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Rams D Diary 1/16 - Carolina Panthers (09 Sept.) *UPDATED: One less CB...*

 Well, this is my first diary on the site.  I've been reading for a while, since about right after the draft to keep up with news and get some fans' perspective.  I gotta say, this season has no easy predictions, except that we will score points by the boatload.
 I've decided to start a diary series focusing on what will determine the success of our season: defense.  For each diary, I will sum up some overall concerns and then look at some specific matchups.  I'm most looking forward to comments from whoever is reading this (yeah, that's you, dummy) and getting some real conversations started among other real Ramheads.  So without further adieu, the week one matchup at home against the Carolina Panthers.

Star-divide

Panthers' O: I haven't been big on this offense for a long time.  They have been very inconsistent and have a lot of holes.  That speaks well for us, and I hope we can get the year off to a good start with this game.  The focal points:
  - QB - Delhomme (and even Carr at backup) brings enough talent to warrant attention.  I still think he has the ability to win games when his head makes decision instead of his balls.  I think keeping him under pressure is going to be key to forcing Carolina to run.
  - RB - Without question, their deepest position.  Without question (also), their most injury prone position.  Foster and Williams are gonna be a serious tandem this year if (big if) Foster stays healthy.  Both should be playing with passion: Foster to prove he can bang and survive, Williams to show he's their RB of the future.  With such a gimpy passing attack outside of Smith, these two determine the Panthers' offensive success.  This is gonna be a great test for us as a season opener.
  - WR/TE - Outside of Steve Smith (who is absolutely incredible), the WR corps for the Panthers is, well, corny.  Keary Colbert and Drew Carter provide the #2 and 3 spots, presumably, but Dwayne Jarrett will be in the mix if he isn't already by week 1.  They have some other younger receivers with size (Justin McCullum is 6'4", 220 lbs., & Kevin Youngblood is an inch taller and a tad lighter at 6'5"/215), but I don't expect them to achieve anything consistent especially with a healthy Jarrett in the mix.  
 Quick name a Panthers TE.  If you did, you bested me.  Right now Mike Gaines and Jeff King are filling the gap....barely.  Gaines is pushing 300 and is not much of an aerial threat.  King, who I thought was overrated at Va. Tech, could be a decent #2 TE.  I said "could be", as in 3 years from now.  Smith is the threat, and he's almost good enough to plat all 3 WR positions by himself.  Ok, the Steve Smith lovefest is over.

 - OL - Not impressive.  They have a lot to work on, and a new o-coordinator brings a new scheme which brings a new slew of potential failures for this crew.  The inside is better than the outside.  Expect the running game to be more vertical, especially if they try to run to the sidelines early in the season.

Key matchups:

1.) Steve Smith(WR) v. Fakhir Brown/Tye Hill (CB) - How does Linehan want to play this?  Focus on keeping Smith as contained as possible, or let him do his thing and shut down all other receiving option?  I don't have a preference.  I think the Panthers' running game is more important.

Update [2007-7-13 20:8:24 by 3k]:Ugh. ESPN has a report here that Fakhir Brown has been suspended for the first 4 games of the season for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. He should be back after the Sep. 30th game against the Cowboys game meaning he should be able to play in our first game against Arizona which will be at home. Does this open up a door for ex-Tennessee Volunteer rookie Jonathan Wade to go up against ex-USC rook Dwayne Jarrett? That would be a fun matchup to watch, but one that probably favors Jarrett. In any case, not good news as Brown was our most experienced CB. Again, ugh.

2.) Jake Delhomme(QB) v. Leonard Little(DE) et al - If the Rams take advantage of the Panthers' inferior OTs, expect Delhomme to be on his back checkin out the clouds more than once.  It's hard for Delhomme to throw passes to Smith when he's in the prone position.  Good pressure in the first half should force Carolina to run hard and often leading to the key matchup for the Rams in Week 1...

3.) Panthers' ground game v. Rams' run stopping ability - I already noted the tandem of Foster & Williams.  I think if the Rams are going to win, they have to contain these two.  We'll get a nice early assesment of Carriker against the run and how he teams up with Wroten or ol' man La'Roi Glover in this one.  P-Tino should see more protection from the Panthers' O than Chillar, so expect the action to move to Carolina's right when they have the ball.  Will Witherspoon (WWII, as I call him) has to improve his vertical run tackling this year, and this will be the first step.

Whew.  Well, I look forward to seeing the poll results and having you guys tell me I have no idea what I'm talking about.  Go Rams!

Poll
What will contribute the most to the Rams having a successful Week 1, defensively?
Pressure on Delhomme
3 votes
Containing the run
6 votes
Limiting Steve Smith
3 votes
Shutting down any other passing targets besides Smith
0 votes
Putting our cheerleaders as close as possible to the line of scrimmage to distract the Panthers, causing multiple false starts, dropped passes, and delays of game.
0 votes

12 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments |

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nice diary
i look forward to your series.

and while you're at it, you should join our fantasy football league.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 11, 2007 10:57 PM CDT reply actions  

thanks
thanks for the love.
I would join, but I've been doing one league with my boys for... damn, near a decade now.  I gotta continue to give it the full effort.  I gotta have Bulger and that horse the Rams use at RB.

I'll try to do two diaries a week.  Spread the word.  Tell Coach Linehan to drop by too

Then, now, & always, the greatest show on turf.

by 3k on Jul 12, 2007 1:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

ours is low key
all you have to do is draft and start. it's not like we play for money or anything, it shouldn't take all that much time off of your hands. but if not, that's okay too. like i said, i look forward to your diaries.

btw, i think the rams beat the panthers in week 1.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 12, 2007 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

welcome
hi there 3k. glad to have you on board.

thanks for week 1 wirte up. I'm not a CAR observer, but i don't recall them having much success with the run last season. That should indeed be a good ice breaking for the new run D.

by VanRam on Jul 12, 2007 10:52 AM CDT reply actions  

Jean Claude VanRam...
What's good, bro.  I think this is a great week one primer to get the run D up to speed.  Not a huge challenge, but not a wash either.
True, the Panthers didn't have great success with the run last season (24th best running team w/ 103.7 ypg) as compared to the Rams (17th best w/ 112.8).  But look at the passing game.

Carolina was 15th with 204 ypg (by comparison, St. Lou was 4th with 247.6 ypg and a legue low 8 int's).  Steve Smith hauled almsot 85 ypg himself in 14 reg. season games, a total of 1166 yds.  Add to that Keyshawn Johnson who racked up 815 rec. yds, or about 51 ypg, is gone now.
That leaves you with a very lopsided passing attack where if remove Keyshawn Johnson from last year's numbers, Steve Smith accounted for 44% of the passing yards (again without Keyshawn).  Also, the Panther's #1 TE from last year, Kris Mangum, is gone.  In other words, if Dwayne Jarrett doesn't come into this league the way people are expecting a different rookie playing up in Detroit to, this passing game will be rather ineffective.

As for that running O, this is only DeAngelo Williams' 2nd year.  Williams and Foster combined to rack up 1398 rushing yds, about 4.0 ypr.  If the passing game proves to be even more impotent without Keyshawn, Williams and Foster will have to carry this team.  I expect it to start in week 1 when the Rams beat them down, and continue into Carolina's ridiculously easy early season schedule.

Speaking of, how great would this be for the Rams to start the season?  Week2 - Houston, Week3 - Atlanta, Week4 - Tampa Bay.  At least we get to trample Tampa in week 3.

Then, now, & always, the greatest show on turf.

by 3k on Jul 12, 2007 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

your guys' opinions
3k, good post. I feel good about week one but the sight of Steve Smith running by Jason Sehorn will forever be inbedded in my head. If a receiever can single handedly win a game it is him. I will say, though, that that was the funnest game I can remember despite the outcome.

On a completely unrelated note I need your guys' opinion on something. I was on another Ram's blog and the guys on there were talking about betting on the season (i.e. Super Bowl win NFC west champs(4:1), etc) and one stood out to me. The Ram's over/under on wins is 7 1/2. 7 1/2?!?! If we don't at least equal last season I will be very disappointed and surprised. I got to talking with some friends (real Ram's fans mind you) and we got the idea of putting some money on it to make the season even more entertaining. Numbers grew and we got a few thousand together. (f.y.i. we are kinda the dumber/wilder recent college graduates who get over hyped fairly easily). This bet is a lock right? Also, I'm not too big into sports gambling, mostly because its so hard, but the idea of spreading the thrill of added importance of one game out over a season seems kind of cool. Either talk me out of this or tell me its easy money, either way, thanks for the input.

Also, fyi, I'm only in for 5 bills so it could pay for the season tickets I bought for the first time this year. or not...

by 636thestruggle on Jul 12, 2007 5:18 PM CDT reply actions  

bookies aren't rookies
 636, as much as I would love to say the Rams are a lock for 10 wins, the division, and a first round-bye, I would put the o/u at 8.
 Our division is the deepest and tightest in the NFL.  Arizona has a talented core, the 49ers may be the most improved team in the NFL, and those wacky Seahawks still have the main pieces they took to the Super Bowl two years ago.
 That being said, I love gambling.  If it wouldn't kill you to lose the money, hey it's dispensable.  If you do put it down, I'll be behind you to win.  Hell, I'd be behind the guy who puts money on us to win the whole thing this year.  Good luck, bro.

3k

Then, now, & always, the greatest show on turf.

by 3k on Jul 14, 2007 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks
Yeah, so far there's 10 of us now. We've got 5 grand collectively which is hilarious to me. I know its still a gamble but I just feel 8-8 is more than achievable. The one thing I did notice was we stood at 4:1 to win the west and the 9ers were at 2:1 (on sportsbook). Give me a break. Not saying I would jump at this bet but you've got to be kidding me, they're twice as likely? Either way, none of us will lose our mortgage or anything over this money but this will just add a little more spice to what should be an already exciting season.

by 636thestruggle on Jul 16, 2007 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Are the Niners this years Dolphins?
I remember having to slap my friends around when they were hyping up Miami last year as a sleeper.  I expect San Fran to take over the helm as the "don't sleep on these guys this year" team.  The media will hype up the acquisitions and Alex Smith & Frank Gore's fated improvments.  I still think this team has issues.  They're not deep and any long-term injuries at QB, RB, the LB corps, or the secondary will hurt this team bad.  As I've been saying, though, I do think this is the most improved team in the NFL.  Nate Clements is probably my favorite CB in the league and I was utterly disgusted by his choice to go to SF.  Hopefully Linehan will see how good a CB can be and try to get one for next year, because I'm not huge on the Tye Hill/Fakhir Brown combo looking into the future.
Good luck on the bet, though.  Here's to hoping you win this bet so you can have some extra money to lose on others.  At least that's how it always works for me.
Then, now, & always, the greatest show on turf.

by 3k on Jul 16, 2007 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

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