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Rams at odds on draft consensus
One thing holding the Rams back from starting negotiations with their second overall pick (now that Miami has wrapped it up at #1) is that the front office and coaching staff is divided on who to draft, according to this report at Pro Football Weekly.
Here's how the Rams insiders' draft talk breaks down:
However, the coaching staff, especially on defense, is not on board with the selection, according to multiple team sources. The way we hear it, the coaches think Dorsey is the best defensive player in the draft and have made their feelings well known in the draft room. In recent meetings, discussions have become so heated that a prominent member of the coaching staff was asked to leave the room after piping in with his opinion of the less desirable (in his opinion) Long.
Taking a parallel with our discussion of Dorsey versus Long (or Gholston) here at TST, the reporter, Nolan Nawrocki, says that the debate centers on what exactly the defense needs, an end or a tackle. Looming over the discussion is the decision on how to utilize Carriker if the Rams take their second first round DT in as many drafts as well as the ghost of past first round draft picks like Jimmy Kennedy, once believed to be a can't miss kid himself. Without a doubt Carriker's a versatile defender, but I've never felt - and granted I ain't no expert - that he's best suited to be a full time DE. The PFW piece cites an "evaluator" sharing a similar opinion of Carriker:
Now, Dorsey's no Jimmy Kennedy; I think that much is relatively clear. But drafting him leaves us with a glaring need at DE that Carriker just doesn't fill, as has been said here before and is a subject of debate among the Rams decision makers as well.
When it comes to reporting, so much depends on your source. The PFW spin is that this is a hotly contested topic, with the potential to drive a wedge between members of the decision making team. Compare that with this post from the PD's Bernie Miklasz:
That's a far more harmonious picture, and I suspect the differing views have something to do with the sources for each writer. Obviously, Miklasz likely has more regular contact with the Rams. But there's nothing to say that we shouldn't take either report at face value.
The PFW piece also mentions the possibility of a trade, with little new info other than the Saints made a "lowball" offer and they're potentially trying to acquire TE Jeremy Shockey. However, at the end the PFW story brings up the Jackson trade rumor which I have to say is pretty dubious based on reports in the local media and the fact that they cited health concerns and attitude. Yes, there was that little bit of tension between he and Linehan last season, but Jackson's a gamer and young enough that he figures to be the centerpiece of the Rams Al Saunders-led offense for years to come.
Expect more intrigue over the coming days.
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Rams trade talk picking up steam
Trading the second overall pick has become THE Rams draft topic with just over a week to go. Yesterday there was the report from NFL.com that the Saints had carried on some "informal" talks with the Rams about trading up to #2 and yesterday Bill Devaney's appearance on local sports talk radio 1380 as teevis89 pointed out. The wrap up from the Devaney interview at 1380 can be found here on STL Sports Insider. For those of you just dropping in on this topic, the gist of it is that the Rams will explore a trade and feel comfortable that they can drop down "a little lower than Kansas City's pick" and still get a player high on their draft board.
Kansas City picks 5th, so let's say they'll trade down no further than 8th, which is where the Ravens pick...the Ravens said to be interested in Matt Ryan. With a pick somewhere between 3 and 8, they should be easily able to grab one of the top OTs in the draft. Not Jake Long, but Boise State's Ryan Clady, Brandon Albert or Jeff Otah. Obviously, that meets a need, and I can't help but wonder if the Rams brass isn't thinking since Jake Long would be a likely fit at #2, why not trade down just a little bit and fill that need with a less expensive but still highly talented, ready to make an impact player.
If they went defense with a lower top ten pick, there's a slight chance they could take Chris Long or Vernon Gholston. Sedrick Ellis or Keith Rivers are other possibilities.
Trading down is not a bad thought, especially if a trade down netted the Rams a player from their trading partner that met one of their primary needs like CB or WR, or maybe even another second round pick. What's the drop off in talent levels between the possible choices at #2 versus the possible choices at 3 through 8?
Speaking of players available, the hype machine is shifting gears and last month's top five sure things have changed a bit. Remember when Vernon Gholston wasn't considered a top 2 pick? Well, now Don Banks at Sports Illustrated has Gholston going #1 overall to the Dolphins in his mock draft. The Rams select Jake Long in that scenario, but he notes that Gholston remains a distinct possibility. Here's the write up:
It's interesting to note that Chris Long, in that draft, fell out of the top five, going sixth to the Jets. Why? Banks states that there's some concern Chris Long has already reached his ceiling. If that's the case and truly reflects the sentiments of those in the know, then the Rams could still nab Chris Long by trading down. While not though to be a rushing specialist, Long doesn't exactly seem like a slouch in that department. The talking heads at NFL.com think Chris Long can do it all pretty well, whereas Gholston's the pure playmaker.
Here's a couple more draft links for you.
Move over Alex Barron. Brown's GM Phil Savage says that Jake Long could be Pro Bowler at RT his first year in the league. While there's no question there'd be some development time on the left side, the debate about whether or not Long can be an NFL LT seems to be all but gone now. Here's another riff on something in that link, for the kind of $$ Long's going to get it could well force teams to play him on the left side. Could that be part of the Rams reasoning in considering a trade down? Getting a first round talent, but not paying him LT money with a healthy Pace still around...
Finally, if the Chiefs trade Jared Allen, it could shake things up in the draft. Since they're looking for draft picks in exchange for Allen, it leaves the Rams out, but they could easily trade their #5 pick and another pick or two to the Rams in order to move up to #2 and draft Jake Long or Matt Ryan.
Hmmm...all this trade talk is making me hungry. I'm going to go get a muffin and mull it all over some more. It is casual Friday after all, and surely "casual" applies to one's 9-5 approach on such a holiday, right?
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The Equalizer
Here's my insta-analysis of the schedule, an on-the-spot, unscientific, completely anecdotal, two cent take. Assuming the team's general health (lightening doesn't strike twice does it?), I see 8 wins as things stand right now. That doesn't sound very optimistic, but eight wins damn well might be enough to win the NFC West this season.
But stabbing blindly at a guess on the Rams 2008 record at this point isn't going to yield much in the way of accuracy. Impossible to predict, because the draft is going to change things a great deal, not just for the Rams, but for our opponents as well.
I do, however, look at this schedule and see a serious need for a pass rusher to make the d-line the kind of force our offense was just a few seasons ago. I firmly believe that adding a sack master defensive end will make this unit something of an equalizer in those games on the schedule where the Rams seem over-matched at first glance. Add to that, the unit's progress last year in controlling opposing rushers, and a stout d-line should easily narrow the spread in those early season David/Goliath games against the Giants, the Cowboys and the Patriots...and the not-so-Goliath-but-still-tough matchups against Seattle, Philly, Washington and the Jets.
Now, whether that addition is Vernon Gholston or Quentin Groves or Chris Long, I think the Rams need to go for the DE over a tackle like Dorsey. Dorsey's a stud, but tell me how good our defensive front looks without Leonard Little, even with Dorsey at DT? Beyond Leonard Little, the Rams don't have a pass rushing expert at DE. We have good players on the depth chart after Little, but none of them can be considered true blue QB killers.
Little turns 34 in October. Like running backs, life for defensive ends gets awfully difficult after 30, even for Hall of Famers. Want more proof? Check out this factoid from our field rivals/internet friends over at Field Gulls:
Little had 13 sacks in 2006, but it's unreasonable to assume he can carry the burden of being the Rams sole sack specialist at DE this season at 34-years-old. In fact, if the Rams want to maximize his contribution, they'll limit the number of snaps he plays.
If Little is lost to injury (God forbid), then who takes his place? Obviously, they can use the 3-4 again some, with Witherspoon as the outside LB crashing in for the sack. That was an effective unit, but it won't be the constant force that a d-line - 3-4, 4-3 or somewhere in between - would be with another stud DE to go with Little.
Anyway, you see my point here, right? We need a DE, a pass rushing specialist DE, more than any other need on the defensive side of the ball. Dorsey's a helluva player, but drafting him second overall doesn't give the Rams a DE to be Little's understudy or replacement should he start to show his age this season.
Now, go back and look at the videos of Quentin Groves in that Field Gulls post linked above. That kid's a stud, and would give the Rams that second DE I'm talking about here. By some accounts, he'll be available when the Rams pick at the beginning of the second round. But he might not either. The FG post suggests taking him with Seattle's 25th pick. I realize they're not setting the SeaChicken draft board, but as hype builds around Groves abilities, he could get plucked away before pick #33 rolls around.
Or he might not...imagine this scenario: Rams draft Dorsey #2 and Groves #33. Let me pause to wipe the droll off my chin. There, got it. Anyway, that would be one helluva d-line, huh? But can we afford to take a pass on a talent like Vernon Gholston? I probably wouldn't.
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Mock draft madness!
The Rams portion of the two round SBN mock draft is in the books. Here's the Rams recap:
Round 1: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State Univ.
Round 2: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
We've been over the Gholston pick plenty, and I was prepared to draft an OT in the second round. You can read the rationale over there, but Devin Thomas was too good to pass up and the best OTs on still on the board had a question mark or just weren't worth the 33rd overall pick. Nebraska's Carl Nicks would have been the guy here, but his love for house parties and the resulting ban from Pro Day at Nebraska means that some team would probably pass on him there anyway. SBN's Nebraska blogger from Corn Nation explains the pretty minor trouble Nicks got into in the comments.
Having a WR like Thomas playing with Bennett and Holt his season would be a great fit for the Rams and give them one of the most talented WRs in the draft to fill one of their biggest needs.
If this draft were to continue into the third round, I'd be looking strongly at Toledo's John Greco. He's an OT who can play all four positions on the line, and is a really strong run blocker that would be big upgrade at RG for the Rams this season.
But that's just one potential path for the Rams in the draft this season.
Over at NFL.com, their mock draft has the Rams taking Michigan OT Jake Long in the first round, with Stlouisrams.com's Nick Wagoner making the pick via video.
If you want to look at more mock drafts, here's the links to more than you can shake a stick at.
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What about Drew Bennett?
There's a lot of pressure on the Rams this season to improve on their disappointing 3 win 2007. For the coaches, the stakes are obvious, but individual players will be playing for their reputations as well. For Drew Bennett, the stakes ratcheted way up as soon as the Rams severed ties with Mr. Ram, Isaac Bruce.
Bennett's first year in the Golden Horns was marred by injury and a woeful offense. When Bulger wasn't being sacked and could put the ball in the air, it was usually to trusty targets Holt and Bruce. So now, with Bruce gone Bennett becomes the Rams number two wide receiver, an important role that figures to keep Torry Holt from a constant double team.
The question is, can Bennett be the effective #2 the Rams need him to be? He's certainly getting paid like it, but last year left a bad taste and a dubious opinion of the pricey free agent among Rams fans. Let's look at his stats from Football Outsiders (link includes a review of DPAR and DVOA):
| Year | DPAR/rank | DVOA/rank | Catch% | Yards/TD |
| 2007 | -3.3/78 | -21.5%/77 | 45% | 375/4 |
| 2006 | 6.6/56 | -4.5%/56 | 47% | 737/3 |
| 2005 | 3.4/69 | -10.8%/70 | 53% | 738/4 |
| 2004 | 23.6/21 | 8.4%/38 | 56% | 1244/11 |
| 2003 | 20.5/11 | 63%/1 | 59% | 504/4 |
| 2002 | 8.6/51 | 6.9%/34 | 52% | 478/2 |
The stats confirm what we Rams fans knew to be true last season: Drew Bennett wasn't very good. However, there's some hope in his 2006 numbers. As you can see, per DPAR (measured in points) he was worth a little more than a touchdown versus an "average' WR, while his DVOA sat just below the per play value of an average WR. One thing to remember about the 2006 Titans: their offense wasn't very good. They started the season with Kerry Collins before handing the offense over to rookie QB Vince Young, not exactly known as a pocket passer. According to FO, their offense ranked 25th in the league as measured by DVOA; their passing offense was ranked 27th.
2005 was much worse for Bennett and the Titans, as the team struggled with QB issues with McNair breaking down during their 4-12 season. Bennett also missed 3 games that season, which makes his 58 catches and 738 yards slightly better than it looks, and he was at least still something of an asset to his team according to DPAR. In the seasons before 2005, you can see what made him a household name among football fans.
The thing to remember about Bennett is that he put in lots of time as a #1 WR and did well in the role too. It stands to reason then that he should serve well as a #2 in what could be a pretty well balanced offense with a feature running back like Steven Jackson, a legitimate threat over the middle in Randy McMichael and Torry Holt. It's also worth noting that Bennett's only 29, too, so age certainly hasn't become an excuse yet.
Whatever the numbers say this time next year about Drew Bennett, they'll at least represent a final verdict on him in the minds of Rams fans. Hopefully, he makes it a good one.
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Rams vote 'no' on radios for defense
I realize baseball season occupies the minds of so many St. Louis sports lovers. I won't lie; I'm pretty excited about it too. But baseball or not, I still need my football. Football games at least never get rained out, dome or not.
Here's a few afternoon distractions to satisfy your pigskin cravings...without having to open a bag of pork rinds at any rate.
- Hilarious. Absolutely hilarious.
- The hair issue has been cut from the docket for now. Radio communication between the coaches and the defense was approved though. I don't think that's a bad move, and it should help make defensive plays as interesting as offensive plays. Thoughts?
- The Rams, for what it's worth, voted against the radios for the defense. Hmm. Not much to read into it here, as Mike Sando explains in the link above, the Rams have an offensive guy for a head coach.
- The SBN mock draft continues, with lots of good analysis, more than you get from lots of the other 400 million mock drafts on the internets. Oakland picked McFadden, and that other team form across the Show Me State picks this evening.
- The official Rams site is giving fans at-a-glance looks at the much changed, dare I say improved, coaching staff.
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Grading the Rams, pre-draft edition
It's going to be a short one from me today. I've got a cold that feels worse than a Grant Wistrom hit and don't want to be anywhere but on the coach complaining about how bad daytime TV really is.
Today, I wanted to gauge where the Rams stand heading into the draft. To do this, I've opted for the time honored web tradition of position grades. Today, we'll start with the offense, and tomorrow the defense. (if you want to talk about the hair thing, if you're not sick of it already, it's covered.) So, while I have a minute without mucus rolling out of my nose...
OFFENSE
QB- After last season, it's a wonder Marc Bulger can still walk, much less throw a football. The only person on the team with more pressure on them to improve is Scott Linehan. Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I think he can get back to his old self this season. He also has some motivation with Trent Green behind him on the depth chart, who can easily step in a run new OC Al Saunders' offense...if he's healthy.
Grade: B
RB- Two words: Steven Jackson. Hopefully, though, Brian Leonard will have grown enough as a player to take some carries and keep the Rams from burning out Jackson's legs and serve as a competent blocker. Only more injuries on the o-line or, heaven forbid, to himself can prevent SJ from having a career year.
Grade: A
TE- The Rams needed a blocker for the TE spot, so they went out and signed Anthony Becht. At 29, McMichael should have plenty left to be a playmaker at the position. But what's the deal with Klopfenstein and Byrd?
Grade: B
WR- Losing Bruce hurts, but if Bennett can stay healthy and play up to his potential this season, the Rams have a solid #2 behind Torry Holt. At 32, Holt's no spring chicken, but he played his way to another 1000+ yard season and right into the Pro Bowl with a knee that was less than 100%. What exactly do we have in Hagans, Stanley and Williams? They need a speedy route runner for the #3 WR spot. Some may argue with my grade, but Holt and Bennett (with regained form) are still better than the receiving corps on many NFL teams.
Grade: C+
OL- This is the big one for the 2008 iteration of the Rams. Pace is healthy and the Jacob Bell signing significantly strengthens pass protection on the left side of the line. There's a question mark in the middle, but Romberg, Incognito and Stetterstrom are at least interesting options with some potential. This should be a make or break year for Alex Barron, but changes in the coaching staff have the potential to help him realize at least some of his potential. Quality depth will be key.
Grade: B- (assuming health)
Feel free to debate these grades and offer your own. I'm probably more forgiving than I should be.
defense tomorrow.
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Trading down
Let's talk draft day trading this morning. It seems to be a fairly popular option among Rams fans as evidenced by the poll on your right and our community discussion of the first round pick a week ago.
There's enough information, factual and anecdotal emerging to assume that a trade for the Rams is at least a very distinct possibility. In a Friday blog post recapping his AM 1380 interview with Billy Devaney, the new Rams player guru said that he expected to get calls before and up to draft day from teams interested in moving up to the second overall pick. Notably, Devaney said that they will listen to all offers.
Yesterday, Peter King at Sports Illustrated took a look at some of the recent past's more active trading teams with a concentrated number of picks on the first day. The team that should stand out for Rams fans is the Cowboys, whose owner Jerry Jones is reportedly dying to get Razorback rusher Darren McFadden.
McFadden should be an easy get with the second overall pick and the Cowboys have what might be of interest to the Rams with two first rounds picks, 22nd and 28th. A swap of those two picks for the Rams second pick doesn't quite even out points wise. The 2nd pick is worth 2600 points, and the 22nd pick and 28th pick are worth 780 and 660, respectively. That's a net difference of 1160 points, meaning the Cowboys would likely have to sweeten the pot with a player on their roster or another pick. If they manage to sign Pacman Jones, maybe they'd have some interest in putting a CB in the deal. That's neither here nor there; for the sake of argument here, let's just assume the Rams would get a player that at least fills a depth need with this trade scenario.
That's a big trade down, and it means the Rams would not get a Vernon Gholston, Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, and any of the other guys meriting top pick consideration. It would, however, give the Rams three picks concentrated in a potentially rich area of the draft, 22nd, 28th and their 34th overall pick, which essentially becomes the first pick of the second round since NE forfeited their 31st pick thanks to gratuitous videotaping.
With that grouping, the Rams should be able to fill several positional needs from among the draft's elite prospects. They could take a CB, an OT and DE like Quentin Groves. Or, depending on whether or not they get a player from Dallas in such a trade, they could make a WR one of those three picks.
That's one draft day trade possibility.
The Chiefs need o-line talent...badly. They covet Jake Long, but know he probably won't be there with their 5th overall pick. The Chiefs and Rams could swap the 2nd and 5th picks, and to even things out getting the Chiefs to throw in their second round pick, 36th overall, would almost even it out points wise. The Rams should be able to get Vernon Gholston with the fifth pick and another high pick int he second round should net them another blue chip prospect ready to play in 2008.
The scenario with the Chiefs makes the most sense, in that the Rams still get one of the home run picks they're looking for early in the draft, while adding another high second round pick. You have to wonder if all the hype the team is giving Jake Long doesn't have some ulterior motive...
The scenario with the Cowboys is intriguing because it could potentially add a lot of talent to the team with one swoop. Losing the home run potential you get from a top five pick causes the most hesitation.
It's a lot to think about.
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Finding a new camp ground
You've got to put down your brackets and look pretty hard to find much going on in the football world lately. The free agent market has died down and teams are retreating to their war rooms to chart out a strategy for the draft.
When I first read the news that the Rams will move their training camp this summer, I didn't really think much of it. Is it really that big of a deal?
I understand the point that proximity to other teams has the potential to improve the way the Rams practice and get ready for the regular season. I even get the sense from the PD article that another year of ugly preseason losses won't be viewed favorably by the powers that be. I can only imagine the reaction from what's left of the fans. If they really think that moving training camp is going to make the Rams a better football team, then by all means go for it.
Mostly I wondered about the move from a marketing perspective. (guess what my background is?) Will empty fields at Rams Park leave fans feeling abandoned? Somehow, I kind of doubt it. But with the talk of a move to Wisconsin, I wonder if the team's not missing an opportunity to expand their footprint outside of the Metro area. I live in Springfield and grew up at the Lake of the Ozarks, two fairly populous areas of the state outside of STL and KC. In either place, you're never more than a few feet away from a Chiefs flag or bumper sticker or jersey. The restaurants and bars advertise Chiefs games on big vinyl banners. The rest hold the Rams in approximately the same regard as the Blues, acknowledged so as not to miss them. I'm not as familiar with the situation in IL, but I can't imagine the Rams garnering too much appeal outside of the Metro area with fans also having the Bears or the next door Colts to root for.
I can't help but wonder if there's at least some opportunity for the Rams to grow their fan base and expand their footprint by holding training camp at a location like Missouri State in Springfield, MO. Obviously, since I live here and am a Rams fan, I would love to see the team here each summer. But even if I lived in North Platte, Nebraska, I'd still make the same case.
Now, in terms of the media market it might not make all that much of a difference, i.e. there's a lot more economic muscle for an audience concentrated in the Metro area than there is for an outstate fanbase. And with a national TV contract, NFL teams don't have to depend on the regional media to the same extent the Cardinals or Blues do. However, a season ticket buyer's a season ticket buyer. My father-in-law gets Chiefs season tickets (I still love him anyway) and treks up to KC, which takes a lot longer to drive to than STL, for each home game. Thus, if the price is right for such a move, I'd think it would only be to the Rams advantage.
Of course, winning will bring in fans better than anything, so ultimately that factors heaviest in the decision of where to move training camp...and whether or not fans support such a move.
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New approaches to old problems
Now here's an interesting approach to brining in a fullback, something we discussed briefly yesterday.
The Eagles, those wacky Eagles, have signed free agent DT Dan Klecko to compete for the fullback job. That's not a typo, which is something of a minor miracle in and of itself for a hunt and peck typist such as myself. Klecko is 5'11" 275 lbs, which would make him a beast of fullback.
Klecko sat out last season after being cut by the Colts. He made his presence known and probably gave someone in Philly the idea when he caught a TD pass in the AFC Championship that put the Colts in the Super Bowl a year ago.
######
Could this be the WR we've been looking for? The Redskins waived 25-year-old Ole Miss product Mike Espy. Espy was well considered by the Gibbs regime in Washington, but ruptured his patellar tendon in his right knee in training camp last summer, ending his season before it even began. According to reports at Rotoworld, Al Saunders might be interested in giving him a look, if he's healthy, in camp this season. Low risk, potential upside, sounds like a good move to me.
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