s. And maybe an OL.

one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer.

by chosen1 on Mar 8, 2008 2:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

(First Round) You're telling

me that Dorsey is a project? With talent like his, there is no possible formation(3-4, 4-3) that he can't handle. Dominate, maybe not, but contribute as a steady starter most readily? You bet. NOT A PROJECT

(2nd Round)
Groves is a DE that scouts asked him to play OLB. Fine. Don't put him at OLB. You don't think he would be a solid DE?! Same goes for Florida's Derrick Harvey. NOT PROJECTS

Let's say the #1 rated safety Kenny Phillips comes to us at #33 in the draft. Take him. NOT A PROJECT.

Let's say both Groves and Phillips are gone but Dan Connor is still there at OLB/ILB. He is more talented than his mentor Paul Pozelskinskylyzky who's tearing it up in Buffalo. Take him. NOT A PROJECT.

Anthony Collins is a LT that anchored a mediocre AT BEST Kansas offense that almost took the Big 12 North with a cocky turf-masked midget as a QB. He's mean and strong with great skillz. NOT A PROJECT

Antione Cason (my darkhorse favorite for our second pick) is one of the more exciting physical CB's to come out of college since Ty Law with ball-hawking ability that makes Otogwe blush. NOT A PROJECT.

(3rd Round)
WR's: LaVelle Hawkins, Early Doucett, Eddie Royal, Will Franklin (don't laugh, this dude is for real), DJ Hall, Jordy Nelson, Donnie Avery, Harry Douglas, Dexter Jackson, Andre Caldwell...NOT PROJECTS

LB's: Erin Henderson, Bruce Davis, Xavier Adibi, Cliff Avril, Curtis Lofton, Beau Bell, and Ali Highsmith. NOT PROJECTS

Safeties: Reggie Smith and Quentin Demps. NOT PROJECTS

(4th Round)

Centers: Mike Pollack and Steve Justice are two of the finest C's to have come out in the past five years. Both were rated All-American's and both have the make-up of straight up winners. NOT PROJECTS

FB: Owen Schmidt. If you don't know this dude, then I can't help you. He breaks helmets in two. NOT A PROJECT

Guards: Drew Radovich and Roy Schuening are both nasty as hell and just as talented. NOT PROJECTS

Chosen 1, if you want me to keep going on thru round 6 I will. Don't think that I am calling you out or take it the wrong way. I thank you for the opportunity for making me come with it. The point is, these players are sure fire winners as far as their college careers have gone. They have played these positions since they were freshmen and they have played for the best programs. Will they all work out? Of course not, but... they are not projects. They are naturals and winners at positions they have been playing at the highest level for the past 3 years.

by AmpLee on Mar 9, 2008 5:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Now that is what I am talking about!

Some passion!
1st of all you are probably more knowledgeable than I, but I am pretty close.
With the Rams picking second for many rounds I am going nuts.
We all have our favorites, but what do we do? Let's concentrate on the 1st two rounds.

Who do we take at 2 if we don't trade our pick? I am currently at a loss. I got the normal six guys and now can't decide between them. It is getting harder, not easier, as we progress to the draft. There is no easy answer.

# 34 is even harder, maybe. Some of your boys like kenney phillips and occoner might not be available. I have this thing about getting stud MLB and moving Will to strong side with Pisa at Weak.

Did you read the stuff on pro day for Gholsten? Do we believe cbs or the wacko at sportingnews?

one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer.

by chosen1 on Mar 10, 2008 4:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's always tough

to rummage through all the draftniks opinions. We, as fanatics, are at a loss because, in all actuality, what do we really know? We aren't at the combines or pro-days. We don't know all the scemes teams have in place. The only thing I try to do is absorb as much info as possible and look for comments on talent mixed with character. I then try to analize the players I have actually seen. I try to remember if they came through in huge games (i.e. Dorsey). I remember Mizzou playing Ole Miss two years ago and there was this MLB just attacking people. He made like some insane number of tackles and pass breakups. I kept my eye on him as the season went on, and sure enough, Patrick Willis was a stud. Now that's a small example and not really a rocket science prognostication, but you can see that the dude LOVED playing footbal.
That's why I really love Dorsey and Cason because they change games. Dorsey killed Ohio State in the BCS Championship. Cason single handedly beat Oregon when Dennis Dixon was still playing for the #1 ranking in November.
The draft isn't an exact science but sometimes finding the right mix of talent,character, and love of the game far exceeds guys with better combine numbers and physical tools. That's why guys like Sedrick Ellis scare me a little. He seems a little Jimmy Kennedy to me. How many studs were on that USC defense this year? Why didn't they go undefeated? How could Stanford beat them? I ask myself all these questions.
Personally, I have never seen Quentin Groves play. All I know about him is that he has a lot of a talent and coaches are trying to get him to switching to OLB as a speed rush specialist. I know Derrick Harvey FLA (DE/OLB) played an amazing game against Ohio State in the BSC Champ Game his junior year and then sighlty trailed off this year. Questions about character? I don't know what to think.
I DO know that Kenny Phillips was a bit of a thug for awhile at the U but, then again, who wasn't? The guy is an absolute masher and gave it his all on the field. We need that in a Rams Uni.
The point I'm trying to make is let's say that Groves, Harvey, Phillips, and Cason are all available at #34. Groves and Harvey would probably be better suited to be picked as far as need goes. But then you start to dabble in PROJECT world. Phillips and Cason are better overall players who will have an immediate impact for the team in places that aren't as high up on priority. I still say, unless it's at RB or QB, the Rams need to take the best overall surefire player at every step of the way throughout the first six rounds no matter what position. This team has way too many needs to draft high potential projects that never live up to their ability. What happens is your stuck with scrubs filling your needs later in postitions you thought they were going to "grow into". John Wade, Ron Bartell, Joe Klopfenstein, and Jerome Carter (now gone) are perfect examples of projects now filling valuable postions who can't play at levels expected of them.
My choices would go:

Dorsey alt. Chris Long
Phillips alt. Antione Cason
Erin Henderson (LB) alt. Highsmith (LB)
Steve Justice (C) alt. Jordy Nelson (WR)

All solid winners. IMO, all solid pros.

by AmpLee on Mar 10, 2008 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand

My friend who is a Saints fan use to want phillps at #10. He has since changed his mind. At 33 he would be an intriguing pick.

I still say that it is pretty tough to decide who is a project and who isn't.

But I appreciate your insight into these difficult questions.

one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer.

by chosen1 on Mar 11, 2008 6:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

draft

the personnel moves and even the public talk about personnel stuff indicates a sea change at Rams park, but I'll withhold my judgment until I see the draft.

I think getting studs for the d-line in the first two rounds, like you say AmpLee, could prove to be a real difference maker. I think we're adequate enough in the backfield (the Brown thing worries me) that a strong d-line would mean a few more wins over the course of a season. For now, I'd count a rushing LB like Groves as a d-line upgrade since it has a big impact on the pass rush.

The Rams just don't have the track record with projects to justify anymore picks like that. Talented guys with questions about their work ethic have faltered here, under the new and old regime. Barron's the best of the bunch, and still has some hope.

by VanRam on Mar 7, 2008 3:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs