Preseason
Proving Grounds: A Look at the Rams Preseason Opener
As this is my first post on the site, please stick with me while I try to get the system down. But onto the Rams!
This upcoming Friday is the Rams first preseason game, against the New York Jets. While they may not be an ideal opponent (I'm sure everyone is well aware of what happened to them last year with a certain veteran QB), they are an opponent nonetheless and are the first test of the upcoming 2009 season. With that in mind, there are a few players on the Rams that stand quite a bit to gain, assuming they play well:
Larry Grant: While Chris Draft was off the field this morning (don't worry, he is fine), Grant played with the 1st team defense. In that time, he picked off Bulger and punished Darby during a running play. Even though Draft has impressed coaches with his play and seems to be playing quite a bit more with the first team defense as of late, Grant could make a huge statement by playing well against the Jets. With both Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens appearing only marginal at best, he has a legitimate shot to make some noise on Friday and could really open up this positional "battle."
Bradley Fletcher/Quincy Butler (Any Cornerback not named Tye Hill): Tye Hill was injured this morning as well and just like Draft, will be just fine. However, he has had an uninspiring camp so far, and with Bradley Fletcher and Quincy Butler looking good, the two stand a lot to gain by playing well this Friday. Like I noted earlier, the Jets QB situation could lead to some big plays, and if it does, Butler and Fletcher stand quite a bit to gain should they be able to capitalize.
Alex Barron: This quote by Mike Sando of ESPN explains exactly why Barron needs to play well for the team to succeed this year:
Bulger tends to look very good in practice no matter what. I think he'll be fine if the Rams protect him, which depends on that line.
I'd think a good night from Barron would just be blocking effectively and most importantly not having any false start penalties, but playing well against the Jets would be a good first step to easing the minds of the entire Rams fan base. The real test is going to in the first week of the season, because he will be going up against Patrick Kerney. At this point, a bad start to the season for Barron would mean nothing less than seeing what the 2010 Draft has to offer in regards to Offensive Tackles. Russell Okung, anyone?
With those players in mind, it will be interesting to see how the Rams look for their first (semi) official game of the Spagamania era. One can only hope they come out and look good.
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What if the Rams drafted Crabtree in 2010?
Alright, this is just a little fun at the expense of our division rivals. Pure folly.
So 49ers draft pick WR Michael Crabtree is prepared to sit out the whole season and reenter the draft for 2010. Hmmm, what if...how funny would it be if the St. Louis Rams drafted him? Of course, I don't know that I'd want to the guy on my team after a stunt like this. Take the money for being a #10 pick and live with it.
Imagine, though, the guy's draft status takes a hit for 2010 because he hasn't played football in year, dropping his draft status and vaulting other WR prospects above him in the draft (weigh in here draft experts).
Like I said, this is purely water cooler stuff, but you have to admit it would be a little funny, no?
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Don't forget Mike Karney
You'd be hard pressed to find a post that doesn't mention the St. Louis Rams offensive line lately. There's a good reason for that: the Rams success this year and beyond depends largely on a tougher, younger offensive line. Of course, those five players aren't the only ones being counted on to beef up the running game. Fullback Mike Karney was signed as a free agent during the offseason to give Steven Jackson a lead blocker, taking out any defenders that might creep into the holes being opened by the made-over line.
Karney's a bruiser who is more than capable of bulldozing through opposing defenders. And he's young(er), than the last FB the Rams added, Dan Kreider, who was still recovering from serious injury issues. Statistics for fullbacks are wrapped up with the stats for the running backs and offensive line. I did find one interesting number at Football Outsiders that Karney that Karney's performance would have directly impacted. The Saints, Karney's former team, had a 28.1% DVOA on runs in the red zone last season, the fourth best number in the league. By comparison, the Rams had a -39% DVOA on runs in the red zone, second worst in the league.
More and more teams are abandoning the traditional blocking fullback, but for a team installing a power running game at the heart of their offense he's indispensable to the equation.
- Don't forget, tonight it's the Turf Show Radio training camp spectacular! The fun starts at 6 p.m. central time. Here's the call-in and listening info. Will from Rams Herd and Jeff from Rams Gab will be joining 3k and I as we get ready for the official start of the Rams 2009 training camp.
- Got a design or a suggestion for a TST-shirt? Then send it to us. If your design gets picked, you get a free shirt. Sweet!
- Camp starts in full swing Friday, when the entire roster takes the field. If you're going to be at Rams Park this weekend, BE SURE to post your reports, reactions, etc. in the fanposts. We want to make sure we have as many of our community members as possible offering their thoughts on what they see.
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NFC West position review: middle linebacker
I got together with the other NFC West bloggers to compare linebackers, this time around, middle linebackers. I gotta say, it wasn't as embarrassing as last year when the Rams LB group looked sketchy to begin with. Sure, we've got a rookie starting at that spot, but he's a good rookie. And, well...just read the rest.
In a division trademarked for its linebackers, the St. Louis Rams were embarrassingly substandard last year, thanks to poor decision making that left Will Witherspoon in the middle and arrogantly allowed an emerging Brandon Chillar to flee for greener, more frozen pastures. Addressing the situation at linebacker has been a top offseason priority for the defensive-minded new regime led by head coach Steve Spagnuolo and defensive coordinator Ken Flajole.
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Which receivers will make the St. Louis Rams final roster?
Trading ruled the day in River City...St. Louis, that is, for the diaspora of Rams fans. (If you really want to add a literary note the trades made by STL's pro teams yesterday, it looks like one team is overcoming the hobbles of dysfunction as another, one long considered to be above the fray, slides further and further in that direction.) The addition of Curry prompted the St. Louis Rams to make an ancillary move with the release of WR Chad Lucas.
Lucas was signed in March to round out the team's depth at WR. HIs name wasn't mentioned often in reports from spring practices, a reminder of his uphill climb to make the team in the first place. Barring a huge shocker, Curry is a lock to make the final roster. And with that, I thought it would be good time to update our TST final roster prediction for wide receivers.
Though the final number of wideouts the Rams is yet to be determined, it's difficult to imagine the team keeping more than six on the 53-man roster. Earlier in the month, the predicted six WRs were: Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton, Laurent Robinson, Tim Carter, Derek Stanley, and Brooks Foster.
With Curry, I think the Rams six WRs will be: Avery, Curry, Burton, Robinson, Stanley and Foster. This is a tough prediction to make, shooting wildly in the dark. Curry gives them a veteran presence, replacing Carter. There are a couple of other ways it could go, though. If the Rams find a better option for the return job, Stanley looks vulnerable. Or, Foster could become an addition to the practice squad. There are no guarantees, and the only receivers with any certainty to make the team are Avery, Curry, Burton and Robinson. Even then, I like what Burton has to offer, but he still needs to have a really strong, injury free camp.
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Dialing down the details on the remaining Rams rookie contracts
The Rams made official announcements yesterday that the team had agreed to terms with seventh round pick RB Chris Ogbonnaya and fifth round pick WR Brooks Foster. We reported both signings over the weekend, via other sources. On that news, it's worth while to take a look at which of the 2009 Rams draft picks have signed. Check out Nbr1RamFan's post for the list of who is signed and who has not. As for the guys not signed, here's a round up of what we know and expectations.
1st round - OT Jason Smith: Both the Rams and Smith have expressed a desire to get a deal done in time for camp. A contract somewhere slightly north of what OT Jake Long got last year is probably a reasonable expectation.
2nd round - LB James Laurinaitis: Again, both sides have expressed a particular willingness to work things out prior to camp. Not many first or second round picks have signed yet, and the players drafted in the slots around Laurinaitis remain unsigned.
4th round - DT Darell Scott: A deal is expected any day now. Kind of surprised nothing's been announced given news of an impending deal with Scott got the same assurance as the looming deal with Foster.
6th round - QB Keith Null: As a sixth round pick, Null's contract should be simply a matter of lining up the contract with the value of his slot in the draft. The Browns signed RB James Davis, the player drafted immediately before Null, to a four-year, $1.849 million deal with a $99,250 signing bonus on July 10. LB Steven Hodge, drafted by the Cowboys directly following Null has not signed a deal.
I wouldn't be surprised to see deals with the later round picks get wrapped up before the first two. In fact, it seems like a deal with Scott could be announced any day, leaving Null as the last unsigned second day pick. It's tough to go by last year because the Rams front office has since changed and the prior regime handled rookie contracts differently. Second round pick Donnie Avery was the last to sign in 2008, and first rounder Chris Long signed a few days ahead of several other players.
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Why physical play from Rams defensive backs matters
Since the Rams hired Spagnuolo we've talked ad nauseum about the defense's new, more aggressive playbook. Besides the pass rush that made Spags famous, one group of players whose duties will be a little different this year are the defensive backs. Under Spag and defensive coordinator Ken Flajole, the cornerbacks will play more physical, jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage along with more press coverage and a tougher interpretation of man-to-man.
That change in cornerback philosophy was a big reason the Rams surprised a number of draft pundits by picking Iowa CB Bradley Fletcher in the third round. Fletcher was one of the larger CBs picked in the draft, in terms of size and weight, and still with enough speed to stick to speedy receivers trucking down the field.
Whether or not Fletcher earns a starting job as the second CB behind Ron Bartell or in the third/nickel role - he does have a legitimate shot - remains to be seen. However, the physical style of play demanded of Rams corners this year will not change.
All of this is a long-winded segue into just exactly why that rough and tumble play from the d-backs is important. Why? Because that's the best way to contain a guy like the Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald, arguably the league's best WR at present. Don't take my word for it, listen to former Cardinals CB Rod Hood describe the best way to contain Fitzgerald (as related by ESPN's Mike Sando):
Jam him at the line of scrimmage, buying time to see the ball in the air.
"Because if I jump up blindly or if I let him catch the ball and try to break it out of his hands there is almost a 90 percent chance he is going to catch the ball."
Fitzgerald has has been tough on the Rams. In his five-year career, against the Rams the Cardinal receiver has 64 receptions, 864 yards, 9 TDs, and 50 first downs. A physical style of play combined with a strong pass rush is the only way to contain a guy like that.
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Can TE Randy McMichael rekindle past glory in the Rams new offense?
My fantasy credentials aren't going to get me invited to any champions league with a six figure kitty or anything like that, but working with a community of Rams everyday, I think we have a pretty good idea about our team. For that reason, I'm pretty high on TE Randy McMichael as guy worth having on your fantasy roster. Yeah, he's not going to have the kind of stats that a top tier TE will, but he'll be a nice get if you opt to hold off, take a RB or WR when the TE run starts in your draft or a solid back up if you have enough space to play the match-ups.
If he can stay healthy, he's going to make an impact, and there's no reason to think he won't be among the top three Rams players for receptions when the season's over, thanks to the West Coast offense and some unknowns behind Donnie Avery at WR.
A fantasy prediction at KFFL gives this range estimating McMichael's fantasy stats:
Receptions: 43-53
Yards: 478-578
TD: 2-4
Nothing to sneeze at. Prior to joining the Rams, MicMichael put up solid numbers in Miami, topping 580 yards every season between 2003-2006. In all but one of those seasons, 2003, he had more than 60 receptions. Of course, McMichael was younger then, and not coming off a year where he broke his tibia (leg).
Obviously, that's a serious injury. McMichael, however, practiced at full speed in the spring. Prior to last season, he played in all 16 games since his rookie year in 2002.
Football Outisders predicts 51 receptions, 531 yards, and 5 TDs for the Rams starting TE. More importantly, in their 2009 Almanac, they predict a catch rate of 67%. That last number is an important one. Catch rate for receivers (or tight ends in this case) is as important to their predictability and performance as completion rate for a QB. Since joining the Rams, McMichael's catch rate has been under 60%. In 2006, his last season before becoming a Ram, he had a 66% catch rate.
One other factor complication McMichael's fantasy value is Daniel Fells, last season's waiver wire addition that showed potential filling in for McMichael and an expert level grasp of the playbook in camp this spring. If McMichael succumbs to injury or loses a step, Fells could become a sleeper similar to what happened with the Eagles Brent Celek when he was filling in for L.J. Smith.
That at least gives you some food for thought come fantasy draft time.
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