An AP report at ESPN.com (here) has Keenan himself saying we've locked him up for three years for more than $1 million.  Good.  Let's hope we can wrap up this business with our other rookies before the 25th for the first training camp practice.

RotoWorld has it's minicamp tour of the NFC West up at their site. They penned it mostly from a fantasy perspective, but that's a decent way to get some insight on teams this time of year.

Items of interest pertaining to the Rams:

• They report that Torry Holt "appears to be healthy" heading into the season, which is consistent with earlier reports on Holt's status. Needless to say, the Rams need a healthy Holt, both because of his ability and his ability to get draw coverage and leave other WR threats open.
• Speaking of those other threats, RotoWorld's assessment doesn't dog Drew Bennett quite like the others. They think he'll get plenty of catches.
• Steven Jackson gets the usual effusive praise. They include a cautious notes about an injury to Pace and the precarious state of the O-line, but I think they're overestimating that threat for a couple reasons. 1) With the addition of Jacob Bell, the middle of the field should be a much friendlier place to run than it was last season with the parade of replacements, 2) while anything's possible, the likelihood of the Rams suffering an injury epidemic on the O-line again is very slight.
• It's becoming widely accepted fact that McMichael's in for a good season with Al Saunders calling the plays.

Nothing out of the ordinary there as far as the Rams go, but I did find a note about Mike Martz interesting in the review. Long time Rams fans won't recall any big seasons for tight ends under Martz. In fact, prior to last season when Randy McMichael had 39 catches, 431 yards and 3 TDs (considered a disappointment and the fewest balls McMichael has caught since his rookie season in '02), the last time a Rams TE had more than 35 catches was in 2001 when Ernie Conwell had 38 catches, 441 yards and 4 TDs.

Seems Martz has changed his tune since arriving in SF. With the 49ers, Martz plans to use TE Vernon Davis as a receiver. Here's what Mad Mike had to say:

"Instead of breaking down and head-faking and doing all these things, we're going to use his speed. And I think he understands that really well at this point."

I suppose that's a big part of their plan given that old friend Isaac Bruce has been thrust into the #1 WR role in SF. Davis will have to get around Chris Long first.

Last day of June. The summer races by and that means we're now less than a month away from the start of training camp. Be prepared, the last leg of the journey is usually the longest.

Outside of their recent interest in Barry Sims, the Rams finished their offseason shopping with the signing of third QB Gradkowski. Are we satisfied they've made the right moves? Is that all they need to/can do heading into the season?

Reading about Kevin Jones working out for teams this weekend got me thinking about any other player acquisitions I might like to see the Rams make before the season starts. I couldn't come up with much off the top of my head, so thought it would be worth a Monday morning discussion to make sure we feel like the bases are covered, or at least as covered as they can be a month out from camp.

Position by position...

Offensive Line
With Pace healthy and high profile free agent Jacob Bell inked and ready to start, the left side of the Rams line is set. Incognito and Romberg will battle it out in the middle and Setterstrom and Barron will hold down the right side. Incognito and Setterstrom have done yeoman work filling in for injured starters the last two seasons, and since they both dealt with injuries last season, neither has reached their ceiling. The Rams intend to push those three, Setts, Cogs and Barron, to their ceiling, and with a couple hungry rookies, John Greco and Roy Schuening, who in the minds of some could start right away at G in the NFL, will do the pushing. Adding Barry Sims to compete with Barron as well as give the Rams a backup OT with plenty of starting experience would have been helpful. The line is in better shape to fill in around key injuries, like Pace. I don't know how many more depth linemen that best what the Rams already have among their backup ranks will shake out, but if they do, the Rams would be wise to at least make offers.

QB, RB
Obviously, the Rams have their starting RB, and he's primed fro a big, big season. Backing him up is Brian Leonard and Antonio Pittman, with one being expected to block more and the other coming in for their straight line speed. I'd like to see Leonard use his ball skills to catch a few passes in the middle, save some wear and tear on Jackson's legs. Is that enough? Are you satisfied with the depth behind Steven Jackson? With names like Travis Henry and Kevin Jones still out there, I'll admit, it's tempting to want to sign one of those guys, but that comes at a cost. At QB, the Rams made Bulger their starter for several years with a new contract last summer. Behind him, Trent Green's concussions give him his share of doubters, and rightfully so, but the Rams seem to think he's fit and need a QB that knows Saunders' complex offense. Finally, the addition of Brice Gradkowski gives them youth with starting expereince in the third QB slot.

TE, WR
Bennett has his doubters after a lackluster season last year, and Holt has a balky knee. Behind those two, the Rams are counting on a rookie, Donnie Avery, to be a deep threat. Reche Caldwell was signed this offseason to give the Rams another experienced WR. There are those who think the Rams should add another experienced #2/3 type WR, but that's not likely now. At tight end, the Rams have a blocker in Becht, a playmaker in McMichael, and something in between in Klopfenstein.

Defensive Line
There's an argument to be made for trying to find a big guy to play tackle in the middle, a roundish nose tackle type. However, the Rams feature a solid rotation at DT with Carriker and Glover starting and Ryan and a possibly much improved Claude Wroten behind them. At DE, the future starts now with Chris Long transitioning under the tutledge of the big man, Leonard Little. Adeyanju and Hall back them up.

Linebacker
This is where, on the surface anyway, the need for additional help stands out. After losing Brandon Chillar to free agency, the Rams turn to Quentin Culberson to replace Chillar's 54 tackles. Added last May as an undrafted free agent, Culberson played in 14 games, staring 1, last season and recorded 24 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. Haslett and the team endorsed Culberson hardily when they made little effort to retain Chillar. It's a big leap of faith with one of the team's other three starting LBs, Pisa Tinoisamoa, having last played all 16 games in 2005.

D-backs
This was a problem area last season with starters Fakhir Brown and Tye Hill both missing time due to suspension and injury. Jonathan Wade enters his second season and Ron Bartell begins his fourth. Bartell's a solid nickel and we'll know more about what Wade has to offer this season. Rumors about adding a proven veteran like Lito Sheppard circulated in the spring, but that had more to do with the assumption that Brown would wind up suspended for the whole season because of a repeat banned substance violation. At safety, the Rams have a real star in OJ Atogwe, who led the NFC with 8 INTs last year. At strong safety, locker room leader Corey Chavous was a bust on the field and the Rams will turn to Jerome Carter and rookie Chris Chamberlin, who has the speed and range to succeed at SS, to spell Chavous.

Special Teams
Josh Brown, K, was the big name added on ST this year, following last year's acquisition of another leg, punter Donnie Jones. The Rams have several candidates for return duties behind Dante Hall, and draft picks David Vorbora and Chamberlin headline the non-kicking/returner additions to ST. This is an area that MUST improve, and if a specialist or two turns up on the waiver wire or free agent roles, the Rams shouldn't hesitate to make a move.

I don't know if anyone saw this last week or not, but I stumbled across it last night and have been obsessing over it every since. It's an overview/prediction for the 2008 season from What If Sports. More than just pithy comments about draft picks and free agents, they map out the entire season, from week one to the Super Bowl.

I really dig it; although, I completely disagree with their 5-11, last place prediction for the Rams. Come on, are we really goning to be worse than the 49ers? No way. They do make a good point about that brutal schedule through the first half of the season. According to their predictions, the first 7 games feature five playoff teams, both Super Bowl teams (Dallas and New England in this sim) and all with a better than .500 record.

Let's delve into a couple of their findings.

The prediction glosses over the impact of last year's injury outbreak and the return of those players to full health, not to mention the addition of Jacob Bell on the o-line. That takes something away from it. Even with the injuries last season, the Rams still managed a few close games, notably a 16-17 home loss to the 49ers in week 2, a 31-34 home loss to the Cardinals in week 5, and a 19-24 home loss to the Seahawks in week 12. With healthier starters and key additions to both the defense and offense, I think their predictions of home losses to all of those teams are a bit dire.

That said, the first half of the schedule is brutal to say the least. Since when did scheduling mandate that last season's cellar dwellers had to play the playoff teams?

I also have a qualm with their identification of turnovers as the most exploitable weakness. The Rams were the worst in the NFC for turnovers, giving opponents 37. But take a look behind those numbers. Marc Bulger fumbled the ball 6 times, losing 5, and threw 15 INTs, his worst season for turnovers since 2003. I hate to trot the injury excuse everytime I hear criticism about the Rams, but I think it's waranted in this case.

With a healthy o-line in front of him, Marc Bulger would have turned the ball over 20 times. No way. That's not to say he would never have turned it over, but 20 times? Gus Frerotte had 12 INTs and one fumble lost; Gus Frerotte probably wouldn't have played without the injuries on the o-line that left Marc Bulger vulnerable to 37 sacks, a concussion and all the other bruises and bumps keeping him off his game. (it's not unreasonable to be concerned about Bulger's recovery from last season.)

The prediction makers did have some nice things to say about the Rams, though. They project Chris Long to accumulate 34 tackles and 7 sacks. But they saved their bulk of their gushing for Steven Jackson:

Steven Jackson - Dude is a monster (in all the best ways possible). When offensive coordinator Al Saunders says that Jackson has not yet even touched his potential, our jaws drop. But, we believe him. Saunders has helped to maximize the productivity of guys including Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Clinton Portis. Steven Jackson is not just in the same conversation as those guys; he could end up being better. In the first year of the new system, we give him 1,823 total yards and 15 touchdowns.

Like any good prediction maker, they left themselves some wiggle room, and they'll need it. I don't think there's a playoff team here, but I don't think it's crazy or homerism or crazy homerism that the Rams can get to 7 wins.

Finally, here's another "what if" for the comments section. What if the Rams do only win 5 games? Does Scott Linehan keep his job? Does Steven Jackson become trade bait? Does the team start making plans to beat feet to LA?

I don't know why I'm stuck on special teams lately. Chalk it up to offseason fatigue I guess, partly. The subject of punting came up yesterday while I was talking to a friend about the Rams upgrades this offseason. Somehow, the conversation segued into last offseason and which addition made the biggest impact.

Oh, as a Rams fan, I offered the usual names, Carriker, Ryan, yada, yada, yada. My friend, a Chiefs fan, said Donnie Jones, the free agent punter the Rams brought in from Miami last spring. Touche. He had me.

The Rams sure did punt a lot last season, or so it seemed with the offense firing on just two cylinders all year. League rank in parentheses.

The Rams didn't punt that much more often this season than they did last season, but compared with the league trend though, they punted quite a bit in 2007. As for Jones, you can see his impact in the average yards per punt and the longest punt. Interesting aside, the longest punt in 2006 was just 75 yards. And of course, DVOA for the Rams punting unit, which mostly measures yardage confirms the improvement.

Punting's not the first thing that comes to mind with thinking about the 3 win Rams of 2007. Well, actually, maybe it works as a symbol: fans punted their season tickets and the season, players almost punted, the management punted a lot of the coaches....well, you get it. The improvement on the punting unit doubtlessly saved the Rams even more heartache last season.

While you wait to find out where Barry Sims signs - backup linemen qualify as big news this time of year - here's a little game to help get the cob webs out of your head from the weekend.

It's a guessing game, one I like to call "Worst to First." But it's not copyrighted or anything, so feel free to take it to the water cooler and help out those struggling officemates of yours.

Of all the teams finishing at the bottom of their division last year, and this isn't just homerism, I think the Rams have the best opportunity to turn things around this year, based largely on the fact that last year's 3 win season had much more to do with a really unlucky rash of injuries to key starters, particularly the o-line. The Rams enter the 2008 season with veteran starters at key positions. The young talent stars in key supporting roles, but, for the most part, rookies and sophomores don't have to bare the weight of important jobs alone, e.g. Chris Long has a big role in the defense but a healthy Leonard Little will be the main guy on the rush.

Let's look at the competition to go from worst to first.

AFC East
Miami, 1-15: There's really nowhere to go but up for the Phins, a perfect example of how a lack of expectations can be truly liberating. Jake Long blocking for Ronnie Brown translates to another win or two. But stuck in a division with the Patriots and what should be a much improved Bills team is no place to try and go from worst to first.

AFC North
Baltimore, 5-11:  LT Jeff Ogden retired. First round pick QB Joe Flacco could be asked to lead the offense, unless career backup Kyle Boller steps up. Miami got their lone win against the Ravens, who enter a rebuilding stage of their own. B-more knows defense though, and that could be enough to at least put Cincinnati in the cellar.

AFC South
Houston, 8-8: The Texans finished the season at 8-8, seeing significant progress from guys like Mario Williams and their new QB Matt Schaub. In the offseason, they upgraded the o-line with first round pick OT Duane Brown and the pass rush with free agent outside linebacker Rosevelt Colvin. The problem for Houston is that they play in the same division as the Colts and Jaguars.

AFC West
Oakland, 4-12: New(er) QB, new RB, Oakland's rebuilding and should duke it out with KC for last place.

NFC North
Chicago, 7-9: This could be a pretty interesting division, but the Vikings might have surpassed the Bears for defensive supremacy here. And Chicago still has that offense.

NFC East
Philadelphia, 8-8: .500 was probably a gift. Even if starters like McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy, they'll have a hard time unseating the Giants or the Cowboys.

NFC South
Atlanta, 4-12: Another franchise being rebuilt, with circumstances much more sordid than the other rebuilders.

  With less than three months until the Rams open the season within the somewhat-less-than-friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field in Philly on September 4th, I find it only fitting to not only announce, but allude to, the K Series: a week-by-week breakdown of the Rams and their opponents.

  (Author's note: Some of you may remember a truncated series that appeared last year.  Blame the Iraqi insurgency.  No, seriously, blame them.  I would have finished the series if the Al-Askari Mosque hadn't been re-bombed last year.  Thanks for that one.)

  This year's 16-part series will take each game, chop it up, and spit it out with relevant editorial and statistical analysis...courtesy of VanRam.  I'll mostly be typing bad jokes about the Green Bay secondary's hairstyles.

  The series is coming.  You can read it here.  You can control the series and the discussions that follow.  I just have to write it.

  More after the fold.

Continue reading this post »

You might not have noticed it, but the Rams special teams actually improved last year.

Yeah, really.

According to Football Outsiders DVOA, the Rams overall ST rank moved from 31st to 27th with their DVOA jumping from -4.4% to -4.3%. The return game, which should have seen a boost with last season's addition of Dante Hall, went from -13.7% to -7.6% DVOA. Hall played just 7 games, returning 29 kicks for an average of 25.1 yards per return. Overall, the Rams averaged 23.6 yards per kick return, a big jump from their 21.3 yard average the year before. While Hall disappointed to some extent, rookie Derek Stanley (another Rams 7th round pick) impressed, returning 20 kicks in three games for an average of 25.5 yards per return.

What about the return situation this year? Right now, Hall is penciled in to return kicks, but he's not any younger and therefore no less prone to injury. Cap-wise, Hall is due $1.978 million from the Rams this season, the last of his contract. To some, cutting Hall makes sense. That leaves kick returns to Derek Stanley, impressive in a small sample size, but relatively inexperienced. Of the two WRs taken in the draft this year,  4th round pick, Keenan Burton out of Kentucky, ranked 2nd in the SEC in returns in 2006, picking up 765 yards and a TD on 31 attempts. Last season, one shortened by injury, he averaged 24+ yards on 28 returns.

Donnie Avery returned kicks for Houston, averaging 28 yards on just 15 returns last season. Here's what his NFL.com draft profile said about his propensity to return kicks in the NFL:

Has very good torso flexibility on returns and also possesses the speed, elusiveness, and agility to be a good return specialist at the next level.

So, he could certainly have an impact there, but, to me, his future is toward the top of the Rams WR depth chart. Bottom line, the Rams don't really need Hall for returns, but may be hard pressed to part ways with him given his experience and the lack thereof among the other candidates.

Ok, so we talk lots about returns, but what about kick offs and punts? Those are important too. Kickoffs hurt the Rams more than any other ST unit. Last season they had a -18.6% DVOA, virtually guaranteeing opponents good field position on kickoffs. And starting the defense off already in the hole. The punt unit, much improved with the addition of Donnie Jones, had a 2.8 DVOA. Last season, the kickoff unit had a -16.0% DVOA and a the punt unit had a 0.0 DVOA.

Seventh round picks Chris Chamberlin and David Vobora are being counted on to improve special teams with their speed and athletic ability, and by all accounts they should be able to do that. Besides those two, the Rams will have to have improved play from the other members of those units, guys like Jonathan Wade, Todd Johnson, Culberson, McGarigle and Chris Draft.

ESPN has a post-draft, pre training camp feature up for the NFC West, with Mike Sando's piece on the Rams appearing today.

Concurring with the sentiments of so many Rams fans (myself included), Sando notes the team's most important offseason acquisition is new Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders. Combining Saunders' proven ability to turn out productive offenses with top flight talent like Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson instantly makes the Rams a competitive force in the NFC West.

The question, in Sando's mind is the Rams situation at WR, with big questions marks about Holt's knee, Bennett's seemingly lost ability, and a group of rookies behind them. It's a legitimate concern, and one we won't be able to put to rest until we're into the season. For now, let's try to allay some of those concerns, in bullet points.

• Holt's knee was balky last year, and he still managed to start all 16 games and make 93 catches for 1198 yards, virtually mirroring his 2006 season. He is a year older, 32 now, but has had time to recover in the offseason. I think the question is less about whether or not Holt can still perform at an elite level, but whether or not the Rams have enough other receiving weapons to keep Holt out of permanent double team.
  
• Holt's also playing out the last two years on his contract, and will be looking for a big payday when the cap-less 2010 season rolls around, potentially for a move to Carolina.
• Bennett has seen his number of catches and yards decline each season since 2004. But the 2005 and 2006 seasons in TEN, as well as last season with the Rams, featured offenses in turmoil. Back in April, we noted that Bennett, on a per play basis, actually improved in 2006 over the season prior. 
• For a rookie WR, if learning an NFL playbook is hard enough, learning the Al Saunders playbook must be truly daunting. The trick will be to get Keenan Burton and Donnie Avery familiar with enough plays to make them viable. Avery has the tools to be a deep threat, and Burton could be a decent option in the middle.
• Al Saunders also has a pretty good track record with rookie WRs. As a WRs coach with the Rams in 1999, a rookie Torry Holt picked up 788 yards on 52 catches and scored 6 TDs. Granted the 1999 team was something special, but the Rams made Marshall Faulk their top receiving threat - he led the team with 87 catches and was second to Bruce in receiving yards. Don't discount the plans to make Steven Jackson into a similar pass catching threat.
• With the o-line settled and a true blocking TE in Anthony Becht, Randy McMichael will run a lot more routes. For comparison's sake, think of what Saunders did in KC with his RB, TE Tony Gonzalez, and Eddie Kennison as the top WR. 

There's still plenty of 'ifs' with the Rams offense, too many to make any bold predictions, but the tools are also there to compete.

Want more assurance? Al Saunders' Cheifs went from worst to first in their division in 2003, and every year since at least one NFL team has done the same thing.  At least one person thinks the Rams could be that team in 2008.

I thought of something this morning, something about Brian Leonard's role in the Rams Al Saunders' led offense.

(Yes, I think about Brian Leonard while I'm driving to work.)

So far, much of the talk about Saunder's breath of fresh air in the Rams offense ahs revolved around the big expectations from Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger, and a new life for Randy McMichael. Not much about Brian Leonard, other than that he's bulking up and is expected to do more lead blocking. And that's it, right?

Maybe not. A big part of Saunders' offensive systems is creating mismatches in the middle. Getting a strong pass catcher who overmatches the linebackers into the middle of the field forces teams to cover that receiver with a safety and leave the corners somewhat exposed. That role has traditionally been reserved for a meaty tight end under Saunders, think Tony Gonzalez or to a lesser extent Chris Cooley, and McMichael will still get plenty of looks in the middle of the field. But McMichael's strength is route running, and he'll see a lot of his work down the field, behind the linebackers, similar to Chris Cooley, who wasn't often used banging around with middle linebackers for jump balls.

Another player used in a similar role, albeit not under Al Saunders, was our very own Marshall Faulk. Obviously, Steven Jackson, who compares favorably to the great Marshall Faulk, will be doing some of that. A beefier Leonard, who has pass catching skills, could also fit that more specific role well, and save some ware and tear on the Rams feature back (remember, Saunder's running backs have a history of injury - Priest Holmes, Clinton Portis) who figures to be quite an investment once the Rams get a deal done.

Remember, the NFC West features some top tier linebackers with guys like Tatupu in Seattle and Willis in SF who know how to play the game. Brining in Brian Leonard to threaten the middle of the field on a few plays, and eventually forcing defenses to react to his presence, thereby opening up more room for other receviers.