More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

DE James Hall returns for the St. Louis Rams today. They'll need him to get to Detroit QB Matthew Stafford.

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It's a game only a fan could love, the St. Louis Rams vs the Detroit Lions, if that doesn't spell excitement...

We've had some sensitive visitors from the Lions side of the ball stop by TST lately. I feel where the guy's coming from. When you're a fan of a team that's been losing season after season, you wear a thin skin. You have to. It's a position all Rams fans should be aware of, if not familiar with. That said, it's no reason to be obnoxious in the comments section. The posters at TST don't get malicious and the commentors shouldn't either. 

From now on, you get one warning for inappropriate comments, and you're banned the second time. That's it. Now, let's all go be adults in the comments.

On the injury front, the Rams should have DE James Hall, DT Clifton Ryan and WR Donnie Avery in uniform today. That's good news. The Lions have a sack rate of 9.1%, 27th in the NFL, so Hall's presence helps the Rams DL, as does Ryan's, obviously. Ryan was out some during the week with illness. 

Avery should help the Rams passing game (how many times have we said that this season?). The Lions secondary allows #1 WRs a 23% DVOA this season. What should be really encouraging for the Rams is that the RBs have a 63% DVOA against the Lions defense, worst in the league. Speaking of, is it just me, or do get the sense that the Rams aren't passing to SJ as much as they should?

It looks like newly acquired WR Brandon Gibson will suit up today as well. Will he see some throws?

The Lions will have QB Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. No rest for the weary.  

Take nothing for granted. Detroit or not, the Rams have to play air tight football today. They may be more evenly matched against the Lions, but they're still not good enough to overcome stupid mistakes like dropped passes, missed assignments, blown routes and all those things that have plagued the Rams on their 2-21 run since the start of the 2008 season. 

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

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A quick look at some cornerback stats for the St. Louis Rams underscores just what losing Bradley Fletcher really means for this team.

Last week, the Colts threw at Fletcher 7 times and completed just two passes. The third round pick from Iowa spent most of his time last Sunday, before hyperextending his knee, covering Colts' WR Pierre Garcon, who caught a single 15-yard pass. Now, that might have looked a little different had the rookie been covering Reggie Wayne.

The Rams most senior CB Ron Bartell spent the day with Wayne and got beat on 5 of 7 throws for 70 yards. Manning completed a 27-yard TD pass to Dallas Clark against Bartell too, and for the most part the Rams secondary had trouble making the shift from the receiver to the ball, no easy task with Manning as it is. It's also important to consider the QB in judging cornerbacks. Peyton Manning is one of the best, but he's not infallible.

As for Quincy Butler, the Colts completed 1 of 3 passes thrown at him. Reggie Wayne made a 7-yard grab with 1 yard after the catch against Butler.

We don't know yet who'll be under center for the Lions, but Calvin Johnson can expect to see plenty of double coverage.

Housekeeping notes...

• I'll have the weekly pick 'em poll and results from last week up today.
• Turf Show Radio is on the air tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. Central time.

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

At 0-7 the rebuilding St. Louis Rams are already playing for the future. The future starts with making 2009 second overall pick Jason Smith the starting LT.

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The St. Louis Rams playcalling baffled fans through the first half of the season. Some of that might be explained by the Rams having to deal with a sheer lack of talent on offense, while still leaving plenty of things to point to and scratch your head about. The confusion resulting from the play calling had nothing on the absolutely mystifying decision to use a three-man rotation at offensive tackle this week, working rookie Jason Smith who was returning from an injury, into the lineup with Alex Barron and Adam Goldberg.

Fans and media took the team to task for that decision. Here's Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz summing up the feelings shared by most of us:

What the hell is this three-man rotation at OT? What is this, a preseason game against the Titans?

Right or wrong, it won't happen this week because Adam Goldberg will be pressed into service at RG for the injured Richie Incognito. But it still begs the question, why are we not using Jason Smith as our starting left tackle? Especially, if the Rams are going to run to the right side so much more frequently than to the left, it'd be better to use Alex Barron whose a better run blocker at this point than Smith...or even Goldberg since Barron seems to be having problems with penalties again.

Thoughts? Suggestions?

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Rams tight end Daniel Fells and others will need to step up this week.

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The best way to spin it is state the fact: the St. Louis Rams have a really tough matchup this week against the Colts. You want a silver lining for the week? I honestly don't know what it is.

It seems like week-in and week-out, the Colts and the Saints battle on the stat sheet to see who has the best offense. The weakest link is their run game, with a -0.5% DVOA.

You're used to Peyton Manning's team being solid on offense, and the defense is holding up their end of the bargain this season too. Overall, they have a -7.0% DVOA on defense (8th ranked), with a -11.2% against the pass (8th) and a -0.9% against the run (23rd). The key for the Rams this week will be using Steven Jackson and trying to beat their pass defense against a loaded box. Yeah, yeah, yeah, broken records and all that.

The Colts should also have SS Bob Sanders back this week. They will, however, be without starting CB Marlin Jackson. 

Indy runs a cover 2 defense, which might bolster the Rams short passing game, especially if they can get Jackson established on the ground and force the linebackers up. Keep your eyes on Randy McMichael and Daniel Fells since they'll be important in that aspect of the receiving game. It's worth noting that the Colts have allowed just 2 passing TDs this season, the fewest of any team in the league. Opponents have just 7 passing plays of 20+ yards (and none for more than 40) against Indy.

What about those stats compared to their schedule? The Colts haven't played the top tier of the league; the Cardinals are the only opponent on their schedule thus far with a record better than .500. However, of all their opponents only the Titans are worse than the Rams on offense.

So when Marc Bulger says it's going to take a "perfect game" to win this week, he's only part right. It's probably going to take some help from the Colts themselves.

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson was a big reason why the Rams did much better on first downs.

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Prior to the Minnesota game, we delved into the stats to confirm what we already kind of knew: the St. Louis Rams had not been very good on first down. However, in last week's game against the Vikings the Rams made significant improvement on first downs.

Take a look back at that post linked above. The Rams, through week 4, had a -21.6% DVOA on first downs, -22.7% when they ran on first downs and -21.6% when they passed. What a difference a game makes. Through five weeks, the Rams now have a 0.3% DVOA when they pass on first down. On the run they got worse, now having a 28.7% DVOA on first downs when they run, more on that in bit.

In 33 first downs last week (I'm not counting first downs resulting in a no-play because of penalties), the Rams made gains of 5 yards or more 16 times, exactly half of those 16 successful first downs were running plays. Their first down numbers on the run are hurt by Steven Jackson's fumble on the third possession, and several first down rushes that resulted in negative yardage. They ran on 19 of those 33 first downs. Eight of those runs were successful, four for negative yards or no gain (including the SJ's fumble) and five for just one yard.

The opening of the passing game really helped on those first downs. The Rams threw the ball deep and receivers got those precious yards after catch on some of the short throws.

On the two drives led by Marc Bulger, all seven of the first downs resulted in gains of five yards or more, including a deep pass to Avery for a TD. One first down resulted in no-play because of a Jason Brown false start. Of course, that did come against Vikings' second team defense, but it did confirm that Pat Shurmur had indeed opened the playbook.

On the first down at the Minnesota 1-yard line that Jackson fumbled on, LG Jacob Bell drew a flag for holding Pat Williams. Williams had pushed Bell into the backfield and with his arms still loose, he knocked the ball out of Jackson's hand.

If the Rams can continue their progress on first and second downs, they should start scoring.

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

St. Louis Rams wide receiver Donnie Avery helped the Rams improve on their third down conversion rate last week.

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If you've kept up with the St. Louis Rams offensive struggles, one of the things constantly being pointed out is the team's poor rate of converting third downs.

Last week, the Rams converted 5 of 12 third downs, a 41% clip. That topped their season average heading into week 5, which was 31%.

What was really impressive last week was that they converted four third-and-long situations with passing plays of 10 yards or more, including a 23-yard deep strike to Donnie Avery and a dump off pass that Steven Jackson turned into a 25-yarder.

That wasn't the Rams best game for third down conversions. That came against Washington when they converted 6 of 12 third downs.

The Rams overall offensive DVOA on third down is still a mortifying -50.8%, 30th worst in the league. That is, however, and improvement from where things stood before the Minnesota game when the Rams offense had a -61.1% DVOA on third downs.

Second down continues to be the most productive for the Rams. On the season they have a -0.3% DVOA for all second downs, right at break even, league average. Running plays a on second downs have a solid 9.1% DVOA (12th best in the league), while passing plays on second down have a -2.6% DVOA (ranked 20th), not great but close to average.

I've got a post coming about the Rams on first down, following up on this one from last week.

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Three more downs of this?

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I'm going to continue digging into the stats for the St. Louis Rams today, just beat this horse a few more times before we settle in for a solid day of college football and playoff baseball. 

The Rams third down follies have been well documented, burned into our minds. Long yardage and mind-boggling decisions to have Gado carry the ball with one yard to go have made it virtually impossible for the Rams to convert third downs, much less sustain a scoring drive. 

The real trouble starts further back, on first down. Check out the Rams offensive DVOA for first downs:

-21.6%, 29th

You can read the full explaination of DVOA here, but the short version means that the Rams are 21.6% less likely than this season's average NFL team to get 45% of the yards needed for a first down. Thinking pass or rush makes a difference? Check this out:

1st down, rush: -22.7%, 27th
1st down, pass: -21.6%, 29th

There it is, a statistical representation of the Rams failure to do anything when they have the ball. Their total 3rd down DVOA of -61.1%, a jaw-dropping figure, means nothing when you can't get anything going on first down. 

If they can't fix that against the Vikings today, well, you know the rest.

When you go back and revisit the St. Louis Rams first four games this season, you may remember the the first half of those games, thanks mostly to the defense, having a little potential...before going to hell in handbasket.

Yesterday, in the discussion about the Rams DVOA, GrnGyant asked about breaking down the performance of the Rams defense between the first and second half of games. Well, we aim to please here at TST, and the finding is pretty interesting. (Again, DVOA, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is a system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average). Take a look:

Rams defensive DVOA with rank in parentheses.

That pretty much confirms what we've seen all season. The Rams defense limits opposing offenses early in the game. Opponents have scored an average of 12.5 points against the Rams in the first half of games so far this season. Green Bay was the only opponent to score more than half of their total points against the Rams in the first half of a game this season. And really, points-wise it's better than that when you consider that the 49ers only scored against the Rams in the first half of last week's game thanks to a gaff on special teams.

Now, let's break it down by quarter, with rank in parentheses.

Remember, for defenses, a negative DVOA is desirable, indicating a negative likelihood of opposing offenses running successful plays. Look at that first quarter number. The Rams defense has been stout. Opponents have scored an average of 3 points in the first quarter, two teams have been completely shut out in the first fifteen minutes (Seattle and San Francisco) and no team has scored a touchdown against the Rams in the first quarter this season.  That's impressive.

So what's the problem? Let me sum it up with another number, the Rams offensive DVOA from the first quarter this season:

-33.6% (27)

That number points to the utter failure of the Rams offense in the first quarter this season. That failure to get any points on the board early and make it a competitive event or to keep the defense off the field for any significant amount of time has contributed to the one number that really burns: 0-4.